Oh, I'm drawing a divination stick that's supposed to predict my future. But I'm not at a Chinese temple. I'm at a bar in Beijing.These divination bars are popping up across major Chinese cities where you can order a splash of cocktail with a sight of fortune telling your palate. How should I say. The bar business has been declining, but spiritual buys are on the rise.The so-called metaphysics economy, including tarot card, reading, astrology, zodiac prediction, energy healing is one segment of the Chinese ...

Core Insights - Arm Holdings (ARM) faces increasing risks of slower growth in China due to the country's shift towards RISC-V architecture, which contributed 19% of ARM's total sales in fiscal 2025, with revenues from China rising only 7.5% year over year [1][7] Group 1: Market Dynamics - China's ambition to localize its semiconductor ecosystem is driving the promotion of RISC-V as an alternative to Arm's proprietary models, offering cost advantages and design flexibility [2] - Major Chinese tech firms, including Alibaba Cloud, Huawei, Tencent, and ZTE, are backing RISC-V, which raises competitive pressure on ARM's presence in China [3][7] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - NVIDIA and AMD are closely monitoring China's shift to RISC-V, as it poses a threat to their market positions in AI hardware and server chips [4][5] - AMD's EPYC server chips directly compete with China's new Lingyu RISC-V server chip, indicating potential market share erosion for AMD if RISC-V adoption accelerates [5] Group 3: Financial Performance - ARM's stock has gained 18% year to date, outperforming the industry's 5% rally, but it trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 31.5, significantly higher than the industry's 8.1 [6][8] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for ARM's earnings has been declining over the past 60 days, reflecting potential challenges ahead [10]

Investment Rating - Industry View: In-Line [5] Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is experiencing unprecedented demand driven by AI advancements and geopolitical tensions [3][5] - China's AI semiconductor market is expected to see significant growth, with local GPU revenue projected to reach Rmb287 billion by 2027 [21][19] - The overall AI semiconductor market is anticipated to deliver over 30% CAGR from 2023 to 2030, with inference AI semiconductors growing at 55% CAGR [78][77] Summary by Sections China AI Semi Demand and Supply - The top six companies' capital expenditures are forecasted to grow 62% YoY to Rmb373 billion [10] - China's GPU self-sufficiency ratio was 34% in 2024 and is expected to reach 82% by 2027 [16] - The total addressable market (TAM) for China's cloud AI is projected to be US$48 billion by 2027 [18] Semiconductor Solutions and Technology Trends - Moore's Law is expected to continue with chip scaling to 3nm/2nm for better power efficiency [78] - Advanced packaging technologies like CoWoS and SoIC are being utilized to increase data speed and memory bandwidth [78] - The EDA market in China is projected to grow at a 12% CAGR from 2023 to 2030, reaching US$3.3 billion [29] Investment Opportunities - AI semiconductors are expected to account for approximately 34% of TSMC's revenue by 2027 [148] - The demand for custom AI semiconductors is increasing, driven by major cloud service providers and tech companies [120][121] - The global semiconductor market size may reach US$1 trillion by 2030, with AI semiconductors being a major growth driver [59]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the China Internet sector, particularly focusing on AI applications and their monetization potential. Core Insights - The report highlights the steady engagement trends in AI applications, with significant growth in daily token usage and monetization strategies across various platforms. It emphasizes the competitive pricing of AI models and the increasing adoption of AI functionalities in existing applications. Summary by Sections AI Adoption and Engagement - Key investor focuses include rising use cases for AI across both consumer (to-C) and business (to-B) applications, with notable engagement from platforms like DeepSeek and Bytedance's Doubao, which reported a daily token usage of 16.4 trillion in May 2025, a 29% month-over-month increase [1] - The overall top 400 mobile apps saw an 8% year-over-year increase in total time spent in May 2025, with Douyin's main app engagement up 23% year-over-year [1][6] Monetization Strategies - The report notes steady progress in AI monetization, particularly with Kuaishou's Kling achieving an Annualized Revenue Run Rate (ARR) surpassing US$100 million, and other companies also reporting scalable ARR for their AI products [1][6] - Subscription-based productivity tools and advertising-based AI search engines are highlighted as key monetization avenues, with Alibaba's Quark and Baidu's AI chatbots expected to leverage adtech for improved transaction capabilities [1] Competitive Pricing and Model Developments - The report discusses the competitive pricing landscape, with Kuaishou's Kling 2.1 version offering a significant cost reduction of 60-80% compared to its predecessor, and ByteDance's Seedance 1.0 outperforming Google's video generation model [1][6] - The report also mentions the advancements in multi-modal capabilities and the launch of various AI models by leading companies, indicating a strong competitive environment in the AI sector [1][6] Engagement Trends Across Verticals - Engagement in eCommerce platforms accelerated to 10% year-over-year in May, with JD's time spent increasing by 87% year-over-year, driven by food delivery initiatives [1] - Social engagement remained stable with a 6% year-over-year increase, while gaming engagement picked up to 6% year-over-year in May [1][6] Stock Preferences and Recommendations - The report recommends a dual-pronged approach to stock picking, emphasizing defensive sub-sectors and domestic policy beneficiaries with discounted valuations. Preferred stocks include Tencent in gaming, JD in eCommerce, and Kuaishou for AI application monetization [1][6]

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Summary of Perfect Corp (PERF) FY Conference Call - June 11, 2025 Company Overview - Perfect Corp is a software company operating in the beauty and fashion industry, providing both B2B software solutions and B2C applications available on iOS and Android [1][2] - Founded in 2015, the company has over 380 employees, primarily based in Taiwan [1] Revenue Distribution - North America accounts for over 50% of revenue, with Europe contributing about 25-30%, and the rest of the world, mainly Japan, making up around 20% [2][36] - China represents only 2-3% of total revenue [36] Business Model - The company operates on four pillars: AI skin, beauty, fashion, and generative AI [3] - B2B business model is based on annual contracts influenced by modules, geography, and the number of SKUs [5][6] - B2C operates on a freemium model with a recent increase in premium subscription costs to $79 per year [7][8] Client Base and Growth - Services over 800 brand clients, including major names like Burberry, Shiseido, and Estee Lauder [9] - The number of SKUs supported has grown from 132,000 to 891,000 over recent years [10] - The company has seen a significant increase in key customers, with 145 clients paying over $50,000 annually [10] Recent Acquisition - Acquired Wana, a software company specializing in virtual try-on for luxury fashion items, enhancing Perfect Corp's offerings in clothing and accessories [11][50] Financial Performance - The company has a market cap of approximately $190 million and $165 million in cash [17][18] - Historical growth rates were around 12-13%, with expectations of 13.5-14.5% growth for the current year [18] - Gross margins are approximately 78%, with a slight decrease from 80% due to B2C costs [19] Challenges and Market Conditions - The B2B segment has faced growth challenges, dropping from over 30% to an estimated 13-14.5% due to economic factors and reduced spending by clients [26][27][47] - The B2C segment is still relatively small, with about 1 million paying subscribers compared to larger competitors [32][46] Future Outlook - The company plans to continue investing in R&D and marketing to drive growth, particularly in AI and virtual try-on technologies [28][29] - Management believes that economic recovery will lead to increased investment in software by B2B clients, positively impacting Perfect Corp's growth [47][48] Strategic Considerations - The board is considering options for cash utilization, including potential dividends, buybacks, and M&A opportunities [21][33] - The company maintains a strong position in the B2B market with established relationships, while also seeking to expand its B2C presence [39][40] Conclusion - Perfect Corp is positioned for growth in the beauty and fashion tech space, leveraging its unique software solutions and expanding client base, despite facing challenges in the current economic climate [18][27]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Tencent, NetEase, Alibaba, Kuaishou, and Bilibili, indicating a favorable outlook for these companies [8][9][10]. Core Insights - Content consumption in the gaming and entertainment sectors has shown resilience compared to goods and services year-to-date, creating a high entry barrier for new competitors, benefiting established players like Tencent and NetEase [2][3]. - The outlook for AI has been tempered by lower-than-expected capital expenditure and cloud revenue growth, but confidence is expected to return with improved user statistics and cloud growth acceleration [2][3]. - E-commerce remains highly competitive, with the 618 shopping festival seen as a pivotal moment for food delivery services, impacting the competitive landscape [2][3]. Summary by Sections Investment Preferences - The report favors sub-sectors with higher earnings visibility and less exposure to macroeconomic conditions, particularly online games, with Tencent expected to benefit from robust earnings growth driven by popular titles and new launches [3][8]. - NetEase is also highlighted for its recovery in mobile game growth and new game launches, while Alibaba is noted for potential cloud growth acceleration that could enhance its AI valuation [3][8]. - Bilibili has been upgraded due to improved margin outlook and resilient performance in games and advertising, while Kuaishou is recognized for its growth visibility in ads and attractive valuation [3][8]. Company Valuations - Tencent's target price is set at HKD630.00, reflecting a 22% upside from its current price of HKD515.00, with a PE ratio of 20.1x for 2025 [9][24]. - NetEase's target price is USD150.00, indicating a 17% upside from USD128.63, with a PE ratio of 17.0x for 2025 [9][24]. - Alibaba's target price is USD176.00, suggesting a 47% upside from USD119.96, with a PE ratio of 17.0x for 2025 [9][24]. - Kuaishou's target price is HKD75.00, representing a 38% upside from HKD54.50, with a PE ratio of 15.0x for 2025 [9][24]. - Bilibili's target price is USD22.50, indicating a 22% upside from USD18.48, with a PE ratio of 27.1x for 2025 [9][24].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Attractive" rating to the overall China advertising industry and an "In-Line" rating to the Greater China Media sector [8]. Core Insights - The 2025 growth forecast for the China advertising industry has been raised from 7% to 11% year-over-year, with online ads expected to grow by 12% and offline ads by only 1% [22][21]. - Key players expected to outperform include Tencent, Alibaba, and Meituan, while Weibo, Baidu, and iQIYI are anticipated to lose market share [7][4]. Summary by Sections Industry Growth Forecast - The China advertising industry is projected to reach Rmb 1.8 trillion in 2025, reflecting an 11.6% year-over-year growth [3]. - Online advertising is expected to grow by 12% year-over-year, with significant increases in short video ads (21%), social ads (12%), and e-commerce ads (10.8%) [23][22]. Competitive Landscape - Short video and social ads are leading the market, with Douyin, WeChat, and Tencent Video Accounts expected to gain preference among advertisers [4]. - Key share gainers include Douyin, Tencent (WeChat, Tencent Video Accounts), and Meituan, while key share losers are Weibo, Baidu, and iQIYI [4]. Demand Trends - Advertisers are concentrating ad budgets on fewer platforms, with a preference for online ads and a focus on customer purchases rather than brand recognition [5][30]. - The average expected growth in ad budgets for 2025 is 2.1%, with most sectors showing improved expectations compared to 2024 [21][13]. AI Improvements - The adoption of AI-powered advertising tools has increased significantly, with 83% of advertisers using some form of AI in their campaigns [70]. - AI tools are reported to enhance advertising efficiency, improve ROI by 4.8%-8.6%, and expand reach without decreasing ROI [76][75]. Stock Recommendations - Key stock ideas include Tencent, Alibaba, and Meituan as "Overweight" (OW) recommendations, while Kuaishou, Bilibili, JD, and others are rated as "Equal-Weight" (EW) [7][84]. - Weibo is rated as "Underweight" (UW) due to its expected decline in market share [7].

US-China Trade & Tech Restrictions - Expectation of a shift from broad-based sanctions on semiconductors to more targeted measures [1] - US imposed export restrictions on H-20 chips potentially impacting $4.5 billion in sales [2] - China restricted magnets impacting electric vehicles and smartphones [2] - US retaliated by blocking Leap One SEE engines used by CarMax jets [3] - Specific Chinese companies compete directly with American counterparts in chips, aerospace, defense, critical minerals, and telecommunications [5] - China is the leading trade partner to over 140 countries [7] National Security & Industry Competition - Key verticals where Chinese competition poses a direct threat to American technological leadership include chips, aerospace and defense, critical minerals supply chains, and telecommunications [5][6] - Some Chinese e-commerce and entertainment companies have been embroiled in national security concerns [7][8] - China is disaggregating large businesses to facilitate targeted sanctions [9] Supply Chain & Manufacturing - US needs to unlock natural resources to ensure American national security [14][15] - Resurgence of American aerospace and defense is attributed to the Trump administration's efforts to remove barriers to growth [13][14] - Reinforcement of American supply chains is needed to reduce dependence on Chinese inputs [12]

New Features and Tools - Guru Focus introduced a Mode Score and a Tariff Score to help investors assess a company's long-term competitive advantage and resilience to tariffs, respectively [5][6][7][12] - Guru Focus added a geographic revenue filter to the screener, allowing users to filter companies by revenue source (US, Canada, Europe, etc) [38][39][40] Mode Score Analysis - A good Mode Score is considered 8 or above, on a scale of 1 to 10 [14] - Amazon has a wide Mode Score of 9 due to its dominant market position, strong network effect, customer loyalty, and economies of scale [16][17] - Berkshire Hathaway has the highest Mode Score of 10, although the difference between 10 and 9 is not considered significant [19] - Microsoft has a robust wide mode due to its dominant market position, strong brand, extensive network effect, high switching costs, valuable IP, and consistent innovation [11] Tariff Score Analysis - A good Tariff Score is considered 8 or above, on a scale of 1 to 10 [14] - Tesla has a Tariff Score of 4, indicating it is more impacted by tariffs, while Ford is ranked slightly higher [16] - Amazon's vast global supply chain and logistics network provides flexibility to mitigate tariff impacts, enhancing its resilience [17] Backtesting and Screening - Guru Focus offers backtesting functionality, allowing users to test investment strategies based on various filters and rankings [41][42][43][44] - The all-in-one screener allows filtering for companies with high Mode Score and high Tariff Resilience Score [16] - Users can download screener results to Excel or CSV files [27] Investment Philosophy and Market Views - Guru Focus emphasizes investing in high-quality companies with consistent business and high profit margins [20][21][68] - Guru Focus believes growth and profitability are more important than valuation, but does not want to buy stocks that are extremely overvalued [29][67][68] - The presenter personally owns gold due to concerns about the US national debt, which is growing faster than GDP and consuming a significant portion (20%) of government tax income [33][34][35] - Guru Focus warns against value traps, which are companies that appear undervalued but have underlying financial distress or declining growth [61][72][73]