Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on aluminum and lithium sectors while being less bullish on steel names, indicating a preference for aluminum and lithium investments [1][2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the need for steel supply reform, anticipates a near-term bottom for lithium prices, and expects potential corporate actions from aluminum companies in China [1]. - It highlights that aluminum and lithium stocks have performed well, while steel stocks have lagged behind, prompting a reassessment of investment strategies [1]. - The report ranks the sectors in the following order: aluminum > lithium > copper > steel > gold > battery > thermal coal > cement [1]. Summary by Sections Aluminum - The aluminum sector is viewed as undervalued relative to mid-term fundamentals, with expectations for a re-rating driven by a cap on smelting capacity and improved margins [2]. - Shareholder return policies from companies like Hongqiao and Chalco are generating investor interest, with Chalco initiating share buybacks [2]. Steel - The anticipated steel supply reform has been delayed, with internal communications between local governments and steel mills ongoing [6]. - Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows a decline in pig iron output of approximately 3% year-over-year in May 2025, contrasting with a 4% increase reported by MySteel [6]. Lithium - The report suggests that lithium prices are nearing a short-term trough at Rmb60,000 per ton, with expectations of production cuts to stabilize the market [8]. - Investors are concerned about the potential restart of suspended supply if prices rebound to Rmb70,000 per ton, alongside ongoing capacity additions in the pipeline [8].

Investment Rating - The report presents a positive outlook on the AI Capex sector in China, with specific stock recommendations for various segments including copper, power equipment, humanoid robots, autonomous driving, and smart manufacturing [9][10][47]. Core Insights - China's AI Capex is expected to reach RMB600-700 billion by 2025, driven by government policies and increased spending from major telecom and internet firms [1][29]. - The report emphasizes the importance of non-IT and energy-related AI Capex, focusing on the value chain that includes power, metals, and applications [1][29]. - Significant growth is anticipated in various applications of AI, including humanoid robots, autonomous driving, and smart manufacturing, with respective CAGRs of 171%, 52%, and 2.4% from 2024 to 2030 [40][44][42]. Summary by Sections AI Capex Overview - China's AI Capex is projected to rise significantly, reaching RMB600-700 billion by 2025, supported by government initiatives and major industry players [1][29]. - The global data center investment is expected to grow to US$800 billion by 2030, with China playing a crucial role [1][29]. Power and Power Equipment - China's data centers are forecasted to consume 277 TWh of electricity by 2030, representing 2.2% of total power demand [30]. - The power equipment market related to AI is expected to grow at an 18% CAGR from 2024 to 2030, driven by strong grid investments and rising demand from renewable energy [31][32]. Copper and Other Metals - Data centers are projected to account for 4-6% of China's copper demand by 2030, with total copper demand from data centers estimated at 675-1,048 kt [33]. - The report highlights the tight global copper supply and the expected increase in aluminum demand due to AI and energy transitions [34]. Cooling and Power Supply - The liquid cooling market for data centers is expected to grow at a 57% CAGR from 2024 to 2030, driven by its efficiency compared to air cooling [36][37]. - Diesel engine demand for data centers is projected to increase by 50% YoY in 2025, with a market size of RMB11 billion [39]. Humanoid Robots - Humanoid robot shipments are expected to grow at a CAGR of 171% from 2024 to 2030, with global sales projected to reach 1 million units by 2030 [40]. - The BOM cost of humanoid robots is anticipated to decline significantly, making them more accessible [40]. Smart Manufacturing - The smart manufacturing sector is expected to recover with a 2.4% YoY growth in 2025, driven by automation and AI integration [42]. - The report identifies Inovance as a key player in the industrial automation market [42]. Autonomous Driving and eVTOL - The global LiDAR market is projected to reach RMB80 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 52% from 2024 to 2030 [44]. - The eVTOL market is expected to grow from RMB1 billion in 2024 to RMB10 billion by 2030, with a CAGR of 63% [45]. Smart Home - The smart home market in China is expected to grow at an 11% CAGR from 2024 to 2030, driven by advancements in IoT and AI technologies [46].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Asia Materials, specifically copper and aluminium sectors - **Market Sentiment**: Easing of recession fears and a recent rally in shares of copper and aluminium companies, with declines of 11% and 10% respectively over the past five trading days, compared to -2% for the cement sector and -8% for HSCEI [1][5] Core Insights - **Recession Concerns**: Global recession fears appear overblown, especially after the US President's decision to pause reciprocal tariffs for 90 days, suggesting a potential rebound in commodity prices and share prices for copper and aluminium [1][5] - **Supply-Demand Dynamics**: Positive supply-demand dynamics expected to support a rebound in commodity prices, with month-on-month improvements in operating rates for copper and aluminium in March due to seasonal demand recovery [1][5] - **Government Stimulus**: New government stimulus in energy transition, consumption, or the property sector could further support demand growth for industrial metals [1][5] Company-Specific Insights - **MMG Limited**: Upgraded from Hold to Buy due to high earnings sensitivity to copper price movements. Expected year-on-year earnings growth in 2025 driven by the ramp-up of Chalcobamba [2][5] - **Zijin Mining**: Maintained Buy ratings for both H/A shares, with a target price of HKD21.00 for H-shares and RMB21.90 for A-shares, reflecting stable output growth and M&A efforts [2][29] - **CMOC**: Maintained Buy ratings with target prices unchanged at HKD7.60 for H-shares and RMB8.60 for A-shares, supported by strong fundamentals [2][29] - **Jiangxi Copper**: Maintained Reduce rating due to ongoing headwinds from lower TC/RC prices, with target prices of HKD10.10 for H-shares and RMB17.30 for A-shares [2][30] - **China Hongqiao**: Maintained Buy rating with a target price of HKD17.10, supported by strong fundamentals and an attractive dividend yield of approximately 10% [2][30] Additional Important Points - **Copper Supply Constraints**: Mine supply remains constrained, indicated by negative spot TC/RC prices. China's tariffs on the US are expected to reduce scrap copper imports, impacting refined copper production [1][5] - **Aluminium Operating Capacity**: Operating capacity for aluminium is nearing the 45 million tonnes cap, indicating potential shortages if demand increases due to new stimulus [1][5] - **Market Data**: Key market data and forecasts for copper and aluminium prices, sales, and production metrics were provided, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [6][31][33] Risks and Valuation - **Valuation Risks**: Risks include geopolitical conflicts, production delays, and fluctuations in metal prices. For Zijin Mining, downside risks include delays in new capacities and higher production costs due to inflation [29][30] - **Earnings Forecasts**: MMG is expected to deliver significant earnings growth, while Jiangxi Copper faces a decline in earnings due to lower contract TC/RC prices [31][32][30] This summary encapsulates the key insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of the copper and aluminium sectors within the Asia Materials industry.