Core Viewpoint - ConocoPhillips reported fourth-quarter earnings that fell short of analyst expectations, resulting in a more than 3% decline in share price during intra-day trading [1]. Financial Performance - The company posted earnings per share of $1.02, missing Wall Street estimates of $1.18 [2]. - Production for the quarter was 2.32 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, an increase of 137 thousand barrels per day year-over-year. However, after adjusting for acquisitions and asset divestitures, production declined by 63 thousand barrels per day, or 2.6%, compared to the prior-year period [2]. - Cash flow from operations for the quarter was $4.3 billion [2]. Future Outlook - ConocoPhillips reiterated its 2026 capital spending plan of approximately $12 billion and maintained its adjusted operating cost outlook of $10.2 billion, consistent with prior guidance [3]. - For 2026, the company forecasts production between 2.33 and 2.36 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. First-quarter output is expected to range from 2.30 to 2.34 million barrels per day, factoring in weather-related downtime [3].

ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 05, 2026 12:00 PM ET Company ParticipantsAndy O'Brien - CFO and EVP of Strategy and CommercialDevin McDermott - Managing Director and Head of North American Integrated Oil and Exploration & Production ResearchGuy Baber - VP of Investor RelationsJames West - Managing Director and Head of Energy & PowerKevin McCurdy - Managing DirectorKirk Johnson - EVP of Global Operations and Technical FunctionsNeil Singhvi Mehta - Head of Americas Natural Resources E ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, ConocoPhillips produced 2,320,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, consistent with production guidance [12] - Adjusted earnings per share were $1.02, with cash from operations (CFO) amounting to $4.3 billion [12] - Capital expenditures for the year totaled $12.6 billion, with $3 billion spent in the fourth quarter [12] - The company returned $9 billion to shareholders in 2025, representing 45% of CFO [12][13] - Cash and short-term investments increased to $7.4 billion, with net debt reduced by nearly $2 billion [13] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Production grew by 2.5% in 2025, with significant reductions in capital and operating costs [7] - The company improved drilling and completion efficiencies by over 15% in 2025 [16] - The Lower 48 segment is expected to deliver more production for less capital, benefiting from high-quality asset bases [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company anticipates a production guidance of 2.23 million to 2.26 million barrels of oil equivalent per day for 2026 [15] - The cash flow breakeven is expected to decline into the low $30 per barrel WTI range by the end of the decade [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - ConocoPhillips aims to achieve a $1 billion reduction in capital spending and operating costs in 2026 while growing production [9] - The company is focused on organic growth rather than mergers and acquisitions, emphasizing its strong resource position [22][23] - Major projects are expected to drive a $7 billion free cash flow inflection by 2029, with incremental free cash flow anticipated from 2026 through 2028 [11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's strong financial position and ability to return capital to shareholders while maintaining an investment-grade balance sheet [8][13] - The company is optimistic about the long-term demand for oil and gas, particularly with upcoming LNG projects and the Willow development [63] Other Important Information - The company successfully integrated Marathon Oil, exceeding acquisition case metrics and realizing $1 billion in one-time benefits [8] - The organic reserve replacement ratio was just under 100% for 2025, with a three-year average of 106% [13][87] Q&A Session Questions and Answers Question: Industry consolidation and Conoco's role - Management indicated that the company has completed its major M&A activities and is now focused on organic growth opportunities within its portfolio [22][23] Question: Update on Venezuela and Citgo sale - Management emphasized the priority of recovering owed amounts from Venezuela and noted no changes regarding the Citgo sale [25][26] Question: Evaluation of international opportunities - Management discussed ongoing efforts to improve fiscal conditions in Libya and the potential for new opportunities in Equatorial Guinea [31][33] Question: Alaska exploration program objectives - The exploration program aims to identify resource opportunities that can tie back into existing infrastructure, enhancing production capacity [36][39] Question: Well productivity trends in Lower 48 - Management highlighted strong productivity improvements in the Delaware Basin and Eagle Ford, driven by technology and optimization strategies [42][45] Question: Breakeven trajectory and capital expenditure assumptions - Current breakeven is in the mid-$40s, with expectations to lower it to the low $30s by 2030 as new projects come online [48][52] Question: Free cash flow contributions from LNG projects - Management expects significant contributions from LNG projects in 2027 and 2028, with a focus on maintaining competitive pricing [77][79]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In 2025, ConocoPhillips reported a production growth of 2.5% on a pro forma basis, while achieving a return of 45% of cash flow from operations (CFO) to shareholders [4][10] - The company generated $1.02 per share in adjusted earnings and $4.3 billion of CFO in the fourth quarter [10] - Capital expenditures for the fourth quarter were $3 billion, totaling $12.6 billion for the full year [10][12] - Cash balances increased by $1 billion, and net debt was reduced by nearly $2 billion, highlighting a strong financial position [11][12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Lower 48 segment showed improved drilling and completion efficiencies, with a more than 15% increase in 2025 [14] - Production guidance for 2026 is set at 2.23 million to 2.26 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, indicating modest growth [13] - The company expects to continue delivering more production for less capital in the Lower 48, benefiting from high-quality asset bases [13][14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - ConocoPhillips closed over $3 billion in asset sales during 2025, progressing towards a $5 billion divestiture target [11] - The organic reserve replacement ratio for 2025 was just under 100%, with a trailing three-year average of 106% [11][88] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The primary focus for 2026 is to achieve a combined reduction of $1 billion in capital spending and operating costs while growing production [6][12] - The company aims to maintain a top-quartile dividend growth rate, with expectations of free cash flow breakeven declining into the low $30 per barrel WTI range by the end of the decade [6][12] - ConocoPhillips is investing in diverse major projects to enhance free cash flow generation, anticipating a $7 billion free cash flow inflection by 2029 [9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's resource-rich position amid a maturing US shale industry, emphasizing a focus on organic growth rather than M&A [21][22] - The company is optimistic about the long-term outlook for oil demand, particularly with LNG and Willow projects coming online at a critical time [62] Other Important Information - The company has made significant progress in its LNG strategy, growing its offtake portfolio to approximately 10 million tons per annum [5] - The four major projects underway are expected to drive substantial free cash flow growth through the end of the decade [9] Q&A Session Summary Question: Industry consolidation and Conoco's role - Management indicated that the company has completed its heavy lifting on M&A and is now focused on organic growth opportunities within its portfolio [21][22] Question: Update on Venezuela and Citgo sale - Management reiterated their focus on recovering owed amounts from Venezuela and noted no changes regarding the Citgo sale [25][27] Question: Evaluation of international opportunities - Management discussed ongoing efforts to improve fiscal conditions in Libya and the potential for new opportunities in Equatorial Guinea [30][32] Question: Alaska exploration program objectives - The exploration program aims to identify resource opportunities to extend production capacity at Willow and enhance existing infrastructure [35][36] Question: Trends in well productivity in Lower 48 - Management highlighted strong productivity improvements in the Delaware and Eagle Ford basins, driven by technology and optimization strategies [41][43] Question: Breakeven trajectory and capital expenditure assumptions - Current free cash flow breakeven is in the mid-$40s, with expectations to decline to the low $30s by 2030 as new projects come online [45][51] Question: Free cash flow contribution from LNG projects - Management expects $1 billion annual free cash flow improvement from 2026 to 2028, with significant contributions from LNG projects [76][78]

ConocoPhillips 4Q25 Earnings Conference Call Feb. 5, 2026 Cautionary Statement This presentation contains fouvarol-boshing statements as odefined under the fected securities aws: Forward-looking statements redate to findusling, without limitation, st strateen, budoets, projected revenues, costs and plans, colore coreations and other aspects of our operations and other aspects of our operations or operations or operatio continus, " could," "effort" "esfinate; " expect," "qoulance;" inney," "objective," outco ...

Core Insights - ConocoPhillips (COP) reported Q4 2025 adjusted earnings per share of $1.02, below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.08, and down from $1.98 in the prior year [1][8] - Quarterly revenues were $14.2 billion, a decline from $14.7 billion year-over-year, but exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $13.9 billion [1][8] Production and Sales - Total production averaged 2,320 thousand barrels of oil-equivalent per day (MBoe/d), an increase from 2,183 MBoe/d in the same quarter last year, with 48% being crude oil [3] - Crude oil production rose to 1,115 MBbls/d from 1,070 MBbls/d year-over-year [3] - Natural gas liquids production increased to 413 MBbls/d from 362 MBbls/d, while bitumen production decreased to 123 MBbls/d from 139 MBbls/d [4] - Natural gas production was 4,016 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d), up from 3,674 MMcf/d year-over-year [4] Pricing - Average realized oil equivalent price fell to $42.46 per barrel from $52.37 a year ago [5] - Average realized crude oil price decreased to $60.22 per barrel from $71.04 [5] - Average realized natural gas price dropped to $3.72 per thousand cubic feet from $5.12 [5] - Realized natural gas liquids price fell to $19.02 per barrel from $23.93 [5] Expenses and Financials - Total expenses slightly increased to $11.9 billion from $11.8 billion in the same period of 2024 [6] - Cost of purchased commodities rose to $5.2 billion from $5.1 billion year-over-year [6] - Exploration costs increased to $138 million from $71 million in the comparable period [6] - As of December 31, 2025, ConocoPhillips had $6.5 billion in cash and cash equivalents, with total long-term debt of $22.4 billion and short-term debt of $1.02 billion [7] Future Guidance - For Q1 2026, production is expected to be between 2.30-2.34 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (MMBOED), considering weather-related downtime [10] - For 2026, average production is projected to be between 2.33 and 2.36 MMBOED [10] - Capital expenditures for 2026 are anticipated to be around $12 billion, with adjusted operating costs expected to total about $10.2 billion [11] - ConocoPhillips plans to return approximately 45% of cash flow from operations to shareholders in 2026 [11]

ConocoPhillips reported disappointing fourth-quarter results on February 5, 2026, missing both earnings and revenue estimates as lower oil prices overshadowed production gains from the Marathon Oil acquisition. ...

The oil company's earnings fell in the fourth quarter, and so did the stock Thursday. ...

Core Insights - ConocoPhillips' fourth-quarter earnings decreased due to lower prices, although this was slightly mitigated by an increase in production [1] Financial Performance - The decline in earnings was primarily attributed to lower prices in the market [1] - Higher production levels provided a partial offset to the earnings drop [1]

Financial Performance - Total revenues and other income for Q4 2025 reached $14,185 million, a decrease of 3.7% compared to Q4 2024's $14,737 million[2] - Net income for Q4 2025 was $1,442 million, down 37.4% from $2,306 million in Q4 2024[4] - Basic net income per share for Q4 2025 was $1.17, compared to $1.90 in Q4 2024, reflecting a decline of 38.4%[2] - Total costs and expenses for Q4 2025 were $11,940 million, an increase of 1.5% from $11,767 million in Q4 2024[2] - The company reported a total of $58,944 million in revenues for the full year 2025, up from $54,745 million in 2024, representing an increase of 7.9%[2] - The Lower 48 segment generated $835 million in earnings for Q4 2025, a significant decrease from $1,294 million in Q4 2024[4] - The company’s total equity in earnings of affiliates for Q4 2025 was $283 million, down from $440 million in Q4 2024[2] Tax and Expenses - The effective income tax rate for the consolidated entity in Q4 2025 was 35.8%, compared to 22.3% in Q4 2024[3] - Exploration expenses for Q4 2025 were $138 million, up from $71 million in Q4 2024, indicating a 94.4% increase[2] - Income tax provision for the company was $6 million in Q4 2024, with a total of $21 million for the full year[6] - Depreciation, depletion, and amortization expenses are expected to rise to $11,500 million in 2024 from $9,599 million in 2023, indicating an increase of about 19.9%[9] Assets and Liabilities - Consolidated total assets increased to $122.78 billion by Q4 2024, up from $95.35 billion in Q1 2024[8] - Total current liabilities rose to $12.12 billion in Q4 2024, compared to $10.16 billion in Q1 2024, reflecting a significant increase[8] - The company reported a total equity of $64.80 billion in Q4 2024, an increase from $49.33 billion in Q1 2024[8] - Total liabilities increased to $57.98 billion in Q4 2024, up from $46.02 billion in Q1 2024[8] - Total debt at the end of 2024 is projected to be $24.324 billion, remaining stable compared to $24.324 billion at the end of 2023[15] - The debt-to-capital ratio is expected to remain at 27% throughout 2024, consistent with previous quarters[15] Cash Flow and Investments - Cash flows from operating activities for 2024 are estimated at $19,796 million, compared to $20,124 million in 2023, reflecting a decline of approximately 1.6%[9] - The company reported a net cash used in investing activities of $8,836 million for 2024, which is a decrease from $11,150 million in 2023, showing an improvement of about 20.9%[9] - Cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash at the end of 2024 are projected to be $6,916 million, up from $5,905 million at the end of 2023, representing an increase of approximately 17.1%[9] - The company anticipates a net cash used in financing activities of $10,102 million for 2024, compared to $8,835 million in 2023, reflecting an increase of approximately 14.3%[9] Production and Forecast - Total production for 2024 is projected to be 2,375 MBOED, with a quarterly breakdown of 2,389 in Q1, 2,391 in Q2, and 2,399 in Q3[10] - Crude oil production from consolidated operations is expected to average 1,133 MBD in 2025, with a peak of 1,153 MBD in Q1 2024[10] - Natural gas production is forecasted to reach 4,070 MMCFD in Q1 2025, with a total of 4,065 MMCFD for the full year[10] - Average realized prices for crude oil are anticipated to be $65.62 per BBL in 2025, down from $76.74 per BBL in 2024[10] - The company expects to incur impairments totaling $26 million in 2024, a decrease from $80 million in 2023, indicating a reduction of approximately 67.5%[9] Strategic Plans - The company plans to focus on market expansion and new product development in the upcoming quarters to drive future growth[1] - The company plans to maintain a focus on market expansion and new technology development to enhance production efficiency[12] - The company plans to invest in new technologies, with technology expenses amounting to $137 million in 2024, down from $144 million in 2023[14]