DANI: HAPPY FRIDAY THE 13TH, CPI DATA. 30 MINUTES UNTIL THE START OF THE CASH EQUITY TRADE. MATT MILLER IS ON A WELL DESERVED VACATION. OPEN INTEREST STARTS NOW. DANI: COMING UP, AN INFLATION REPORT CAP IS A BUSY WEEK OF ECONOMIC DATA. CORE CPI RISING IN JANUARY ON HIGHER SERVICING COSTS. THE AI SCARE TRADE CAME FOR A WIDE RANGE OF STOCKS, EVERYTHING LOGISTICS. THAT IS THE LATEST VICTIM. ANOTHER WAVE OF EARNINGS FROM EV'S TO PHARMA AND FOOD. THE LATEST READ ON CORPORATE AMERICA. ONE OF THOSE READS, RIVIAN D ...

Economic Overview - The jobs data for January showed an addition of 130,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate decreasing to 4.3%, both better than expected. However, previous months' job gains were revised down significantly, with 2025's total job additions revised from 584,000 to 181,000, indicating a weaker job market than previously thought [3][4][5]. - Inflation data revealed a Consumer Price Index (CPI) of 2.4% for the headline number and 2.5% for core CPI, which remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, suggesting ongoing inflationary pressures despite a cooler-than-expected report [7][8]. Company Earnings and Stock Performance - Caterpillar (CAT) reported modest earnings growth, with a 3% increase, but has seen a significant rise of 21% since the earnings announcement, driven by capital expenditures from major tech companies [10][12]. - Alphabet is selling debt, including a 100-year bond, to finance its AI expansions, indicating a long-term commitment to AI despite current profitability concerns [13]. - Cisco (CSCO) experienced a 12% drop in stock price post-earnings, despite exceeding earnings guidance, due to margin and cost concerns, although it remains up 19% year-over-year [14]. - Applied Materials (AMAT) saw a 10% increase in stock price following strong earnings and guidance, benefiting from increased spending in the AI sector [15]. Market Trends and Future Outlook - The economic landscape is characterized by uncertainty, with AI investments becoming a significant part of capital expenditures, raising questions about the overall economic stability [9]. - Walmart (WMT) is positioned well in the current market, recently reaching a market cap of over $1 trillion, and is expected to provide insights into consumer spending and technological integration in its upcoming earnings report [28][30].

Core Viewpoint - Palantir's stock has dropped 25.5% over the past month despite reporting a 70% total revenue growth and a 137% increase in U.S. commercial revenues, raising concerns about its high valuation and sustainability [1]. Revenue Growth - Palantir reported a total revenue growth of 70% and a 137% increase in U.S. commercial revenue for Q4 2025 [1]. Valuation Concerns - The company's stock trades at a P/E ratio exceeding 200 and a price-to-sales ratio of 68.77, leading to concerns about its valuation [1]. - UBS has reduced its price target for Palantir from $205 to $180 while maintaining a Neutral rating, citing caution on valuation despite acknowledging the company's strong performance [1]. Investor Sentiment - Retail investor sentiment has shifted from bullish to bearish, with notable discussions on Reddit highlighting concerns about insider selling, political risks, and extreme valuation multiples [1]. - Multiple executives sold shares during the stock's decline, with no insider purchases to indicate confidence at lower prices [1]. Political and Budget Risks - Investors are worried that shifting government spending priorities could threaten Palantir's 66% growth in U.S. government revenues, which heavily depend on Department of Defense contracts [1]. Technical Analysis - Palantir's technical chart shows an RSI of 31.35, indicating it is approaching oversold territory, yet analysts maintain a consensus price target of $176.38, suggesting a potential upside of 32.46% [1]. - The wide range of forecasts for Palantir's fair value, from $50 to $260, reflects significant disagreement among analysts [1]. Comparison with Peers - Snowflake, a peer in data analytics, trades at more modest multiples despite having a similar AI positioning, emphasizing Palantir's premium valuation [1].

Market Overview - U.S. equity markets showed signs of stabilization amid an encouraging inflation report, despite ongoing concerns about the sustainability of the AI boom [1] - Major indexes are experiencing a cautious "wait-and-see" approach ahead of the long holiday weekend [1] Midday Market Performance - The S&P 500 remained nearly unchanged at around 6,819, following one of its worst single-day performances since last Thanksgiving [2] - The Nasdaq Composite slipped by 0.3% to approximately 22,597, impacted by significant losses in major tech stocks [2] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 124 points, or 0.25%, trading near 49,451 [2] Market Momentum - There is a distinct rotation out of high-growth technology stocks into defensive sectors, with the equal-weighted S&P 500 gaining nearly 5% year-to-date [3] - Investors are favoring "asset-heavy" and value-oriented plays in Consumer Staples and Utilities as the leadership of the "Magnificent Seven" appears to be fracturing [3] Economic Data - The January Consumer Price Index (CPI) report indicated that headline inflation slowed to 2.4% annually, down from 2.7% in December, marking the lowest level in nearly five years [4] - Core inflation also eased to 2.5%, reviving hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut as early as next month [4] Treasury Yields and Market Sentiment - Treasury yields retreated, with the 10-year note falling to 4.06%, although the market remains divided on the Fed's next move [5] - The CME Group's FedWatch tool indicates a 40% chance that the central bank will hold rates steady, citing a robust labor market [5] Upcoming Events - Investors are preparing for a shortened trading week due to the Presidents' Day holiday, with high-profile earnings from Walmart scheduled for next week [6] Major Corporate News - Apple shares fell by 5.0% due to reports of delays in its AI-driven Siri upgrade, contributing to downward pressure on the Nasdaq [7] - Nvidia's stock decreased by 1.6% amid concerns over the revenue returns from significant capital expenditures by hyperscalers [7] - Applied Materials surged by 14.1% after reporting quarterly profits that exceeded analyst estimates, attributed to investments in AI-ready chip infrastructure [8] - Rivian's stock soared by 24% after reporting a smaller-than-expected loss and stronger revenue guidance [9] - Airbnb rose by 6% on strong booking growth, while DraftKings plummeted by 15% due to a lukewarm revenue forecast [9] - Pinterest's stock tanked following underwhelming guidance, and Cisco remains under pressure after a 12% drop earlier in the week due to rising memory costs [9]

Market Overview - Overseas stock markets are lower, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down by -0.40%, China's Shanghai Composite down -1.26%, and Japan's Nikkei Stock 225 down -1.21% [1] - The markets are pricing in a 10% chance for a -25 basis point rate cut at the next policy meeting on March 17-18 [1] Earnings Reports - Q4 earnings season shows positive results, with 76% of the 358 S&P 500 companies that have reported beating expectations [2] - S&P earnings growth is expected to increase by +8.4% in Q4, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year growth [2] - Excluding the Magnificent Seven megacap technology stocks, Q4 earnings are expected to rise by +4.6% [2] Inflation Data - US January CPI rose +2.4% year-over-year, weaker than the expected +2.5% and the smallest increase in 7 months [3] - January core CPI rose +2.5% year-over-year, matching expectations and marking the smallest increase in 4.75 years [3] Stock Movements - Stocks initially moved lower, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 hitting 1-week lows due to concerns over AI disrupting various sectors [4] - Stock indexes recovered from early losses, with a rebound in chip makers leading the market, particularly Applied Materials which jumped +10% after reporting stronger-than-expected Q1 adjusted EPS [5][9] - Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are climbing, with Bitcoin up more than +4% and Coinbase Global up more than +14% [10] Sector Performance - Metal companies are under pressure due to reports of the Trump administration working to narrow tariffs on steel and aluminum products, with Century Aluminum down more than -6% [11] - Rivian Automotive is up more than +19% after reporting Q4 revenue of $1.29 billion, exceeding consensus expectations [12] - Arista Networks is up more than +5% after reporting Q4 revenue of $2.49 billion, better than consensus [13] - Airbnb is up more than +4% after reporting Q4 gross booking value of $20.4 billion, exceeding expectations [14] Company Forecasts - DraftKings is down more than -12% after forecasting full-year revenue of $6.5 billion to $6.9 billion, below consensus [15] - Expedia Group is down more than -5% despite better-than-expected Q4 earnings, as AI poses a long-term risk for the online travel industry [16]

Stock Market Today: Dow Slips After CPI Inflation Surprise | Investor's Business DailyBREAKING: [Core CPI Inflation Falls To 2.5%, Lowest Since 2021]---The Dow Jones Industrial Average and other major stock indexes turned slightly lower Friday morning, unable to gain traction from the cooler-than-expected January consumer price index inflation report. On the stock market today, DraftKings (DKNG) plunged after the company's earnings report while investors sent Applied Materials (AMAT) shares soaring. The Dow ...

Group 1 - Applied Materials increased by 10.8% as the company raised its earnings forecast [1] - Rivian surged by 25.1% with an expected 53% increase in delivery volume by 2026 [1] - Airbnb rose by 6.3%, achieving the highest growth rate in Q4 bookings in two years [1] Group 2 - Roku's stock jumped by 15.8% after Rosenblatt raised its target price to $118, indicating a potential increase of 42% [1] - Pinterest fell by 22.8% due to Q4 performance falling short of expectations [1] - DraftKings declined by 12.0% as its revenue outlook for 2026 did not meet expectations [1]

RT Danny Kunwoong Park (@ParkKunwoong)ICYMI: Here's a quick news recap from today's US session @TheBlock__👇🚀JPMorgan remains 'positive' on crypto in 2026, sees bitcoin support level at $77,000.⚠️SEC Chair Paul Atikins calls prediction markets a "huge issue" with potentially overlapping jurisdiction.🌁Hyperlane is extending Wrapped Bitcoin to Solana🇺🇸Crypto market structure bill is hung up on two major sticking points — stablecoin yield and Trump's conflicts of interest in crypto, industry sources told The Bl ...

Market Overview - The Nasdaq 100 has declined by more than 1.5%, with significant losses from major companies like Apple, Applovin, and Cisco [2] - A notable drop in a closely watched software ETF, down nearly 3%, indicates a reversal of recent gains [2] - Bitcoin has also seen a decline of 3%, approaching $65,000 per token, reflecting a broader sell-off in risk assets [2] Technology Sector - The tech sector experienced a sell-off due to profitability concerns, which has raised alarms about potential broader risks in the market [3] - Cisco's recent quarterly report revealed a weak margin outlook, contributing to Wall Street's anxiety regarding the tech industry's future [4][91] Commodities and Energy - Precious metals, including gold, have fallen, attributed to traders liquidating positions to cover equity losses [5] - Oil prices have been volatile, influenced by developments in U.S.-Iran relations and ongoing tensions in the energy market [6][7] - U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright's visit to Venezuela highlights potential opportunities for U.S. companies like Chevron to expand operations, with expectations of increased production over the next 18 to 24 months [20][104] U.S. Government and Venezuela Relations - The U.S. government is engaging with Venezuela to improve business conditions, with discussions around new licenses for oil companies to operate in the country [18][19] - The U.S. aims to reduce the influence of adversarial nations like China and Russia in Venezuela, promoting a more favorable environment for American companies [24][25] Banking Sector - The banking sector is facing pressure, with regional banks trading lower despite a strong year-to-date performance [71] - There is a narrative around AI's impact on the banking industry, with banks viewing it as a potential tailwind rather than a headwind [76] - M&A activity in the banking sector is expected to continue, driven by the need for scale to compete with non-bank competitors [81][84] Cisco's Performance - Cisco's stock has dropped significantly due to a weak profit margin outlook, overshadowing previous strong performance [91][100] - The company faces challenges from high memory prices, which have impacted margins more than anticipated [93] - Analysts suggest that Cisco's position in the public sector remains strong, despite potential cutbacks in government spending [97]

Market Overview - US stock futures showed mixed signals following a broad market sell-off, with S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures near flatline, while Nasdaq 100 futures also remained little changed after significant selling pressure on tech stocks [1] - The market is reacting to a cooler-than-expected inflation reading, which is influencing expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate policies [1][2] Inflation Data - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicated a 0.2% increase in consumer prices for January compared to the previous month, and a 2.4% increase year-on-year, which was lower than economists' expectations [2][5] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year, aligning with expectations [6] Federal Reserve Outlook - The inflation readings have shifted traders' outlook for potential rate cuts, now pricing in a 51% chance of at least one 25 basis-point cut by the June meeting, while the March meeting is expected to maintain current rates with less than 10% likelihood of a cut [7] Company Earnings and Stock Movements - Rivian's stock surged nearly 20% following a fourth-quarter earnings beat, with the company on track to deliver its R2 midsize model before summer [5][15] - Applied Materials saw its stock climb over 10% after beating Wall Street expectations, contributing to a year-to-date increase of 27% [4][16] - Pinterest shares fell about 20% due to a revenue forecast that fell short of analysts' estimates, raising concerns about AI risks to its platform [4][17] - DraftKings stock dropped 17% after missing analyst expectations for guidance, while Roku's stock rose 15% after beating fourth-quarter earnings estimates [8][9] AI Impact on Market Sentiment - Concerns about AI disruption have affected various sectors, including real estate and logistics, leading to a sell-off in tech stocks, particularly the "Magnificent Seven" megacaps [3] - Conversely, fears surrounding AI have benefited Asian stocks, particularly chipmakers, as global funds shift preference towards hardware producers with strong pricing power [11][12][13]