DraftKings Earnings Miss Wall Street's Expectations - Barron'sSkip to Main ContentThis copy is for your personal, non-commercial use only. Distribution and use of this material are governed by our Subscriber Agreement and by copyright law. For non-personal use or to order multiple copies, please contact Dow Jones Reprints at 1-800-843-0008 or visit www.djreprints.com.# DraftKings Earnings Miss Wall Street's Expectations. The Stock Is Falling Sharply.ByNick DevorShareResize---ReprintsSince its last report, D ...

DraftKings forecasts $6.9 billion revenue guidance on 'expected investment in DraftKings Predictions' https://t.co/nqYBcav0Mt ...

Market Overview - The stock market experienced a sell-off, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all declining by more than 1% on Thursday [1] - Concerns about AI disruption are affecting various industries, including software, financials, office real estate, and logistics [1] Company Insights - Alphabet's stock increased after announcing a significant upgrade to its Gemini 3 Deep Think reasoning model, which can now tackle modern science and engineering challenges, indicating its leadership in AI development [1] - The company made a small purchase of Alphabet shares and is considering further investments during market weakness [1] Housing Market Data - Existing home sales in January fell by 8.4% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted rate of 3.91 million, which is 4.4% lower than January 2025 [1] - The January report may dampen expectations for a housing market recovery, but the impact of unusually cold weather is noted as a complicating factor [1] - The downtick in the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to around 6.1% in January from 6.19% in December is not expected to significantly influence sales trends [1] Economic Indicators - Upcoming earnings reports are expected from several companies, including Coinbase, Arista Networks, and Moderna [1] - The January Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is anticipated to be released on Friday [1]

DraftKings Inc. (NASDAQ:DKNG) is one of the most oversold NASDAQ stocks to invest in. Bernstein cut the price target on DraftKings Inc. (NASDAQ:DKNG) to $32 from $41 on February 6, maintaining an Outperform rating on the shares. The rating update came ahead of the quarterly results, with the firm telling investors that it anticipates DraftKings Inc. (NASDAQ:DKNG) to deliver strong fiscal Q4 results this month, supported by favorable sports results. Despite this sentiment, Bernstein believes that this alone ...

Core Insights - The gaming sector is experiencing a mixed performance, with MGM reporting a solid quarter despite a challenging 2025, while expectations for Wynn and DraftKings are cautiously optimistic as they prepare for upcoming earnings reports [1][2][3]. MGM Insights - MGM faced a difficult 2025 with high single-digit declines in visitation and gross gaming revenue, but anticipates a better performance in 2026, particularly in the latter half of the year [2][3]. - Growth in Macau and the digital business is highlighted as a positive aspect of MGM's diversified operations, despite the stock underperforming in 2025 [3][4]. Wynn Insights - Wynn is positioned as a luxury play within the gaming sector, expected to perform better than mid-tier operators, with positive outlooks for both its Vegas operations and the recovering Macau market [5][6]. - The stock is trading at approximately 20 times earnings, with significant luxury assets and plans to open a property in the UAE by late 2026 [7]. DraftKings Insights - DraftKings is expected to exceed Q4 expectations, driven by a strong December performance, although guidance for 2026 may be slightly below expectations due to investments in prediction markets [9][10]. - The company is rolling out a prediction product in markets where sports betting is not available, and initial tracking indicates positive reception [11]. Market Trends - The luxury segment in the gaming and lodging industry is showing growth, while other segments are declining, reflecting a K-shaped economic recovery [5]. - The Chinese market is seen as a bright spot for gaming companies, particularly with the upcoming Chinese New Year [8].

Group 1: Market Performance - Kalshi experienced record downloads during Super Bowl week, increasing by 1,544% compared to the same period last year, with daily active users rising over 1,100% to nearly 2 million on the day of the game [2] - More than $1 billion was traded on Kalshi for the Super Bowl, marking a 2,700% increase, with significant trading activity in pop culture events like Bad Bunny's performance [3] - Daily active users for major sportsbooks like DraftKings and FanDuel reached 5 million and 4.2 million respectively during the Super Bowl, indicating strong competition in the market [7] Group 2: Future Events and Growth - The NCAA tournament is expected to generate more gambling dollars than the Super Bowl, with the event kicking off on March 15 [6] - The World Cup will feature 104 games starting in mid-June, further driving market activity [6] - Robinhood reported a 300% rise in "other revenue," primarily from event contracts, and anticipates significant growth with 12 billion event contracts in 2025 and 4 billion already in 2026 [8] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Kalshi has aggressively marketed itself, outspending Polymarket by about 19 times and DraftKings by about 35% in the U.S. [6] - Despite the rise of prediction markets, traditional sportsbooks like DraftKings and FanDuel do not see cannibalization of their business, viewing event contracts as an opportunity in states without legalized sports wagering [7] - Robinhood's CEO noted that event contracts are the fastest-growing business segment, indicating a shift in consumer interest towards these markets [8]

Market Overview - Mid cap equities showed flat to slightly positive performance in Q4, with the Russell Midcap Index returning 0.16% [2] - Market dynamics were influenced more by investor sentiment and positioning rather than macroeconomic factors, leading to uneven earnings reactions [2] - Mid cap equities lagged behind both small and large caps for the year, despite improvements in fundamentals for many mid cap businesses [3] Performance Analysis - The ClearBridge Mid Cap Strategy underperformed its benchmark due to broad market headwinds and uneven earnings reactions, despite solid execution in the portfolio [4] - Information technology and real estate sectors were significant detractors, while consumer discretionary holdings provided some positive contributions [4][5] Sector-Specific Insights - The IT sector faced challenges as investor sentiment weakened towards software businesses, impacting companies like Teledyne Technologies and Bentley Systems [5] - Real estate was pressured by Alexandria Real Estate Equities due to a slowdown in biopharma research spending, leading to a decline in leasing demand [6] - Consumer discretionary sector saw positive performance from companies like Light & Wonder and Expedia, which benefited from improved execution and market conditions [7] Portfolio Positioning - The company reallocated capital towards businesses with durable fundamentals and recurring revenue profiles, while exiting positions with unfavorable risk-reward profiles [9] - New positions were initiated in Casella Waste Systems and Tyler Technologies, focusing on companies with strong recurring revenue models [10] - Exited positions included Corpay and DraftKings due to emerging competitive uncertainties [11] Future Outlook - The environment for mid cap equities is expected to improve, with signs of easing market imbalances and potential for reaccelerated business investment [13][14] - A normalization of capital allocation could benefit mid cap companies with strong cash flows and attractive valuations [14] - The company is focusing on bottom-up stock selection and balanced portfolio construction to navigate the evolving opportunity set [15] Portfolio Highlights - The ClearBridge Mid Cap Strategy underperformed the Russell Midcap Index, with contributions primarily from consumer discretionary and health care sectors [16] - Stock selection in various sectors, including IT and real estate, detracted from performance, while consumer discretionary sector selection provided some benefits [17] - Notable individual stock performance included detractors like Alexandria Real Estate Equities and contributors like Light & Wonder and Expedia [18]

Core Viewpoint - Cathie Wood's ETFs sold 785,490 shares of DraftKings amid concerns over increased competition from prediction markets, although these fears may be exaggerated, suggesting there are better investment opportunities in the online betting sector than DraftKings at this time [1]. Company Overview - DraftKings, based in Boston, operates retail sports betting in 28 states and has a prediction markets app available in 38 states, also allowing online bets on casino games [2]. Financial Performance - DraftKings has a market capitalization of $13.5 billion and a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 22x. In Q3, the company's revenue increased by 4% year-over-year to $1.14 billion, with an operational loss of $272 million, an improvement from a $298.6 million loss in Q3 of 2024. The company forecasts its 2025 EBITDA, excluding certain items, to be between $450 million and $550 million [3]. Market Trends - As of February 9, DraftKings' stock had decreased by 21% in 2026, while the S&P 500 Index rose by 1.75% during the same period [4]. - The popularity of prediction markets for sports betting has surged, particularly since Kalshi began allowing users to bet on sporting events, following a lack of federal opposition during the Trump administration [5]. - The decline in shares of sportsbook operators like DraftKings and Flutter indicates expectations of a shrinking market share for sportsbooks. Analysts have also reduced Flutter's Q4 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) estimates by 49% in the last three months [6]. Betting Activity - Total wagers on the Seahawks during this year's Super Bowl reached $1.5 billion, indicating substantial financial activity within major online sports-betting platforms [7].

Group 1 - DraftKings Inc. is currently facing challenges due to a lack of consolidation in the sports betting industry, particularly in key states like California, Florida, and Texas, which are crucial for its growth [1][3] - The stock is perceived as undervalued at its current price, but without regulatory changes in these states, the company may struggle to attract new customers and grow its account base [1][3] - The company is categorized as being "in the wilderness" until significant changes occur in the regulatory landscape, indicating uncertainty in its future performance [3] Group 2 - DraftKings operates in the digital sports entertainment and gaming sector, offering online sports betting, daily fantasy sports, and various iGaming products [3] - There is a belief that consolidation within the industry could potentially improve DraftKings' market position and stock performance [1][3]

Core Viewpoint - Shares of Flutter Entertainment plc have returned to 2020 levels, losing three years of gains, reflecting a significant decline in investor confidence in the online gambling sector [3][4]. Group 1: Reasons for the Decline - The decline in Flutter's stock is attributed to increased competition from pure prediction market players, raising concerns about margin pressure and operational shifts in betting markets [4]. - There is ongoing frustration regarding Flutter's path to consistent profitability, with investors growing impatient over the lack of clear timelines for earnings leverage despite strong top-line growth [5]. - The competitive landscape remains intense, with rivals like DraftKings Inc. aggressively spending, which keeps acquisition costs high and limits margin expansion potential [6]. Group 2: Potential Recovery Indicators - Flutter's shares have dropped over 50% from last summer's highs, but the stock is now considered deeply oversold and near long-term support levels, which historically attract buyers [8]. - Analysts suggest that the selloff may have been excessive relative to the company's long-term opportunities, with some predicting a potential upside of up to 50% [8]. - The current risk/reward profile appears attractive, with technical indicators suggesting that selling pressure may soon exhaust itself [9].