作者 |第一财经 樊志菁 2026.02.24 本文字数：1917，阅读时长大约3分钟 软件相关企业受AI颠覆担忧拖累重挫4.0%，DoorDash和赛富时跌超5%，甲骨文跌4.59%。网络安全股 低迷，CrowdStrike ,Datadog 和Zscaler 跌幅达到两位数。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌0.95%，拼多多涨0.78%，京东跌0.66%，阿里巴巴跌1.10%，百度跌1.42%，网 易跌1.76%。 一场强冬季风暴席卷美国大部，东北部交通陷入瘫痪，航空与旅游休闲板块分别暴跌3.7%与4.0%，道 琼斯运输指数下跌2.9%。 医疗保健指数上涨近1%，受礼来股价大涨4.86%%提振 ——其竞品诺和诺德的减肥药CagriSema 在头对 头试验中表现不及礼来的Zepbound。 美国最高法院上周五裁定特朗普政府的紧急关税政策无效，特朗普随即迅速宣布对所有美国进口商品加 征10%新关税，周六又将税率上调至15%。新关税依据1974年《贸易法》第122条（Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974）实施。 周一，美股低开低走，软件与金融板块领跌。上周五美国最高法院裁定特朗普政府 ...

Core Viewpoint - The launch of Anthropic's AI tool, Claude Code Security, has led to a significant decline in shares of various cybersecurity companies, as investors assess its potential impact on the industry [1]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Shares of CrowdStrike, Datadog, and Zscaler fell approximately 11%, while Fortinet and Okta experienced declines of around 6%. Palo Alto Networks dropped by 3%, and SentinelOne was down by 5% [1]. - The selloff is characterized as a "panic-driven, narrative-led" reaction, according to an analyst from Robert W. Baird [1]. Group 2: Product Features and Limitations - Claude Code Security is designed to detect high-severity vulnerabilities in open-source software repositories and provide patches, but it does not perform real-time security tasks such as detecting live intrusions or stopping ongoing attacks [1]. - Some analysts believe the market's reaction is an overreaction, driven by a simplistic narrative suggesting that AI could replace existing cybersecurity solutions [1]. Group 3: Industry Developments - Nvidia announced a partnership with Akamai, Forescout, Palo Alto Networks, Xage Security, and Siemens to enhance real-time cybersecurity for industrial control systems [1].

Core Insights - Generative AI is viewed as a transformative technology by Amazon's CEO Andy Jassy, indicating its potential to significantly enhance customer experiences across the company [1] - Elon Musk predicts that humanoid robots could create a market worth $250 trillion by 2040, representing a major shift in the global economy driven by AI innovation [2] - Major firms like PwC and McKinsey acknowledge the multi-trillion-dollar potential of AI, suggesting a broad consensus on its economic impact [3] Company and Industry Analysis - A breakthrough in AI technology is redefining work, learning, and creativity, leading to increased interest from hedge funds and top investors [4] - There is speculation about an under-owned company that may play a crucial role in the AI revolution, with its technology posing a threat to competitors [4] - Prominent figures in technology and investment, including Bill Gates and Warren Buffett, recognize AI as a significant advancement with the potential for substantial social benefits [8] - The article suggests that investors may soon regret not owning shares in a specific AI company that is positioned to capitalize on this technological wave [9]

Core Insights - Zscaler (ZS) is set to report its second-quarter fiscal 2026 results on February 26, with projected revenues between $797 million and $799 million, indicating a year-over-year growth of 23.2% [1][9] - The company anticipates non-GAAP earnings per share between 89 cents and 90 cents, reflecting a significant 14% increase from the previous year's earnings of 78 cents [2][9] Revenue and Earnings Projections - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Zscaler's revenue is pegged at $798 million, aligning with the company's projections [1] - The expected earnings per share of 89 cents suggests a strong performance compared to the prior year [2] Growth Drivers - Zscaler's results are likely to benefit from increased demand for AI security and the momentum of its Zero Trust Everywhere platform, which is expected to drive larger platform deals and customer consolidation [3] - Strong engagement with Global 2000 and Fortune 500 customers, along with $1 million ARR customers, is anticipated to be a key catalyst due to ongoing digital transformation and the rise of hybrid work [4] Challenges and Market Conditions - Despite the positive outlook, Zscaler faces challenges such as tight overall IT budgets and increased scrutiny on large deals, which may offset some gains [5] - The legacy ZIA/ZPA business is growing at a slower pace compared to newer products, leading to a greater reliance on these newer offerings for sustained growth [6] Earnings Prediction Model - The current model does not predict an earnings beat for Zscaler, as it has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) [7]

Core Viewpoint - The recent launch of Anthropic PBC's AI tool, Claude Code Security, has triggered a significant sell-off in cybersecurity stocks, raising concerns about AI's potential to disrupt traditional threat detection markets [1][5]. Group 1: Market Reaction - On February 20, major U.S. stock indices rose, but cybersecurity stocks experienced a sharp decline, with SailPoint down 9.44%, Okta down 9.18%, Cloudflare down 8.05%, and Crowdstrike down 7.95% [3]. - The Global X Cybersecurity ETF fell nearly 5%, marking its lowest closing record since November 2023 [3]. - The sell-off erased billions in market value for the cybersecurity sector in a single trading day [5]. Group 2: AI Tool Impact - Anthropic PBC's Claude Code Security can identify vulnerabilities in code that have gone unnoticed for decades, which may undermine the long-term value of existing enterprise security suites [5]. - The tool's ability to shift the focus from passive monitoring to proactive automated remediation has raised concerns among market participants [5]. - The emergence of AI-native tools is expected to fundamentally change the competitive landscape, as they may reduce demand for traditional products and impact growth, margins, and pricing power of related companies [5]. Group 3: Industry Analysis - Analysts note that the current AI wave is causing skepticism in the software sector, similar to past technological shifts, but the narrative of "AI eliminating software" lacks logical support [6]. - Despite macroeconomic challenges and slow AI adoption, there is potential for a gradual shift in market sentiment towards the software sector as AI revenue contributions increase [6]. - Investors are advised to focus on leading application software companies with strong balance sheets and foundational software and information security firms with positive fundamentals [6].

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of a new security tool by AI company Anthropic has led to a significant decline in cybersecurity stocks, highlighting investor concerns about competition from AI-native companies in the software sector [1][15][16]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Cybersecurity software companies experienced a sharp decline in stock prices, with Crowdstrike Holdings dropping approximately 8%, Cloudflare down about 8.1%, Zscaler down around 5.5%, SailPoint down about 9.4%, and Okta down approximately 9.2% [1]. - The Global X Cybersecurity ETF fell by about 4.9%, reaching its lowest level since November 2023 [1]. Group 2: AI Impact on Cybersecurity - Anthropic's new tool is designed to scan codebases for security vulnerabilities and suggest software patches for manual review, currently in a limited research preview phase [15][16]. - The software sector has seen a decline of over 23% this year, potentially marking the largest quarterly drop since the 2008 financial crisis, driven by fears of AI disrupting traditional IT and cybersecurity business models [16]. - Analysts warn that automated AI solutions could undermine existing software business models, compress profit margins, and force companies to innovate rapidly [16][17]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - The market is reacting fearfully to any signs of disruption, leading to significant sell-offs in the software sector, particularly in cybersecurity stocks [17]. - Concerns are growing over "vibe coding," where AI can generate software code, potentially reducing demand for traditional products and impacting company growth, margins, and pricing power [17].

Core Viewpoint - The introduction of a new security feature by AI company Anthropic has led to a significant decline in cybersecurity stocks, highlighting investor fears regarding competition from AI-native companies [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Cybersecurity software companies experienced a collective stock price drop, with Crowdstrike Holdings falling approximately 8% and Cloudflare down about 8.1% [1]. - Other notable declines included Zscaler at around 5.5%, SailPoint at 9.4%, and Okta at 9.2%, while the Global X Cybersecurity ETF decreased by about 4.9%, reaching its lowest level since November 2023 [1]. Group 2: AI Impact - Anthropic's new tool is designed to scan code repositories for security vulnerabilities and suggest targeted software patches for manual review, currently in a limited research preview phase [2][3]. - The decline in cybersecurity stocks is part of a broader trend where the software sector has faced selling pressure due to concerns over competition from AI-driven solutions, with the iShares expanded technology software industry ETF down over 23% this year, potentially marking the largest quarterly drop since the 2008 financial crisis [3]. Group 3: Analyst Insights - Analysts warn that AI-driven automation solutions could disrupt existing software business models, compress profit margins, and force companies to innovate rapidly, with the market closely monitoring how AI will reshape cybersecurity [4]. - The recent sell-off in the software sector, particularly in cybersecurity, is attributed to new AI tools from companies like Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google, raising concerns about "vibe coding," which allows users to create applications using AI, potentially diminishing demand for traditional products and impacting company growth, margins, and pricing power [4].

Core Viewpoint - Zscaler's stock has experienced a significant decline, nearly halving since its peak in November, leading to investor frustration, but there is hope for recovery with the upcoming earnings report [1]. Company Analysis - Zscaler operates in the cybersecurity sector, which is critical for protecting organizations from increasing cyber threats [1]. - The company is expected to report earnings soon, which could provide insights into its financial health and future prospects [1]. Investment Perspective - The analysis emphasizes the importance of quantitative methods in identifying undervalued stocks, suggesting that numerical data often provides a clearer picture of a company's potential than narrative [1]. - The author has a long-term investment background, indicating a commitment to understanding market dynamics and stock performance [1].

Core Viewpoint - Zscaler's stock has experienced a significant decline, nearly halving since its peak in November, leading to investor frustration, but there is hope for recovery with the upcoming earnings report [1]. Company Summary - Zscaler is a cybersecurity company that is currently facing a challenging market environment, as indicated by the substantial drop in its stock price [1]. - The company is expected to release its earnings report soon, which could provide insights into its financial health and future prospects [1]. Investment Analysis - The analysis emphasizes the importance of quantitative methods in identifying undervalued stocks, suggesting that numerical data often provides a clearer picture of a company's potential than narrative accounts [1]. - The author has a long-term investment background, having been active in the market since 2013, and has utilized extensive research and reading to inform investment strategies [1].

Core Insights - Zscaler, Inc. (ZS) is experiencing significant growth from its Z-Flex program, which allows customers to commit to spending levels while maintaining flexibility to adjust modules later, potentially driving future growth [1][2] Group 1: Z-Flex Program Performance - Z-Flex was introduced in Q3 of fiscal 2025 and generated over $175 million in total contract value bookings in Q1 of fiscal 2026, marking a 70% sequential increase, indicating strong customer interest in flexible licensing [2][11] - The program is enhancing relationships with existing clients, leading to increased annual spending as enterprises adopt multiple modules under Z-Flex, which is crucial for Zscaler's strategy focused on platform adoption across various security offerings [3][5] - Z-Flex is facilitating larger deal sizes, as customers are more inclined to commit to broader deployments knowing they can adjust product choices later, thus accelerating sales cycles [4][11] Group 2: Financial Outlook - The early success of the Z-Flex program suggests it could become a sustainable growth engine for Zscaler, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate projecting revenue growth of 23.2% for fiscal 2026 and 19.8% for fiscal 2027 [5] - Zscaler's shares have decreased by 14.8% over the past year, slightly better than the Zacks Security industry's decline of 15.6% [9] - The company trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 7.37, which is below the industry average of 10.01, indicating potential undervaluation [13] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Zscaler faces competition from Palo Alto Networks, Inc. and CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc., both of which employ similar platform-driven growth strategies with flexible bundles to enhance customer spending [6][8] - Palo Alto Networks offers subscription pricing and bundled offerings that can provide 10-15% savings compared to purchasing products separately, encouraging broader platform adoption [7] - CrowdStrike's Falcon platform bundles and Falcon Flex licensing model allow customers to add modules without new procurement cycles, contributing to a significant year-over-year growth in annual recurring revenue [8]