25 June 2025 | 8:38PM CST TSMC (2330.TW) Growth outlook further reinforced by easing concern on AI order cuts and growing CoWoS adoption; reiterate Buy (on CL); TP to NT$1,210 | 2330.TW | 12m Price Target: NT$1,210.00 | Price: NT$1,070.00 | Upside: 13.1% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TSM | 12m Price Target: $242.00 | Price: $220.09 | Upside: 10.0% | We are raising our earnings forecast for TSMC by 2-6% for 2025-2027E as we raise our 1) wafer revenue forecast for 3nm/5nm, partially to factor in our easing co ...

Core Viewpoint - TSMC has received an upgrade to a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), indicating a positive trend in earnings estimates which is a significant factor influencing stock prices [1][3]. Earnings Estimates and Stock Price Impact - The Zacks rating system is based on changes in earnings estimates, which are closely correlated with near-term stock price movements [4][6]. - Institutional investors often rely on earnings estimates to determine the fair value of stocks, leading to buying or selling actions that affect stock prices [4]. TSMC's Earnings Outlook - For the fiscal year ending December 2025, TSMC is expected to earn $9.28 per share, which remains unchanged from the previous year [8]. - Over the past three months, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for TSMC has increased by 1.4%, reflecting a positive outlook [8]. Zacks Rank System - The Zacks Rank system classifies stocks into five groups based on earnings estimates, with a strong historical performance, particularly for Zacks Rank 1 stocks which have averaged a +25% annual return since 1988 [7]. - TSMC's upgrade to Zacks Rank 2 places it in the top 20% of Zacks-covered stocks, suggesting potential for market-beating returns in the near term [10].

Company Overview - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) has a current share price of around $228 and is experiencing strong performance due to the rising demand for artificial intelligence (AI) and the recovery in semiconductor stocks [1] - TSM is a dominant player in the semiconductor industry, controlling approximately two-thirds of the global third-party market and manufacturing chips for major AI companies like Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom [3] Financial Performance - TSM reported first-quarter 2025 earnings of $2.12 per share, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.03, resulting in an earnings surprise of 4.4% [4] - The company achieved revenues of $25.5 billion, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $25.3 billion [4] - TSM's AI-chip business is projected to double in 2025, with annual AI-specific revenues expected to reach around $20 billion [5] Market Position and Growth - TSM is not only benefiting from a cyclical upswing in the semiconductor market but is also central to the structural transformation in computing driven by AI [5] - The company's CoWoS packaging margins exceed 60%, largely due to demand from AI and high-performance computing [5] - Year to date, TSM has grown 15.8%, outperforming its Zacks Peer Group, which advanced by 13.4% [7] Challenges and Risks - TSM faces headwinds from geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and China, and has allocated about $18 billion to hedge against Taiwan-dollar volatility [6] - Cybersecurity threats and supply-chain nationalization efforts pose additional risks as TSM expands its manufacturing facilities in the U.S., Japan, and Germany [6] Strategic Outlook - TSM is viewed as a backbone of AI infrastructure, with a long runway for growth as it supplies chips for various applications, including generative AI and AI-powered smartphones [8] - The company maintains a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), indicating positive market sentiment towards its future performance [7]

Core Viewpoint - Brokerage recommendations, particularly for TSMC, suggest a strong buy sentiment, but their reliability is questioned due to potential biases from brokerage firms [2][10]. Brokerage Recommendations for TSMC - TSMC has an average brokerage recommendation (ABR) of 1.32, indicating a consensus between Strong Buy and Buy [2]. - Out of 11 recommendations, 8 are Strong Buy and 2 are Buy, accounting for 72.7% and 18.2% of all recommendations respectively [2]. Limitations of Brokerage Recommendations - Solely relying on brokerage recommendations may not be advisable as studies indicate they often fail to guide investors effectively [5]. - Brokerage firms tend to exhibit a positive bias in their ratings, with a ratio of five Strong Buy recommendations for every Strong Sell [6][10]. Zacks Rank as an Alternative - Zacks Rank, a proprietary stock rating tool, categorizes stocks from Strong Buy to Strong Sell and is based on earnings estimate revisions, showing a strong correlation with near-term stock price movements [8][11]. - The Zacks Rank is updated more frequently than the ABR, making it a more timely indicator for predicting future stock prices [12]. Current Earnings Estimates for TSMC - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TSMC's current year earnings has increased by 0.9% over the past month to $9.28, reflecting analysts' growing optimism [13]. - This increase in consensus estimates contributes to TSMC's Zacks Rank of 2 (Buy), suggesting a positive outlook for the stock [14].

Company Overview - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is currently valued at $1.14 trillion and aims to reach $2 trillion by 2030, requiring a 75% increase over the next five years, translating to an 11% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) [1] - TSMC is the world's leading contract chip manufacturer, providing chip production services to major tech companies rather than selling chips directly [4] Market Position - TSMC is a key supplier for major companies like Apple and Nvidia, recognized for its advanced technologies and high chip yields, which help maintain competitive pricing [5] - The company has a strong forward-looking perspective as chip orders are often placed years in advance, with its Arizona factory already sold out through 2027 [5] Revenue Growth Projections - Management anticipates a 45% CAGR in AI-related revenue over the next five years, contributing to an overall CAGR of nearly 20% [6] - If revenue growth translates to stock price appreciation, TSMC is well-positioned to achieve a $2 trillion market cap [6] Valuation Analysis - TSMC's stock is currently trading at 23.3 times forward earnings, which is comparable to the S&P 500's valuation of 22.8 times forward earnings, indicating a reasonable market price [10] - Despite being historically expensive, the stock remains attractively priced relative to its growth potential [11] Investment Outlook - TSMC is considered a top investment pick due to its growth prospects, particularly in the AI sector, as all AI hyperscalers will likely utilize TSMC chips for their workloads [12]

Group 1 - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. (TSM) has reached a key level of support, with its 50-day simple moving average crossing above its 200-day simple moving average, indicating a "golden cross" which can signify a potential bullish breakout [1] - A golden cross consists of three stages: a downtrend that bottoms out, a shorter moving average crossing above a longer moving average, and a subsequent upward price movement [2] - TSM has experienced a rally of 13.6% over the past four weeks, and currently holds a 3 (Hold) rating on the Zacks Rank, suggesting it could be poised for a breakout [3] Group 2 - The bullish outlook for TSM is reinforced by a positive earnings forecast for the current quarter, with two upward revisions in earnings estimates over the past 60 days, and an increase in the Zacks Consensus Estimate [3] - Investors are encouraged to consider adding TSM to their watchlist due to the significant technical indicator and the positive movement in earnings estimates [5]

TSMC, or Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE: TSM) is set to pay out its quarterly dividend on July 10, 2025.TSM closed at $222.87 as of press time, up 12.8% for the year and gaining 3.56% just this past week. The stock’s been on a roll lately, climbing 12.74% over the last month while the broader S&P 500 managed a 3% gain.TSM 5-day stock chart. Source: Google FinanceHere’s what dividend investors need to know: TSMC is paying $0.75 per share this quarter. If you’re holding 100 shares, you’ll re ...

The AI revolution goes on. This is no doubt beneficial for the world's largest semiconductor foundry, which is the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE: TSM ). I have been holding shares of this company for severalWith a decade at a Big 4 audit firm specializing in the banking, mining, and energy sectors, I bring a strong foundation in finance and strategy. Currently, I serve as the Head of Finance for a leading owner and operator of retail real estate, where I oversee complex financial operatio ...

Group 1 - Chip stocks in Asia experienced a rise following Nvidia's record share close, reclaiming its title as the world's most valuable company with a market value of $3.77 trillion, surpassing Microsoft [1][4] - South Korea's SK Hynix saw a 3.53% increase in shares, while TSMC's shares rose by 0.47%. Foxconn also reported a 0.77% increase due to its strategic partnership with Nvidia [2] - Several Japanese chip stocks not directly linked to Nvidia also saw significant gains, with Advantest rising 3.93% to a record high and Softbank increasing by 4.38% [3] Group 2 - Nvidia's shares climbed over 4% to close at $154.31, marking a new all-time high since January, reflecting strong investor confidence in its dominance in artificial intelligence [3][4] - Despite facing export restrictions to China, Nvidia's growth trajectory remains strong, although it anticipates an $8 billion hit to sales and a $4.5 billion inventory write-down due to new regulations blocking sales of its H20 AI chip [5]

Core Insights - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is making a significant investment of $100 billion in the United States, raising its total planned U.S. expenditure to $165 billion, which includes five wafer fabs, two advanced packaging plants, and a major research and development center [1][11] - TSMC is also expanding its manufacturing capabilities in Japan and Germany, with plans to build 11 wafer manufacturing fabs and four advanced packaging facilities in Taiwan over the next several years [3][11] - The expansion aims to secure leadership in advanced chip manufacturing and address geopolitical concerns regarding supply chain diversification [4][11] Investment and Financial Outlook - TSMC expects a gross margin decline of 2-3% in 2025 due to the ramp-up of new fabs, with further dilution anticipated to widen to 3-4% annually in subsequent years [4][11] - The company has planned capital expenditures (CapEx) of $38-$42 billion for 2025, emphasizing the importance of execution and cost discipline to protect margins [5] - Despite the anticipated margin pressures, TSMC remains confident in sustaining a long-term gross margin above 53% [5] Competitive Landscape - TSMC leads the global foundry market, but competitors like Intel and GlobalFoundries are increasing their efforts in localized chip manufacturing [6][8] - Intel is investing $100 billion in new fabs in the U.S. and Europe under its IDM 2.0 strategy, aiming to compete directly with TSMC [7] - GlobalFoundries is expanding its capacity in the U.S., Germany, and Singapore to meet demand for automotive, IoT, and industrial chips, positioning itself as a trusted local manufacturing partner [8] Market Performance - TSMC shares have gained 12.1% year to date, outperforming the Semiconductor - Circuit Foundry industry's growth of 7.1% [9] - The forward price-to-sales ratio for TSMC is 8.62X, which is in line with the industry's average [12] - Zacks Consensus Estimate indicates TSMC's earnings growth of 31.82% for 2025 and 15.82% for 2026, with upward revisions in estimates over the past 30 days [15]