浦银国际研究 浦银国际 公司研究 台积电 （2330. T T/TSM.US） 公司研究 | 科技行业 台积电（2330.TT/TSM.US）：三季度毛 利率超市场预期，AI 强劲需求将带动 四季度毛利率提升 上调台积电 2024 年、2025 年盈利预测，并上调台积电（2330.TT）目 标价至 1,273.5 新台币，潜在升幅 17%，上调台积电（TSM.US）目标 价至 228.8 美元，潜在升幅 13%，均维持"买入"评级。 重申台积电的"买入"评级：台积电，作为全球晶圆龙头，充分享受 本轮 AI 浪潮中供应端算力的增量红利。而且，得益于先进制程的领 先地位，台积电几乎覆盖了跟 AI 相关的全部需求。我们看到公司今 年 AI 相关产品需求持续旺盛。在本次三季度业绩会上，台积电再次 上调全年收入增速指引至接近 30%，上调全年资本开支至略高于 320 亿美元。这也表明台积电仍处在半导体周期上行阶段。我们预计公司 2024 年、2025 年盈利将同比增长 36%、33%，对应 2024 年、2025 年 市盈率为 28.6x、21.5x，对应 EV/EBITDA 为 16.5x、13.2x。我们重申 对台 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong performance with revenue exceeding guidance, suggesting a positive investment outlook for the company [1][2]. Core Insights - The company reported Q3 2024 revenue of NT$759.69 billion (US$23.5 billion), a year-over-year increase of 36% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 12.9%, driven by strong demand in the smartphone and AI sectors for advanced processes [2][7]. - Gross margin for Q3 2024 was 57.8%, up 4.6 percentage points quarter-over-quarter and 3.5 percentage points year-over-year, benefiting from improved capacity utilization and cost optimization [2][7]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders reached NT$325.26 billion, reflecting a quarter-over-quarter increase of 31.2% and a year-over-year increase of 54.2% [2][7]. - The company expects Q4 2024 revenue to be between US$26.1 billion and US$26.9 billion, with a gross margin forecast of 57% to 59% [2][18]. Summary by Relevant Sections Overall Revenue Situation - Q3 2024 revenue was NT$759.69 billion (US$23.5 billion), exceeding the upper guidance of US$22.4-23.2 billion, driven by strong demand for 3nm and 5nm processes [2][7]. - Gross margin was 57.8%, surpassing the previous guidance of 53.5%-55.5% [2][7]. - Net profit margin was 42.8%, with a significant increase in earnings per share to NT$12.54 [2][7]. Revenue Breakdown by Market - Revenue by platform: Smartphones accounted for 34% (QoQ +16%), HPC 51% (QoQ +11%), IoT 7% (QoQ +35%), Automotive 5% (QoQ +6%), Digital Consumer Electronics 1% (QoQ -19%) [2][14]. Revenue Breakdown by Process Technology - Revenue from 3nm process accounted for 20% (QoQ +5 percentage points), 5nm for 32% (QoQ -3 percentage points), and 7nm for 17% [2][14]. - Advanced processes (7nm and below) contributed to 69% of total wafer revenue [2][14]. Capital Expenditure - Capital expenditure for Q3 2024 was approximately US$6.4 billion, with a full-year budget expected to exceed US$30 billion, focusing on advanced process technologies [2][12][20]. Inventory - Inventory days at the end of Q3 2024 were 87 days, an increase of 4 days, primarily due to stocking for 3nm and 5nm wafers [2][13]. Company Guidance - For Q4 2024, the company projects revenue between US$26.1 billion and US$26.9 billion, with a gross margin of 57%-59% [2][18].

I last discussed Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE: TSM ), also known as TSMC, on November 28, 2023, giving it a strong buy. My reason for making that recommendation at the time was a belief that its largest end markets would bounce backI have been a Merchant Seaman that has traveled the world for over 30 years. Within the last 15 years, I developed a very intense interest in investing. I learned a lot of what I know about investing from The MF. Also because I have a engineering background, I often t ...

The GPU market is projected to eclipse $1 trillion by the next decade, according to Precedence Research.You may have heard that semiconductor stocks such as Nvidia have ballooned in value over the last couple of years, and do you know why? The answer is actually quite simple. Nvidia develops chipsets known as graphics processing units (GPUs), which are a critical piece of infrastructure used in generative AI. Nvidia is widely regarded as one of AI's most influential players, and has amassed an estimated 88% ...

The stock's valuation has risen, but its outlook remains bright.Shares of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM 0.58%), or TSMC for short, climbed higher after the semiconductor contract manufacturer reported strong third-quarter results and offered an upbeat outlook. The stock has now about doubled year to date.With its strong performance this year and recent jump in share price, investors may be wondering if it is too late to buy the stock.Let's take a closer look at TSMC's most recent quarter and deter ...

TSMC just crossed the trillion-dollar mark. You can't talk about artificial intelligence or chip stocks without talking about Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM 0.58%), or TSMC as it's also known. The company invented the pure-play foundry business model in 1987, meaning it manufactures chips only for other chip companies rather than its own designs, and it's the dominant player in that industry today. Its market share of contract chip manufacturing is estimated at around 60%, and it makes roughly 90% ...

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited aka TSMC (NYSE: TSM ) reported earnings last week to great fanfare, as the stock added a 5+% rally on top of a share price that has already more than doubled over the To follow me click the "Follow" button! (Easy right?) Hi there, thanks for coming to my profile page! My name is Kumquat Research (but you can call me Jeremy) and I've been writing for Seeking Alpha on and off for going on ten years now, beginning with my inaugural published piece during my fi ...

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) , the world's largest semiconductor foundry and also known as TSMC, last week delivered another stellar earnings report for the third quarter of 2024. Beating expectations yet again, TSMC continues to solidify its leadership in the advanced chip industry, cementing its position as a long-term winner.With solid growth across key financial metrics and increasing demand for its cutting-edge technology, the question remains: Should you buy TSM stock?The answer le ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's revenue for Q3 2024 increased by 39% year-on-year, with net profit and diluted earnings per share both rising by 54% [1] - For Q3 2024, revenue reached $23.5 billion, representing a 36% year-on-year growth and a 12.9% quarter-on-quarter increase [1] - The strong performance in Q3 2024 was primarily driven by demand from smartphones and AI-related sectors, particularly from the leading 3nm and 5nm technologies [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2023 was NT$2,161,736 million, with a projected increase to NT$2,876,265 million in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 33.05% [2] - Net profit for 2023 was NT$838,498 million, expected to rise to NT$1,172,772 million in 2024, indicating a year-on-year growth of 39.87% [2] - The company’s gross margin for Q3 2024 was 57.8%, up from 53.2% in Q2 2024, while operating margin was 47.5% compared to 42.5% in Q2 2024 [1] Future Outlook - Management expects Q4 2024 revenue to be between $26.1 billion and $26.9 billion, with gross margin projected between 57% and 59% [1] - The contribution from 3nm and advanced technologies accounted for 69% of total wafer revenue in Q3 2024 [1] - The company anticipates that revenue from server AI processors will triple in 2024, contributing to a mid-teens percentage of total revenue [1] Regional Contribution - In Q3 2024, North American customers contributed 71% of total revenue, while China, Asia-Pacific, Japan, and EMEA contributed 11%, 10%, 5%, and 3% respectively [1]

Group 1: Nvidia's Growth and Market Position - Nvidia reached a market capitalization of $1 trillion in May 2023, driven by increased spending on artificial intelligence, and has since tripled in value, becoming the second most valuable company globally after Apple [1] - The company is part of a larger ecosystem of "hyperscalers" that are expanding data centers for generative AI, highlighting its critical role in the supply chain [1] Group 2: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) Overview - TSMC has become the newest member of the $1 trillion club, recognized for its advanced technology and significant market share, capturing over 60% of industry spending [3] - TSMC reported a 39% year-over-year revenue growth in Q3, with gross margins increasing to 57.8% and net income rising by 54.2%, showcasing its technological leadership [3][4] Group 3: Future Growth Potential - TSMC anticipates that revenue from AI chips will more than triple in 2024, although this segment will only represent a mid-teen percentage of total revenue, indicating substantial growth potential in AI [5] - The company is increasing its capital expenditures to over $30 billion for 2024 and plans to invest even more in 2025, alongside an 11.4% year-over-year increase in R&D spending [6] Group 4: Competitive Advantage and Market Outlook - TSMC's position as the largest foundry allows it to invest more in technology and machinery, maintaining its competitive edge and strong relationships with major customers [6] - The stock has more than doubled in 2024, trading at just over 25 times analysts' estimates for 2025 earnings, with potential for continued growth at a rate around 20% over the next five years [7] - TSMC is well-positioned to capture a significant share of the chip manufacturing market, regardless of which companies are designing the chips, due to its established virtuous cycle of technological advancement and customer relationships [8]