China’s massive buildout of power generation capacity will give it a leg up over the US in the race to expand data centers fueling AI, according to Goldman Sachs https://t.co/Ts3JlIh4d2 ...

Goldman Sachs on Thursday strongly backed its top lawyer, Kathy Ruemmler, a day after a congressional committee released her chummy emails with notorious sex offender Jeffrey Epstein before she joined the investment bank.Those emails feature Ruemmler, who served as White House counsel to former President Barack Obama, and Epstein exchanging thoughts about President Donald Trump, former President Bill Clinton, Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg, and overweight highway rest stop patrons."See you at 2, I ordered ...

Monetary Policy Considerations - The Federal Reserve's upcoming decision is viewed as an agonizing one, with market probabilities at 50/50 [1][2] - The Fed funds rate is currently in a range of 3.75% to 4% [5][6] - Some believe the neutral Fed funds rate is much lower, potentially leading to a 50 basis point cut [6] - The real neutral Fed funds rate (adjusted for inflation) is estimated to be between 0.75% and 1% [7] - A neutral nominal Fed funds rate of 2.75% assumes inflation will return to 2%, but it's currently running at 2.75% to 3% [8] - Adding the current inflation rate (2.75% to 3%) to the real neutral rate (0.75% to 1%) yields a nominal rate of 3.5% to 3.75% [9] - The market is seeing more hawkish voices emerge because the Fed is closer to neutral, having already cut rates by 25 basis points in October [11] - The Fed needs to assess whether the labor market weakness is cyclical, due to the shutdown, or structural (mismatches between jobs and job seekers) [13] Economic Factors Influencing the Fed - Near-term tariffs are slowing growth [3] - Immigration policies and uncertainty around 12 to 15 million immigrants in the workforce are affecting supply and hurting growth [4] - The government shutdown has hurt growth, but its resolution will help [4][12] - Tailwinds in 2026 include the unwinding of the shutdown, tax incentives, and regulatory relief [4] - The AI data center power boom is considered near neutral on the Fed funds rate [5] - Inflation has been sticky and running 0.75% to 1% above target [12]

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Goldman Sachs (GS) . Shares have added about 9.3% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.But investors have to be wondering, will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Goldman due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its latest earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.Goldman Q3 Earnings Beat Es ...

Government Shutdown Resolution - US government shutdown ends with a deal to keep operations running through January 30th [1] - The agreement reverses federal worker layoffs and funds key programs [2] Market Impact - Markets barely flinched during the shutdown, with the S&P 500 climbing 2% [2] - The shutdown shaved off approximately 8/10 of a percentage point from quarterly GDP [3] Economic Fallout - The shutdown resulted in roughly $55 billion in lost output [3] - Goldman Sachs estimates job growth slowed to 50,000 in October, down from approximately 85,000 in September [3] - Concerns over slowdown in job growth and stretched valuations still linger [4]

Market Overview & Strategy - The market demonstrates strength with rotation into reasonably priced stocks outside the AI space, indicating a broader base beyond data center spending [2][3][4] - A rotation into undervalued companies that could catch fire is happening, defying the bears [4] - Growth investing in non-tech style is making a comeback [22][26] Travel & Leisure Sector - Travel stocks, including airline stocks like United and Delta, and Expedia, are recovering as the government shutdown ends [5] - Cruise lines and hotels are expected to experience similar gains as travel stocks [5] - Analysts are anticipated to turn positive on travel stocks, including Marriott and Wynn Resorts, as the government reopens and China's economy strengthens [6][7] Restaurant Sector - Restaurants like Brinker (parent of Chili's), Texas Roadhouse, and Chipotle are showing signs of recovery [11] - Brinker reported a terrific quarter, while Texas Roadhouse was impacted by beef inflation [11][12] - Starbucks' last quarter was positive, and Darden (Olive Garden) is a buy due to consumer confidence [13][14] Retail Sector - Retail owners are encouraged to promote usual suspects, especially with the collapse of oil prices [14] - On Holdings reported a remarkable quarter with no planned holiday discounts [15] - Retailers like Urban Outfitters, Macy's, and Costco are highlighted as potentially undervalued [16][17] Financial Sector - Bank stocks are considered absurdly cheap compared to the rest of the market [18] - A surge in IPO filings is expected from Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, JP Morgan, and Wells Fargo [19] Healthcare Sector - Amgen announced a breakthrough in Repatha, an injection to prevent heart attacks [20] - Pfizer is suggested as a potential buy to enter the lucrative weight loss business [20] Company Specific - Celsius had a bad miss in the last quarter, and it's recommended to wait another quarter [23][24] - Deere is expected to benefit from farmers receiving checks [25] - Flood Entertainment is on the move after reporting good earnings [27] - AMG soared 9% on the heels of its Analyst Day [27]

Core Insights - Skims has raised $225 million in new funding, increasing its valuation to $5 billion from approximately $4 billion after its 2023 funding round [1][2] - The company is approaching $1 billion in annual net sales, marking one of the largest private funding rounds for a U.S. consumer brand this year [2] Funding and Valuation - The funding round was led by Goldman Sachs Alternatives, with participation from BDT & MSD Partners' affiliated funds [1][2] - The new capital will be used for brick-and-mortar and international expansion, product innovation, and category diversification [3] Business Strategy - Skims aims to transition into a "predominantly physical business," moving away from its digital-first model [4] - The company currently operates 18 stores in the U.S. and one in Mexico, with plans for additional international locations in 2026 [3] Product Expansion - The recent launch of NikeSkims, a collaboration with Nike, sold out quickly and indicates Skims' ambition to expand into activewear and performance categories [5] - This move positions Skims to compete in the mainstream athleticwear market, traditionally dominated by brands like Lululemon and Nike [5] IPO Considerations - The new funding may delay Skims' initial public offering (IPO), which has been anticipated since at least 2024 [6] - The consumer IPO market has been stagnant, allowing Skims to scale without immediate pressure to go public [6] Brand Positioning - Skims is recognized as a solutions-driven apparel innovator, focusing on inclusive sizing and a minimalist aesthetic [7] - The brand has garnered a strong following through high-profile campaigns featuring celebrities and athletes [7]

Today in Bloomberg Deals: Activists are nearing a new record for Japan campaigns, plus Goldman nabs biggest EA payday and Mercedes F1’s value could reach $6 billion https://t.co/7Zdria5slO ...

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) shares have increased by 43.6% year to date, outperforming the industry average of 34.3% [1] - The investment banking (IB) business is experiencing strong growth, with IB fees reaching $6.8 billion, a 19% year-over-year increase in the first nine months of 2025 [5][9] - The company is focusing on strategic streamlining, exiting underperforming consumer banking ventures, and enhancing its Global Banking and Markets and asset and wealth management divisions [10][12] Investment Banking Performance - Goldman Sachs' IB revenues surged by 42.5% year over year in Q3 2025, driven by a resurgence in global dealmaking activity [5][6] - The bank advised on over $1 trillion in announced M&A volumes in the first nine months of 2025, positioning itself as a leader in M&A advisory [6] - Management anticipates an even stronger year for M&A activity in 2026, contingent on macroeconomic conditions [6] Strategic Streamlining and Growth Initiatives - The firm is exiting its non-core consumer banking business, which has positively impacted Global Banking and Markets revenues, increasing by 17% year over year [9][10] - Goldman Sachs raised a record $33 billion in alternatives in Q3 2025, with expectations to raise $100 billion in alternatives for the year [12] - The company plans to expand its private credit portfolio to $300 billion by 2029 and is pursuing international growth [13] Liquidity and Capital Distribution - Goldman Sachs maintains a strong liquidity profile, with cash and cash equivalents of $169 billion as of September 30, 2025 [16] - The company increased its quarterly dividend by 33.3% to $4 per common share and has a $40 billion share repurchase plan [17][18] - The firm has consistently returned capital to shareholders, with a five-year annualized dividend growth rate of 22% [17] Valuation and Earnings Outlook - The stock is trading at a forward price/earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.05, slightly above the industry average of 14.86 [23] - Earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been revised upward, reflecting resilient earnings prospects [21][26] - Given the favorable momentum in dealmaking and asset management, holding onto Goldman Sachs' stock may be beneficial for investors [26]

Core Viewpoint - The Indian equity market has experienced significant underperformance in 2023, with the Nifty 50 index only increasing by approximately 5% year to date, contrasting sharply with a 22% gain in the previous year and lagging behind many Asian markets that have surged over 30% [1][2] Group 1: Causes of Underperformance - Disappointing corporate earnings growth, subdued domestic consumption, and adverse tariff disputes, including new U.S. tariffs, have negatively impacted export-sensitive sectors and contributed to rupee depreciation [4] - Domestic political uncertainty, a slowdown in capital expenditure (capex), and a shift of global capital to safer markets have pressured Indian equities, with foreign investors estimated to have sold over $30 billion in Indian equities over the past year [5] - The Indian equity market's valuation remains high, trading at approximately 22.3 times forward earnings, about 20% above its long-term norm, which has raised concerns [5][6] Group 2: Positive Outlook - Goldman Sachs has upgraded the Indian equity market to "overweight" after 13 months of a "neutral" rating, citing supportive policy changes such as anticipated RBI rate cuts, liquidity easing, and reductions in the Goods and Services Tax (GST) [7] - Record equity purchases by Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) and steady retail Systematic Investment Plan (SIP) inflows have stabilized the market amid foreign portfolio investor (FPI) selling [8] - The end of a year-long cycle of earnings downgrades suggests a clear earnings rebound is expected, contributing to a bullish outlook [9] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Several Indian ETFs are highlighted as potential investment opportunities, including: - **iShares MSCI India ETF (INDA)**: Net assets of $9.57 billion, top holdings include HDFC Bank (8.12%), Reliance Industries (6.59%), and ICICI Bank (5.18%), with a year-to-date gain of 4% [11][12] - **WisdomTree India Earnings Fund (EPI)**: Total assets of $2.85 million, top holdings include Reliance Industries (7.49%), HDFC Bank (6.17%), and ICICI Bank (5.26%), with a year-to-date gain of 3.1% [13] - **iShares India 50 ETF (INDY)**: Total assets of $690.23 million, top holdings include HDFC Bank (12.73%), Reliance Industries (8.53%), and ICICI Bank (8.14%), with a year-to-date gain of 5.2% [14] - **Franklin FTSE India ETF (FLIN)**: Total assets of $2.59 billion, top holdings include HDFC Bank (7.13%), Reliance Industries (6.45%), and ICICI Bank (4.54%), with a year-to-date gain of 3.6% [15]