It's Jordan Jackson. Nice to have you here at Post9 as well. It's a pretty big week.Got the Fed, you got Oracle, Broadcom. What are you thinking about. >> Well, we're keeping an eye on the Fed.Obviously, we think the Fed's going to cut rates. Um I think you are going to see a number of dissensions. Obviously, uh Mir's likely going to favor more aggressive easing.We could see a couple descents uh for for no easing at all. It's funny when we were uh penning our outlook AI lift and economic drift, uh we titled ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Broadcom has increased due to rumors regarding a potential business deal with Microsoft, which may involve Broadcom taking over the AI chip business currently handled by Marvell Technology [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Broadcom shares rose by 3.9% on positive AI news, reaching a current price of $399.28 [1][4]. - The market capitalization of Broadcom is approximately $1.843 trillion, with a day's trading range between $397.50 and $407.28 [4]. Group 2: Analyst Opinions - JPMorgan analyst Harlan Sur maintains that Microsoft's contract with Marvell is "solidly intact," suggesting skepticism about the rumors [3]. - Despite the uncertainty, investors are reacting to the rumors by buying Broadcom stock and selling Marvell, which has seen a decline of over 7% [3]. Group 3: Valuation Concerns - Broadcom's stock is currently priced at 74 times trailing free cash flow and 97.5 times trailing earnings, indicating a high valuation [6]. - Analysts project a long-term earnings growth rate of about 31% for Broadcom, resulting in a PEG ratio exceeding 3.0, which raises concerns about the stock being overpriced if the rumored deal does not materialize [6][7].

Core Insights - The article discusses the performance of third quarter earnings releases and highlights the investment strategy of JR Research, an opportunistic investor recognized for his analytical skills in technology and growth sectors [1]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - JR Research focuses on identifying attractive risk/reward opportunities that can potentially generate alpha above the S&P 500, emphasizing robust price action and fundamentals [1]. - The investment approach combines price action analysis with fundamentals, avoiding overhyped stocks while targeting beaten-down stocks with recovery potential [1]. - The investing group Ultimate Growth Investing aims to identify high-potential opportunities across various sectors, focusing on growth stocks with strong fundamentals and attractive valuations [1]. Group 2: Performance and Recognition - JR Research has been recognized by TipRanks and Seeking Alpha as a top analyst, particularly in technology, software, and internet sectors, as well as for growth and GARP strategies [1]. - The investment outlook for identified opportunities is typically set at 18 to 24 months for the thesis to materialize [1].

Core Insights - The article discusses the performance of third quarter earnings releases and highlights the ongoing interest in certain companies despite most earnings reports being released [1] Group 1: Analyst Profile - JR Research is recognized as a Top Analyst by TipRanks and Seeking Alpha, focusing on Technology, Software, Internet, Growth, and GARP [1] - The analyst identifies attractive risk/reward opportunities that could generate alpha above the S&P 500, demonstrating outperformance with selected picks [1] - The investment strategy combines price action analysis with fundamental investing, avoiding overhyped stocks while targeting undervalued ones with recovery potential [1] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The investing group Ultimate Growth Investing specializes in identifying high-potential opportunities across various sectors, focusing on stocks with strong growth potential and contrarian plays [1] - The investment outlook is typically 18 to 24 months, aiming to capitalize on growth stocks with robust fundamentals and attractive valuations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Invesco QQQ Trust is highlighted as a leading investment option for exposure to large-cap tech stocks, particularly those involved in artificial intelligence (AI) and related technologies, offering diversification and strong historical performance [1][2][3]. Fund Overview - The Invesco QQQ Trust tracks the Nasdaq-100 index, which includes the 100 largest non-financial stocks in the Nasdaq, with an expense ratio of 0.20% [5]. - The fund has a significant allocation to technology stocks, comprising 64% of its holdings, with consumer discretionary companies making up 18.3% [6]. Performance Metrics - The QQQ has consistently outperformed the Nasdaq Composite over various time frames, with total returns of 21.3% over the past year, 117.2% over three years, and 497.8% over ten years [7]. - A $10,000 investment in the QQQ 20 years ago would be worth $106,600 today, compared to $89,000 for the same investment in the Nasdaq Composite [7]. Top Holdings - The top 10 holdings of the QQQ account for 53% of the fund, with Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft being the largest contributors [9]. - Most of these companies are involved in AI chip design and development, with Netflix leveraging AI for its streaming services [9][10]. Industry Impact - The fund includes leading cloud computing providers and major players in various tech sectors, contributing to the development of new economic infrastructure [10]. - The companies within the QQQ are established with substantial resources and profitability, with a median market capitalization of $2.44 trillion [13]. Investment Rationale - Investing in the QQQ is presented as a strategy for above-average returns, providing exposure to top tech stocks engaged in significant AI advancements while mitigating risks associated with less established companies [14].

Core Viewpoint - Broadcom Inc. is expected to report stronger-than-anticipated quarterly results driven by increasing demand for artificial intelligence chips and data center networking products [1] Group 1: Financial Performance Expectations - Analyst Harlan Sur anticipates Broadcom will achieve total revenue of approximately $17.5 billion for the October quarter, with AI revenue projected between $6.5 billion and $6.7 billion, surpassing consensus estimates [3] - For the January quarter, management is expected to guide total revenue above $19 billion and AI revenue close to $8 billion, supported by momentum from AI networking and production ramps [4] - Over fiscal 2025, Broadcom is projected to generate around $20 billion to $21 billion in AI revenue, reflecting a year-over-year increase of approximately 60% [5] Group 2: Market Trends and Product Catalysts - The demand for AI products, improving non-AI semiconductor trends, and VMware revenue synergies are key drivers for Broadcom's growth [2] - Continued strength in products such as Google's Tensor Processing Unit (TPU) v6 and Tomahawk 5 networking switches are expected to contribute significantly to revenue [3] - Non-AI semiconductor markets are anticipated to recover gradually, while VMware is expected to maintain strong renewals and upsell to higher-value solutions [6] Group 3: Company Position and Financial Health - Broadcom is recognized for its best-in-class gross margins, operating margins, and free cash flow profile, with strong double-digit free cash flow growth forecasted [7] - The company is positioned as a leading supplier of custom AI ASICs and cloud networking chips, making it a top pick in the semiconductor sector [7] Group 4: Stock Performance - Broadcom shares increased by 2.68% to $400.68, nearing its 52-week high of $403.00 [8]

Lumentum Conference Call Summary Company Overview - Lumentum is primarily an infrastructure provider focused on data centers, offering semiconductor components and systems to hyperscalers and data center operators [5][6][10] Core Business Segments - **Lasers and Transceivers**: Lumentum specializes in two main types of lasers used in data centers: Continuous Wave (CW) lasers and Externally Modulated Lasers (EMLs). The company predominantly manufactures EMLs, holding approximately 50% to 60% of the global EML market [9][10] - **Emerging Technologies**: The company is also exploring ultra-high power lasers for scale-up and scale-out applications within data centers [10] Market Dynamics - **Demand vs. Supply**: Lumentum is currently facing a supply-demand imbalance, estimating to be 30% behind demand by mid-2026 despite plans to increase capacity by 40% [18][19] - **Capacity Expansion**: The company is virtualizing its indium phosphide fabs to optimize production and meet increasing demand [20][21] Product Development and Trends - **200 Gig EMLs**: The company anticipates that 200 gig EMLs will constitute 10% of volumes in Q1 2026, increasing to 25% by Q4 2026, which will positively impact revenue and margins [22][25] - **Optical Circuit Switches (OCS)**: Lumentum sees significant growth potential in the OCS market, with expectations to grow from $10 million in Q1 to $100 million by Q4 2026 [38][40] Competitive Landscape - **Vertical Integration Risks**: While competitors are exploring vertical integration, Lumentum has opted to focus on components rather than integrated modules, which may mitigate risks associated with competition [16][17] - **Co-Packaged Optics**: The company views co-packaged optics as a growth opportunity, with expectations for material revenue contributions starting in the latter half of 2026 [46][50] Future Outlook - **Growth Drivers**: Lumentum anticipates strong contributions from OCS, scale-out, and scale-up optics in 2026, which are not yet reflected in current financial projections [64][65] - **Market Position**: The company believes its core business, particularly in EMLs and emerging technologies, positions it well for future growth, with optimism about the optics market resurgence [63][66] Key Takeaways - Lumentum is strategically positioned in the data center infrastructure market, focusing on lasers and transceivers, with a strong emphasis on EMLs - The company is addressing supply chain challenges while expanding capacity to meet growing demand - Future growth is expected from new product developments and market opportunities, particularly in OCS and co-packaged optics, indicating a positive outlook for the company in the coming years [64][65]

Earnings Calendar Overview - Retail investors are preparing for earnings reports this week, with notable companies scheduled to release their results [1] - The earnings calendar includes major names such as Toll Brothers, GameStop, Oracle, and Broadcom [1][4][5][9] Company-Specific Insights - **Toll Brothers, Inc. (NYSE:TOL)**: Expected to report Q4 earnings of approximately $4.89 per share on $3.3 billion in revenue, with a focus on luxury demand offsetting housing affordability challenges [2][3] - **GameStop Corp. (NYSE:GME)**: Anticipated to report third-quarter earnings of 20 cents per share and revenue of $987.28 million [4] - **Oracle Corp. (NYSE:ORCL)**: Analysts project earnings of $1.64 per share and revenue of $16.22 billion, with attention on capital expenditures for AI and cloud revenue growth [5][8] - **Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO)**: Expected to report earnings of $1.86 per share on revenue of $17.49 billion [9] Additional Companies Reporting - Other companies reporting include Chewy, Inc. (NYSE:CHWY), Uranium Energy Corp. (AMEX:UEC), Hello Group Inc. (NASDAQ:MOMO), Ciena Corp. (NYSE:CIEN), The Lovesac Co. (NASDAQ:LOVE), and Rent the Runway, Inc. (NASDAQ:RENT) [4][8][10]

Market Overview - The market is currently experiencing a bidding war between Paramount and Netflix for Warner Brothers, which is influencing trading dynamics [1] - Anticipation is building for the upcoming FOMC meeting, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut, contributing to a bullish sentiment in small-cap stocks [3][4] - Economic data releases, including jobs data from Jolt and ADP, are expected to impact market movements this week [5] Company-Specific Developments - Microsoft is reportedly in talks with Broadcom to switch chip suppliers, which has negatively impacted Marll's stock, causing a decline of approximately 9% [10][11] - Marll's reliance on a limited number of large customers makes it vulnerable to revenue impacts from losing clients like Microsoft [10][12] - Oracle's upcoming earnings report is highly anticipated, with analysts concerned about the company's debt levels and the potential impact of AI market dynamics on its stock [14][15][18] Commodity Insights - China's trade surplus has reached a record of over $1 trillion, indicating a normalization in trade dynamics between the U.S. and China [19] - Copper prices are experiencing significant fluctuations, with the London Metals Exchange contract hitting an all-time high, while U.S. contracts remain at a discount [21] - Natural gas is facing a pullback after a recent surge, with significant trading activity observed in December and January contracts [24][25]

Andrii Yalanskyi/iStock via Getty Images The following segment was excerpted from the Impax U.S. Sustainable Economy Fund Q3 2025 Commentary. Contributors Intel (INTC) (Information Technology, Semiconductors) rallied strongly in September as the company announced a partnership with Nvidia on integrating ...