>> All right welcome back. We're going to talk about some stocks today that are falling and falling pretty sharply. I've got a number in front of me.We're going to start with UnitedHealth. They missed. They say their earnings are going to be worse than expected.Stephanie Link owns the stock. What do you think. >> It wasn't about the quarter. It was about the guidance.2025 at $16 was lower than kind of worst case scenario. I thought it was going to be something like $18. So that's obviously disappointing.But ...

Core Viewpoint - Sirius XM (SIRI) is expected to report second-quarter 2025 results on July 31, with anticipated revenue of $2.13 billion, reflecting a 2.13% decrease year-over-year, and earnings per share estimated at 79 cents, indicating a 1.25% decline from the previous year [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SIRI's second-quarter 2025 revenues is $2.13 billion, which is a 2.13% decrease from the same quarter last year [1]. - The earnings consensus is pegged at 79 cents per share, which is a slight increase of one cent over the past 30 days but represents a 1.25% decline from the year-ago quarter [1]. - SIRI's bottom line has missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in two of the last four quarters, with an average negative surprise of 49.51% [2]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Performance - Revenue pressures and subscriber softness are expected to impact SIRI's second-quarter results, following a 4% year-over-year revenue decline in the first quarter due to shrinking subscriber revenues from a declining legacy satellite base [4]. - The average revenue per user (ARPU) fell significantly to $14.86 in the first quarter, reflecting ineffective promotional pricing strategies, and further erosion in ARPU is anticipated in the second quarter [5]. - Increased competition from streaming services like Spotify, Apple Music, and YouTube is pressuring SIRI's subscriber growth and pricing flexibility [6][7]. Group 3: Cost and Revenue Dynamics - SIRI faced an 11% year-over-year increase in subscriber acquisition costs (SAC) to $100 million in the first quarter, which is expected to pressure margins and increase churn rates in the second quarter [8]. - Advertising revenue dropped to $394 million in the first quarter, reflecting broader economic uncertainty, and although podcast revenues rose by 33%, they were insufficient to offset weaknesses in traditional revenue channels [10].

So many big movers today. Look at shares of Spotify taking a dive after the music streamer posted a loss and weaker guidance for the current quarter. And though the company said AI has helped with user engagement, it isn't bolstering the ad business enough and could also pose a threat.Julia Borston digs into all that in today's tech check. Julia, so what's the story here. Well, Sarah, Spotify's declining ad revenue is the company's biggest depo disappointment.So now Spotify needs to deploy AI to drive ad gr ...

Spotify shares dropped 7% in premarket trading Tuesday after the Swedish audio streaming giant reported worse-than-expected second-quarter results and issued a mostly disappointing outlook. https://t.co/fJPLJG7qzs ...

Spotify hints at a more chatty voice AI interface in the future | TechCrunch https://t.co/RvF1PACBI9 ...

Market Overview - Pre-market futures are up due to various earnings reports, economic data, and a significant railway merger [1] - The Dow is slightly down by 12 points, while the S&P 500 is up by 11 points, and the Nasdaq is up by 88 points [1] Railway Merger - Union Pacific (UNP) is set to acquire Norfolk Southern (NSC) for $72 billion, or $320 per share, creating the first trans-continental railroad in the U.S. [2] - The merger requires approval from the Surface Transportation Board, and the current administration may favor the deal despite monopolistic concerns [3] Trade Balance - The Advanced U.S. Trade Balance in Goods for June shows a pullback to -$86 billion, better than expected, driven by a 4.2% decline in imports [4] - This indicates a slowdown in trade due to higher tariff expectations, contrasting with the record-low trade balance of -$162 billion in March 2025 [4] Q2 Earnings Highlights - Boeing (BA) reported a Q2 loss of $1.24 per share, improving by 30 cents over consensus, with revenues of $22.75 billion exceeding estimates by 4.1% [5] - UnitedHealth (UNH) missed earnings expectations with $4.08 per share versus $4.84 expected, while revenues of $111.6 billion slightly beat estimates [6] - Royal Caribbean (RCL) reported earnings of $4.38 per share, surpassing consensus by 6.8%, despite revenues of $4.54 billion missing projections [7] - Spotify (SPOT) reported a loss of $0.48 per share, significantly missing the $2.13 consensus estimate, with revenues of $4.76 billion also falling short [8]

Market Trends & Earnings - Mixed earnings reports create market uncertainty, with some companies like UPS and Spotify underperforming [3] - Tariffs are impacting consumer-focused companies like Whirlpool, leading to a nearly 13% stock decrease, and Hamilton Beach Brands, down more than 7% [5][7] - Consumer staples and consumer discretionary sectors are lagging in the S&P 500, with consumer staples up just over 1% compared to the S&P 500's over 8% increase [19] - Proctor & Gamble (PNG) warns of a $1 billion tariff hit, leading to price hikes and consumers trading down to cheaper products [38][10] Tariff Impact & Inflation - Tariffs are identified as a risk, particularly for individual stocks, with Stanley Black & Decker calling out an $800 million profit impact [14][12] - PNG views tariffs as inherently inflationary, increasing the cost of importation [55] - Tariffs on naturally sourced ingredients without US substitutes could incentivize companies to move production out of the US [53] Monetary Policy & Market Valuation - The market expects the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates steady, but a rate cut may be signaled for the fall [8][11] - S&P 500 PE ratios are at record highs, driven by momentum rather than earnings growth [24] - Corporate credit spreads are at their lowest levels in several decades, suggesting limited fuel for further PE expansion [27] Company Specifics - Starbucks shares have underperformed in the summer market rally, up only 16%, with focus on China business, sales caution, and new initiatives [35] - PNG's organic sales increased by 175 billion over seven years, placing them in the 84th percentile of the S&P 500 [40] - PNG's profit increased by 6 billion, placing them in the 92nd percentile of the S&P 500, with a $180 billion incremental market cap [41] Gold Market - Fidelity forecasts gold prices at $3,000 per ounce, potentially reaching $4,000 by the end of next year, driven by a weaker dollar and tariff impacts [31][32]

Core Insights - Spotify Technology (SPOT.US) shares fell over 10%, closing at $624.89 following the release of its Q2 earnings report [1] Financial Performance - Q2 revenue was €4.19 billion, below the expected €4.27 billion [1] - The company reported a net loss of €86 million, a significant decline from a profit of €274 million in the same quarter last year, primarily due to an 8% increase in operating expenses to €914 million [1] - Q2 paid subscription revenue was €3.74 billion, slightly below the market expectation of €3.79 billion [1] - Monthly active users reached 696 million, exceeding the market expectation of 689.23 million [1] Future Guidance - For Q3 2025, the company provided revenue guidance of €4 billion, which is lower than the analyst consensus of $5.25 billion [1]

Core Viewpoint - Spotify's second-quarter performance fell short of market expectations, leading to a significant drop in stock price by over 10% [1] Financial Performance - Spotify reported second-quarter revenue of €4.19 billion, below the expected €4.27 billion [1] - The company transitioned from a profit of €274 million in the same quarter last year to a loss of €86 million this year, primarily due to an 8% increase in operating expenses to €914 million [1] - Paid subscription revenue for the second quarter was €3.74 billion, slightly below the market expectation of €3.79 billion [1] - Monthly active users reached 696 million, exceeding the market expectation of 689.23 million [1] Future Guidance - The company provided guidance for third-quarter revenue expected to be €4 billion, which is lower than the analyst consensus of $5.25 billion [1]

Group 1 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.1%, and the S&P 500 index increased by 0.3% [2] - Novo Nordisk's stock fell approximately 22% after the company appointed a new CEO and lowered its full-year guidance, citing underwhelming sales of the weight loss drug Wegovy [2] - Boeing's stock increased by about 1% due to strong commercial aircraft deliveries, with Q2 revenue growing by 35% year-over-year, and net loss narrowing to $610 million [2] - Spotify's stock declined by around 7% as the company's Q2 revenue fell short of expectations [2]