2026 年 02 月 10 日 下一站，风起服务消费 ——美日中消费演进启示录 相关研究 《中国服务业含"科"量持续提升 ——申万宏源服务业投资机会梳理 专题报告》 2026/01/10 《温和通胀重启，关注顺周期—— 2026 年行业比较投资策略》 2025/11/17 《"宁组合"是否调整充分？—— 2024 年春季行业比较之市场交易特 征篇》 2024/03/18 证券分析师 策 略 研 究 林丽梅 A0230513090001 linlm@swsresearch.com 郝丹阳 A0230523120002 haody@swsresearch.com 刘雅婧 A0230521080001 liuyj@swsresearch.com 冯彧 A0230525080001 fengyu@swsresearch.com 联系人 郝丹阳 A0230523120002 haody@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 行 业 比 较 证 券 研 究 报 ...

行业规模扩容叠加格局分化，差异化优势凸显成长机遇。全球录制音乐市场2024年达296亿美元，同比 +4.8%，连续十年增长，流媒体占比69%成核心动力；中国2022年跻身全球前五，2024年增速9.6%高于 美、欧成熟市场，版权保护加强与本土音乐创新驱动增长。2)在线音乐赛道竞争格局清晰：全球Spotify 以32%用户占比领跑，国内腾讯系(酷狗29%+QQ音乐25%)主导，网易云音乐凭借19%月活占比，以"社 区粘性+原创内容"在Z世代(用户占比超90%)中形成差异化优势。3)版权生态从"独家垄断"转向"交叉授 权"，网易云通过合作华纳、索尼等厂牌，曲库达1.8亿首，获取腾讯音乐99%独家曲库，消除核心内容 缺口。 "内容-社区-技术"三轮驱动，构筑核心增长护城河。内容端，双轨并行补位：版权端覆盖华语、韩流、 独立音乐等多元品类，原创端通过"石头计划"、"云梯计划"孵化77.4万名独立音乐人、440万首原创歌 曲，自制曲目成爆款。社区端，高粘性生态显著：乐评总量12亿条(日均160万条)，歌单播放占比 70%-80%，2024年日活用户日均听歌78.9分钟，DAU/MAU超30%，用户粘性行业领先。技术端， ...

因为优异的品质表现， Mureka V 8 的发布，被认为是音乐行业的" ChatGPT 时刻"。但是，从工具 应用迈向社交平台，这是一个不小的跨越，昆仑天工有什么资源，可以支撑这一野心？ 从"可生成"跨越到"可发布" 音乐行业的" ChatGPT 时刻" 在 Mureka V 8 之前， AI 音乐大模型的生成效果，还有诸多不足之处，比如 AI 感太强、人声唱法 的匹配都不够、无法修改等。用户用 AI 生成音乐就像抽"音乐盲盒"，输入提示词， AI 吐出一段音 乐，仅有部分歌词或旋律达到心理预期，大量普通用户只能用来玩票。 2026 年 1 月 28 日，北京前门 Blue Note ， 昆仑万维 旗下的昆仑天工，发布 Mureka V8 音乐大 模型，在现场播放的 AI 音乐，其灵动的旋律、饱满的音色与精准的情感表达，展示了 Mureka V8 模型在音乐创作上的专业实力。 昆仑天工董事长兼 CEO 周亚辉 认为， Mureka V8 是最接近可用于音乐的大规模工业级生产的应 用，已经具备创作完整艺术表现力音乐作品的能力，让 AI 音乐 实现 从 " 可生成 " 迈向 " 可发布 "，成为一种音乐的新品类 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of measuring the quality of consumer attention in the media industry, rather than just the quantity of time spent on content [3][4] - A new analytical framework called the "Attention Equation" is introduced to better understand the true value of attention and its impact on revenue generation [5][15] Consumer Attention Landscape - There is a growing disparity between the explosive growth in content supply and the stagnation in consumer time spent on media, which has only increased by about 1% to 2% annually over the past decade [6][7] - The media landscape is characterized by an overwhelming abundance of content, leading to diluted consumer attention and challenges in converting engagement into revenue [7][11] Attention Value Discrepancies - Different media types exhibit significant variations in the value generated per hour of consumer attention, with live sports events commanding the highest value at $33 per hour, while digital media like podcasts generate much lower values [11][14] - The article highlights that traditional media still holds a relatively high monetization capability compared to digital media, despite the latter's growing consumption time [11][14] Attention Quality Factors - The "Attention Quality" (AQ) is identified as a critical factor influencing monetization differences across media types, comprising consumer focus levels and the specific tasks consumers aim to accomplish through media consumption [15][19] - Higher consumer focus correlates with increased spending, with a 10% increase in focus leading to a 17% rise in media spending [21][28] Consumer Segmentation - The article identifies three high-value consumer segments: "Content Enthusiasts," "Interactive Enthusiasts," and "Community Trendsetters," who exhibit both high attention and commercial value [23][24] - Approximately 40% of consumers fall into these high-value categories, while the remaining 60% have lower attention and commercial value [27][28] Implications for Media Stakeholders - The findings suggest that media companies should focus on the quality of attention rather than just the quantity, as this will drive better engagement and revenue outcomes [30][34] - Advertisers and content creators are encouraged to align their strategies with the attention quality metrics to enhance the effectiveness of their campaigns and content [31][33]

Core Viewpoint - Bandcamp's decision to prohibit the sale of music primarily generated by AI reflects a rational business defense aimed at preserving the value of human creators in an industry increasingly threatened by AI-generated content [1][4]. Group 1: Bandcamp's Business Model - Bandcamp operates as a direct sales market for independent musicians, maintaining a low commission rate of 10%-15%, which is significantly lower than industry averages [4]. - The platform's core strength lies in fostering a strong connection between independent musicians and their fans, where purchases represent not just audio files but also recognition and support for the creators [4]. Group 2: AI's Impact on Music Valuation - The current streaming industry's royalty distribution mechanism, based on play counts, creates a significant cost imbalance between human-created songs and those generated by AI, leading to a dilution of the value of human labor [5][8]. - The case of Michael Smith, who generated thousands of AI songs and manipulated play counts to extract over 70 million RMB from royalty pools, highlights the vulnerabilities in the current system [7]. Group 3: Copyright and AI Content - The U.S. Copyright Office has stated that works generated entirely by AI lack copyright protection due to the absence of a human author, yet these works can still earn royalties equivalent to human-created content [8]. - This situation poses a systemic risk to the value of independent music assets on platforms like Bandcamp, prompting the need for intervention [8]. Group 4: Future Challenges for Creators - A study by CISAC and PMP Strategy predicts that by 2028, nearly 25% of creators' income may be at risk, potentially resulting in losses of up to 4 billion euros (approximately 325.6 billion RMB) [10]. - Streaming platforms are increasingly favoring low-cost, standardized content over traditional artists, which could further threaten the livelihoods of human musicians [11][14]. Group 5: Consumer Trust and AI Music - A survey by Deezer and Ipsos revealed that 97% of respondents could not distinguish between AI-generated music and human-created music, indicating a significant trust issue among consumers [17][22]. - While consumers do not entirely reject AI music, they express discomfort when unaware of the content's origin, emphasizing the importance of transparency in music consumption [22]. Group 6: Bandcamp's Policy as a Market Signal - Bandcamp's ban on AI-generated music serves as a form of authenticity endorsement for users, aiming to restore trust and value in human-created music [22]. - The platform's decision reflects a broader industry trend towards establishing stricter labeling and pricing systems for music content, ensuring that human creativity is recognized and valued [22].

Core Viewpoint - Spotify is increasing prices for its premium plans in the US, which is expected to enhance revenue and profitability for the company [1][2]. Pricing Changes - Individual premium plans will rise to $12.99 from $11.99 - Duo plans will increase to $18.99 from $16.99 - Family plans will go up to $21.99 from $19.99 - Student plans will change to $6.99 from $5.99 [1]. Competitive Position - Following the price hikes, Spotify will become the most expensive music streaming platform compared to Apple Music and Amazon Music [2]. Financial Impact - Analyst Mark Mahaney estimates a 4% to 5% boost in sales due to the price increases, translating to an approximate $270 million boost to gross profit [3]. - Mahaney projects an estimated €842 million ($978 million) in incremental revenue from these price increases over three quarters of fiscal year 2026 [3]. Market Leadership - Spotify is viewed as the global leader in streaming audio, with strong user growth and improving profitability [4]. - The company is expected to see average revenue per user expansion supported by price increases across over 150 markets [4]. Analyst Ratings - Mahaney rates Spotify as Outperform with a price target of $750, indicating a 47% upside from current levels [4]. - 75% of the 41 sell-side analysts covering Spotify rate the stock as Buy or Strong Buy [4]. Subscriber Base - Spotify has 65 million US subscribers, with approximately 45% on individual plans and 44% on duo/family plans [6].

Core Insights - The article discusses the potential existence of an AI 'bubble' and the impact of media narratives on investor sentiment, particularly regarding the NASDAQ [1] - It emphasizes the importance of integrating technology into everyday life to mitigate market volatility and prevent disconnection between real-world experiences and market excitement [2] Group 1: Sweden's Technological Progress - Sweden's Home-PC reform in the 1990s aimed to place a computer in every household, which is credited with initiating significant technological advancements in the country [3] - Stockholm now boasts the highest number of unicorns per capita outside Silicon Valley, with notable AI startups like Legora valued at $1.8 billion and Einride raising $100 million [4] - The success of Swedish tech companies like Skype, Spotify, and Klarna has created liquidity moments that benefit the local ecosystem, fostering a culture of reinvestment among millionaires [7] Group 2: Factors Contributing to Sweden's Success - A digitally literate generation emerged from the Home-PC reform, leading to the establishment of globally competitive technology companies [6] - Sweden invests 3.57% of its GDP in Research & Development, the highest in Europe, and offers supportive policies for entrepreneurs, such as a six-month leave to start a business [9] - Cultural aspects, including a focus on aesthetics in software design and a high-trust environment, contribute to the success of Swedish companies [10][11] Group 3: Challenges and Global Implications - Despite its successes, Sweden faces challenges, including reliance on American investors for later-stage capital [12] - The Swedish approach to technology, characterized by broad acceptance and integration into daily life, serves as a model for other countries concerned about the rapid valuation of AI companies [13]

Core Viewpoint - The narrative around Alphabet has shifted from viewing AI as a threat to recognizing it as a significant opportunity, which is reflected in the company's stock performance and growth metrics [3][22]. Company Performance - Alphabet's stock has seen substantial growth, rising from $140 in April to $314, marking a 124% increase [2]. - The company has achieved a year-to-date increase of over 65%, reaching new highs of $328 [1]. AI Developments - Google Gemini, the company's AI initiative, has experienced a 7x increase in monthly active users year-over-year, with a 300% increase in user engagement compared to GPT's 67% [4][5]. - Daily active users of Gemini are averaging four queries per day, while GPT users average 7.5 queries [6]. Search and Cloud Business - Alphabet's search business has grown by 7% in paid clicks year-over-year, with the cost per click also increasing by 7% [9]. - Google Cloud has reported a 34% year-over-year revenue increase, with income up approximately 85% [17]. Streaming and Content - YouTube dominates the streaming market, capturing 13% of TV time in the US, compared to Netflix's 8% [19]. - The platform benefits from user-generated content, allowing it to maintain a competitive edge over Netflix, which relies on licensed and original content [20]. Competitive Landscape - The AI market is characterized by rapid competition, with various models vying for user engagement and market share [8][17]. - Despite being a late entrant, Google is leveraging its existing user base and search engine dominance to catch up in the AI space [13][14].

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