Core Viewpoint - Halper Sadeh LLC is investigating potential breaches of fiduciary duties by certain officers and directors of Upstart, Inc. [1] Group 1 - The investigation focuses on whether the actions of Upstart's leadership have harmed shareholder interests [1] - Long-term shareholders of Upstart may have options for seeking corporate governance reforms and financial restitution [1] - The law firm is offering information on legal rights and potential benefits for affected shareholders [1]

Core Viewpoint - Upstart Holdings has experienced a 27% decline in stock price over the past 30 days, presenting a potential buying opportunity for investors as the company prepares to release its third-quarter results on November 4, 2025 [1][3]. Company Overview - Upstart has developed an AI algorithm for credit assessments that analyzes over 2,500 data points, significantly more than traditional methods, leading to faster approvals and a better customer experience [5][6]. - The company primarily focuses on unsecured personal loans but is expanding into automotive and home equity line of credit (HELOC) segments [7]. Financial Performance - In the second quarter of 2025, Upstart originated 372,599 loans, a 159% increase year-over-year, with a total dollar value of $2.8 billion, marking a three-year high [7]. - Revenue for the second quarter surged by 102% year-over-year to $257 million, prompting management to raise the full-year revenue forecast to $1.055 billion for 2025, which would be the first time it crosses the billion-dollar mark [10][11]. - The company reported a net income of $5.6 million during the second quarter, indicating it is on track for its first profitable year since 2021 [12]. Market Position and Valuation - Upstart's algorithm has shown resilience during challenging market conditions, and it recently secured a new regional bank client [13][14]. - The stock is currently trading at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 5.6, which is a 50% discount to its historical average of 11.1 since its IPO in 2020 [14]. - To maintain its current P/S ratio, Upstart's stock would need to rise by 55% by the end of next year, indicating a compelling risk-reward scenario for investors [17].

Core Insights - Certain Wall Street analysts predict that shares of Upstart and Atlassian could see triple-digit returns in the next year despite their year-to-date declines of 15% and 30% respectively [1][2] Upstart Holdings - Upstart is an AI lending platform that enhances credit risk assessment by analyzing over 2,500 data points per applicant, improving accuracy compared to traditional FICO score systems [4] - The platform automates underwriting and optimizes customer acquisition, fraud detection, and default forecasting, allowing lending partners to approve more borrowers at lower interest rates [5] - Upstart's loans originated since Q2 2023 are projected to yield 11.3% annually, outperforming 10-year Treasury bonds by 7 percentage points [5] - In Q2, Upstart's total revenue surged 102% to $257 million, primarily driven by personal loans, which constitute 90% of total originations [6] - Non-GAAP net income improved to $0.36 per diluted share from a loss of $0.17 per diluted share year-over-year [6] - Wall Street anticipates Upstart's adjusted earnings to grow at 66% annually through 2027, making its current valuation of 60 times earnings appear relatively cheap [7] - Hal Goetsch from B. Riley Financial set a target price of $105 per share for Upstart, indicating a 102% upside from its current price of $52 [8] Atlassian - Atlassian specializes in work management and service management software, with its flagship product Jira being widely adopted across various departments [10] - The company was recognized by Gartner as a leader in work management software for both development and operations teams, providing a competitive advantage [11] - Atlassian has introduced AI agents to enhance productivity for both technical and non-technical teams, positioning itself well to benefit from AI advancements [12] - In Q4 of fiscal 2025, Atlassian reported a 22% revenue increase to $1.3 billion and a 48% rise in non-GAAP earnings to $0.98 per diluted share [13] - The adoption of AI products grew by 50% to 2.3 million monthly active users [13] - Atlassian's addressable market is estimated at $67 billion, expanding at 13% annually, with adjusted earnings expected to increase at 19% annually through fiscal 2027 [14] - Morgan Stanley set a target price of $320 per share for Atlassian, suggesting a 101% upside from its current price of $159 [8]

Core Viewpoint - Upstart is experiencing a resurgence in growth after a period of volatility and declining revenue, with favorable macroeconomic conditions and improved financial performance indicating a potential investment opportunity [1][4][5]. Group 1: Company Performance - Upstart's stock price has decreased by 23.5% year to date, but it trades at an attractive valuation of 19 times forward one-year earnings, suggesting a good entry point for investors [1]. - After two years of declining revenue, Upstart's revenue more than doubled year over year in the second quarter, and transaction volume increased by 159% [5]. - The company regained profitability on a GAAP basis a quarter earlier than expected, indicating a positive turnaround [5]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Factors - The Federal Reserve's prime lending rate and market interest rates have started to decline, which is beneficial for borrowers and enhances the lending environment [4]. - Lower interest rates facilitate loan repayments and reduce default risks, allowing Upstart to better identify creditworthy candidates for lenders [4][6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut the federal funds rate two more times before the end of the year, which should support Upstart's growth trajectory [6]. - Management anticipates a 73% year-over-year increase in sales for the third quarter, with a projected net income of $9 million [6]. - Upstart has significant long-term potential in the credit evaluation market, valued at $1 trillion, making it an attractive investment for risk-tolerant investors [7].

Core Insights - Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) experienced a decline of 2.69% in its recent trading session, closing at $46.50, which is significantly lower than the S&P 500's gain of 0.53% on the same day [1] - The company has seen a substantial loss of 29.78% over the past month, underperforming compared to the Finance sector's loss of 2.23% and the S&P 500's gain of 0.71% [1] Earnings Forecast - Upstart Holdings is set to release its earnings report on November 4, 2025, with an expected EPS of $0.42, reflecting an 800% increase from the same quarter last year [2] - Revenue is projected to reach $281.02 million, indicating a 73.32% increase compared to the year-ago quarter [2] Full Year Projections - For the full year, earnings are estimated at $1.66 per share and revenue at $963.44 million, representing increases of 930% and 51.36% respectively from the previous year [3] - Recent analyst estimate revisions suggest a favorable outlook on the company's business health and profitability [3] Analyst Ratings and Valuation - The Zacks Rank system currently rates Upstart Holdings as 3 (Hold), with the consensus EPS estimate remaining unchanged over the last 30 days [5] - The company is trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 28.79, which is a premium compared to its industry's Forward P/E of 12 [6] Industry Context - The Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry, to which Upstart belongs, ranks in the top 37% of all industries according to the Zacks Industry Rank [6] - The Zacks Industry Rank indicates that the top 50% rated industries outperform the bottom half by a factor of 2 to 1 [7]

Core Insights - Upstart Holdings (UPST) is expanding its services beyond personal loans, leveraging its AI-powered platform to enter new markets such as auto loans, home equity, and small-dollar credit, with these segments accounting for nearly 20% of new borrowers in Q2 2025 [1][8] - The company has more than doubled its revenues year over year and achieved GAAP profitability earlier than expected [1] Auto Lending - Auto loan originations surged 87% sequentially to $114 million in Q2 2025, driven by the adoption of Upstart's Auto Retail software among car dealerships [2][8] - A focus on simplifying financing has led to increased dealer-driven loan requests and finalized agreements [2] Home Equity - The home equity segment has seen a nearly ninefold increase in originations year over year, reaching $68 million, facilitated by advancements in instant property verification technology [3][8] - This technology allows borrowers to complete ownership and income checks in under a minute, streamlining the traditionally slow HELOC process [3] Small-Dollar Loans - Small-dollar "relief" loans have increased by 40% sequentially as Upstart tests its AI models across a broader borrower base [4] - The latest underwriting model, Model 22, has improved accuracy and conversion rates, supporting the growth of these new verticals [4] Diversification Strategy - Upstart plans to move most Auto and Home loans off its balance sheet by late 2025, relying on third-party funding and partnerships with banks and credit unions to support this diversification [4] Industry Comparisons - Other fintech companies like PayPal and Intuit are also diversifying their revenue streams, with PayPal expanding into merchant solutions and consumer credit, while Intuit has developed a full financial ecosystem [5][6] Valuation and Performance - Upstart's shares have increased by 16.8% over the past six months, although this performance lags behind the broader industry and the S&P 500 [7] - The current forward 12-month Price/Sales (P/S) ratio for Upstart is 3.77X, which is above the industry average of 3.52X, indicating that the shares may be overvalued [9] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimates for EPS for the full years 2025 and 2026 have been revised downward, but they still indicate significant year-over-year increases [10]

Core Insights - Upstart is positioned as a potential high-growth stock, leveraging its innovative AI-driven credit assessment technology to disrupt traditional credit reporting and scoring models [2][10][14] Company Overview - Upstart operates as a modern credit-reporting bureau, similar to established firms like Equifax, TransUnion, and Experian, while also incorporating credit-scoring capabilities akin to Fair Isaac's FICO model [3][4] - The company utilizes an AI algorithm developed by co-founder Paul Gu, which evaluates over 2,500 unique variables to provide a more comprehensive assessment of creditworthiness [5][6] Technology and Performance - Upstart's platform allows for 43% more loan approvals without additional defaults compared to traditional credit scoring methods, with over 90% of loan approvals being automated [7] - The adoption of Upstart's technology has increased significantly, with over 100 banks now utilizing its services, up from fewer than 60 in early 2022 [9] Financial Growth - Upstart has experienced consistent revenue growth, achieving profitability in Q2 of this year, with projected earnings per share increasing from $1.65 this year to $2.49 next year [10][15] - The total loans originated by Upstart in the previous year amounted to 697,092, valued at $5.9 billion, which is a small fraction of the overall U.S. loan market [11] Market Opportunity - The U.S. digital lending market is expected to grow at an annualized rate of over 13% through 2030, presenting a significant opportunity for Upstart to capture market share [12][13] - Despite current investor skepticism, analysts maintain a positive outlook, with an average one-year price target of $77.57, indicating a potential upside of nearly 60% from the current stock price of $48.58 [16]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of identifying undervalued stocks that are mispriced by the market as a strategy to position oneself effectively for the start of Q4 [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections - **Investment Strategy**: The article suggests that investors should focus on undervalued stocks to capitalize on potential market mispricing as Q4 approaches [1].

Core Viewpoint - Upstart Holdings, Inc. is set to report earnings on November 4, 2025, with significant anticipated growth in EPS and revenue compared to the previous year [2][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Upstart Holdings, Inc. closed at $52.37, reflecting a +1.18% change from the previous day, outperforming the S&P 500, which fell by 0.28% [1]. - The stock has decreased by 17.08% over the past month, underperforming the Finance sector's gain of 0.87% and the S&P 500's gain of 4.03% [1]. Group 2: Earnings Expectations - The upcoming earnings report is expected to show an EPS of $0.42, representing an 800% increase year-over-year [2]. - Revenue is projected to reach $281.02 million, indicating a 73.32% increase compared to the same quarter last year [2]. Group 3: Full Year Projections - For the full year, earnings are estimated at $1.66 per share, reflecting a +930% change from the previous year [3]. - Revenue for the full year is projected at $963.44 million, showing a +51.36% increase from the prior year [3]. Group 4: Analyst Forecasts - Recent revisions to analyst forecasts for Upstart Holdings, Inc. are crucial as they indicate changing business trends and analysts' confidence in performance [4]. - Positive revisions in estimates are associated with potential stock price performance [5]. Group 5: Valuation Metrics - Upstart Holdings, Inc. has a Forward P/E ratio of 31.18, significantly higher than the industry average of 12.1, suggesting it is trading at a premium [7]. - The Financial - Miscellaneous Services industry, part of the Finance sector, holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 90, placing it in the top 37% of over 250 industries [7]. Group 6: Zacks Rank System - The Zacks Rank system, which ranges from 1 (Strong Buy) to 5 (Strong Sell), has a strong historical performance, with 1 rated stocks averaging a +25% annual return since 1988 [6]. - Upstart Holdings, Inc. currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), indicating a neutral outlook [6].

Core Insights - Upstart Holdings (UPST) has experienced significant volatility, with a 34.5% decline in stock price over the past three months despite a strong first half of 2025, raising concerns about the credit landscape [1][8][17] Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, Upstart's revenues more than doubled year-over-year to $257 million, and loan originations surged to $2.8 billion, marking the highest volume in three years [5][8] - The company achieved GAAP profitability a quarter earlier than expected, reporting a net income of $5.6 million compared to a loss of $54.5 million a year ago, with contribution profit rising 85% to $141 million [6][8] - Management has guided for full-year 2025 revenues of approximately $1.05 billion and net income of $35 million, indicating a sustainable turnaround [7] Market Position and Competition - Upstart has underperformed compared to peers like LendingClub and Enova International during the recent downturn [3] - The company is expanding its lending portfolio beyond personal loans, with auto loan originations increasing over sixfold and home segment growth nearly ninefold, contributing over 10% to total volume [9] Technological Edge - Upstart's AI-driven credit underwriting model, Model 22, has improved separation accuracy by 17 percentage points compared to traditional models, enhancing conversion rates and reducing acquisition costs [11] - Automation remains a key advantage, with 92% of loans in Q2 being fully automated, allowing for faster approvals and lower interest rates [12] Valuation and Estimates - Recent estimate revisions indicate a downward trend for EPS estimates for 2025 and 2026, although year-over-year increases are still expected [13] - Upstart shares are currently trading at a forward Price/Sales (P/S) ratio of 4.08, above the industry average of 3.91, and at a premium compared to LendingClub and Enova International [15][16] Strategic Partnerships - Recent partnerships with credit unions reflect growing confidence in Upstart's AI platform, providing stable funding sources and expanding its reach into community-based lending networks [10]