Vi e w p o i n t | 12 Nov 2025 03:00:00 ET │ 14 pages US Semiconductors 3Q25 Microprocessor Market Share: AMD and ARM Both Gain Share Over Intel as Overall CPU Market Remains Strong. CITI'S TAKE On Tuesday, Mercury Research released estimates for 3Q25 microprocessor shipments and market share. Total 3Q25 MPU units were up 3.9% QoQ, above seasonality of up 2.4% QoQ driven by above-seasonal server and notebook CPU shipments. AMD and ARM both gained share over Intel as Intel lost 157 basis points QoQ and has 6 ...

Core Insights - Quantum computing is emerging as a significant technological advancement, potentially surpassing traditional computing capabilities by utilizing qubits instead of bits [2][4] - The Defiance Quantum ETF offers a diversified investment approach in the quantum computing sector, mitigating risks associated with stock picking in a volatile market [3][6] Group 1: Quantum Computing Potential - Quantum computing significantly enhances traditional computing power, with applications intersecting with AI and cloud computing [2] - The industry is still in its early stages, and while some companies have shown impressive returns, many lack products and revenue, leading to cash burn [5][7] Group 2: Investment Strategy - The Defiance Quantum ETF simplifies investment in quantum computing, providing exposure to both emerging quantum companies and established tech leaders like Advanced Micro Devices and Nvidia [6][7] - The ETF has returned over 387% since its inception, indicating strong performance despite the inherent risks of the sector [7] - The fund employs an equal-weighting strategy across nearly 80 holdings, reducing the risk of overexposure to any single stock [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's upcoming third-quarter earnings report is highly anticipated due to growing concerns about a potential AI bubble and the company's pivotal role in the AI chip market [1][2]. Group 1: Demand and Innovation - Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang indicated strong demand for the company's latest AI chip architecture, Blackwell, with cumulative shipments projected to reach approximately $500 billion over 2025 and 2026 [2][3]. - The company has maintained a gross margin above 70%, reflecting high profitability on sales, which is crucial for its ongoing success [5]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Rival Advanced Micro Devices has reported record quarterly revenue and introduced a strategy to lead the next generation of AI computing, highlighting the competitive environment Nvidia faces [3]. Group 3: Market Opportunities - Nvidia has been excluded from the Chinese market due to U.S. export restrictions, but Huang sees potential for Nvidia in China, estimating the market opportunity could be worth "a couple of 100 billion dollars by the end of the decade" [7][8].

Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO) supplies industry-leading networking equipment for data centers, including its Tomahawk switches which regulate how fast data travels between chips and devices. The company's AI accelerators have also become a popular alternative to traditional GPUs, because of their customizable nature.Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) is weaving its Copilot AI assistant into most of its flagship software products, including Windows, Bing, and 365 (Word, Excel, and PowerPoint). Its Azure cloud platform is al ...

Key Points Big tech hyperscalers are doubling down on investment in artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure. One pocket of the infrastructure realm that is becoming increasingly important is custom silicon. Broadcom holds an estimated 75% market share of the custom AI accelerator market. 10 stocks we like better than Broadcom › As big tech continues to pour record levels of capital into data center construction and chip procurement, semiconductor stocks have remained one of the strongest them ...

Summary of AMD Investor Day Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) - **Industry**: Semiconductors - **Market Cap**: $393.366 billion as of November 11, 2025 - **Stock Rating**: Equal-weight - **Price Target**: $260.00 Key Industry Insights - **AI Impact**: AI is accelerating across major markets including cloud, enterprise data centers, PCs, gaming, and embedded systems, benefiting AMD as a technology leader [4][10] - **Market Projections**: AMD anticipates a $1 trillion compute market by 2030, with "tens of billions" in Instinct GPU revenue by 2027 and an ~80% CAGR in its AI accelerator business [4][10] Core Strategic Pillars 1. **Compute Technology Leadership**: Emphasis on modular design and shared libraries for CPUs, GPUs, NPUs, and adaptive SoCs [4] 2. **Data Center Leadership**: Focus on MI450 and Helios systems as leadership platforms, with expectations of significant growth in data center GPU market share [5][12] 3. **Expanding AI Everywhere**: Targeting a 35% total revenue CAGR over the next 3-5 years, driven by >60% CAGR in data center and >10% CAGR in core businesses [10][19] 4. **Full-Stack/Open Software Enablement**: Significant investment in software ecosystem, with a 10x year-over-year increase in downloads of AMD's ROCm stack [14] Financial Projections - **Earnings Power**: AMD forecasts >$20 in EPS over the next 3-5 years, with gross margins expected to expand as the product mix shifts towards high-performance and AI products [19][28] - **Revenue Growth**: Projected GAAP revenue of $34.013 billion in 2025, with a gross margin of 51.7% [42] Market Share and Competitive Landscape - **AI Market Share**: AMD aims for a 12% market share in the AI silicon market by 2030, with each point of share valued at $10 billion [21][24] - **Server CPU Market**: Targeting >50% share in server CPUs within the next 3-5 years, driven by enterprise adoption of EPYC for cloud and hybrid workloads [14][19] - **Client & Gaming**: Expected to achieve 40% revenue share in client PCs and gaming over the next 3-5 years, with significant growth in Ryzen AI PC platforms [15] Risks and Considerations - **Market Uncertainty**: The AI market is characterized by high uncertainty, with AMD competing directly with NVIDIA for market share [21][23] - **Execution Risks**: AMD's success hinges on delivering competitive ROI metrics compared to incumbents, particularly in the AI space [21][37] Conclusion - AMD's investor day highlighted a robust growth strategy centered on AI and data center leadership, with ambitious financial projections and a clear focus on expanding market share across various segments. However, the company faces significant competition and market uncertainties that could impact its growth trajectory.

Summary of NVIDIA Corp (NVDA.O) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: NVIDIA Corp (NVDA.O) - **Industry**: Semiconductor, specifically focusing on graphics processing units (GPUs) and AI technologies - **Headquarters**: Santa Clara, CA Key Financial Insights - **Earnings Preview**: Expected earnings report on 11/19 with projected sales of $57 billion for the October quarter, surpassing the Street's estimate of $55 billion [1][28] - **Guidance for January Quarter**: Anticipated sales of $62 billion, compared to the Street's estimate of $61 billion [1][28] - **EPS Estimates**: Adjusted EPS estimates for FY26/27/28 increased by 2%/7%/8% to align with revised AI capex models, leading to a target price of $220 based on a 30x P/E ratio [1][36] Market Dynamics - **Supply Constraints**: Current supply bottlenecks are attributed to CoWoS capacity limitations at TSMC, impacting the ability to meet AI demand through 2026 [1][3] - **AI Demand vs. Supply**: Despite concerns about AI investment froth, supply is expected to remain below demand until 2027, with hyperscaler cloud revenues projected to accelerate in 2025 and 2026 due to enterprise AI adoption [3][4] Market Size and Growth Projections - **Data Center Semiconductors TAM**: The total addressable market for data center semiconductors is projected to reach $654 billion by 2028, a 16% increase from previous estimates [4][27] - **GPU/Custom ASIC Demand**: The increase in demand is primarily driven by key AI players like OpenAI, with GPU/custom ASIC TAM expected to grow significantly [4][27] Competitive Landscape - **Increased Competition**: Investor focus on the $100 billion OpenAI investment and rising TPU competition, alongside higher component costs affecting gross margins [2][36] - **Market Position**: NVIDIA is expected to maintain a significant share of AI accelerator investments due to its technology leadership and established customer base [23] Financial Performance Metrics - **Sales Revenue Growth**: Projected sales revenue growth rates for FY2025 to FY2028 are 125.9%, 114.2%, 61.0%, 43.0%, and 23.6% respectively [10] - **Gross Margin**: Expected gross margins for FY2026 are around 71.2%, with a slight increase to 76.3% by FY2028 [10] Risks and Considerations - **Downside Risks**: Potential risks include competition in gaming, slower adoption of new platforms, market volatility in auto and data center sectors, and impacts from cryptomining on gaming sales [36][37] Investment Strategy - **Recommendation**: Maintain a "Buy" rating on NVIDIA due to strong secular growth opportunities in AI [35][36] Conclusion - NVIDIA is positioned for significant growth driven by AI demand, despite current supply constraints. The company is expected to outperform market expectations in upcoming quarters, supported by robust financial metrics and a strong market presence in the semiconductor industry.

Core Insights - The tech sector is experiencing significant growth, with a 22% increase in 2025, outperforming the Nasdaq Composite [1][2] - Semiconductors are highlighted as a major investment opportunity, with the global market projected to grow from $583.38 billion in 2023 to $1.29 trillion by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 10.24% [3] Company Insights - Nvidia has shown remarkable performance, with a revenue of $46.7 billion in Q2 of fiscal 2026, a 56% year-over-year increase, primarily driven by data center sales [10] - The company's GPUs are critical for AI applications, leading to substantial market interest and investment returns, with a hypothetical $10,000 investment in early 2023 yielding $130,000 [6][10] - Nvidia's partnerships, including a $1.15 billion deal with Deutsche Telekom, further enhance its position in the AI and semiconductor markets [9] Fund Insights - The VanEck Semiconductor ETF offers diversification within the semiconductor sector, holding 25 companies with Nvidia as the largest component at 18.31% [11][12] - The ETF has seen significant growth, with a $10,000 investment three years ago now worth over $38,000, and it has an expense ratio of 0.35% [14] - The fund includes major players like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing and ASML, providing exposure to critical semiconductor manufacturing [13][14]

Core Insights - The article discusses the current market concerns regarding high valuations in the tech sector, particularly highlighted by Palantir's nearly 8% drop despite strong earnings, which contributed to a broader market sell-off [2][3] - It emphasizes the potential of deep value stocks as attractive investment opportunities amidst the ongoing AI boom and market volatility [4] Market Overview - Investor discussions are increasingly focused on the high valuations of tech stocks and the potential for a market correction, with Palantir's decline serving as a key example [2] - The S&P 500 fell by 1.17% and the Nasdaq by over 2% following the market reaction to Palantir's performance [2] Expert Opinions - CNBC's Jim Cramer noted that the market's focus on high-growth speculative stocks may lead investors to overlook other opportunities within the S&P 500, where many stocks are trading at reasonable valuations [3] - Cramer views Palantir's decline as a cooling moment for overheated valuations rather than a sign of weakness [3] - Goldman Sachs's David Solomon predicts a potential 10% to 20% drawdown in equity markets within the next 12 to 24 months [4] Investment Strategy - The article suggests that while high-growth tech and AI stocks dominate headlines, there are significant opportunities in deep value stocks, which are characterized by low valuations, steady earnings, and strong fundamentals [4] - The methodology for selecting deep value stocks includes screening U.S.-listed companies with a market capitalization over $2 billion, a forward P/E ratio of 8 or lower, a return on equity of at least 10%, and a dividend yield of at least 1% [7] Deep Value Stocks - The article presents a list of 12 deep value stocks, starting with Bread Financial Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:BFH), which has a forward P/E of 6.54, a return on equity of 14.78%, and a dividend yield of 1.45% [9] - Bread Financial's recent Q3 results exceeded analyst expectations with an EPS of $4.02, supported by a 5% YoY growth in credit sales [11] - Vale S.A. (NYSE:VALE) is highlighted as another deep value stock, with a forward P/E of 6.64, a return on equity of 13.27%, and a dividend yield of 6.6% [13] - Vale's Q3 results showed a 17% YoY EBITDA growth to $4.4 billion, driven by strong iron ore and base metals output [15] - Lincoln National Corporation (NYSE:LNC) is also included, with a forward P/E of 5.23, a return on equity of 23.08%, and a dividend yield of 4.17% [16] - Lincoln reported an EPS of $2.04 for Q3, beating expectations and marking its fifth consecutive quarter of adjusted operating income growth [18]

Core Viewpoint - Shares of Japan's SoftBank Group have declined significantly due to valuation concerns surrounding AI-related stocks, leading to a nearly 20% drop in value this week, equating to approximately $51 billion in market capitalization [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - SoftBank's stock fell by 7% on Friday, closing at JPY 21,700 ($141.36) after a previous gain of 2.9% [1]. - The stock has experienced a cumulative decline of nearly 20% this week, reflecting broader market trends affecting AI-related companies [1]. Group 2: Market Sentiment - Concerns about an "AI bubble" have emerged, with some experts likening current valuations of AI companies to the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s [2]. - Despite stronger-than-expected earnings from some high-profile stocks, the market sentiment remains bearish, as evidenced by a 4% decline in the Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF this week [6]. Group 3: Strategic Moves by SoftBank - SoftBank is actively strengthening its position in the AI sector through investments and acquisitions, including a major stake in OpenAI and the recent $5.4 billion acquisition of ABB's robotics division [3].