When I wrote my latest (rare) Sell rating on a stock on Seeking Alpha, it was just last year when I discussed CVR Energy, Inc. ( CVI ). I have now been writing for Seeking AlphaNow retired, I am an income-oriented investor seeking high yield income to support my lifestyle in retirement.I became deeply interested in the stock market beginning in late 2007 (bad timing for me but worse for my uncle) when I received an unexpected inheritance. Since that time I have done considerable research and vowed to make s ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For the full year 2025, the company reported consolidated net income of $90 million and EBITDA of $591 million [4] - The fourth quarter consolidated net loss was $116 million, with EBITDA of $51 million, impacted by accelerated depreciation and extended downtime [4][5] - The net loss attributable to CVI shareholders for Q4 2025 was $110 million, with losses per share of $1.10 and adjusted EBITDA of $91 million [7] Business Segment Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the petroleum segment, EBITDA for Q4 2025 was $73 million, a significant increase from $9 million in Q4 2024, driven by higher crack spreads and increased throughput [7] - The fertilizer segment reported adjusted EBITDA of $20 million for Q4 2025, down from $50 million in the prior year, affected by ammonia utilization rates and operational issues [11] - The renewable segment experienced a breakeven adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025, a decline from $9 million in Q4 2024, due to loss of tax credits and reduced throughput [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Combined total throughput for Q4 2025 was approximately 218,000 barrels per day, with a utilization rate of 97% [8] - Benchmark cracks for Q4 softened to an average of $22.70 per barrel, with realized margins adjusted for various liabilities at $9.92 per barrel [8][9] - RINs prices declined approximately 18 cents per barrel from Q3 2025, averaging $6.05 per barrel for Q4 [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to focus on safe and reliable operations, reevaluating commercial optimization opportunities to improve margin capture in the petroleum segment [18][19] - Plans include expanding asset footprint and pursuing geographic diversity while maintaining disciplined capital allocation [20] - The company is optimistic about refining sector fundamentals, anticipating steady demand growth for refined products and a slowdown in global refining capacity additions [21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism regarding RINs and the potential for full or partial SRE grants for Wynnewood Refining Company [23] - In the fertilizer segment, strong demand for nitrogen fertilizers is expected due to anticipated corn planting increases [24] - The company is optimistic about the Midcontinent market, expecting improved dynamics with new pipeline developments [49] Other Important Information - Cash flow from operations for Q4 2025 was breakeven, with free cash flow usage of $55 million [12] - Total consolidated capital spending for 2025 was $197 million, with projections for 2026 estimated at $200 million to $240 million [13] - The company ended the quarter with a consolidated cash balance of $511 million [14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Expansion plans and asset acquisition strategy - The company is looking for proactive engagement in M&A discussions, focusing on both refining and fertilizer sectors while maintaining financial discipline [28][29] Question: Dividend return expectations - Management indicated that a clear path to further debt reduction is necessary before considering a modest dividend return, emphasizing sustainability in any future dividend [31][33] Question: Ramping up WCS runs at Coffeyville refinery - The company is prepared to increase WCS processing due to favorable market conditions and has upgraded its facilities to handle increased throughput [38][39] Question: RIN prices and blending strategies - Management acknowledged the steep costs associated with RINs and is exploring options to blend more barrels and acquire additional blending capacity [42][43] Question: Capture rates and pipeline projects - The company is optimistic about improving margin capture rates and sees potential benefits from new pipeline infrastructure in the Midcontinent region [46][49]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For the full year 2025, the company reported consolidated net income of $90 million and EBITDA of $591 million [4] - The fourth quarter consolidated net loss was $116 million, with EBITDA of $51 million, impacted by accelerated depreciation and extended downtime [4] - The net loss attributable to CVI shareholders for Q4 2025 was $110 million, with losses per share of $1.10 and adjusted EBITDA of $91 million [7] Business Segment Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the petroleum segment, EBITDA for Q4 2025 was $73 million, a significant increase from $9 million in Q4 2024, driven by higher crack spreads and increased throughput [7] - The fertilizer segment reported adjusted EBITDA of $20 million for Q4 2025, down from $50 million in the prior year, affected by ammonia utilization rates and operational issues [11] - The renewable segment experienced a breakeven adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025, a decline from $9 million in Q4 2024, due to loss of tax credits and reduced throughput [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Combined total throughput for Q4 2025 was approximately 218,000 bbl per day, with a utilization rate of 97% [8] - RINs prices averaged $6.05 per bbl for Q4 2025, a decline from previous levels, impacting the company's capture rate [9] - The estimated accrued RFS obligation on the balance sheet was $72 million at year-end, representing 59 million RINs [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to focus on safe and reliable operations, reevaluating commercial optimization opportunities to improve margin capture in the petroleum segment [18][19] - Plans include expanding asset footprint and pursuing geographic diversity while maintaining a disciplined approach to capital allocation [20] - The company is optimistic about refining sector fundamentals, anticipating steady demand growth for refined products [21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism regarding RINs and the potential for SRE grants, emphasizing the economic harm caused by compliance with the RFS [23] - In the fertilizer segment, strong demand for nitrogen fertilizers is expected due to anticipated corn planting increases [24] - The company is optimistic about the Midcontinent market, expecting improved dynamics with new pipeline developments [49] Other Important Information - Cash flow from operations for Q4 2025 was breakeven, with free cash flow usage of $55 million [12] - Total consolidated capital spending for 2025 was $197 million, with projections for 2026 estimated at $200 million-$240 million [13] - The company completed a $1 billion senior notes offering to extend debt maturity profiles and improve financial flexibility [15][16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Expansion plans and asset acquisition strategy - The company is looking for proactive engagement in M&A discussions, focusing on both refining and fertilizer sectors while maintaining financial discipline [28][29] Question: Dividend return expectations - Management indicated that a clear path to further debt reduction is necessary before considering a return to dividends, emphasizing sustainability [32][33] Question: Ramping up WCS runs at Coffeyville refinery - The company is increasing WCS processing due to favorable market conditions and upgraded facility capabilities [38][39] Question: RIN prices and mitigation strategies - Management acknowledged rising RIN prices and is exploring blending more barrels and acquiring additional blending capacity to mitigate exposure [41][42] Question: Capture rates and pipeline projects - The company is optimistic about improving capture rates and sees potential benefits from new pipeline infrastructure in the Midcontinent [48][49]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For the full year 2025, the company reported consolidated net income of $90 million and EBITDA of $591 million [4] - The fourth quarter consolidated net loss was $116 million, with EBITDA of $51 million, impacted by accelerated depreciation and extended downtime at the fertilizer facility [4][6] - Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter was $91 million, with adjusted losses per share of $0.80 [6] Business Segment Data and Key Metrics Changes - Petroleum segment generated EBITDA of $411 million for the full year, with adjusted EBITDA of $73 million for Q4 2025, up from $9 million in Q4 2024 due to higher crack spreads and increased throughput [4][6] - Fertilizer segment EBITDA was $211 million for the full year, with Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $20 million, down from $50 million in the prior year due to planned turnaround and startup issues [4][11] - Renewable segment reported a loss of $22 million for the full year, with breakeven adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025, down from $9 million in Q4 2024 [4][10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Combined total throughput for Q4 2025 was approximately 218,000 barrels per day, with throughput utilization at 97% of nameplate capacity [7] - Benchmark cracks for Q4 softened to an average of $22.70 per barrel, with realized margin adjusted for various liabilities at $9.92 per barrel, representing a 44% capture rate [8] - RINs prices declined approximately 18 cents per barrel from Q3 2025 levels, averaging $6.05 per barrel for Q4 [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to focus on safe and reliable operations, reevaluating commercial optimization opportunities to improve margin capture in the petroleum segment [18][19] - Plans to expand asset footprint with a disciplined approach to capital allocation, targeting growth in both refining and fertilizer segments [20] - The company is optimistic about refining sector fundamentals, anticipating steady demand growth for refined products and a slowdown in global refining capacity additions [21] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management remains cautiously optimistic about the refining margins despite RINs pressures, expecting continued support from EPA actions regarding SRE petitions [22] - In the fertilizer segment, strong demand for nitrogen fertilizers is anticipated due to projected corn planting increases [23] - The company is optimistic about the Midcontinent market dynamics with new pipeline developments expected to enhance operational opportunities [49] Other Important Information - Cash flow from operations for Q4 was breakeven, with free cash flow usage of $55 million [12] - Total consolidated capital spending for 2025 was $197 million, with an estimated $200 million-$240 million for 2026 [13] - The company completed a $1 billion senior notes offering to extend debt maturity profiles and improve financial flexibility [14][15] Q&A Session Summary Question: Expansion plans and asset acquisition strategy - The company is looking for proactive engagement in M&A discussions, focusing on both refining and fertilizer sectors while maintaining financial discipline [26][27] Question: Dividend return expectations - Management indicated that a clear path to further debt reduction is necessary before considering a modest dividend return, emphasizing sustainability in any future dividend [30][31][32] Question: Ramping up WCS runs at Coffeyville refinery - The company is increasing WCS processing due to favorable market conditions and upgraded facility capabilities, aiming for throughput of 20,000 barrels per day [36][37] Question: RIN prices and blending strategies - Management acknowledged rising RIN prices and is exploring options to blend more barrels and acquire additional blending capacity to mitigate exposure [39][40][41] Question: Capture rates and pipeline projects - The company is optimistic about improving capture rates and sees potential benefits from new pipeline projects enhancing market dynamics in the Midcontinent [45][48]

Core Insights - The company reported a net sales of $131 million and a net loss of $10 million for Q4 2025, with an EBITDA of $20 million [1][6] - For the full year 2025, net sales reached $606 million, with an EBITDA of $211 million and a net income of $99 million, equating to $9.33 per common unit [6][4] - The board declared a distribution of $0.37 per common unit for Q4 2025, with full-year distributions totaling $10.54 per common unit [4][11] Financial Performance - Q4 2025 EBITDA decreased compared to Q4 2024 primarily due to lower production and sales volumes, alongside higher direct operating costs related to a planned turnaround at the Coffeyville facility [6][11] - Direct operating expenses for Q4 2025 were $81 million, including $14 million in turnaround expenses, with an increase of approximately $9 million from Q4 2024 [9][6] - Total ammonia production for Q4 was 140,000 gross tons, with 62,000 net tons available for sale, and UAN production was 169,000 tons [7] Market Conditions - Prices for UAN increased by approximately 55% and ammonia prices by about 32% compared to the prior-year period [8] - The company anticipates strong demand for nitrogen fertilizers in the spring planting season, with expectations of 95 million acres of corn to be planted in 2026 [12][27] - Global inventory levels for nitrogen fertilizers remain tight, influenced by geopolitical tensions and production capacity issues in key regions [13][14] Operational Updates - The ammonia plant utilization rate for 2025 was 88%, with Q4 utilization impacted by a turnaround and startup issues at the Coffeyville facility [4][5] - The company is focused on improving reliability and production rates through ongoing debottlenecking projects and capital expenditures [15][16] - Maintenance capital spending for 2025 was $57 million, with estimates for 2026 maintenance capital spending between $35 million and $45 million [9][10] Future Outlook - The company expects ammonia utilization rates to be between 95% and 100% in 2026, with direct operating expenses projected to be between $57 million and $62 million [11] - There is optimism regarding the spring planting season due to favorable weather conditions and early movement of ammonia [28][29] - The company is actively monitoring supply constraints and geopolitical risks that could impact nitrogen fertilizer markets [13][27]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q4 2025, the company reported net sales of $131 million, a net loss of $10 million, and EBITDA of $20 million [4][8] - For the full year 2025, net sales were $606 million, with an EBITDA of $211 million and a net income of $99 million, or $9.33 per common unit [8] - The fourth quarter EBITDA decreased compared to Q4 2024 primarily due to lower production and sales volumes and higher direct operating costs [8] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total ammonia production for Q4 was 140,000 gross tons, with 62,000 net tons available for sale, and UAN production was 169,000 tons [9] - UAN sales volumes were lower due to planned turnaround and startup issues, but prices for UAN increased by approximately 55% and ammonia prices by approximately 32% compared to the prior year [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted strong pricing for nitrogen fertilizers throughout the quarter, with expectations for continued strong demand due to a projected record crop year [6][13] - The USDA estimates corn yields of nearly 187 bushels per acre on 99 million acres planted, with soybean yields estimated at 53 bushels per acre on over 81 million acres [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on improving reliability and production rates through debottlenecking projects and plans to expand DEF production and load-out capacity [17] - A feedstock diversification and ammonia expansion project at the Coffeyville facility is underway, allowing for optimal use of natural gas and third-party petcoke [17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the spring planting season, citing strong demand for nitrogen fertilizers despite potential acreage reductions for corn [13][32] - Geopolitical tensions and natural gas supply issues in Europe are seen as risks that could impact nitrogen fertilizer supplies [15][16] Other Important Information - Direct operating expenses for Q4 2025 were $81 million, including turnaround expenses of approximately $14 million [10] - The company ended the quarter with total liquidity of $117 million, consisting of $69 million in cash and $48 million available under the ABL facility [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are you seeing in terms of UAN imports? - Management noted a decrease in imports from Trinidad due to a plant being down, keeping the UAN market tight [24] Question: Is current deferred revenue down due to less product pre-sold? - Management clarified it was a timing issue, with more activity expected in January and February [26] Question: Will ammonia and UAN pricing increase sequentially heading into Q1 2026? - Management confirmed that prices are expected to increase slightly from Q4 to Q1 [27] Question: Is the air separator issue at Coffeyville resolved? - Management expressed confidence that issues have been addressed and is in discussions with the service provider for future operations [28][29] Question: How does the acreage reduction for corn affect demand? - Management indicated that despite acreage reductions, strong demand is expected due to nitrogen depletion in the soil from previous planting seasons [31][32]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q4 2025, the company reported net sales of $131 million, a net loss of $10 million, and EBITDA of $20 million [4][8] - For the full year 2025, net sales were $606 million, with an operating income of $129 million and net income of $99 million, translating to $9.33 per common unit [8] - EBITDA for the full year was $211 million, with a distribution of $10.54 per common unit [5][8] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total ammonia production for Q4 was 140,000 gross tons, with 62,000 net tons available for sale, and UAN production was 169,000 tons [9] - UAN sales volumes were lower due to planned turnaround and startup issues, but prices increased by approximately 55% compared to Q4 2024, while ammonia prices rose by approximately 32% [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted strong pricing for nitrogen fertilizers throughout Q4, despite lower production and sales volumes [5][9] - The USDA estimates a record crop year for 2025, with corn yields of nearly 187 bushels per acre on approximately 99 million acres planted [13] - U.S. inventory carryout levels for corn are expected to be above the 10-year average, while soybean levels are below [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on improving reliability and production rates through debottlenecking projects at both plants, aiming for utilization rates above 95% [16][17] - Plans include expanding DEF production and load-out capacity, and a feedstock diversification project at the Coffeyville facility [17] - The board has reserved capital for future projects, expecting to spend over the next two years [17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the spring planting season, anticipating strong demand for nitrogen fertilizers due to depleted soil nitrogen levels [13][30] - Geopolitical tensions and natural gas supply issues in Europe are seen as risks that could impact nitrogen fertilizer supplies [14][15] - The company expects ammonia utilization rates to be between 95% and 100% in Q1 2026, with direct operating expenses projected at $57 million to $62 million [11][12] Other Important Information - Direct operating expenses for Q4 2025 were $81 million, including $14 million in turnaround expenses [10] - The company ended the quarter with total liquidity of $117 million, consisting of $69 million in cash and $48 million available under the ABL facility [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are you seeing in terms of UAN imports? - Management noted a decrease in imports from Trinidad due to a plant being down, keeping the UAN market tight [22] Question: Is current deferred revenue down due to less product pre-sold? - Management clarified it was a timing issue, with more activity expected in January and February [25] Question: Will ammonia and UAN pricing increase sequentially heading into Q1 2026? - Management confirmed an uptick in prices based on the current book of business [26] Question: Is the air separator issue at Coffeyville resolved? - Management expressed confidence that issues have been addressed and is in discussions with the service provider for future operations [27][28] Question: How does acreage down for corn affect demand? - Management remains optimistic about demand due to nitrogen depletion in soil and supply constraints [29][30]

分组1 - CVR Energy reported a quarterly loss of $0.8 per share, which is better than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.84, but worse than a loss of $0.13 per share a year ago, indicating an earnings surprise of +4.19% [1] - The company posted revenues of $1.81 billion for the quarter ended December 2025, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.09%, although this is a decrease from year-ago revenues of $1.95 billion [2] - CVR has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times over the last four quarters, indicating a trend of positive earnings surprises [2] 分组2 - The stock has underperformed the market, losing about 11.5% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 has returned zero [3] - The current consensus EPS estimate for the coming quarter is -$0.02 on revenues of $1.72 billion, and for the current fiscal year, it is $0.38 on revenues of $6.97 billion [7] - The Zacks Industry Rank for Oil and Gas - Refining and Marketing is currently in the bottom 14% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting a challenging environment for stocks in this sector [8]

Market Conditions and Risks - The company anticipates potential volatility in margins due to fluctuating crude oil and refined product prices, which could significantly impact financial results [44]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the Russia-Ukraine war and conflicts in the Middle East, may affect commodity prices and market conditions [44]. - The company faces risks related to labor supply shortages and potential labor disputes, which could disrupt operations [53]. - The reliance on significant customers poses a risk, as the loss of key clients may adversely affect financial performance [53]. - The company is subject to regulatory changes that could impact operations, particularly in relation to environmental laws and renewable energy initiatives [53]. - Cybersecurity risks are a concern, with potential incidents that could disrupt business operations and harm financial results [53]. - The company is monitoring inflationary pressures that could adversely affect operational costs and overall financial performance [53]. - Instability in capital, credit, and commodity markets could negatively impact the company's business operations [1]. Operational Strategies and Developments - The company is focused on expanding its nitrogen fertilizer segment, with specific projects aimed at improving production efficiency and capacity [49]. - There are expectations for the expansion of the alkylation unit at the Wynnewood refinery, which is projected to enhance operational capabilities [49]. - The company is exploring the use of natural gas as an alternative feedstock for nitrogen fertilizer production, which could impact ammonia production levels [49]. - The nitrogen fertilizer business is significantly dependent on third-party suppliers, which could adversely affect operations [1]. - The company's refining business employs hedging strategies to mitigate commodity price exposure and protect gross margins [440]. Financial Considerations - The company is authorized to issue up to 350 million shares of common stock and 50 million shares of preferred stock, which could dilute current equity ownership [1]. - A $1.00 per MMBtu change in natural gas prices would affect the cost to produce a ton of ammonia and UAN by approximately $14.29 and $5.86, respectively [441]. - As of December 31, 2025, there were $157 million of outstanding borrowings under the Term Loan subject to variable interest rates, with a hypothetical 50-basis point fluctuation in interest rates resulting in an annual change of $1 million in interest expense [443]. - A hypothetical 50-basis point fluctuation in interest rates would have resulted in a change of $103 million in the fair value of fixed-rate debt instruments [444]. - The company may not generate sufficient cash to service existing indebtedness, which could adversely affect its financial condition [1]. - The market for natural gas has been volatile, impacting the company's competitive position [1]. - The company faces risks related to compliance with the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS), including volatility in the price of Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) [442].

Financial Performance - CVR Energy's preliminary estimated consolidated net loss for Q4 2025 is projected to be between $125 million and $110 million, with a net loss attributable to stockholders between $120 million and $105 million[2]. - EBITDA for Q4 2025 is estimated to range from $40 million to $60 million, while Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $78 million and $102 million[11]. - For the full year 2025, net income is estimated to be between $81 million and $96 million, with Adjusted EBITDA expected to range from $380 million to $404 million[11]. Operational Insights - Total refining throughput for Q4 2025 is estimated to be between 210,000 and 220,000 barrels per day, with an ammonia utilization rate projected between 60% and 65%[2]. - The company anticipates no planned turnarounds in its Petroleum segment for 2026, which is expected to positively impact operations[2]. - The reversion of the renewable diesel unit at Wynnewood back to hydrocarbon processing was completed in December 2025, with expected operational benefits[2]. Financial Position - Cash and cash equivalents are estimated to remain stable at between $500 million and $520 million[2]. - Total long-term debt and finance lease obligations are projected to be between $1.7 billion and $1.8 billion[2]. Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about the future growth prospects following the completion of the renewable diesel unit reversion[12]. - Management emphasizes the importance of non-GAAP measures like EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA for evaluating performance and profitability[8].