www.ccxi.com.cn 国际宏观资讯双周报 2 月 3 日–2 月 25 日 ➢ 2026 年第 4 期 本周资讯一览 热点评论 ➢ 韩日政府关注美关税裁决后续动向 对美投资或将照常推进 经济 财政 政治 国际收支 ESG 主权信用 ➢ 惠誉将巴林主权信用等级由 B+下调至 B 评级展望稳定 主权与国际评级部 | 杜凌轩 | | 010-66428877-279 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | lxdu@ccxi.com.cn | | 王家璐 | | 010-66428877-451 | | | | jlwang@ccxi.com.cn | | 于 | 嘉 | 010-66428877-242 | | | | jyu@ccxi.com.cn | | 张晶鑫 | | 010-66428877-243 | | | | jxzhang@ccxi.com.cn | | 易 | 成 | 010-66428877-246 | | | | chyi@ccxi.com.cn | | 方菏阳 | | 010-66428877-567 | | | | hyfang@ccxi.com.cn | | ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported Q4 2025 sales of $360 million, an increase of approximately 9% year-over-year, with sales volume up about 11% due to the prior year's extended planned turnaround [8][9] - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $25 million, up $15 million from the previous year, resulting in an adjusted EBITDA margin of 6.9% [9][11] - Full-year adjusted EBITDA reached $157 million, with a margin expansion of 90 basis points to 10.3% [11][12] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Nylon Solutions, volumes declined sequentially as production rates were moderated to manage inventory in a softer demand environment [10] - Plant nutrients showed strong performance with increased volumes and pricing, particularly in granular ammonium sulfate, supported by sulfur nutrition demand [10][11] - Chemical intermediates pricing remained stable sequentially but was lower year-over-year, consistent with expectations as acetone pricing moderated from previous highs [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The agriculture and fertilizer market remains the largest end market for the company, with favorable ammonium sulfate supply-demand fundamentals and sulfur nutrition demand growing approximately 3%-4% [14] - Sulfur prices have increased significantly, settling at nearly $500 per long ton in Q1 2026, compared to $165 per ton in Q1 2025 [14][15] - The building construction market is expected to see a recovery in 2026, with third-party estimates indicating approximately 3% growth [17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on bolstering sustainable cash flow generation through risk-based prioritization of capital investments and operational execution [18][22] - A reduction in CapEx is expected for 2026, with planned spending in the range of $75 million-$95 million, down from $116 million in 2025 [19] - The company aims to optimize production output and sales volume mix while managing cash tax rates and maintaining a disciplined approach to capital investment [21][22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - The macro environment remains challenging, with raw material input costs expected to be a headwind, particularly in the first half of the year due to higher sulfur and natural gas prices [6][7] - Management anticipates continued strength in plant nutrients and expects acetone margins to remain near cycle averages, while nylon remains plateaued in its trough [6][14] - The company is confident in its ability to navigate current market conditions and create long-term shareholder value through its integrated business model and competitive advantages [22][68] Other Important Information - The company successfully executed planned turnarounds at the low end of its target spend range and delivered record annual production across key ammonia and sulfuric acid unit operations [4][5] - The company is actively managing its cash tax rate, which is anticipated to be below 10% for the year [21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Outlook on nylon and capacity closures - Management noted that Europe remains structurally long in nylon, with utilization hovering around 50-60%, and mentioned potential capacity closures from companies like Fibrant and DOMO [26][28] Question: Sulfur market dynamics - Management indicated that sulfur prices are at nearly 20-year highs, driven by stronger demand in agriculture and mining, alongside supply constraints [31][33] Question: Section 45Q carbon credits - Management confirmed that the endangerment finding does not impact the ability to claim Section 45Q credits, which are expected to be worth over $100 million through 2029 [36][39] Question: Ammonia and sulfuric acid production records - Management attributed record production to ongoing maintenance and capital investments, indicating potential for permanent increases in production capacity [47][49] Question: Input cost pressures - Management acknowledged significant increases in sulfur and natural gas prices, with expectations of margin challenges in the first quarter [56][58] Question: Planned turnaround activity - Management clarified that they are focusing on key compliance and preventative maintenance while aligning turnaround activities with necessary inspections [63][65]

CF Industries (NYSE:CF) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 19, 2026 11:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsBert Frost - SVP of Sales and Market DevelopmentChris Bohn - President and CEOMartin Jarosick - Vice President of Investor RelationsRich Hoker - VP of Interim CFO and Chief Accounting OfficerConference Call ParticipantsAndrew Wong - Equity Research AnalystBen Theurer - Equity Research AnalystChristopher Parkinson - Equity Research AnalystDavid Simmons - Equity Research AnalystEdlain Rodriguez - Equity Research An ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q4 2025, the company reported net sales of $131 million, a net loss of $10 million, and EBITDA of $20 million [4] - For the full year 2025, net sales were $606 million, with an EBITDA of $211 million and a net income of $99 million, or $9.33 per common unit [8] - The fourth quarter EBITDA decreased primarily due to lower production and sales volumes and higher direct operating costs associated with a planned turnaround [8] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total ammonia production for Q4 was 140,000 gross tons, with 62,000 net tons available for sale, and UAN production was 169,000 tons [9] - UAN sales volumes were lower due to the planned turnaround and startup issues, but prices for UAN increased approximately 55% and ammonia prices increased approximately 32% compared to Q4 2024 [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted strong pricing for nitrogen fertilizers throughout the quarter, with expectations for continued strong demand due to anticipated planting levels [6][14] - The USDA estimates a record crop year for 2025, with corn yields of nearly 187 bushels per acre on nearly 99 million acres planted [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on improving reliability and production rates through debottlenecking projects and is planning for ammonia expansion at the Coffeyville facility [16] - The board has elected to reserve capital for future projects, which are expected to be funded from reserves accumulated over the past several years [16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the spring planting season, citing strong demand for nitrogen fertilizers and tight global inventory levels [14] - Geopolitical tensions and natural gas supply issues in Europe are seen as risks that could impact fertilizer supplies [15] Other Important Information - Direct operating expenses for Q4 were $81 million, including turnaround expenses of approximately $14 million [10] - The company ended the quarter with total liquidity of $117 million, consisting of $69 million in cash and $48 million available under the ABL facility [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are you seeing in terms of UAN imports? - Management noted that UAN imports from Trinidad are lower due to a Nutrien plant being down, keeping the market tight for UAN [23] Question: Does the decrease in deferred revenue indicate less product pre-sold this year? - Management clarified that it was a timing issue, with more activity expected in January and February rather than December [25] Question: Will ammonia and UAN pricing increase sequentially heading into Q1 2026? - Management confirmed that pricing is expected to see an uptick from Q4 to Q1, based on the current book of business [26] Question: Is the air separator issue at Coffeyville resolved? - Management expressed confidence that the issues have been addressed and is in discussions with the service provider about future operations [27] Question: How does the acreage decrease for corn affect demand? - Management remains optimistic about demand due to the need for nitrogen replenishment in the soil, despite a slight decrease in acreage [29][30]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q4 2025, the company reported net sales of $131 million, a net loss of $10 million, and EBITDA of $20 million [4][8] - For the full year 2025, net sales were $606 million, with an EBITDA of $211 million and a net income of $99 million, or $9.33 per common unit [8] - The fourth quarter EBITDA decreased compared to Q4 2024 primarily due to lower production and sales volumes and higher direct operating costs [8] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total ammonia production for Q4 was 140,000 gross tons, with 62,000 net tons available for sale, and UAN production was 169,000 tons [9] - UAN sales volumes were lower due to planned turnaround and startup issues, but prices for UAN increased by approximately 55% and ammonia prices by approximately 32% compared to the prior year [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted strong pricing for nitrogen fertilizers throughout the quarter, with expectations for continued strong demand due to a projected record crop year [6][13] - The USDA estimates corn yields of nearly 187 bushels per acre on 99 million acres planted, with soybean yields estimated at 53 bushels per acre on over 81 million acres [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on improving reliability and production rates through debottlenecking projects and plans to expand DEF production and load-out capacity [17] - A feedstock diversification and ammonia expansion project at the Coffeyville facility is underway, allowing for optimal use of natural gas and third-party petcoke [17] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the spring planting season, citing strong demand for nitrogen fertilizers despite potential acreage reductions for corn [13][32] - Geopolitical tensions and natural gas supply issues in Europe are seen as risks that could impact nitrogen fertilizer supplies [15][16] Other Important Information - Direct operating expenses for Q4 2025 were $81 million, including turnaround expenses of approximately $14 million [10] - The company ended the quarter with total liquidity of $117 million, consisting of $69 million in cash and $48 million available under the ABL facility [11] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are you seeing in terms of UAN imports? - Management noted a decrease in imports from Trinidad due to a plant being down, keeping the UAN market tight [24] Question: Is current deferred revenue down due to less product pre-sold? - Management clarified it was a timing issue, with more activity expected in January and February [26] Question: Will ammonia and UAN pricing increase sequentially heading into Q1 2026? - Management confirmed that prices are expected to increase slightly from Q4 to Q1 [27] Question: Is the air separator issue at Coffeyville resolved? - Management expressed confidence that issues have been addressed and is in discussions with the service provider for future operations [28][29] Question: How does the acreage reduction for corn affect demand? - Management indicated that despite acreage reductions, strong demand is expected due to nitrogen depletion in the soil from previous planting seasons [31][32]

CF Industries (NYSE:CF) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 19, 2026 11:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsBert Frost - SVP of Sales and Market DevelopmentChris Bohn - President and CEOMartin Jarosick - Vice President of Investor RelationsRich Hoker - VP of Interim CFO and Chief Accounting OfficerConference Call ParticipantsAndrew Wong - Equity Research AnalystBen Theurer - Equity Research AnalystChristopher Parkinson - Equity Research AnalystDavid Simmons - Equity Research AnalystEdlain Rodriguez - Equity Research An ...

Summary of Green Methanol Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The green methanol industry is positioned as a key solution for decarbonizing the shipping sector, supported by policies and active adoption by shipping companies. Long-term production is expected to increase, with prices gradually decreasing due to technological advancements [1][2]. Core Insights - Green methanol offers significant emission reduction capabilities, achieving over 95% reduction compared to traditional fuels. Each ton of green methanol can convert 1.375 tons of CO2, which can substantially lower carbon emissions when widely adopted [1][3]. - The main constraint on the promotion of green methanol is its production cost. Electrolytic and biomass methanol production costs are significantly higher than traditional fossil-based methanol. The cost of electrolytic methanol ranges from $820 to $2,380 per ton, while biomass methanol costs between $564 and $930 per ton, compared to $100 to $250 per ton for traditional methanol [1][6]. - The International Maritime Organization (IMO) and the European Union have set stringent greenhouse gas reduction targets for the shipping industry, aiming for net-zero emissions by around 2050 and introducing global fuel standards [1][7][8]. Future Trends - The green methanol industry is currently in a growth phase, with increasing demand. Despite setbacks from the IMO meeting in October 2025, the ongoing energy transition and carbon neutrality policies are expected to drive green methanol as a crucial solution for shipping decarbonization [2]. - By 2025, it is projected that China will have a production capacity of approximately 10 million tons of green methanol, which could directly absorb 150 million tons of CO2 and indirectly absorb 330 million tons, equivalent to increasing forest carbon storage by 370 million cubic meters [5][21]. Production Routes and Technologies - Green methanol production methods include water electrolysis, biomass gasification, and anaerobic fermentation, each with its advantages and limitations. The electrolytic route relies on green electricity and carbon capture technology, while biomass routes are constrained by raw material supply [4][14]. - The cost of green hydrogen production, a key component in green methanol production, is expected to decrease significantly by 2050, potentially reaching $1.2 to $2.4 per kilogram due to advancements in renewable energy and electrolysis technology [17]. Regulatory Environment - The IMO's greenhouse gas reduction strategy includes targets for 2027 and aims for at least 5% of net-zero emissions technologies and fuels to be implemented. The EU's "Fit for 55" plan also includes maritime fuel regulations and renewable energy directives [7][8]. Market Dynamics - As of 2024, methanol-powered vessels account for approximately 32% of global alternative fuel orders, with a significant demand for methanol expected from operational and under-construction vessels [4][13]. - The global green methanol production capacity is projected to grow from 18 million tons in 2023 to 20 million tons by 2028, with a compound annual growth rate of 2.13%. Electrolytic methanol is expected to dominate production methods, reaching 1.31 million tons by 2028 [20]. Conclusion - The green methanol industry is poised for significant growth driven by regulatory support, technological advancements, and increasing demand from the shipping sector. However, production costs remain a critical barrier that needs to be addressed for widespread adoption [1][2][6].

Core Viewpoint - The provincial government report emphasizes the need to strengthen deep-sea development and utilization, presenting significant growth opportunities for the company and the industry [1] Group 1: Company Initiatives - The company, as a state-owned energy enterprise, is committed to fulfilling its social responsibilities in energy supply and contributing to the economic development of Jiangsu by providing more clean energy [1] - The company plans to enhance the functionality of the national million-ton LNG reserve base and accelerate the planning of integrated storage and transportation facilities for clean energy such as hydrogen, ammonia, alcohol, and hydrocarbons at the Yancheng Green Energy Port [1] Group 2: Industry Development - The initiatives align with the construction of a new energy system and the green low-carbon transition in Jiangsu, supporting the province's goal of becoming a new growth pole for development [1]

Core Viewpoint - The United States has officially initiated the process of withdrawing from key international agreements such as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, marking a significant policy shift that poses a serious threat to the multilateral global climate-energy governance system [1] Short-term Impact: Rising Compliance Costs and Fragmentation of Market Rules - The immediate effect of the U.S. withdrawal is a sharp increase in trade and compliance costs, as the decoupling of U.S. domestic emission policies from international standards will lead to substantial carbon tariff barriers for U.S. energy and chemical products exported to Europe [2] - U.S. chemical products, particularly those derived from oil and gas, will face significant challenges under the European Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which could erode their price competitiveness [2] - The weakening of the International Energy Forum (IEF) coordination mechanism will increase volatility risks in the global oil and gas market, impacting the profitability and predictability of production planning in the chemical industry [2] Long-term Changes: Shift in Technological Leadership and Supply Chain Resilience - The U.S. withdrawal is expected to result in a transfer of technological pathways and industry leadership, as it relinquishes its position in global clean energy technology rule-making [3] - This will lead to a reorganization of technological cooperation alliances, with countries like Europe, China, and Japan becoming central to the development of next-generation low-carbon chemical technologies [3] - The global green investment landscape, valued in trillions, will be reshaped, with capital flowing towards regions with stable policies and unified carbon market prospects, such as the EU and East Asia, potentially leading to a "bleeding" risk for U.S. chemical industries [3] Industry Response: From Passive Adaptation to Proactive Resilience Building - The global energy and chemical industry must strategically adjust to survive and compete in light of this historic change, with supply chains moving towards "nearshoring" and "friend-shoring" to mitigate carbon tariff risks [4] - Companies will accelerate the establishment of integrated, low-carbon production bases in major consumer markets, particularly in Europe and Asia, adopting a "regional production, regional sales" model [4] - There will be a shift away from U.S.-centric technological cooperation, with industry leaders seeking bilateral or regional alliances to ensure they remain aligned with global technological innovation [4] - Asset portfolios will increasingly tilt towards "climate resilience," with a notable increase in investments in circular economy, green hydrogen, and biomanufacturing, which are less affected by geopolitical and national policy changes [4] Role of Corporate Climate Diplomacy - In the absence of government leadership, large U.S. chemical companies may be compelled to adopt more proactive self-imposed emission reduction commitments and climate lobbying efforts, effectively engaging in "private sector climate diplomacy" to fill the leadership vacuum left by the government [5] - The U.S. unilateral withdrawal from international climate agreements signals a clear shift in the competitive paradigm of the global energy and chemical industry [5]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. has officially initiated the process to withdraw from key international agreements such as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, signaling a significant policy shift that poses serious challenges to the multilateral global climate-energy governance system [1] Short-term Impact: Compliance Costs and Market Fragmentation - The immediate effect of the U.S. withdrawal is expected to be a sharp increase in trade and compliance costs, particularly for the energy and chemical sectors, as U.S. domestic emission policies diverge from international standards [1] - The European Union's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will impose substantial carbon tariff barriers on U.S. energy and chemical products, particularly basic chemicals and energy-intensive materials [1] - Global chemical giants will need to establish multiple operational and compliance systems to adapt to the differing carbon accounting and pricing rules, leading to a geometric increase in complexity and costs [1] Long-term Changes: Shift in Technological Leadership and Supply Chain Resilience - The withdrawal is expected to result in a transfer of technological pathways and industry leadership, with the U.S. effectively relinquishing its advantages in global clean energy technology rule-making [3] - This will lead to a restructuring of technology cooperation alliances, with countries like Europe, China, and Japan becoming central to the development of next-generation low-carbon chemical technologies [3] - The global investment landscape will also be reshaped, with capital increasingly flowing to regions with stable policies and unified carbon market prospects, such as the EU and East Asia, potentially leading to a "bleeding" risk for U.S. chemical industries [3] Industry Response: From Passive Adaptation to Proactive Resilience Building - The global energy and chemical industry must now view strategic adjustments as essential for survival and competitiveness [4] - There will be an acceleration of supply chain "nearshoring" and "friend-shoring" to mitigate carbon tariffs and regulatory uncertainties, with multinational chemical companies establishing localized, integrated, low-carbon production bases in major consumer markets [4] - The industry will also shift towards "de-Americanized" technology cooperation, forming bilateral or regional commercial alliances to ensure alignment with global technological innovation [4] - Asset portfolios will increasingly tilt towards "climate resilience," with a notable increase in investments in circular economy, green hydrogen, and biomanufacturing, which are less affected by geopolitical and national policy changes [4] Role of Corporate Climate Diplomacy - In the absence of government leadership, large U.S. chemical companies may be compelled to adopt more proactive self-imposed emission reduction commitments and climate lobbying efforts, effectively engaging in "private sector climate diplomacy" to fill the leadership vacuum left by the government [5] - This shift indicates that the U.S. unilateral withdrawal from international climate agreements is not just a political upheaval but also a clear signal of a transformation in the competitive paradigm of the global energy and chemical industry [5]