研究院 能源化工组 期货研究报告|能源专题报告 2025-08-25 研究员 潘翔 康远宁 0755-23991175 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 碳中和趋势下的船舶替代燃料前景展望 内容摘要 ■ 强制性法规重塑航运业，能源转型成必选项 在全球航运业从环保自觉转向强制合规的时代，国际海事组织（IMO）确立了 2050 年 前后净零排放的宏伟目标。基于"从油井到尾迹"（Well-to-Wake, WtW）的全生命周期 评估框架，传统化石燃料及作为过渡选项的 LNG 均难以满足最终的净零要求，这从根 本上推动了行业向绿色替代燃料的深刻变革。 ■ 甲醇领跑商业化应用 在众多替代方案中，甲醇因其常温常压下的液体形态、成熟的发动机技术及对现有基 础设施的兼容性，正迅速成为商业化应用的领跑者。而氨因其分子不含碳的零排放特 性，被视为远洋航运最具潜力的长期解决方案。但两者均面临绿色生产成本高昂、能 量密度低于传统燃料等关键制约。 ■ 生物燃料为现存船队提供过渡，氢与电聚焦短途市场 可再生柴油（HVO）等生物燃料凭借其"直接可用"的特性，为庞大的现有船队提供了满 足近期减排法规的关键过渡方案，但其发 ...

空气和水，再平常不过。但在科学家的巧思下，它们有望成为打开清洁能源世界的一把新钥匙。近日， 日本东京大学工学院研究团队研发出一种在常温常压条件下，利用氮气（空气中含量最多的气体）和水 合成为氨的新方法。未来，这一成果如得到广泛运用，不仅有助于打破制氨传统工艺对高温高压及化石 能源的依赖，也为构建一个"氮循环社会"提供了可能。 作为一种基础化工原料，氨的身影遍布现代工业与农业，从化肥生产到药品制造、从冷却剂到金属加 工，均离不开它的参与。氨不仅与氢气一样在燃烧过程中不产生二氧化碳，还在存储和运输上具有更高 的稳定性和经济性，因此被认为有望成为推动能源转型的重要载体。不过，目前合成氨主要仍使用20世 纪初德国化学家哈伯发明的"循环法"，即通过加入催化剂使氢气和氮气在高温高压下合成氨。这一传统 工艺存在高能耗、高碳排放等问题，并且高度依赖从煤和天然气等化石资源中提取氢气。 为应对传统合成氨工艺面临的瓶颈，东京大学研究团队此前开发出一套热能驱动体系，跳过了氢气这 个"中间站"，通过选用在有机化学中常见的碘化钐作为还原剂，只需将氮气、水与碘化钐、钼催化剂混 合，即可在温和条件下完成氨的合成。相比传统高能耗方法，新工艺效 ...

本文陈述所有内容皆有可靠信息来源，赘述在文章结尾 文 |追梦人 编辑 |追梦人 ●—≺ 前言 ≻—● 然而，进入2022年之后，德国本土化工企业生存空间却显得"捉襟见肘"，就连全球化工巨头"巴斯夫"都难以为继，不得不将国内生产线转移至于中国。 那么，能让德国化工企业做出"违背祖宗"的决定，背后原因到底为何？ 德国化工巨头扛不住了！ 一直以来，化工产业在德国占据支柱性地位，对国民生产总值贡献率高达10%，更是为几十万德国人提供了相对稳定的就业岗位。 ●—≺ 德国化工巨头扛不住了 ≻—● 作为德国化工产业巨头，巴斯夫做出"背弃祖宗"的决定，实际上也是迫不得已的选择！ 若不是被"拳拳到肉"、"掌掌到心"的现实捶打地生疼，谁又会心甘情愿地在异国他乡发展壮大本土产业呢？ 巴斯夫承受的这一肚子委屈，归根到底最大的导火索就是"俄乌冲突"，德国作为欧盟成员国之一，就意味着他必然会成为乌克兰的支持方，这也同时意味着 和俄罗斯占到了对立面。 美国一声令下对俄经济制裁，就问有那个欧盟小弟敢站出来反抗？参与其中的德国从头到尾没少因俄乌冲突遭遇经济重创，只不过随之衍生的问题老美大哥 可是一概不负责。 德国对俄"经济制裁"后，随之就面临 ...

（原标题：智利政府提交绿氢激励措施提案，拟提供最高28亿美元税收减免） 智利《三点钟报》8月19日报道，智利财政部向众议院提交绿氢产业促进法草案，设立 临时性税收优惠，即首次向本地生产商采购绿氢及其衍生品（如氨或甲醇）的公司可 享受第一类所得税抵免，总额度最高达28亿美元。该激励措施将由财政部、能源部和 经济部组成的部际委员会通过年度竞标方式分配给新建绿色氢能生产项目。预计2025 至2030年期间将进行6次招标以分配税收抵免额，采用前期分配较高额度，随后逐年递 减的限额机制。此外，还将在麦哲伦大区为绿氢生产商设立统一特殊税收框架。 ...

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [5] Core Insights - The report indicates a strong production momentum in the phosphate segment, with DAP production expected to be between 5.9 to 6.2 million tons in 2025. Market conditions for DAP improved in Q2 2025 due to stable demand and supply constraints from China [7] - The aluminum segment maintains its production guidance for 2025, with primary aluminum production expected between 850,000 to 1,150,000 tons. However, aluminum prices are under pressure due to geopolitical tensions and changing trade flows [7] - The gold segment is projected to meet its production guidance for 2025, with production expected between 475,000 to 560,000 ounces. The gold price remains high, supported by geopolitical uncertainties and demand from global central banks [7] Financial Performance - Q2 2025 revenue reached 94.16 billion Saudi Riyals, an 11% increase quarter-on-quarter, driven by overall sales volume growth across all business segments [3] - Q2 2025 EBITDA was 37.85 billion Saudi Riyals, reflecting a 9% quarter-on-quarter growth [3] - Q2 2025 net profit was 19.22 billion Saudi Riyals, marking a 24% increase quarter-on-quarter [3] - Q2 2025 earnings per share (EPS) stood at 0.51 Saudi Riyals, also a 24% increase quarter-on-quarter [3] Production and Sales Overview - Phosphate segment: Q2 2025 DAP production was 1.705 million tons, an 8% increase quarter-on-quarter, with sales volume at 1.761 million tons, a 15% increase [11] - Aluminum segment: Q2 2025 alumina production was 461,000 tons, a 4% decrease quarter-on-quarter, with aluminum production at 247,000 tons, a 1% decrease. Average realized price for alumina was $381 per ton, down 32% [12] - Gold segment: Q2 2025 gold production was 108,000 ounces, a 12% decrease quarter-on-quarter, while sales volume increased by 6% to 118,000 ounces. Average realized price for gold was $3,316 per ounce, a 16% increase [13] 2025 Outlook - The company maintains a capital expenditure guidance range of $7.55 billion to $9.55 billion for 2025, with approximately 70% allocated for growth capital expenditures [9] - The company is advancing its long-term growth objectives, aiming for an 8 to 10 times increase in EBITDA by 2040 [9] - Recent strategic acquisitions and partnerships are expected to strengthen the company's market position and capitalize on regional demand growth opportunities [9]

Group 1 - The U.S. government has implemented new tariffs on imported goods from multiple trade partners, effective August 7, impacting the fertilizer market significantly [1] - Morocco, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt, major suppliers of phosphate fertilizers to the U.S., will face a 10% tariff, while Jordan and Israel will incur a 15% tariff [1] - Saudi Arabia exported 519,000 tons of ammonium phosphate to the U.S. from January to May 2025, accounting for 54.7% of total U.S. ammonium phosphate imports [1] Group 2 - Trinidad and Tobago, the second-largest ammonia supplier to the U.S. after Canada, will face a 15% tariff, but the market impact is expected to be limited [2] - Algeria's granular urea will be subject to a 30% tariff, while Nigeria will face a 15% tariff, both being significant suppliers to the U.S. fertilizer market [1] - The price assessment for diammonium phosphate in New Orleans is between $785 and $800 per short ton, while urea is priced at $455 to $465 per short ton [2]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported adjusted EBITDA of $1,400,000,000 for the first half of 2025, reflecting strong operational performance amid a tight global nitrogen supply-demand balance [5][18] - Net earnings attributable to common stockholders were $698,000,000 or $4.2 per diluted share for the first half of 2025, compared to $386,000,000 or $2.37 per diluted share for the same period in 2024 [18][19] - Net cash from operations was $2,500,000,000, and free cash flow was $1,700,000,000 for the trailing twelve months [19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company produced 5,200,000 tons of gross ammonia in the first half of 2025, achieving a 99% utilization rate, with an expected total production of approximately 10,000,000 tons for the full year [8][18] - The Donaldsonville carbon capture and sequestration project began operations in July, expected to reduce CO2 emissions by up to 2,000,000 metric tons per year and generate significant returns through tax credits and premium sales of low carbon ammonia [9][20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The global nitrogen supply-demand balance continued to tighten, driven by strong demand in North America and India, alongside low global nitrogen inventories and production disruptions in key supply regions [11][14] - Brazil and India are projected to import over 8,000,000 metric tons of urea by the end of the year, indicating robust global demand [14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on executing strategic initiatives, including the Blue Point joint venture and the Donaldsonville CCS project, to enhance its low carbon ammonia production capabilities [5][10] - The company aims to maintain a balanced capital allocation strategy, investing in growth while returning substantial capital to shareholders, with $2,400,000,000 authorized for share repurchases [19][25] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to create shareholder value due to favorable global nitrogen industry dynamics and strong operational performance [7][25] - The company anticipates that the global nitrogen supply-demand balance will remain tight in the near and medium term, with ongoing demand for low carbon ammonia expected to further tighten the market [16][25] Other Important Information - The company has returned approximately $2,000,000,000 to shareholders over the last twelve months, including repurchasing more than 10% of its outstanding shares [6][19] - The company is preparing to ship its first cargo of low carbon ammonia from the Donaldsonville project, which is expected to command a premium in the market [16][20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Outlook for returns from the Blue Point joint venture - Management discussed the importance of depreciation and tax credits in calculating returns, indicating that they do not expect significant changes to overall project returns [27][28] Question: Future crop and fertilizer price dynamics - Management acknowledged the disconnect between crop prices and input costs, emphasizing that nitrogen remains a non-discretionary nutrient for farmers [31][35] Question: Inventory and loading issues at the Donaldsonville facility - Management clarified that the report of loading issues was incorrect, attributing low inventory levels to high demand rather than operational problems [38][40] Question: Cost pressures in the first half of the year - Management explained that increased SG&A costs were due to legal fees related to the Blue Point joint venture and adjustments in variable compensation for employees [44][46] Question: Cash flow and uses of cash moving forward - Management indicated that they would likely prioritize share repurchases as cash generation exceeds expectations, while also managing capital expenditures for the Blue Point project [66][67] Question: Impact of geopolitical events on nitrogen prices - Management expressed that ongoing geopolitical tensions would likely maintain high nitrogen prices and limit supply from certain regions [96][99] Question: Expectations for Chinese nitrogen exports - Management noted that while there are exportable tons available from China, the actual volume may be limited due to domestic demand and pricing dynamics [76][78]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a consolidated net loss of $90 million for the second quarter of 2025, with a loss per share of $1.14 and an EBITDA loss of $24 million [5][11] - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $99 million, with an adjusted loss per share of $0.23 [11] - The negative mark to market impact on the RFS obligation was $89 million, and the unfavorable inventory valuation impact was $32 million [11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the Petroleum segment, total throughput was approximately 172,000 barrels per day, with a light product yield of 99% on crude oil processed [5] - Adjusted EBITDA for the Petroleum segment was $38 million, driven by increased Group 3 crack spreads, offset by higher RIN prices and lower throughput volumes [11] - The Fertilizer segment achieved an adjusted EBITDA of $67 million, supported by higher UAN and ammonia sales pricing and volumes [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Group 3 2-1-1 benchmark cracks averaged $24.02 per barrel for the second quarter, compared to $18.83 per barrel in the same period last year [6] - Average RIN prices for 2025 were approximately $1.11, an increase of over 70% from the prior year [6] - Nitrogen fertilizer prices for 2025 were higher for both UAN and ammonia compared to 2024 [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to focus on improving capture rates, reducing costs, and growing the business profitably [25] - The alkylation project at Wynnewood is expected to enhance the ability to produce premium gasoline, with completion anticipated in 2027 [19] - The company is cautiously optimistic about the refining sector's near and medium-term outlook, given low refined product inventories and steady demand [20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism regarding the refining market, citing low inventories and steady demand for refined products [17][20] - The company is awaiting final regulations from the IRS regarding PTC benefits, which could positively impact the Renewables segment [9][21] - Management indicated that the energy transition is evolving, with a belief that gas and diesel will remain essential fuels for the foreseeable future [48] Other Important Information - The company ended the quarter with a consolidated cash balance of $596 million and total liquidity of approximately $759 million [15] - Significant cash uses included $189 million for capital and turnaround spending and a $70 million prepayment on the term loan [13] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of excess inventory on financials - Management acknowledged that excess inventory during turnaround seasons negatively impacted financial performance, estimating a 7% to 9% decline in capture rates due to timing of product sales [31][35] Question: 2026 CapEx and turnaround outlook - Management indicated that there are no major turnarounds planned for 2026, and guidance on capital spending will be provided later in the year [36] Question: Strategic focus for new leadership - Management emphasized the need for diversification and the potential for future acquisitions to mitigate reliance on a single market [40] Question: Dividend reinstatement considerations - Management expressed a desire to return to dividend payments as soon as possible, with ongoing discussions at the board level [48][51] Question: Small refinery exemptions outlook - Management discussed the ongoing challenges with small refinery exemptions and the potential for legal action if necessary, emphasizing the importance of these exemptions for rural refineries [54][56]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The average realized price for the second quarter was $374 per tonne, with produced sales of approximately 1,500,000 tonnes, generating adjusted EBITDA of $183 million and adjusted net income of $0.97 per share [7][16] - Adjusted EBITDA decreased compared to 2025 primarily due to a lower average realized price [7] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Methanex production in the second quarter was similar to the first quarter, with higher production from Geismar and Trinidad, offset by lower production from Chile, New Zealand, and Egypt due to gas constraints and planned maintenance [12][14] - The integration of the newly acquired OCI methanol business is proceeding as planned, with both the Beaumont facility and the Natgasoline facility operating safely and at full rates since acquisition [8][13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global methanol demand was estimated to be about 4% higher in the second quarter compared to the first quarter, driven primarily by higher demand in China [9] - The global average realized price for methanol was $374 per tonne, with regional prices in Europe, North America, Asia Pacific, and China varying significantly [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to safely and reliably operate its business while smoothly integrating new assets, with a focus on deleveraging through the repayment of the Term Loan A facility [16] - The company does not anticipate significant growth capital over the next few years and remains focused on maintaining a strong balance sheet and financial flexibility [16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the integration of the OCI acquisition and the potential for synergies, estimating $30 million in synergies to be achieved within 18 months [60] - The company is monitoring the gas market closely and expects some curtailments in 2025, particularly in the summer months, depending on gas supply and demand dynamics [14][15] Other Important Information - The company ended the second quarter with $485 million in cash and access to an undrawn revolving credit facility of CAD 600 million [16] - The company is focused on optimizing operations in New Zealand, where gas supply availability continues to be a challenge [14][90] Q&A Session Summary Question: Operating rates at G3 and Beaumont - G3 has been operating above 90% since its restart, while Beaumont and Nat Gas facilities have been running at full rates since acquisition [20] Question: OCI deal and EBITDA guidance - The $50 million reduction in EBITDA guidance is primarily due to lower production in New Zealand [24] Question: Ammonia market outlook - The ammonia business currently represents about 3% to 5% of global sales, with pricing expected to rise due to tightening supply [32] Question: Gas hedging strategy - The company targets to be 50% to 70% hedged in the first three years post-acquisition, with current hedging levels around 50% [35] Question: Quarterly depreciation increase from OCI acquisition - The acquisition is expected to increase quarterly depreciation by approximately $25 million [39] Question: Trapped value within the portfolio - The value of non-operating plants is largely dependent on gas stock and feedstock availability, with no current plans to relocate assets [46][48] Question: Impact of secondary sanctions on Iran - Secondary sanctions may limit customer options but have not significantly impacted production or sales capabilities [53][54] Question: Integration priorities for OCI - The focus is on ensuring safe operations, integrating systems, and realizing synergies, with a commitment to customer delivery [59] Question: Global operating rates and market dynamics - The industry is operating well, with healthy production rates and inventories below historical norms, indicating a balanced market [79][81] Question: Marine fuel demand potential - Estimated marine fuel demand could reach around 2 million tonnes by 2025, with a focus on low carbon methanol due to regulatory pressures [82][84]

Core Viewpoint - A research team from the University of Tokyo has successfully synthesized ammonia using nitrogen, water, reducing agents, and light at room temperature and pressure, marking a significant advancement in clean energy technology [1][3][5]. Group 1: Research Significance - This is claimed to be the "world's first" case of synthesizing ammonia using nitrogen, water, and light, published in the journal Nature Communications [3]. - Ammonia's global annual production is approximately 200 million tons, comparable to the primary raw material for plastics, ethylene, with about 80% of ammonia produced used for fertilizers [3]. Group 2: Traditional Ammonia Production Challenges - Current ammonia production methods rely on a process invented in the early 20th century, which requires high temperatures (400-600°C) and pressures, leading to significant greenhouse gas emissions from hydrogen production using fossil fuels [5][9]. - The traditional method's reliance on methane for hydrogen production results in carbon dioxide emissions, while water electrolysis, though cleaner, is costly and not widely adopted [5]. Group 3: New Methodology and Future Prospects - The new method utilizes abundant resources—nitrogen, water, and light—potentially offering a clean way to synthesize ammonia, which could contribute to decarbonization efforts [5][7]. - The research focuses on mimicking enzymes found in symbiotic bacteria of leguminous plants, which convert nitrogen into ammonia without carbon emissions [5][7]. Group 4: Practical Applications and Market Potential - If ammonia can be synthesized solely from nitrogen, water, and light, it could lead to the development of next-generation vehicles powered by ammonia, or systems similar to photovoltaic panels installed on rooftops [8]. - Ammonia is gaining attention not only for its traditional fertilizer use but also as a fuel for power generation and as a means to transport hydrogen, which is difficult to store and transport [8][9]. Group 5: Competitive Landscape - The ammonia synthesis field is highly competitive, with other researchers, such as those from Caltech and Tokyo University of Science, also exploring enzyme mimicry and low-temperature, low-pressure methods for ammonia production [9]. - Achieving practical applications of direct ammonia synthesis requires overcoming challenges related to efficiency and scalability [9].