In this articleWHDISFUNEXPEHTSLAIHG-GBHLTMARBKNGCQQQCMCSAGOOGL1698-HK9988-HK1179-HKBILI9626-HK700-HKThis report is from this week's CNBC's The China Connection newsletter, which brings you insights and analysis on what's driving the world's second-largest economy. You can subscribe here.The big storyThere's nothing quite like the holiday rush in China for the Lunar New Year. The Beijing city streets start emptying out several days in advance as the majority of residents return to their hometowns or travel e ...

Index Performance - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 26,564, down 1.0% for the day and up 3.6% year-to-date (YTD) [2] - The HSCEI closed at 9,134, down 0.9% for the day and up 2.5% YTD [2] - The MSCI China index closed at 86, down 1.0% for the day and up 3.6% YTD [2] Commodity Price Performance - Brent Crude remained stable at US$64 per barrel, with a YTD increase of 5.4% [3] - Gold prices rose to US$4,671 per ounce, reflecting an 8.1% increase YTD [3] - Copper prices fell to US$12,803 per ton, down 2.3% for the day but up 3.1% YTD [3] Economic Indicators - China's GDP growth moderated to 4.5% YoY in Q4 2025, slightly above expectations, with a full-year growth of 5% for 2025 [6] - Industrial profits in China decreased by 13.1% YoY as of January 27, 2026 [4] - The 1-Year Loan Prime Rate in China remained stable at 3.0% as of January 20, 2026 [4] Sector Insights - The OTA sector is under pressure due to an antitrust probe involving Trip.com, which saw a stock price drop of over 20% [10] - Despite the probe, long-term earnings impact on Trip.com is expected to be limited, with investor confidence potentially returning by August 2026 [10] - The property market in China is showing marginal improvement, but underlying pressures persist, with expectations for stabilization by late 2026 or early 2027 [13]

Summary of the Conference Call on China's Hotel Sector Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **China Hotel Sector** and insights from hotel experts with extensive experience in the industry [2][3]. Key Takeaways 1. **Supply-Demand Balance**: - China's hotel supply growth has been outpacing demand since 2024. However, it is expected that the supply-demand balance will be achieved during the second half of 2027 to 2028 [2][3]. 2. **Segment Performance**: - The midscale and upper-midscale segments are projected to outperform in the next five years due to rising franchisee enthusiasm and lower investment requirements compared to international brands [2][4]. 3. **Inbound Tourism vs. Business Demand**: - Inbound tourist growth has not significantly offset the declining demand for business meetings, which saw a **60% year-over-year decrease in 2024** [2][4]. 4. **Impact of OTAs**: - Hotel chains are focusing more on membership development and have lower take rates compared to Online Travel Agencies (OTAs). This may lead to a gradual slowdown in OTA growth [2][3]. 5. **Conversion of Office Buildings**: - The conversion of office buildings into mid-end hotels is driving rapid supply growth. The share of office building conversions has increased to **15% year-to-date from 3-5% in 2024** [3][4]. 6. **Investment Preferences**: - Limited and selective-service hotels with **100-150 rooms** and a capital expenditure (CAPEX) of within **Rmb200,000** are becoming more popular among franchisees due to lower investment and higher returns compared to international brands [4]. 7. **Challenges for High-End Brands**: - Chinese hotel groups face challenges in developing high-end brands, including insufficient brand awareness, lack of managerial teams, and no cost advantages compared to international brands [5]. 8. **Market Positioning**: - Among Chinese hotel groups, H World is viewed as the leader in room rates and brand awareness, followed by Atour, Jinjiang, and BTG. The potential entry of OTAs into hotel operations could intensify competition in the low-to-medium-end segments [5]. Risks and Opportunities - **Downside Risks**: - Continued economic sluggishness, slower-than-expected growth in peak season tourist traffic, adverse weather conditions, and potential disasters such as earthquakes or epidemics [8][9][10][11]. - **Upside Risks**: - A better-than-expected macroeconomic environment and growth in domestic tourism could positively impact the hotel sector [8][9][10][11]. Company Ratings - **Top Picks**: Atour and Trip.com (TCOM) are highlighted as top investment choices with a **Buy** rating. - **Neutral Ratings**: H World and Shangri-La are rated as **Neutral** [2][24]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights and projections regarding the Chinese hotel sector, highlighting both the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.

Core Insights - Venu Holding Corporation reported a quarterly loss of $0.15 per share, better than the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.21, but worse than a loss of $0.13 per share a year ago, indicating an earnings surprise of +28.57% [1] - The company generated revenues of $5.39 million for the quarter ended September 2025, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 42.1% and down from $5.45 million year-over-year [2] - The stock has increased by approximately 24.4% since the beginning of the year, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 14.6% [3] Earnings Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is -$0.24 on revenues of $6.7 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is -$1.23 on revenues of $24 million [7] - The estimate revisions trend for Venu Holding Corporation was mixed ahead of the earnings release, resulting in a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting the stock is expected to perform in line with the market [6] Industry Context - The Hotels and Motels industry, to which Venu Holding Corporation belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 26% of over 250 Zacks industries, indicating potential challenges for stock performance [8] - Another company in the same industry, H World Group, is expected to report quarterly earnings of $0.64 per share, reflecting a year-over-year change of +4.9%, with revenues projected at $944.94 million, up 2.9% from the previous year [9][10]

Core Insights - Soho House & Co reported a quarterly loss of $0.1 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.02, compared to break-even earnings per share a year ago [1] - The company posted revenues of $370.75 million for the quarter ended September 2025, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.50% and showing an increase from $333.37 million year-over-year [3] - The stock has gained approximately 19.3% since the beginning of the year, outperforming the S&P 500's gain of 14.3% [4] Earnings Performance - The quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of -600.00%, with the company previously expected to post a loss of $0.08 per share but instead reporting a loss of $0.1 [2] - Over the last four quarters, Soho House has surpassed consensus EPS estimates two times [2] Future Outlook - The current consensus EPS estimate for the upcoming quarter is -$0.02 on revenues of $352.8 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $0.17 on revenues of $1.32 billion [8] - The estimate revisions trend for Soho House was mixed ahead of the earnings release, resulting in a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) for the stock, indicating expected performance in line with the market [7] Industry Context - The Hotels and Motels industry, to which Soho House belongs, is currently ranked in the bottom 14% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting potential challenges ahead [9] - Empirical research indicates a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions, which could impact investor sentiment [6]

Summary of Key Points from the Travel & Leisure Industry Expert Call Industry Overview - The travel industry in China is experiencing healthy demand, particularly during the recent Golden Week holidays, with notable activity in both first-tier and lower-tier cities [1][3] - The hotel industry is seeing positive trends in Average Daily Rate (ADR) and Revenue Per Available Room (RevPar), with increases in the mid to high-single digits during the holidays [1][3] Core Insights - **Travel Demand**: Overall travel demand remains robust, with significant participation from families in lower-tier cities during the Mid-Autumn Festival [3] - **Hotel Performance**: Average occupancy rates for Jinjiang's hotels in tier-3 and below cities reached 91.7%, indicating strong performance in these areas [3] - **Supply Growth**: There is ongoing pressure on hotel RevPar due to continued supply growth, particularly from franchisees in the mid-to-upscale segments [1][9] - **OTA Competition**: The competition among Online Travel Agencies (OTAs) is described as benign, with smaller operators struggling to compete against larger players like TCOM, which holds a ~55% market share in hotel bookings [9] Recommendations - **Preferred Stocks**: The report recommends investments in hotel stocks such as H World and Atour, anticipating better RevPar trends due to reduced competition and slower supply growth [2] - **Macau Market**: Stocks like Sands China and Galaxy are favored due to expected benefits from wealth effects and low base comparisons for Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) until the end of Q1 2026 [2] - **Air Travel**: Buy ratings are also given to TCOM and Air China, which are expected to benefit from an increase in long-haul outbound travel and rising airfares [2] Additional Insights - **Market Dynamics**: The expert noted a shift in outbound travel preferences from "tick-box travel" to more personalized small-group experiences, typically involving 9-12 people [8] - **Future Outlook**: The expert does not foresee the typical seasonal decline in travel demand post-Labor Day, attributing this to a modest recovery in business travel since September [8] - **OTA Market Share**: Fliggy has seen significant growth in market share, particularly in outbound travel, with a 48% increase in GMV and a 78% increase in domestic hotel room nights year-over-year during the Golden Week [9] Conclusion - The travel and leisure industry in China is poised for continued growth, supported by healthy demand and evolving consumer preferences. Investment opportunities exist in hotel stocks and OTAs, particularly those that can adapt to changing market dynamics and consumer behaviors [1][2][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a consistent sector preference, favoring sports brands, diversified retailers, dairy, beverages, and restaurants, while being less favorable towards apparel/footwear OEM, furniture, projectors, discretionary small kitchen appliances, jewelry, and non-super-premium spirits [11]. Core Insights - Consumption in China has shown signs of recovery, with retail sales growth improving to +4.6% year-over-year in 1Q25, and companies in the coverage reporting an average growth of 14% compared to 12% in 4Q24 [1]. - Despite the positive growth, companies remain cautious about the outlook due to ongoing volatility and external factors such as US-China tariff developments impacting consumer confidence [2][1]. - Margin performance in 1Q25 was mixed, with some companies benefiting from favorable raw material prices and cost control, while others faced risks from marketing investments and competition [1]. - Companies are generally maintaining disciplined pricing strategies and healthier inventory levels, although some categories like spirits and sportswear are experiencing challenges due to demand pressures [1]. - The impact of tariffs on earnings and consumer sentiment is significant, with companies cautious about the second half of 2025 amid uncertainties [2]. Summary by Sections Key Findings from 1Q25 Results - Retail sales growth improved to +4.6% year-over-year, with coverage companies reporting an average growth of 14% [1]. - Labor Day consumption growth accelerated, indicating a potential rebound in consumer spending [1]. Expectations for 2Q25 - Companies are cautious about the outlook for 2H25 due to tariff uncertainties, although those with market share gain opportunities may be more resilient [2]. Sector/Stock Preferences - Preferred sectors include sports brands, diversified retailers, dairy, beverages, and restaurants, while least preferred sectors include apparel/footwear OEM and furniture [11]. Macro Data Points - The report notes that macroeconomic data points are solid, but ongoing tariff developments and policy support need to be monitored [11]. Valuation Methodology - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the valuation methodology and the potential risks associated with it [11].

Group 1 - The core thesis for H World Group (NASDAQ: HTHT) is that the demand/supply situation remains favorable, suggesting potential upward movement in stock price [1] - The investment approach emphasizes a blend of value investing principles and long-term growth focus, aiming to buy quality companies at a discount to their intrinsic value [1] - The strategy involves holding investments for the long term to allow for compounding of earnings and shareholder returns [1]

分组1 - H World Group reported quarterly earnings of $0.14 per share, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.27 per share, and down from $0.33 per share a year ago, representing an earnings surprise of -48.15% [1] - The company posted revenues of $825 million for the quarter ended December 2024, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 3.06%, compared to year-ago revenues of $786 million [2] - H World Group shares have increased approximately 15.2% since the beginning of the year, while the S&P 500 has declined by -3.5% [3] 分组2 - The current consensus EPS estimate for the coming quarter is $0.42 on revenues of $776.22 million, and for the current fiscal year, it is $2.05 on revenues of $3.46 billion [7] - The Zacks Industry Rank indicates that the Hotels and Motels sector is currently in the bottom 26% of over 250 Zacks industries, suggesting potential challenges for stock performance [8]