出行链旺季不旺但已在底部，渠道调改等待业绩拐点。 ①酒店：需求端 25Q2 降幅环比收窄，低基数和运营策略调整共同驱动。开店节奏稳健，高于行业水 平，重启份额提升。架构战略调整，为新周期储备。 ② OTA 格局好，利润稳健。继续提升补贴效率， take rate 稳健，海外坚定投入。 ③ 景区及免税延续 个股分化趋势，离岛降幅收窄，市内店加速落地。 ④ 超市和百货处于深度调改阶段，其中超市行业收入下滑 14.47% ，归母净利继续承压。百货 2025Q2 收入业绩均继续承压，未见拐点。 ⑤ 跨境电商关税影响逐渐深化，低基数效应 + 抢运行为推动 2025H1 营收净利增速提升。品牌跨境依然表现亮眼。预计 后续关税扰动影响将逐步体现。 风险提示： 宏观经济波动对旅游消费需求影响，中小企业压缩差旅成本导致商旅波动，出海面临贸易摩擦及政策影响。 报告导读： 板块收入增速普遍环比 25Q1 改善，但利润未能提升，竞争对利润率构成影 响。品牌零售、 AI 及服务消费享受多重红利，高速增长。 景气度环比改善，但增收不增利。 ①社服 25Q2 营收 +2.84% ，环比 +2.77pct ，环比回暖。低基数 + 需求未恶化 ...

智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，社服板块收入增速普遍环比25Q1改善，但利润未能提升， 竞争对利润率构成影响。品牌零售、AI及服务消费享受多重红利，高速增长。出行链旺季不旺但已在 底部，渠道调改等待业绩拐点，预计后续电商业关税扰动影响将逐步体现。该行推荐AI应用、新零售 与调改以及情绪与体验消费相关标的。 出行链旺季不旺但已在底部，渠道调改等待业绩拐点 ①酒店：需求端25Q2降幅环比收窄，低基数和运营策略调整共同驱动。开店节奏稳健，高于行业水 平，重启份额提升。架构战略调整，为新周期储备。②OTA格局好，利润稳健。继续提升补贴效率， take rate稳健，海外坚定投入。③景区及免税延续个股分化趋势，离岛降幅收窄，市内店加速落地。④ 超市和百货处于深度调改阶段，其中超市行业收入下滑14.47%，归母净利继续承压。百货2025Q2收入 业绩均继续承压，未见拐点。⑤跨境电商关税影响逐渐深化，低基数效应+抢运行为推动2025H1营收净 利增速提升。品牌跨境依然表现亮眼：吉宏股份、绿联科技、安克创新收入高增。预计后续关税扰动影 响将逐步体现。 风险提示：宏观经济波动对旅游消费需求影响，中小企业压缩差旅成本导致 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The current market is experiencing strong inflows of new funds, particularly from foreign investments and margin financing, indicating a solid foundation for the ongoing bull market [1][6] - Since June, foreign capital has consistently flowed into the market, with passive funds contributing approximately 19 billion USD, equivalent to over 100 billion CNY into A-shares, and a similar amount into Hong Kong stocks [1][6] Key Market Trends - The market's trading volume has increased from 1.5 trillion to 2.3 trillion, with expectations to reach 2.5 trillion [2] - The bull market is still in its second phase of growth, with historical data suggesting that the market is not close to its peak [8] - Current financing balance as a percentage of market capitalization is around 0.85, below the peak of 0.9, indicating that there is still room for growth [8] Investment Strategy - The recommended investment strategy focuses on leading sectors such as brokerage firms, non-ferrous metals, and coal [4] - Attention should also be given to low-level state-owned enterprise restructuring areas, including electricity, power, and travel chains [4] - Growth sectors to watch include the Hang Seng Technology sector and domestic computing power layouts, such as Cambrian [4] Monitoring Market Dynamics - Short-term market peaks are typically accompanied by reduced trading volume; however, if the market continues to rise with increasing volume, it may not reach a peak soon [3][9] - Monitoring changes in trading volume is crucial for identifying potential entry points during market corrections [11] Risk Factors - Two primary risk factors to monitor include changes in overseas liquidity and international relations, particularly the stance of the Federal Reserve during the Jackson Hole meeting [12] - A hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve could trigger market corrections, while international relations, such as the Russia-Ukraine situation, should also be assessed for their potential impact on the market [12] Conclusion - The market remains robust with significant inflows and high trading volumes, suggesting continued upward momentum. However, vigilance is required regarding external factors that could influence market stability and growth potential [10][12]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a potential second wave of market growth, focusing on technology and cyclical leaders as key investment opportunities [3][6][11] Liquidity and Market Conditions - The report notes a decline in U.S. non-farm employment figures, raising concerns about the U.S. economy and increasing expectations for interest rate cuts, with a 10Y/2Y U.S. Treasury yield drop of 10BP/18BP since August [4][12] - Continuous monetary easing is highlighted, with weekly reverse repos exceeding 1 trillion yuan for four consecutive weeks, and a strong inflow into the bond market expected due to anticipated tax incentives [4][12] - Market trading volume remains stable at 1.6 to 1.8 trillion yuan, with financing balances nearing 2 trillion yuan, indicating robust new inflows [4][12] Investment Themes - The report identifies three main investment themes: 1. **Leading Companies**: Focus on sectors like non-ferrous metals, military industry, and state-owned enterprise restructuring, with PPI hitting a bottom [4][12] 2. **Domestic Innovation**: Anticipation of a recovery in domestic technology and semiconductor sectors, with high utilization rates in domestic foundries and clear expansion trends [5][13] 3. **Global Expansion**: The report discusses the ongoing global expansion of new investments in cultural sectors, gaming, and innovative pharmaceuticals [5][14] Market Phases and Performance - Historical analysis indicates that each market cycle sees a flow of new capital from institutional investors to retail investors, with the current phase identified as a second wave of growth [6][14][15] - The report outlines the performance of various sectors across different market phases, noting that technology and cyclical sectors are expected to lead in the current second wave of growth [16][30] PPI Trends - The report discusses the PPI cycle, indicating that PPI has reached a bottom and is expected to recover, which aligns with the performance of cyclical sectors [32][33]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.28%, gaining 68 points to close at 24,658 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 0.61% [1] - The Hong Kong stock market saw a trading volume of HKD 157.9 billion in the morning session [1] - The National Healthcare Security Administration of China added innovative commercial insurance drugs to the list for 2025, supporting new drugs with high clinical value but payment bottlenecks, leading to a rise in the Hang Seng Biotechnology Index [1] Group 2 - Livzon Pharmaceutical (01513) surged by 12.69% as the Phase II clinical trial for its cardiovascular innovative drug H001 capsule completed patient enrollment [2] - InnoCare Pharma (02577) increased by 6.41%, planning to significantly enhance its 8-inch gallium nitride wafer production capacity over the next five years [2] - China Heartland Fertilizer (01866) rose by 3.83% following reports of a meeting held by relevant authorities to ensure the supply and stabilize prices of potash fertilizer [2] Group 3 - Chongqing Machinery and Electric (02722) saw a significant increase of over 17% due to catalysts in the domestic AIDC market, with Chongqing Cummins being a supplier for engines [2] Group 4 - Jifang Zhitu Holdings (09636) rose by 10.18% after announcing a proposed share placement to raise approximately HKD 746 million for developing on-chain financial resources [3] Group 5 - Smoore International (06969) fell by 3.55%, expecting a year-on-year decline of approximately 21% to 35% in half-year profits [4] - Kanglong Chemical (03759) issued a profit warning, dropping by 5.24%, with an expected year-on-year decline of 36% to 39% in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "strong buy" rating for key companies in the e-commerce and retail sectors, including Alibaba, JD Group, Pinduoduo, and Vipshop [19][21]. Core Insights - The restaurant and tourism sector index increased by 0.71%, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index (up 1.54%) and the ChiNext Index (up 1.50%) [5][7]. - Taobao Flash Sale launched a subsidy program of 50 billion yuan, resulting in a 140% increase in business for small and medium-sized restaurant merchants [27]. - Meituan's daily order volume for instant retail surpassed 120 million, with restaurant orders exceeding 100 million [28]. - The upcoming summer travel season is expected to boost the tourism sector, with strong demand for short-distance self-driving and family trips [5][19]. Industry Overview Restaurant and Tourism Sector - The top five stocks in the restaurant and tourism sector this week were ST Zhangjiajie (+2.58%), Qujiang Cultural Tourism (+2.17%), and Quanjude (+1.80%) [10]. - The overall performance of the restaurant and tourism sector has shown a decline of 1.09% since the beginning of 2025 [7]. E-commerce Sector - The competitive landscape in the e-commerce sector is perceived to be overly pessimistic, with expectations for profit stability and valuation recovery [19]. - The report highlights the strong performance of Alibaba, Pinduoduo, JD Group, and Vipshop, recommending them for investment [19][21]. Retail Sector - The report emphasizes the positive adjustments in Yonghui's strategy, focusing on quality retail trends and consumer trust [21]. - The retail sector is expected to see sustainable same-store growth due to improved service and product selection [21]. Key Company Recommendations - Meituan is expected to maintain its long-term competitiveness despite short-term competitive pressures in the food delivery market [21]. - Didi Chuxing is recommended due to its stable market share and significant profit growth potential [21]. - Ctrip Group's performance is projected to continue improving, particularly in international markets [22]. Major News - Luckin Coffee has re-entered the U.S. market with two new stores in Manhattan, targeting students and tourists [26]. - Taobao Flash Sale's subsidy program has significantly boosted sales across various food categories [27]. - Meituan has implemented a pilot program for rider pension insurance subsidies in several cities [29].

Core Viewpoint - The internet industry has entered a new investment cycle since 2025, with AI, overseas expansion, and instant retail becoming hot topics. Innovation and risk-taking are inherent to the internet's DNA, and while there is optimism about the incremental benefits of investments, a balance between short-term and long-term strategies is necessary [1]. Group 1: Internet Industry Trends - The "classical internet" approach is becoming outdated as the focus shifts from user numbers and transaction volumes to core profits, especially as the market matures and capital becomes more cautious [3]. - The industry is actively investing in AI, global expansion, and instant retail, but there is a need to account for uncertainties in future investments, particularly regarding financial health during periods of heavy investment [4]. Group 2: Gaming Industry Insights - The Chinese gaming market saw a 18% year-on-year growth in Q1 2025, with mobile gaming growing by 20% to 63.6 billion yuan [6]. - The "search, fight, retreat" gameplay has revitalized the shooting game sector, attracting competitive and growth-oriented players, leading to significant market increments [8]. - The PC gaming market also grew by 6.85% year-on-year in Q1 2025, indicating a collaborative growth between PC and mobile gaming [8]. Group 3: Advertising Industry Developments - The overall online advertising market grew by 15% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with a notable differentiation in growth rates among platforms [10]. - AI is enhancing advertising efficiency, with companies like Meta and Tencent leveraging AI to improve ad conversion rates and user engagement [15]. Group 4: E-commerce Sector Analysis - The e-commerce market is projected to grow by 12% year-on-year in 2025, driven by government subsidies and a shift from price wars to differentiated competition [26][28]. - Instant retail is seen as a new growth channel, although it is unlikely to disrupt the existing e-commerce market structure due to high fulfillment costs [29]. - The collaboration between platforms like Xiaohongshu and major e-commerce players aims to enhance transaction efficiency and brand visibility [33]. Group 5: Cloud Computing and AI Integration - The cloud computing sector is benefiting from increased AI demand, with a 19% year-on-year revenue growth in Q1 2025 [42]. - Major cloud providers are focusing on building ecosystems around AI applications, which is expected to drive future growth [45]. - The demand for AI-driven solutions is anticipated to increase, particularly in sectors like automotive, finance, and public services [46].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the Hong Kong stock market, particularly in sectors such as AI, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals, indicating a rising risk appetite among investors [2][9]. Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market has shown significant improvement in risk appetite, with notable performance in sectors like AI, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals, leading to increased investor interest, especially in small and mid-cap stocks [2][9]. - The report suggests active participation in A+H shares due to observed discount phenomena in IPOs, with a focus on new consumption and manufacturing sectors [2][9]. - There is a sustained bullish outlook on virtual assets and the Web 3.0 market, driven by stablecoin policies and IPOs, with expectations for more regulatory developments in the future [2][9]. - The valuation of overseas Chinese assets remains influenced by US-China trade relations and the broader economic environment, highlighting the need to monitor changes in US tariff policies and domestic economic strategies [2][9]. Industry Tracking Summary 1. Education - The education index decreased by 0.98% from June 9 to June 13, underperforming compared to major indices, with 51talk rising by 12.09% and Thinking Education falling by 11.55% [10][14]. 2. Luxury Goods - The luxury goods sector faced slight pressure, with key stocks like Prada declining by 6.01% while new brands like Shiseido rose by 2.02% during the same period [18][21]. 3. Coffee and Tea - The sector showed stable growth, with individual stocks like Luckin Coffee increasing by 1.87%, while others like Bawang Tea experienced declines [23][27]. 4. E-commerce - The e-commerce sector saw a slight decline, with major players like Alibaba and JD.com facing competitive pressures, while the Hang Seng Internet Technology Index rose by 3.46% [29][34]. 5. Streaming Platforms - The streaming sector outperformed, with Tencent Music and NetEase Cloud Music showing significant gains, while Netflix experienced a decline [35][38]. 6. Virtual Assets & Internet Brokers - The global cryptocurrency market capitalization increased by 5.9%, with Bitcoin and Ethereum prices showing slight fluctuations, indicating ongoing interest in virtual assets [42][43].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the Chinese consumer goods sector is becoming a defensive area in the market due to limited direct risks from exports and increasing expectations for the Chinese government to accelerate domestic consumption stimulus policies [1][2] - The Global X China Consumer Leaders ETF (02806) has only 4% of its revenue coming from the U.S., primarily affecting the home appliance and sportswear OEM industries [1] - Macroeconomic data supports the resilience of Chinese consumption, with Q1 GDP growing by 5.4%, surpassing the market expectation of 5.2%, and March retail sales increasing by 5.9%, higher than the expected 4.2% [1] Group 2 - Future Asset anticipates that stimulus policies will focus on several areas, including: 1) fertility support policies, which may benefit the milk powder and dairy industries; 2) consumption vouchers applicable to dining and general retail; 3) service consumption subsidies benefiting tourism, education, entertainment, and domestic services; 4) expansion of the "old-for-new" policy, which will continue to benefit home appliances, furniture, home decoration, automobiles, and consumer electronics [1] - The expectation of increased stimulus policies is likely to enhance immediate consumption growth, improve profit growth expectations, and lead to a revaluation of the sector [2] - The Global X China Consumer Leaders ETF captures recovery opportunities in the Chinese consumer sector through a balanced investment portfolio, investing in multiple policy-benefiting sub-sectors and defensive industries with low tariff risks [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "strong buy" rating for key companies in the e-commerce, local life, and shared mobility sectors, including Alibaba, JD Group, Pinduoduo, Meituan, and Didi Chuxing [18][20][19]. Core Insights - The e-commerce sector is expected to see a stable increase in profits, with leading companies currently undervalued, recommending Alibaba, JD Group, Pinduoduo, and Vipshop [18]. - Meituan's core business profits exceeded expectations, with significant growth in its takeaway services and plans for global expansion [19]. - Didi Chuxing is projected to maintain stable growth and profitability, supported by a solid user base and supply chain [20]. - Ctrip's overseas business is anticipated to grow steadily, with a projected revenue increase of 14%-15% in 2025 [21]. Industry Performance - The restaurant and tourism sector index decreased by 0.26%, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, which rose by 1.12% [5][7]. - The retail sector index increased by 2.23%, outperforming both the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index [5][7]. - The report highlights that the restaurant and tourism sector has seen a decline of 2.79% since the beginning of 2025, while the retail sector has decreased by 2.61% [7]. Key Company Recommendations - E-commerce: The competitive landscape is better than expected, with a recommendation for Alibaba, Pinduoduo, JD Group, and Vipshop [18]. - Local Life: Meituan's core business is expected to continue growing rapidly, with a target price of 178.8 HKD based on a 20x PE ratio [19]. - Shared Mobility: Didi Chuxing is recommended due to its stable market share and significant profit growth potential [20]. - OTA: Ctrip's revenue for Q4 2024 is projected at 12.74 billion CNY, with a 23.4% increase year-on-year [20]. Major News - JD's takeaway service surpassed 20 million daily orders within 75 days of launch, indicating strong market penetration [28]. - Keeta announced its entry into the Brazilian market, planning to invest 1 billion USD over five years [30]. - The successful IPO of the tea brand "Hushang Ayi" on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, opening with a 68.49% increase [25].