企业内部的AI应用，慢得超出想象。 2025年已行过半，人工智能在中国旅游行业的应用呈现出更加清晰的发展路径。 从最初的概念探讨到如今的规模化落地，AI技术正在切实改变着这个行业的运作方式。无论是旅行者的计划制定方式，还是旅游企业的经营管理模式， 都在经历着一场静默但深刻的变革。 9月11日，在2025环球旅讯峰会【住宿业峰会】论坛上，DTalk.org创办人顾青就环球旅讯推出的《2025下半年AI旅游应用趋势洞察报告》展开主题演讲， 着重探讨了旅游企业在AI内部落地方面的挑战和趋势。 此份报告来自于3000份样本调研，囊括了酒店、航司、景区、旅游科技等多领域企业，按企业规模分为千人以上、500-1000人、50-200人三档，调研对象 以握有决策权的管理层和销售应用人员为主。 以下是演讲实录，内容有删减： 大家好，我是DTalk.org创办人顾青，做了三十年互联网，基本从搜索引擎到现在OTA的产品都做过，今天和大家聊聊旅游行业AI应用的趋势与破局之 道。 在讲趋势前，我先抛个两个核心观点。第一个，真正推动AI在企业落地的，往往不是CEO，而是基层员工。不是说他们不重要，而是高层战略往下落到 具体业务场景的时 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates a divergence in performance within the social services sector, with leading companies outperforming their peers [5][7] - The overall revenue for the service consumption sector increased by 1.4% year-on-year in 1H2025, reaching 134% of 2019 levels, while profits declined by 11.5%, recovering to 79% of 2019 levels [12][15] - Key segments such as K12 education, human resources, and scenic areas showed both revenue and profit growth, while hotels, restaurants, tourism retail, and higher education faced challenges [12][13] Social Services Overview - In 1H2025, K12 training and human resources sectors saw revenue growth of 14.4% and 10.7%, respectively, with net profits increasing by 39.5% and 49.8% [12][15] - Scenic areas also reported growth, with revenues up by 3.9% and net profits by 2.4% [15] - Conversely, the hotel sector experienced a revenue decline of 4.5% and a significant profit drop of 40.6% [13][15] Travel Services - The hotel industry remains under pressure, with leading hotels like Huazhu Group and Shoulv Hotel showing resilience despite a decline in RevPAR [16][19] - In 1H2025, leading hotels continued to expand, with Huazhu adding 990 new hotels [16][18] - OTA companies benefited from overall travel demand, with significant growth in overseas business [7][24] Scenic Areas and OTA - Domestic tourism numbers surpassed pre-pandemic levels, with a 20.6% increase in travel volume in 1H2025 [24] - Scenic area performance varied, with Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism and Jiuhua Tourism showing strong growth, while Changbai Mountain faced challenges due to weather [29] - The average ticket price for domestic travel has not fully recovered, remaining at 95% of 2019 levels [24] Professional Services - The human resources sector is experiencing a mild recovery, with companies like Keri International and BOSS Zhipin performing well [7][16] - The education sector, particularly K12 training, continues to thrive, with a focus on AI applications enhancing efficiency [7][16] - The exhibition industry is awaiting macroeconomic improvements to boost performance [7][16] Restaurant and Tea Beverage Sector - The restaurant industry is under pressure, with same-store sales declining, while budget-friendly dining options are showing resilience [7][12] - The tea beverage sector is expanding, with leading brands like Mixue and Gu Ming performing exceptionally well [7][12]

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that while revenue growth in various sectors has improved in Q1 2025, profit margins have not increased, primarily due to intensified competition affecting profitability [1][2]. Group 1: Revenue and Profit Trends - The social services sector saw a revenue increase of 2.84% in Q2 2025, with a quarter-on-quarter improvement of 2.77 percentage points, attributed to a low base and stable demand [1]. - The retail sector experienced a revenue decline of 6.7% in Q2 2025, a narrowing drop compared to a 12.77% decline in Q1 2025 [1]. - Operating profit margins for the social services sector decreased to 7.61% in Q2 2025, down 0.84 percentage points quarter-on-quarter and 1.65 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Group 2: Sector-Specific Growth Opportunities - The brand retail and AI sectors are benefiting from multiple growth drivers, with the toy IP industry seeing significant momentum, particularly for Miniso, which is expected to focus on fewer but larger store openings to enhance profitability [2]. - The education sector is experiencing a normalization in high school supply and quality improvements, with a notable shift towards AI education by public examination companies [2]. - The smart glasses industry is witnessing rapid product iteration, although performance varies among companies, with Kangnait Optical continuing to show high growth while others like Doctor Glasses and Mingyue Lenses are slowing down [2]. Group 3: Travel and Retail Sector Dynamics - The hotel industry is seeing a reduction in demand decline in Q2 2025, driven by low base effects and operational strategy adjustments [3]. - Online Travel Agencies (OTAs) maintain a stable profit margin and are improving subsidy efficiency while investing overseas [3]. - The supermarket and department store sectors are undergoing significant adjustments, with supermarkets experiencing a revenue decline of 14.47% and continued pressure on profitability in department stores [3].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guotai Junan indicates that while the revenue growth in the social service sector has improved in Q2 2025, profits have not increased due to competitive pressures affecting profit margins [1] Group 1: Revenue and Profit Trends - The social service sector's revenue in Q2 2025 increased by 2.84%, showing a quarter-on-quarter improvement of 2.77 percentage points, primarily due to a low base and stable demand [1] - The operating profit margin for the social service sector in Q2 2025 was 7.61%, reflecting a decline of 0.84 percentage points quarter-on-quarter and 1.65 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The retail trade sector's operating profit margin was 1.81%, down 0.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, while it was up 0.1 percentage points compared to Q2 2024 [1] Group 2: High Growth Sectors - The collectible toy IP industry is experiencing significant growth, with Miniso reaching a turning point in same-store sales both domestically and internationally, focusing on fewer but larger store openings to improve profit margins [2] - The education sector is seeing improvements in high school supply and quality, with public examination companies actively investing in AI education [2] - The smart glasses industry is accelerating product iteration and market entry, although performance varies among companies, with Kangnait Optical continuing to grow while others like Doctor Glasses and Mingyue Lenses are slowing down [2] Group 3: Travel and Retail Sector Dynamics - The travel chain sector is at a low point but showing signs of stabilization, with hotel demand in Q2 2025 declining at a slower rate due to low base effects and operational strategy adjustments [3] - The OTA (Online Travel Agency) landscape remains stable with healthy profits and efficient subsidy strategies [3] - Supermarkets and department stores are undergoing significant adjustments, with supermarket revenues declining by 14.47% and department stores continuing to face pressure without signs of recovery [3]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The current market is experiencing strong inflows of new funds, particularly from foreign investments and margin financing, indicating a solid foundation for the ongoing bull market [1][6] - Since June, foreign capital has consistently flowed into the market, with passive funds contributing approximately 19 billion USD, equivalent to over 100 billion CNY into A-shares, and a similar amount into Hong Kong stocks [1][6] Key Market Trends - The market's trading volume has increased from 1.5 trillion to 2.3 trillion, with expectations to reach 2.5 trillion [2] - The bull market is still in its second phase of growth, with historical data suggesting that the market is not close to its peak [8] - Current financing balance as a percentage of market capitalization is around 0.85, below the peak of 0.9, indicating that there is still room for growth [8] Investment Strategy - The recommended investment strategy focuses on leading sectors such as brokerage firms, non-ferrous metals, and coal [4] - Attention should also be given to low-level state-owned enterprise restructuring areas, including electricity, power, and travel chains [4] - Growth sectors to watch include the Hang Seng Technology sector and domestic computing power layouts, such as Cambrian [4] Monitoring Market Dynamics - Short-term market peaks are typically accompanied by reduced trading volume; however, if the market continues to rise with increasing volume, it may not reach a peak soon [3][9] - Monitoring changes in trading volume is crucial for identifying potential entry points during market corrections [11] Risk Factors - Two primary risk factors to monitor include changes in overseas liquidity and international relations, particularly the stance of the Federal Reserve during the Jackson Hole meeting [12] - A hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve could trigger market corrections, while international relations, such as the Russia-Ukraine situation, should also be assessed for their potential impact on the market [12] Conclusion - The market remains robust with significant inflows and high trading volumes, suggesting continued upward momentum. However, vigilance is required regarding external factors that could influence market stability and growth potential [10][12]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a potential second wave of market growth, focusing on technology and cyclical leaders as key investment opportunities [3][6][11] Liquidity and Market Conditions - The report notes a decline in U.S. non-farm employment figures, raising concerns about the U.S. economy and increasing expectations for interest rate cuts, with a 10Y/2Y U.S. Treasury yield drop of 10BP/18BP since August [4][12] - Continuous monetary easing is highlighted, with weekly reverse repos exceeding 1 trillion yuan for four consecutive weeks, and a strong inflow into the bond market expected due to anticipated tax incentives [4][12] - Market trading volume remains stable at 1.6 to 1.8 trillion yuan, with financing balances nearing 2 trillion yuan, indicating robust new inflows [4][12] Investment Themes - The report identifies three main investment themes: 1. **Leading Companies**: Focus on sectors like non-ferrous metals, military industry, and state-owned enterprise restructuring, with PPI hitting a bottom [4][12] 2. **Domestic Innovation**: Anticipation of a recovery in domestic technology and semiconductor sectors, with high utilization rates in domestic foundries and clear expansion trends [5][13] 3. **Global Expansion**: The report discusses the ongoing global expansion of new investments in cultural sectors, gaming, and innovative pharmaceuticals [5][14] Market Phases and Performance - Historical analysis indicates that each market cycle sees a flow of new capital from institutional investors to retail investors, with the current phase identified as a second wave of growth [6][14][15] - The report outlines the performance of various sectors across different market phases, noting that technology and cyclical sectors are expected to lead in the current second wave of growth [16][30] PPI Trends - The report discusses the PPI cycle, indicating that PPI has reached a bottom and is expected to recover, which aligns with the performance of cyclical sectors [32][33]

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.28%, gaining 68 points to close at 24,658 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 0.61% [1] - The Hong Kong stock market saw a trading volume of HKD 157.9 billion in the morning session [1] - The National Healthcare Security Administration of China added innovative commercial insurance drugs to the list for 2025, supporting new drugs with high clinical value but payment bottlenecks, leading to a rise in the Hang Seng Biotechnology Index [1] Group 2 - Livzon Pharmaceutical (01513) surged by 12.69% as the Phase II clinical trial for its cardiovascular innovative drug H001 capsule completed patient enrollment [2] - InnoCare Pharma (02577) increased by 6.41%, planning to significantly enhance its 8-inch gallium nitride wafer production capacity over the next five years [2] - China Heartland Fertilizer (01866) rose by 3.83% following reports of a meeting held by relevant authorities to ensure the supply and stabilize prices of potash fertilizer [2] Group 3 - Chongqing Machinery and Electric (02722) saw a significant increase of over 17% due to catalysts in the domestic AIDC market, with Chongqing Cummins being a supplier for engines [2] Group 4 - Jifang Zhitu Holdings (09636) rose by 10.18% after announcing a proposed share placement to raise approximately HKD 746 million for developing on-chain financial resources [3] Group 5 - Smoore International (06969) fell by 3.55%, expecting a year-on-year decline of approximately 21% to 35% in half-year profits [4] - Kanglong Chemical (03759) issued a profit warning, dropping by 5.24%, with an expected year-on-year decline of 36% to 39% in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "strong buy" rating for key companies in the e-commerce and retail sectors, including Alibaba, JD Group, Pinduoduo, and Vipshop [19][21]. Core Insights - The restaurant and tourism sector index increased by 0.71%, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index (up 1.54%) and the ChiNext Index (up 1.50%) [5][7]. - Taobao Flash Sale launched a subsidy program of 50 billion yuan, resulting in a 140% increase in business for small and medium-sized restaurant merchants [27]. - Meituan's daily order volume for instant retail surpassed 120 million, with restaurant orders exceeding 100 million [28]. - The upcoming summer travel season is expected to boost the tourism sector, with strong demand for short-distance self-driving and family trips [5][19]. Industry Overview Restaurant and Tourism Sector - The top five stocks in the restaurant and tourism sector this week were ST Zhangjiajie (+2.58%), Qujiang Cultural Tourism (+2.17%), and Quanjude (+1.80%) [10]. - The overall performance of the restaurant and tourism sector has shown a decline of 1.09% since the beginning of 2025 [7]. E-commerce Sector - The competitive landscape in the e-commerce sector is perceived to be overly pessimistic, with expectations for profit stability and valuation recovery [19]. - The report highlights the strong performance of Alibaba, Pinduoduo, JD Group, and Vipshop, recommending them for investment [19][21]. Retail Sector - The report emphasizes the positive adjustments in Yonghui's strategy, focusing on quality retail trends and consumer trust [21]. - The retail sector is expected to see sustainable same-store growth due to improved service and product selection [21]. Key Company Recommendations - Meituan is expected to maintain its long-term competitiveness despite short-term competitive pressures in the food delivery market [21]. - Didi Chuxing is recommended due to its stable market share and significant profit growth potential [21]. - Ctrip Group's performance is projected to continue improving, particularly in international markets [22]. Major News - Luckin Coffee has re-entered the U.S. market with two new stores in Manhattan, targeting students and tourists [26]. - Taobao Flash Sale's subsidy program has significantly boosted sales across various food categories [27]. - Meituan has implemented a pilot program for rider pension insurance subsidies in several cities [29].

Core Viewpoint - The internet industry has entered a new investment cycle since 2025, with AI, overseas expansion, and instant retail becoming hot topics. Innovation and risk-taking are inherent to the internet's DNA, and while there is optimism about the incremental benefits of investments, a balance between short-term and long-term strategies is necessary [1]. Group 1: Internet Industry Trends - The "classical internet" approach is becoming outdated as the focus shifts from user numbers and transaction volumes to core profits, especially as the market matures and capital becomes more cautious [3]. - The industry is actively investing in AI, global expansion, and instant retail, but there is a need to account for uncertainties in future investments, particularly regarding financial health during periods of heavy investment [4]. Group 2: Gaming Industry Insights - The Chinese gaming market saw a 18% year-on-year growth in Q1 2025, with mobile gaming growing by 20% to 63.6 billion yuan [6]. - The "search, fight, retreat" gameplay has revitalized the shooting game sector, attracting competitive and growth-oriented players, leading to significant market increments [8]. - The PC gaming market also grew by 6.85% year-on-year in Q1 2025, indicating a collaborative growth between PC and mobile gaming [8]. Group 3: Advertising Industry Developments - The overall online advertising market grew by 15% year-on-year in Q1 2025, with a notable differentiation in growth rates among platforms [10]. - AI is enhancing advertising efficiency, with companies like Meta and Tencent leveraging AI to improve ad conversion rates and user engagement [15]. Group 4: E-commerce Sector Analysis - The e-commerce market is projected to grow by 12% year-on-year in 2025, driven by government subsidies and a shift from price wars to differentiated competition [26][28]. - Instant retail is seen as a new growth channel, although it is unlikely to disrupt the existing e-commerce market structure due to high fulfillment costs [29]. - The collaboration between platforms like Xiaohongshu and major e-commerce players aims to enhance transaction efficiency and brand visibility [33]. Group 5: Cloud Computing and AI Integration - The cloud computing sector is benefiting from increased AI demand, with a 19% year-on-year revenue growth in Q1 2025 [42]. - Major cloud providers are focusing on building ecosystems around AI applications, which is expected to drive future growth [45]. - The demand for AI-driven solutions is anticipated to increase, particularly in sectors like automotive, finance, and public services [46].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the Hong Kong stock market, particularly in sectors such as AI, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals, indicating a rising risk appetite among investors [2][9]. Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market has shown significant improvement in risk appetite, with notable performance in sectors like AI, new consumption, and innovative pharmaceuticals, leading to increased investor interest, especially in small and mid-cap stocks [2][9]. - The report suggests active participation in A+H shares due to observed discount phenomena in IPOs, with a focus on new consumption and manufacturing sectors [2][9]. - There is a sustained bullish outlook on virtual assets and the Web 3.0 market, driven by stablecoin policies and IPOs, with expectations for more regulatory developments in the future [2][9]. - The valuation of overseas Chinese assets remains influenced by US-China trade relations and the broader economic environment, highlighting the need to monitor changes in US tariff policies and domestic economic strategies [2][9]. Industry Tracking Summary 1. Education - The education index decreased by 0.98% from June 9 to June 13, underperforming compared to major indices, with 51talk rising by 12.09% and Thinking Education falling by 11.55% [10][14]. 2. Luxury Goods - The luxury goods sector faced slight pressure, with key stocks like Prada declining by 6.01% while new brands like Shiseido rose by 2.02% during the same period [18][21]. 3. Coffee and Tea - The sector showed stable growth, with individual stocks like Luckin Coffee increasing by 1.87%, while others like Bawang Tea experienced declines [23][27]. 4. E-commerce - The e-commerce sector saw a slight decline, with major players like Alibaba and JD.com facing competitive pressures, while the Hang Seng Internet Technology Index rose by 3.46% [29][34]. 5. Streaming Platforms - The streaming sector outperformed, with Tencent Music and NetEase Cloud Music showing significant gains, while Netflix experienced a decline [35][38]. 6. Virtual Assets & Internet Brokers - The global cryptocurrency market capitalization increased by 5.9%, with Bitcoin and Ethereum prices showing slight fluctuations, indicating ongoing interest in virtual assets [42][43].