Index Performance - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 26,564, down 1.0% for the day and up 3.6% year-to-date (YTD) [2] - The HSCEI closed at 9,134, down 0.9% for the day and up 2.5% YTD [2] - The MSCI China index closed at 86, down 1.0% for the day and up 3.6% YTD [2] Commodity Price Performance - Brent Crude remained stable at US$64 per barrel, with a YTD increase of 5.4% [3] - Gold prices rose to US$4,671 per ounce, reflecting an 8.1% increase YTD [3] - Copper prices fell to US$12,803 per ton, down 2.3% for the day but up 3.1% YTD [3] Economic Indicators - China's GDP growth moderated to 4.5% YoY in Q4 2025, slightly above expectations, with a full-year growth of 5% for 2025 [6] - Industrial profits in China decreased by 13.1% YoY as of January 27, 2026 [4] - The 1-Year Loan Prime Rate in China remained stable at 3.0% as of January 20, 2026 [4] Sector Insights - The OTA sector is under pressure due to an antitrust probe involving Trip.com, which saw a stock price drop of over 20% [10] - Despite the probe, long-term earnings impact on Trip.com is expected to be limited, with investor confidence potentially returning by August 2026 [10] - The property market in China is showing marginal improvement, but underlying pressures persist, with expectations for stabilization by late 2026 or early 2027 [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the industry, highlighting a favorable outlook for the tourism and leisure sectors due to government policies aimed at boosting domestic consumption and service spending [1][35]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the recovery of domestic tourism, with expected growth rates of 12% in revenue and 18% in visitor numbers for Q1-Q3 2025, driven by sustained leisure travel demand and the rise of experiential consumption [1][35]. - The overall tourism market is projected to grow by over 10% for the year, supported by government initiatives such as promoting spring and autumn travel and issuing cultural tourism consumption vouchers [1][35]. - Key companies recommended for investment include China Duty Free Group, Jin Jiang Hotels, Shouqi Group, Tongcheng Travel, and Ctrip Group, alongside high-growth tea beverage stocks like Gu Ming and low-valuation restaurant growth stocks like Green Tea Group [1][35]. Summary by Sections 1. Restaurant Sector - Offline consumption is gradually recovering, with Q4 restaurant revenue showing steady growth, achieving 519.9 billion and 605.7 billion yuan in October and November 2025, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 4.99% and 4.40% [7][10]. - Leading restaurant companies are recovering faster than the industry average, with significant revenue increases noted for major players [10][14]. 2. Tea Beverage Sector - The tea beverage sector has seen a surge in same-store sales growth due to delivery subsidies, with leading brands like Gu Ming and Hu Shang A Yi maintaining high growth rates of 15-20% [7][10][14]. - The number of new store openings has doubled compared to 2024, indicating aggressive expansion strategies among top brands [16]. 3. OTA (Online Travel Agency) - The recovery of outbound travel demand is evident, with strong performance in Southeast Asia routes and a notable increase in visitor numbers to Japan and South Korea [20][24]. - The report highlights the long-term profit potential of leading OTA companies like Ctrip and Tongcheng Travel, driven by the ongoing recovery in leisure travel demand and improved commission rates [24][25]. 4. Hotel Sector - The hotel industry is expected to see a stable RevPAR (Revenue per Available Room) in Q4, with a year-on-year growth of 6-8% in room supply [29][30]. - Major hotel chains like Shouqi and Jin Jiang are projected to maintain or improve their performance, benefiting from cost reductions and increased guest traffic during holiday periods [29][30][31]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the travel sector, particularly companies involved in OTA, hotels, and scenic spots, as they are likely to benefit from favorable government policies [1][35]. - Additionally, it recommends investing in high-growth tea beverage stocks and undervalued restaurant growth stocks, indicating a diversified approach to capitalizing on the recovery in consumer spending [1][35].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the significant increase in consumer complaints across various sectors, particularly in the OTA and food industries, driven by specific events and issues [1][12] - As of December 2025, the Black Cat Complaints platform has received nearly 31.95 million valid consumer complaints, with about 24.75 million responses from companies and approximately 20.99 million complaints resolved [1][12] - In December alone, there were nearly 790,000 valid complaints, indicating a notable rise in consumer dissatisfaction [1][12] Group 2 - The OTA sector saw a substantial increase in complaints, reaching nearly 14,000 in December, a month-on-month growth of 23.48%, largely due to hotel bookings for exams and New Year travel demands [2][13] - Complaints related to flight bookings accounted for over 6,300 cases, making up 45.54% of OTA complaints, with issues such as high cancellation fees and lack of compensation for flight changes being prominent [3][14] - Hotel booking complaints exceeded 5,100, representing 36.86% of OTA complaints, with consumers expressing concerns over unfulfilled cancellation policies and unsatisfactory hygiene conditions [3][14] Group 3 - In the airline sector, complaints reached nearly 4,500 in December, reflecting a 17.16% increase, with issues related to cancellation and change fees constituting nearly 60% of these complaints [4][16] - Specific complaints regarding flight cancellations or delays accounted for approximately 620 cases, representing 13.77%, while complaints about ticket price drops were around 580, making up 12.92% [4][16] - Among the top ten airlines, companies like China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines had a 100% complaint response rate, while Shenzhen Airlines and Capital Airlines had response rates below 10%, indicating poor complaint handling [5][17] Group 4 - The food sector experienced a dramatic increase in complaints, with nearly 5,000 cases reported in December, a staggering 137.21% increase, largely due to issues surrounding MKAN products [6][18] - MKAN's complaints alone reached 3,200, accounting for nearly 65% of food-related complaints, highlighting significant consumer backlash [6][18] - The exposure of illegal additives in Han Shu products led to a rapid rise in complaints, with 980 cases reported within just five days following the news [7][19]

Group 1: Macro Insights - The U.S. job market showed good performance in December, with non-farm employment slightly below expectations but an unemployment rate better than expected, indicating overall stability [4] - CPI has risen for four consecutive months, reaching the highest level since March 2023, while PPI has also shown signs of recovery, suggesting a potential upward trend in prices for 2026 [4][16] - The overall market sentiment is influenced by various macroeconomic indicators, with a focus on liquidity, economic performance, and valuation metrics [8][9] Group 2: New Energy Vehicles - The domestic new energy vehicle market continues to thrive, with projected sales for 2026 expected to reach 1,515 million units in China, reflecting a 15% year-on-year increase [17] - The demand for batteries and materials is expected to improve, with a significant increase in global battery demand anticipated [17][19] - Investment recommendations include focusing on key players in the battery sector such as CATL and other midstream material companies [19] Group 3: Wind Power Industry - The domestic wind power demand is steadily increasing, with expectations for offshore wind projects to accelerate as planning progresses [20] - The profitability of domestic wind turbine manufacturers is expected to improve, driven by price increases and export opportunities [20][21] - Investment suggestions include major turbine manufacturers and component suppliers, highlighting the potential for growth in the offshore wind sector [20] Group 4: Real Estate and REITs - The real estate market remains cautious, with land transaction volumes declining but at a slower rate, indicating a potential stabilization [12] - C-REITs have shown positive performance in the secondary market, with specific sectors like municipal water and data centers performing well [27] - Investment strategies focus on identifying quality projects with growth potential in high-demand urban areas [27] Group 5: Chemical Industry - Haohua Technology is positioned as a leading platform in new materials, benefiting from high demand in specialty chemicals and refrigerants [28][29] - The company has seen significant profit growth driven by rising prices in fluorinated chemicals, with expectations for continued upward momentum [29] - Investment recommendations emphasize the potential for growth in commercial aerospace and high-end electronic materials [29][32]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily focus on the **tourism, restaurant, hotel, and duty-free industries** in the context of post-pandemic recovery and government stimulus policies [1][2][4]. Key Points and Arguments Tourism Industry - Post-pandemic, the tourism penetration rate has increased significantly, with **Ctrip's stock performing strongly** and scenic area data showing high activity levels, indicating a robust tourism industry [1][2]. - Government subsidies for service consumption, particularly in tourism, have a notable multiplier effect, with regions like Gansu and Harbin successfully stimulating economic growth through tourism [1][2]. - The **OTA (Online Travel Agency) market** is expected to maintain rapid growth, with the top five OTAs holding over **90% market share**, and Ctrip nearing **50%** [2][10]. Restaurant Industry - The restaurant sector is benefiting from the recovery of the tourism market and subsidies from delivery platforms, leading to significant growth, especially in lower-tier markets [2][12]. - High-frequency, low-cost consumer goods like tea and coffee are showing strong demand elasticity, with double-digit growth rates expected [12][19]. - Recommended stocks include **Haidilao, Xiaocaiyuan, and Guoquan**, which are expected to perform well due to their competitive advantages [19]. Hotel Industry - The hotel sector is experiencing a narrowing decline in performance, with **H World** reporting stable data and **Jinjiang Inn** showing signs of recovery [6][7]. - The supply expansion rate is expected to decrease in the coming years, which may alleviate pressure on RevPAR (Revenue per Available Room) if demand remains stable [6]. - Jinjiang Inn is projected to recover from losses, with significant potential for revenue growth in the coming years [7][8]. Duty-Free Market - The duty-free market has shown positive performance since September, aided by low base effects and new policies, with expectations for continued growth if further supportive measures are implemented [5]. - The Hainan government aims for a duty-free market size of **60 billion** by 2027, up from **58 billion** in 2023, indicating a recovery trend [5]. Future Trends - The tea beverage industry is expected to grow significantly in 2025, driven by delivery subsidies and a rebound in scenic areas, with growth rates approaching high double digits [11][13]. - Head companies like **Mixue Ice City** and **Guming** are expanding rapidly, with strong supply chain capabilities and competitive pricing strategies [14][15][17]. - The restaurant industry is anticipated to see a recovery in demand, particularly during holidays, with a focus on high-value, chain-operated businesses that can manage supply chains effectively [18][19]. Additional Important Insights - The **duty-free market** is influenced by government policies and consumer behavior, with a notable impact from promotional activities and consumer awareness campaigns [5]. - The **OTA industry** is adapting to market changes by focusing on niche segments and enhancing customer engagement through innovative offerings [10]. - The overall sentiment in the restaurant and tourism sectors is optimistic, with expectations for sustained growth driven by consumer demand and strategic business expansions [12][19].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guosen Securities emphasizes that boosting domestic demand will be a key focus for economic development in 2026, with significant potential for growth in service consumption compared to overseas markets, supported by monetary, temporal, and supply-side constraints [1] Group 1: Sector Overview - Overall, there is a moderate recovery in the consumption sector, with service consumption growth outpacing goods consumption and restaurant growth, leading to an increasing share of service consumption [1] - Changes in demand, policy, and technology are driving structural shifts in the market, with younger consumers favoring experiential spending, while B2B demand remains at a low point [1] - Policy factors and globalization are influencing corporate decisions, leading to market reshuffling and transformations in industries like high-end dining, while outbound consumption remains a significant growth curve [1] Group 2: Market Performance - The consumer services sector has underperformed year-to-date, with overall gains of 14.55%, lagging behind the CSI 300 by 3.81 percentage points; however, the sector has shown signs of stabilization since Q4, outperforming the benchmark [2] - The proportion of holdings in consumer services sector funds has dropped to a historical low of 0.29% as of Q3 2025, down 0.10 percentage points from Q2 2025 [2] Group 3: Sub-industry Insights - Duty-Free: Domestic duty-free is expected to gradually capture high-end demand due to policy support and strengthened supply chains, potentially leading to a new cycle and valuation uplift [3] - Hotels: Opportunities arise from improving supply-demand dynamics, with steady growth in leisure tourism and a gradual bottoming out of business travel demand [3] - Scenic Areas: The performance of scenic areas is influenced by calendar effects, with a focus on trends that align with demographic changes and local asset integration [3] - OTA: Online Travel Agencies are likely to benefit directly from service consumption policies, with stable profit margins being the main trend [3] - Chain Dining: As delivery subsidies taper off, leading brands are innovating product lines to address market pressures, with potential for recovery if CPI trends improve [3] Group 4: Education Sector - The education sector is expected to maintain its attractiveness due to strong employment orientation and the relative lag in public examination recruitment and vocational training, alongside advancements in AI applications [4] Group 5: Human Resources - Human resources are viewed as a barometer for economic recovery, with a focus on improving labor sentiment among enterprises and the empowerment of AI technology [5]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market has experienced increased volatility in the fourth quarter, with investors speculating on the potential for a "Christmas rally" similar to the "spring market" in A-shares [1][2] - Despite the potential for a rebound narrative, the actual investment guidance may be limited, as the market is still under supply and demand pressure, and the right-side turning point remains unclear [3][4] - The Hang Seng Index and other major indices have shown signs of fluctuation, with net inflows from southbound funds exceeding 240 billion HKD in the fourth quarter, indicating a shift in market dynamics [2][3] Group 2 - The market is expected to benefit from a favorable macroeconomic environment and a potential easing of overseas liquidity, which could enhance risk appetite and stabilize the Hong Kong stock market [3][4] - Key sectors for investment include upstream resources in the power chain, travel-related stocks, and leading domestic AI companies, which are seen as having significant layout value [1][4][5] - Emerging industries such as solid-state batteries, brain-computer interfaces, and biotechnology are anticipated to gain momentum, supported by the "14th Five-Year Plan" and improving macroeconomic conditions [4][5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Hong Kong Stock Connect high dividend sectors currently possess strong allocation value, with a focus on the improvement of profitability in the Hang Seng Technology constituents after excluding companies affected by the food delivery war [1] - The Hang Seng Technology constituents are projected to see a 13.6% year-on-year revenue growth and a 21.7% growth in Non-GAAP net profit by 2025, contributing nearly 60% to the market value increase, indicating sustained profitability improvement [1] - The liquidity aspect highlights that the Federal Reserve has entered a rate-cutting cycle, with net inflows of southbound funds reaching 1.3 trillion yuan this year, which has driven valuation recovery [1] Group 2 - The current sector's price-to-earnings ratio is 20 times, which is at the 15th percentile of the past five years, while the price-to-book ratio stands at 1.5 times, with dividend yields generally in the range of 4%-6%, providing both defensive characteristics and valuation elasticity [1] - Specific sub-sectors such as internet healthcare and OTA maintain growth rates above 15%, and the application of AI technology has significantly reduced costs and improved efficiency for leading platforms, suggesting that a macroeconomic recovery could further enhance profit elasticity due to their cyclical consumption attributes [1] - The Hong Kong Dividend ETF (159331) tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect high dividend index (930914), which selects 30 high dividend yield securities with good liquidity and consistent dividends, focusing on financial and traditional sectors, reflecting the overall performance of quality securities under a high dividend strategy [1]

Market Overview - Global markets showed mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 25,928, up 0.13% year-to-date increase of 29.25% [1] - The US markets continued to rise, with the Dow Jones up 0.67% and the S&P 500 up 0.69%, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 11.48% and 15.83% respectively [1] - European markets also saw gains, driven by improved fiscal outlooks in the UK, with the DAX up 1.11% and the CAC up 0.88% [1] Sector Performance - In the Hong Kong market, healthcare, conglomerates, and telecommunications sectors led the gains, while materials, information technology, and energy sectors faced declines [3] - The semiconductor optical module industry is expected to perform strongly, driven by AI infrastructure investments, with significant revenue growth anticipated through 2026 [4][5] Company Insights - Tongcheng Travel reported a robust 3Q25 performance with total revenue reaching 5.5 billion RMB, a 10.4% year-on-year increase, and adjusted net profit of 1.06 billion RMB, up 16.5% [5] - Ideal Auto's 3Q25 results showed a net loss of 625 million RMB, primarily due to a one-time recall cost, but the gross margin remained high at approximately 20.4% [6][7] - The report suggests that Ideal Auto may face challenges in sales and gross margins in the upcoming quarters, leading to a downgrade in rating from "Buy" to "Hold" [7] Investment Recommendations - The semiconductor optical module sector is highlighted as a key investment opportunity, with a buy rating on Zhongji Xuchuang, targeting a price of 591 RMB [4] - Tongcheng Travel is also rated as a buy, with a target price adjustment to 25.4 HKD, reflecting a positive outlook on its core OTA business [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the social services industry, indicating an expectation of returns exceeding the market benchmark by over 5% [5]. Core Insights - The social services sector is showing resilience during the off-peak season, supported by fundamental data and a shift in funding styles, creating conditions for relative returns across industries [4]. - Key areas of focus include mid-cap blue-chip characteristics, growth potential, and recovery prospects in performance, particularly in OTA, hotels, human resources, and select dining and scenic spots [4]. Summary by Sections Hotels - The hotel sector demonstrates strong fundamentals with a recovery in performance. Huazhu reported a revenue of 7 billion yuan for Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, surpassing previous growth guidance [8]. - The national hotel RevPAR turned positive in October 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, indicating a stable volume and rising prices [8]. Scenic Spots - The demand for scenic spots remains robust due to the autumn holiday and the upcoming winter season, with double-digit growth in visitor numbers reported [8]. - For instance, the Jianmen Pass scenic area saw a 30% increase in visitors during the autumn holiday, and hotel bookings in Zhejiang rose by 68% [8]. Duty-Free - The duty-free shopping scene in Hainan is recovering, with sales reaching 506 million yuan from November 1-7, 2025, a year-on-year increase of 34.86% [8]. - This recovery is attributed to low base effects, new policies, and promotional activities, alongside a shift in consumer behavior due to international travel restrictions [8]. OTA (Online Travel Agencies) - Ctrip's Q3 2025 report showed a net operating income of 18.3 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of approximately 16% [8]. - The international OTA orders grew by about 60%, with inbound travel orders doubling, indicating a strong recovery in domestic travel demand [8].