December 8, 2025 02:43 PM GMT Greater China Technology Hardware | Asia Pacific GB200/300 NVL72 Racks in November We provide monthly and quarterly rack shipment forecasts by ODM for 2025. Within the major GPU AI server ODMs, our order of preference is Wistron > Hon Hai > Quanta. Key Takeaways Our GB200/300 racks forecast now stands at 27.3k (slightly lowered from 28k previously): This mainly reflects our updated 4Q25 rack forecast for Quanta, after its 3Q25 earnings call. Management said 4Q25 AI will grow q/ ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Asian Technology** sector, specifically the **datacenter power**, **liquid cooling**, and **ODM rack build** related to AI server technology [1][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **AI Server Demand and Shipments**: - Forecast for 2025 indicates approximately **38,000 NVL72 racks** in demand, with **10,000-11,000** in order backlog. For 2026, demand is expected to rise to **50,000-60,000 NVL72 racks** [4][10]. - The anticipated **double YoY growth** in shipments suggests strong revenue potential for AI server ODMs and component vendors [4]. - **GB300/VR200 Server Updates**: - The ramp-up for **GB300 servers** is slower than expected, with a more significant increase anticipated in **1Q26**. The **VR200 modules** are expected to ramp in **2Q26**, with delays likely due to ongoing discussions on specifications [4]. - Key specification changes for the VR200 include increased power consumption and enhanced cooling solutions, which will impact the overall design and manufacturing landscape [4]. - **Power Supply Unit (PSU) Market Growth**: - The global datacenter power installed base is projected to grow from **117 GW in 2025 to 242 GW in 2028**, representing a **27% CAGR** [5]. - The server PSU total addressable market (TAM) is expected to grow at a **64% CAGR** during the same period, benefiting companies like **Delta Electronics** [5]. - **Liquid Cooling Market Expansion**: - The sidecar/CDU TAM is projected to grow from **$6 billion in 2025 to $21 billion by 2028**, indicating a **54% CAGR** driven by increased AI server power consumption [5]. - Companies like **Delta** are positioned to benefit from this trend, with expected revenue growth of **36% CAGR** in liquid cooling systems from 2025 to 2027 [5]. - **Competitive Landscape**: - The potential shift towards standardized compute trays by Nvidia could lead to a more concentrated competitive landscape among NVL72 L10 server ODMs [4]. - Rising competition in the MCP market is anticipated as Nvidia may adopt a "consign" model, limiting customization and increasing competition among suppliers [5]. Additional Important Insights - **Stock Implications**: - J.P. Morgan has an **Overweight (OW)** rating on companies like **Wiwynn**, **Hon Hai**, and **Quanta** in the Taiwan ODM space, as well as **Delta** and **Chroma** in the datacenter power sector [6]. - In the liquid cooling space, **Jentech** and **Fositek** are identified as major beneficiaries from content growth [6]. - **Technological Advancements**: - The report highlights the importance of adopting advanced cooling solutions and power supply architectures to enhance efficiency and reduce power conversion losses in future AI datacenters [5]. - **Market Dynamics**: - The report indicates a potential market share shift from traditional server brands to server ODMs, reflecting changing dynamics in the datacenter hardware landscape [4]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding the datacenter power and liquid cooling industry, emphasizing the growth potential driven by AI server demand and technological advancements.

Core Viewpoint - Rigetti Computing is preparing to release its third-quarter 2025 results, with expectations of a loss per share of 5 cents and revenues of $2.39 million, indicating a year-over-year growth of 37.5% in earnings but only a modest revenue growth of 0.4% [2][3]. Financial Performance - The consensus estimate for 2025 revenues is $8.7 million, reflecting a decline of 19.7% year over year, while the loss per share is expected to be 9 cents, suggesting a year-over-year growth of 75% [4]. - Rigetti has had mixed performance in the past four quarters, surpassing the consensus estimate once, missing once, and meeting expectations twice, resulting in an average earnings surprise of negative 10.8% [4]. Earnings Analysis - Rigetti has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%, indicating no expected earnings surprise for the upcoming report [5]. - The company currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), suggesting a neutral outlook [6]. Market and Operational Factors - The third-quarter performance is likely to be influenced by uncertainties in U.S. public-sector funding, particularly due to the expiration of the National Quantum Initiative [7]. - Rigetti's rollout of the Cepheus-1-36Q quantum system is expected to provide early benefits, with strong technical gains and increased experimentation among customers [8]. Cash Position and Valuation - Rigetti has over $570 million in cash and no debt, positioning it well for continued system development and stable margin execution [9]. - Year-to-date, Rigetti's shares have gained 125.1%, outperforming the broader Internet Software industry, which advanced 10.2% [12]. Long-Term Strategy - Rigetti aims to deliver a 100+ qubit chiplet-based system with approximately 99.5% fidelity by the end of 2025, with a long-term goal of achieving a 1,000-qubit system [13]. - The company is focusing on building an ecosystem through partnerships, such as the collaboration with Quanta Computer Inc., which includes significant financial commitments from both parties [17][18]. Commercial Developments - Recent orders for the Novera QPU systems indicate growing demand for quantum systems beyond government labs, with potential for broader enterprise adoption in the future [15][16]. - The integration of Novera with NVIDIA's DGX Quantum platform highlights Rigetti's efforts in hybrid quantum-classical workflows [18]. Investment Outlook - The upcoming third-quarter results are expected to reflect steady progress rather than a major financial turning point, supporting a hold view for investors [19]. - While Rigetti's balance sheet allows for continued investment, visibility into larger commercial demand remains limited, suggesting a cautious approach for prospective investors [21].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - **Industry**: Greater China Technology Hardware - **Focus**: Monthly and quarterly rack shipment forecasts for GPU AI server ODMs in 2025 Key Points 1. **Rack Shipment Forecasts**: The GB200/300 racks forecast remains at 28,000 units, with expectations for significant growth in Q4 to 14,000-15,000 racks, up from 8,000-8,500 in Q3 [3][11] 2. **October Rack Builds**: October rack builds increased approximately 3% month-over-month, indicating a positive trend for Q4 builds [3] 3. **GB200 and GB300 Developments**: GB200 rack builds are expected to continue into Q1 2026, while GB300 builds have commenced and are anticipated to ramp up smoothly without yield issues reported [3] Company-Specific Insights Quanta Computer Inc. (2382.TW) - **October Revenue**: Approximately NT$173 billion, a decrease of 6% month-over-month but an increase of 27% year-over-year - **Shipments**: Lower notebook shipments at 3.5 million units (-24% m/m), partially offset by higher GB200 rack output of 850-900 racks [4] Wistron Corporation (3231.TW) - **October Revenue**: NT$185 billion, down 9% month-over-month but up 92% year-over-year - **Shipments**: Slight decrease in L10 computing trays (300-350 rack equivalents, down 40-45% m/m) and a minor decline in notebook shipments at 2.1 million units [5] Hon Hai Precision (2317.TW) - **October Shipments**: GB200 rack shipments were stable at approximately 2,600 racks - **Future Expectations**: Anticipated increase in server rack shipments, contingent on customer schedules for infrastructure builds [6] Market Dynamics - **Market Share**: As of October 2025, Hon Hai holds 50% of the GB200/300 NVL72-equivalent rack supply, followed by Quanta at 22%, Wistron at 20%, and Wiwynn at 2% [17] - **Rack Mix Breakdown**: The GB200 racks account for 79% of the total, while GB300 racks make up 21% [20] Risks and Opportunities - **Upside Risks**: Better-than-expected demand for iPhones, AI server business growth, and potential M&A activities [25][26] - **Downside Risks**: Slower-than-expected AI server penetration, geopolitical issues affecting investments, and margin pressures from rising labor costs [28] Analyst Ratings - **Overall Industry View**: In-Line [8] - **Company Ratings**: - Quanta: Overweight - Wistron: Overweight - Hon Hai: Overweight [83] Conclusion The conference call highlighted a positive outlook for the Greater China Technology Hardware sector, particularly in the GPU AI server market, with significant growth expected in rack shipments. Company-specific performances varied, with some experiencing revenue declines while others showed strong year-over-year growth. The market dynamics indicate a competitive landscape with potential risks and opportunities that could impact future performance.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the Taiwan ODM (Original Design Manufacturer) sector, focusing on server and PC markets, particularly in relation to Nvidia's GPU shipments and AWS AI ASIC demand [1][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments Server Market - **3Q25 Revenue Performance**: Most Taiwan server ODMs reported revenues in line with expectations for 3Q25, with a noted pause in general server shipment momentum due to inventory pre-builds driven by tariffs in 1H25 [1][3]. - **Nvidia Shipments**: The ramp-up of Nvidia's GB200/300 shipments was slower than anticipated, attributed to product transitions and yield improvements [1][3]. - **Future Expectations**: A flat quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) trend in general servers is expected, with a significant increase in GB rack shipments anticipated in 4Q25 due to the GB300 ramp [1][3]. - **AWS AI ASIC Demand**: Strong demand for AWS AI ASICs was noted, although a potential slowdown is expected in 4Q25 to 1Q26 due to product transitions [1][3]. PC Market - **Notebook ODM Performance**: The 3Q25 notebook ODM build was in line with estimates, showing a 3% QoQ growth. However, a high single-digit percentage decline in shipments is forecasted for 4Q25 due to seasonal trends [1][4]. - **PC Brand Performance**: Preliminary data indicated a stronger-than-expected sell-in shipment growth of 11% QoQ and 9% YoY for PCs, suggesting potential earnings upside for brands like Lenovo and ASUSTek [4][5]. - **Market Share Shifts**: There is a noted shift in market share from Taiwan NB ODMs to mainland Chinese vendors, impacting overall performance [4]. Component Vendors - **VGA/Motherboard Trends**: VGA and motherboard shipments are expected to show sub-seasonal trends, with a forecast of flattish to single-digit declines in 4Q25 [8]. - **GPU Supply**: Management indicated tight GPU supply in July and August, with gradual improvements expected in September [8]. Additional Important Insights - **iPhone 17 Demand**: The new iPhone 17 cycle has shown better-than-expected demand, leading to significant revenue increases for Hon Hai and Pegatron in September [8]. - **Company Preferences**: In the server ODM space, the preferred companies are Hon Hai, Quanta, Wiwynn, and Wistron. For the PC sector, Lenovo, ASUSTek, MSI, and Compal are favored [1][3]. Financial Data Highlights - **3Q25 Sales Summary**: - Asus: NT$78.9 billion, 31% MoM increase, 34% YoY increase - Acer: NT$21.8 billion, 0% MoM, -4% YoY - MSI: NT$19.6 billion, 4% MoM, -1% YoY - Hon Hai: NT$837.1 billion, 38% MoM, 14% YoY [5]. Conclusion - The Taiwan ODM sector is experiencing mixed trends, with strong demand in certain areas like AWS AI ASICs and iPhone production, while facing challenges in general server shipments and PC market share dynamics. The outlook for 4Q25 suggests a seasonal decline in shipments, but potential growth in specific segments remains.

Core Insights - Astera Labs is leading the development of semiconductor-based connectivity solutions for rack-scale AI infrastructure, emphasizing the shift towards unified computing platforms rather than individual servers [1][2] - The company is showcasing its ecosystem collaborations at the 2025 OCP Global Summit, highlighting the importance of open standards for AI Infrastructure 2.0 [1][2] Industry Trends - The AI infrastructure landscape is transitioning from server-level architectures to rack-scale systems, driven by significant investments from hyperscalers [2] - Open standards are essential for integrating diverse accelerators, interconnects, and management tools, enabling optimized solutions for specialized AI workloads [2] Ecosystem Collaborations - Astera Labs is collaborating with various industry leaders, including AMD, Arm, and Molex, to enhance AI infrastructure through high-performance connectivity solutions [3][4][9] - These partnerships focus on delivering reliable, high-speed cable solutions and ensuring robust signal integrity across rack-scale distances [3][9] Technical Innovations - The company is presenting technical sessions on UALink deployment strategies and PCIe 6 security considerations at the OCP Global Summit [2] - Astera Labs' Intelligent Connectivity Platform integrates multiple semiconductor-based technologies, including CXL, Ethernet, PCIe, and UALink, to create cohesive systems [13] Market Position - Astera Labs positions itself as a key player in the AI infrastructure market by providing purpose-built connectivity solutions grounded in open standards [13] - The company's collaborations aim to accelerate the adoption of open rack architectures, enhancing performance, interoperability, and scalability for customers [10][12]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the Greater China Technology Hardware sector, specifically the GPU AI server ODMs (Original Design Manufacturers) [1][7]. Core Insights and Arguments - The forecast for GB200/300 rack shipments has been raised to 28,000 units for 2025, up from approximately 27,600 units previously. This includes an estimated 8,500 units shipped in Q3 and a projected increase to 14,300 units in Q4, which is higher than the previous estimate of 13,200 units [3][9]. - The increase in rack shipments is not expected to impact NVIDIA, as these are downstream builds. Q3 shipments are in line with expectations, and there is potential upside for Q4 2025 and 1H 2026 [3][9]. - Quanta's September revenue was approximately NT$184 billion, reflecting a month-over-month increase of 20% and a year-over-year increase of 19%. This growth is attributed to higher notebook shipments and increased GB200 rack output [4]. - Wistron's September revenue reached NT$203 billion, an 18% month-over-month increase and a significant 110% year-over-year increase. The growth is driven by a substantial increase in computing tray shipments [5]. - Hon Hai's GB200 rack shipments were approximately 2,600 racks in September, contributing to a year-to-date total of around 6,900 racks [5][9]. Additional Important Information - The report indicates that actual deliveries to end customers may be lower than reported figures due to the inclusion of Wistron's computing tray equivalents without accounting for assembly and testing times [11]. - The market share for GB200/300 NVL72-equivalent rack supply is dominated by Hon Hai (50%), followed by Quanta (22%), Wistron (20%), Wiwynn (2%), and others (6%) [16]. - For 2026, it is challenging to forecast rack shipments, but an assumption of around 2 million Blackwell chips could lead to an estimated 60,000 to 70,000 racks [10]. - Risks to the upside include better-than-expected demand for iPhones and AI servers, while risks to the downside involve geopolitical developments and slower-than-expected progress in the AI server business [24][27]. Valuation Methodology - The valuation for Hon Hai is based on a residual income model with key assumptions including a cost of equity of 8.5%, a medium-term growth rate of 13%, and a terminal growth rate of 3% [20]. - Quanta's valuation also follows a residual income model with a cost of equity of 9.0% and similar growth assumptions [21]. - Wistron's valuation is based on an 8.7% cost of equity and a medium-term growth rate of 7.0% [22]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights and data from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the Greater China Technology Hardware sector.

Core Insights - The U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) has granted export licenses to NVIDIA, allowing the supply of AI chips worth billions to the United Arab Emirates (UAE), implementing a deal reached in May [1] - The collaboration involves OpenAI, Abu Dhabi MGX, SoftBank of Japan, and Oracle to establish a "Middle East version of the Stargate Project" with a total scale of 1GW, utilizing NVIDIA's latest GB300 platform [1] - This marks the first approval for NVIDIA to sell AI chips to the UAE since the Trump administration took office, indicating a positive outlook for related Taiwanese manufacturers [1] - The U.S. issued the licenses after the UAE proposed a significant "reciprocal investment" plan, although specific figures regarding chip export amounts and UAE investments remain undisclosed [1] - A major data center with a capacity of 5GW is planned in the UAE capital, with OpenAI as a primary tenant, despite concerns from some U.S. officials regarding the location and scale of the facility [1] Industry Developments - The U.S. plans to approve the export of up to 500,000 advanced AI chips annually, with one-fifth allocated for G42, a major AI player in Abu Dhabi [2] - However, the initial export licenses do not include chips for G42, which is collaborating with OpenAI to develop an AI park in the UAE capital [2]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **Datacenter Market** within the **Hardware Technology** sector, specifically regarding **ODM (Original Design Manufacturer) Direct** server shipments in the Asia Pacific region. Core Insights 1. **ODM Shipments Growth**: In 2Q25, ODM shipments increased by **3% quarter-over-quarter (q/q)** and **10% q/q** in value, driven by a growing mix of AI servers [1][2] 2. **Server Shipment Statistics**: Global ODM direct server shipments reached **1.91 million units** in 2Q25, reflecting a **3% q/q** and **46% year-over-year (y/y)** growth. This accounted for **45.4%** of total global server shipments [2] 3. **Market Share Dynamics**: - **Wiwynn** led the ODMs with a **23.7%** market share, followed closely by **Quanta** at **23.2%** and **Inventec** at **19.8%**. - **AMD** regained market share to **44.2%**, while **Intel** saw a decline to **38.1%** [2][10] 4. **Regional Performance**: Central & Eastern Europe exhibited the highest growth in shipment units at **105% y/y**, with the US following at **64% y/y**. The US remains the largest market, accounting for **76%** of aggregate ODM direct shipments [3][10] Financial Metrics 1. **Aggregate ODM Direct Server Shipment Value**: The total shipment value was **US$65.4 billion**, marking a **10% q/q** and **201% y/y** increase, primarily due to AI servers [2] 2. **Price Trends**: The average selling price (ASP) of ODM servers increased by **7% q/q** in 2Q25, attributed to improved yields and increased GB200 shipments [4] Company Preferences - The report expresses a preference for specific ODM companies, highlighting **Hon Hai/FII**, **Wistron**, and **Quanta** as favorable investment opportunities [1][4] Additional Insights 1. **AI Server Demand**: The demand for AI servers continues to be a significant driver of growth in the ODM sector, contributing to the overall increase in shipment value [2][4] 2. **Market Challenges**: The report notes uncertainties around tariff implementations that could impact future growth, yet strong demand from cloud services has supported unit share gains for key players [4] Conclusion - The conference call provides a comprehensive overview of the ODM direct server market, highlighting growth trends, competitive dynamics, and financial metrics that indicate a robust demand for AI servers and a favorable outlook for selected ODM companies in the Asia Pacific region.

Group 1 - Vuzix Corporation has successfully achieved milestones related to its strategic investment agreement with Quanta Computer Inc [1] - Vuzix is recognized as a leading supplier of smart glasses and augmented reality technology [1] - The announcement was made on September 22, 2025, in Rochester, N.Y [1] Group 2 - The strategic investment agreement is significant for Vuzix's growth and development in the AR technology sector [1] - Quanta Computer Inc is a notable partner in this investment agreement, indicating a strong collaboration in the tech industry [1] - The achievement of these milestones may enhance Vuzix's market position and operational capabilities [1]