Core Viewpoint - Spain's competition authority has imposed fines totaling 20.5 million euros ($24.2 million) on three companies within the Repsol group for engaging in what is described as an abusive margin-squeeze strategy [1] Group 1: Regulatory Actions - The fines are a result of the companies' practices that the competition watchdog deemed harmful to market competition [1] - The total amount of fines levied is significant, indicating the authority's strict stance on anti-competitive behavior [1] Group 2: Impact on Repsol Group - The financial penalty may impact the Repsol group's operational costs and overall profitability [1] - This regulatory action could lead to increased scrutiny of the Repsol group's pricing strategies in the future [1]

Group 1 - Venture Global, Inc. is ranked fourteenth among the 20 most profitable stocks over the last 20 years [1] - UBS has lowered its price target for Venture Global, Inc. to $16 from $18 while maintaining a Buy rating, following a successful arbitration decision with Repsol [1][2] - The arbitration resolution is considered a key catalyst for Venture Global, as it pertains to LNG sales from the Calcasieu Pass project [2] Group 2 - Venture Global, Inc. is a major U.S. energy company and one of the largest exporters of liquefied natural gas (LNG), developing and operating LNG production facilities along the Gulf Coast [3] - The company provides long-term global contracts and integrated supply chain services, including gas production, transport, shipping, and regasification [3]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the upcoming 4Q25 earnings season for Europe's Big Oils, starting with Equinor on February 4th, 2026, and the guidance for 2026 is expected to be a key topic [1][9] - The preference ranking for investment is Oil Services > Big Oils > Exploration & Production (E&Ps), with TotalEnergies (TTE) highlighted as the top pick among Big Oils [1] Core Insights and Arguments - The $60/bbl Brent price assumption is challenging for Europe's Big Oils, leading to a projected decline in refining margins by 35% compared to 4Q25 [2] - Capital expenditure (capex) budgets are expected to remain flat, with an average buyback cut of approximately 25% across the sector, except for TTE [2] - TTE and Galp are noted for their organically falling breakeven Brent prices, with TTE's Integrated Power business transitioning from a drag to a contributor to free cash flow (FCF) [3][11] - TTE's recent trading update has positively influenced consensus estimates, contrasting with downgrades from peers like BP and Shell [4] Financial Projections - The aggregate organic cash flow from major companies is projected to show a $16 billion deficit post distributions, which decreases to approximately $5.5 billion after accounting for inorganic cash flows [13] - TTE is expected to have the lowest organic breakeven price in the peer group at around $60/bbl for 2026, with projections of it dropping below $55/bbl by 2027 [14][16] - TTE's capex is anticipated to decline by over 10% year-on-year in 2026, with a significant reduction expected by 2028 [17][20] Balance Sheet and Debt Analysis - The analysis indicates that all Big Oils will reduce shareholder distributions in 2026 compared to 2025, with Equinor expected to see the most significant declines [22] - BP is projected to maintain the highest gearing in the peer group at around 40%, while TTE and Galp are expected to decrease their net debt year-on-year [31][36] Market Sentiment and Consensus - The consensus estimates for 4Q25 earnings have been revised down by 8% year-to-date, with TTE showing a rare positive update that has led to flat revisions compared to an average 8% downgrade across peers [49] - The overall sentiment indicates a cautious outlook for cash flows, with aggregate payouts expected to exceed 140% of organic FCF at the $60/bbl Brent price [10] Upcoming Catalysts - Key upcoming earnings reports include Galp and Equinor on February 4th, followed by several other companies throughout February [62] Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of cash flow cushions and balance sheet strength, particularly for TTE and Equinor, as they navigate the challenging oil price environment [10][11] - The analysis suggests that the market may have already priced in the expected cuts to buybacks, indicating a potential for volatility in stock performance as earnings reports are released [65] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding the oil industry and specific companies, particularly focusing on TotalEnergies and its competitive positioning within the sector.

Core Viewpoint - Italy's Eni and Spain's Repsol are pursuing repayment for gas supplied to the country without charge [1] Group 1 - Eni and Repsol have been providing gas to Italy at no cost, which has raised concerns regarding financial compensation [1] - The companies are now seeking to recover costs associated with the gas they have supplied, indicating a shift in their operational strategy [1]

Core Insights - The merger between Galp and Moeve aims to consolidate their downstream operations, creating a significant player in the Southern European refining and retail market with a combined capacity of approximately 710,000 b/d [4][13] - The merger is strategically designed to enhance retail integration and scale, allowing the combined entity to better navigate the competitive landscape and adapt to evolving market demands [11][12] Refining Capacity and Configuration - The merged system will include three core refineries: San Roque (250,000 b/d), La Rábida (240,000 b/d), and Sines (225,000 b/d), collectively accounting for nearly 30% of Spain's national distillation capacity [2] - The refineries are configured to optimize gasoline and middle-distillate yields, with diesel/gasoil making up about 40% of output, gasoline around 20%, and jet fuel typically 10-15% [1] Demand Trends - Gasoline demand in Spain has shown unexpected growth, peaking at approximately 187,000 b/d in July 2025, with an annual growth rate of 8% for 2025 [5][6] - Diesel demand remains stable, reflecting the dominance of diesel engines in the vehicle fleet, while the anticipated decline in clean-product demand has not yet occurred [7] Vehicle Sales and Market Dynamics - By mid-2025, hybrids accounted for about 40% of new car registrations in Spain, supporting gasoline consumption rather than displacing it [8] - The tourism sector has also contributed to gasoline demand, with record visits to Spain and Portugal in 2025 [8] Export and Competitive Landscape - The increase in domestic gasoline consumption has reduced the volume of clean products available for export, with Moeve's clean-product exports from Spain averaging around 65,000 b/d, approximately 32% below 2021 levels [9] - The export environment has become more competitive due to new capacities in the Middle East and India, impacting Mediterranean trade routes [10] Retail Integration and Strategic Positioning - The merger will create a network of around 3,100 service stations, enhancing captive demand and improving product placement synergies [11] - The long-term rationale for the merger includes adapting to stricter climate policies and transitioning towards renewable fuels, with both companies pursuing biofuels projects [12][13] Strategic Implications - The merger positions Galp and Moeve to focus on higher-return upstream growth while maintaining exposure to downstream cash flows [13] - The transaction represents a strategic challenge to Repsol, the regional leader, which has yet to articulate a comparable downstream strategy [13]

The liquefied natural gas supplier defeated Repsol in arbitration as disputes with BP and Shell continue. ...

Venture Global said on Wednesday an arbitration tribunal had ruled in its favour in a dispute with Spain's Repsol over the U.S. supplier's initial failure to deliver liquefied natural gas from its Cal... ...

Looking ahead, external assessments suggest a structured set of opportunities for restoring Venezuelan output, with Macquarie Group’s energy strategist, Walt Chancellor, in Houston, identifying four primary buckets of Venezuelan production potential. “The first is ‘excess declines’ of around 200,000 to 500,000 barrels per day [bpd] potentially attributable to causes that can be easily remedied with sanctions relief and a baseline of investment and de-bottlenecking,” he says, adding that he sees these opport ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Oil Services - **Focus**: Implications of the political situation in Venezuela on global oil services companies Core Insights and Arguments - **Venezuela's Oil Production Recovery**: - Production may increase slightly in the short term, potentially reaching several hundred thousand barrels per day over the next 2-3 years if a US-supported government is established and sanctions are lifted [2][10] - Historical peak production was approximately 3 million barrels per day in the mid-2000s, with Venezuela holding about 20% of global proven oil reserves [2][11] - **Investment Requirements**: - Any recovery in production will be gradual and necessitate substantial investment [2] - Companies like Chevron, ENI, and Repsol currently have operations in Venezuela, with Chevron being the only US oil major still active [17] - **OCTG Market Potential**: - Demand for Oil Country Tubular Goods (OCTG) in Venezuela could reach 140,000 to 240,000 tons by 2030, translating to a market size of $0.6 to $1 billion [4][30] - The current addressable OCTG market for Tenaris and Vallourec is estimated at 5.7 million tons and approximately $18 billion, indicating that the Venezuelan market could add 3-4% in volume and 3-5% in dollar terms [36] - **Tenaris and Vallourec's Position**: - Tenaris has a long-standing presence in Venezuela and supplies Chevron's OCTG needs, benefiting from logistical advantages due to local operations [3][27] - Vallourec, while currently absent from Venezuela, could supply the market from its Brazilian plant, leveraging a competitive cost base [28] - **US Oil Services Companies**: - Companies like SLB, Halliburton, and Weatherford International are positioned to benefit from increased activity in Venezuela [8][44] - SLB has indicated its ability to scale operations in Venezuela if activity increases, while Halliburton and Weatherford have historical ties and expertise that could be advantageous [8][45][46] Additional Important Insights - **Long-term Oil Price Implications**: - A recovery in Venezuelan production to 2 million barrels per day by 2030 could pose significant downside risks to long-term oil prices, potentially reducing Brent oil price forecasts by $4 per barrel [11] - Current estimates suggest that Brent prices could average $58 per barrel if production declines, and $54 per barrel if production increases [10] - **Technical Requirements for OCTG**: - The extraction of heavy crude from the Orinoco Oil Belt requires complex, high-performance OCTG solutions due to the challenging conditions [29] - The majority of Venezuela's proven reserves are high-sulfur and heavy crude, necessitating robust materials and testing protocols for well integrity [29] - **Rig Count and Well Drilling**: - The estimated rig count needed to support a production level of 2 million barrels per day by 2030 is between 40 to 50 active rigs, with an annual drilling of 480 to 600 new wells [31][32] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and potential implications for the oil services industry stemming from the evolving situation in Venezuela, highlighting both opportunities and risks for companies involved in this sector.

行业 原油日报 日期 2026 年 1 月 16 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | | ...