隆众资讯原油分析师吴燕向经济观察报表示，短期内本轮美伊 冲突带来的原油溢价大约在5美元/桶—6美元/桶，主要原因 在于霍尔木兹海峡作为重要的原油运输通道，运输能力受损。 未来油价走势的关键，在于霍尔木兹海峡的运输情况会受到多 大以及多长时间的影响。 作者：潘俊田 封图：图虫创意 3月2日早间，国际油价大幅高开，布伦特原油开盘暴涨近13%，约81美元/桶。截至发稿，布伦 特原油已回吐部分涨幅，约78美元/桶，上涨约7%。 隆众资讯原油分析师吴燕向经济观察报表示，短期内本轮美伊冲突带来的原油溢价大约在5美元/ 桶—6美元/桶，主要原因在于霍尔木兹海峡作为重要的原油运输通道，运输能力受损。未来油价 走势的关键，在于霍尔木兹海峡的运输情况会受到多大以及多长时间的影响。 报告指出，大约300万桶/日的原油可以绕道霍尔木兹海峡，可选地点包括阿联酋富查伊拉港、土 耳其杰伊汉港、沙特阿拉伯红海上的港口等。报告同时指出，如果冲突持续时间较长，市场很难找 到霍尔木兹海峡的替代方案。尤其是OPEC成员国的大部分闲置产能需依赖霍尔木兹海峡出口。 从中长期看，原油价格仍将取决于市场供需。2月以来，沙特阿拉伯等中东产油国已提前运出部分 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2603： 1.基本面：根据交易商和伦敦证交所集团(LSEG)航运数据，俄罗斯油轮正越来越多地将新加坡列为官方目的 地，这意味着出口流向正从印度转向中国，以及对西方制裁的担忧日益加剧；美国向途经霍尔木兹海峡的商 船发布最新指南。据美国交通部海事管理局发布的指导意见，该机构建议"悬挂美国国旗的商船尽可能远离 伊朗领海，并在被伊朗军队要求登船时口头拒绝——如果伊朗军队登船，船员不应强行抵抗"；中性 2.基差：2月9日，阿曼原油现货价为67.21美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为66.56美元/桶，基差31.55元/桶， 现货升水期货；偏多 3.库存：美国截至1月30日当周API原油库存减少1107.9万桶，预期减少25.6万桶；美国至1月30日当周EIA库存 减少345.5万桶，预期增加48.9万桶；库欣地区库存至1月30日当周减少74.3万桶，前值减少27.8万桶；截止 至2月9日，上海原油期货库存为346.4万桶，不变；偏多 4.盘面：20日均线偏上，价格在均线 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the oil processing industry [1]. Core Insights - International oil prices have significantly strengthened due to escalating geopolitical risks in Iran and adverse weather conditions affecting U.S. oil production. As of January 30, 2026, Brent and WTI prices were reported at $69.32 and $65.21 per barrel, respectively, marking increases of 6.53% and 6.78% from the previous week [2][9]. - The oil and petrochemical sector has shown strong performance, with the sector index rising by 7.95% as of January 30, 2026, compared to a slight increase of 0.08% in the broader market index [10]. - The report highlights a notable increase in the number of active offshore drilling platforms, with a total of 376 self-elevating platforms and 134 floating platforms as of January 26, 2026 [26]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - Brent crude futures settled at $69.32 per barrel, up $4.25 (+6.53%) from the previous week, while WTI crude futures rose to $65.21 per barrel, an increase of $4.14 (+6.78%) [23]. - The Urals crude price remained stable at $65.49 per barrel, while ESPO crude increased by $4.42 (+8.66%) to $55.46 per barrel [23]. Offshore Drilling Services - The global count of self-elevating drilling platforms remained at 376, while floating platforms increased by one to a total of 134 [26]. U.S. Oil Supply - U.S. crude oil production was reported at 13.696 million barrels per day, a decrease of 36,000 barrels from the previous week. The number of active drilling rigs remained stable at 411 [32]. - The U.S. fracking fleet decreased by 15 units to a total of 148 [32]. U.S. Oil Demand - U.S. refinery crude processing averaged 16.209 million barrels per day, down by 395,000 barrels from the previous week, with a refinery utilization rate of 90.90%, a decline of 2.4 percentage points [40]. U.S. Oil Inventory - Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 839 million barrels, a decrease of 1.78 million barrels (-0.21%) from the previous week. Strategic reserves increased by 515,000 barrels (+0.12%), while commercial inventories fell by 2.295 million barrels (-0.54%) [49]. Related Companies - Key companies in the sector include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The overall supply and demand of crude oil still tend to be in surplus, but recent trends are still affected by geopolitical factors between the US and Iran and weather conditions in Europe and the US. The medium - to long - term outlook is still bearish, but short - term attention should be paid to the pulsed bullish impact of geopolitics. It is recommended to hold long call option positions for protection, with the resistance level of the SC2603 contract at 450 - 460 yuan/barrel [8] Summary by Directory Supply - **Drilling Quantity**: As of December last year, the global active oil and gas rig count was 1,782, a decrease of 30 from the previous month and 82 from the same period last year. Among them, the number of US rigs was 546, a decrease of 3 from the previous month and 43 from the same period last year [27] - **OPEC and Saudi Arabia's Crude Oil Production**: In December, the total OPEC+ crude oil production was 42.831 million barrels per day, a decrease of 238,000 barrels per day from the previous month. OPEC's crude oil production was 28.564 million barrels per day, an increase of 105,000 barrels per day from the previous month. Saudi Arabia's crude oil production was 10.078 million barrels per day, an increase of 27,000 barrels per day from the previous month [8][31] - **US Crude Oil Production**: As of the week of January 16, US crude oil production was 13.732 million barrels per day, a decrease of 21,000 barrels per day from the previous week and an increase of 248,000 barrels per day from the same period last year. US shale oil production in December was 9.22 million barrels per day, accounting for about 66% of total crude oil production [47] - **China's Crude Oil Production and Imports**: In 2025, China's cumulative crude oil production was 216 million tons, a 2.1% decrease from the previous month and a 1.54% increase from the same period last year. Cumulative crude oil imports were 522 million tons, a 4.4% increase from the previous year [51] Demand - **Crude Oil Demand**: In 2025, the global crude oil demand was 104 million barrels per day, a 0.43% increase from the previous month and a 1.10% increase from the same period last year. China's apparent crude oil consumption in 2025 was 791 million tons, a 3.44% increase from the previous year [58] - **Refinery Utilization Rates**: As of the week of January 16, the US refinery utilization rate was 93.3%, a decrease of 2 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 7.4 percentage points from the same period last year. The US refineries will enter the spring maintenance period, and the utilization rate may gradually decline. China's refinery utilization rate was 71.42%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 1.75 percentage points from the same period last year [62] - **Refined Oil Production and Exports**: In 2025, China's cumulative gasoline production from January to December was 162.8 million tons, a 5.07% decrease from the previous year; cumulative gasoline exports were 8.0128 million tons, a 17.7% decrease from the previous year. Cumulative diesel production was 209.6 million tons, a 4.55% decrease from the previous year; cumulative diesel exports were 6.68 million tons, a 16.6% decrease from the previous year. Cumulative kerosene production was 61.6166 million tons, a 5.76% increase from the previous year; cumulative kerosene exports were 21.8231 million tons, a 14.61% increase from the previous year [70][76][80] - **Automobile and Truck Production**: In 2025, China's cumulative automobile production was 34.531 million, a 10.4% increase from the previous year. Among them, cumulative new energy vehicle production was 16.626 million, a 29% increase from the previous year. The new energy vehicle industry in China has developed rapidly since 2020, having a certain substitution effect on traditional oil product demand [85] Inventory - **OECD and Global In - Transit Crude Oil Inventory**: According to the OPEC monthly report in January, OECD's commercial oil inventory in November increased by 4 million barrels month - on - month (with crude oil increasing by 8.1 million barrels and refined oil decreasing by 4.1 million barrels), 77.6 million barrels higher than the same period last year and slightly 0.3 million barrels higher than the five - year average. The global in - transit crude oil inventory remained at a high level [91] - **US Crude Oil and Refined Oil Inventory**: As of the week of January 16, US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 3.602 million barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 1.478 million barrels. The EIA gasoline inventory increased by 5.977 million barrels, and distillate fuel oil inventory increased by 3.348 million barrels. Due to the weakening of refinery utilization rates and weak terminal consumption, refined oil inventories continued to accumulate [93][96] - **China's Crude Oil Inventory**: China's crude oil port inventory continued to decline, and the inventory was higher than the same period last year. The exchange warehouse receipt inventory remained stable at a low level [101] Market - **International and Domestic Crude Oil Prices**: Last week, international crude oil prices first rose and then fell, and the main contracts were at the lowest level in recent years during the same period. The domestic SC crude oil mainly followed the trend of international crude oil. The B - W spread weakened slightly last week and was higher than the same period last year. The SC - Oman spread rebounded and was lower than the same period last year [16][21][23]

在经历了震荡波动的一周后，油价尾盘小幅走高，交易员正权衡伊朗局势紧张程度与整体市场的积极情 绪。 布伦特原油价格在周四暴跌4.2%（创下6月以来最大单日跌幅）后，回升至每桶64美元上方。据报道， 以色列总理本雅明・内塔尼亚胡已请求美国总统唐纳德・特朗普推迟袭击伊朗的计划。此举降低了美国 针对伊朗境内暴力抗议活动迅速采取回应措施的可能性——这类回应原本可能导致伊朗石油生产或运输 出现中断。 不过，美国正加大其在中东地区的军事部署力度。据媒体援引军方消息人士的话报道，至少已有一艘航 空母舰正向该地区移动，未来数日乃至数周内，预计还有其他军事装备也将被调往此地。在地缘政治风 险加剧的时期，交易员以往常会在周末来临前平仓空头头寸。 布伦特原油价格在周四暴跌4.2%（创下6月以来最大单日跌幅）后，回升至每桶64美元上方。据报道， 以色列总理本雅明・内塔尼亚胡已请求美国总统唐纳德・特朗普推迟袭击伊朗的计划。此举降低了美国 针对伊朗境内暴力抗议活动迅速采取回应措施的可能性——这类回应原本可能导致伊朗石油生产或运输 出现中断。 不过，美国正加大其在中东地区的军事部署力度。据媒体援引军方消息人士的话报道，至少已有一艘航 空母舰 ...

行业 原油日报 日期 2026 年 1 月 16 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | | ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Crude Oil Daily [1] - Date: January 13, 2026 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - Geopolitical risks have eased, the US is gradually lifting sanctions on Venezuela and starting to sell Venezuelan crude oil, resulting in marginal bearishness on the supply side. Coupled with the inventory build - up pressure of nearly 3 million barrels per day in the crude oil market in Q1 2026, crude oil is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to the situation in Iran [7] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review | Variety | Opening Price ($/barrel) | Closing Price ($/barrel) | Highest Price ($/barrel) | Lowest Price ($/barrel) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (10,000 lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | WTI (main contract) | 58.19 | 58.62 | 59.57 | 57.46 | 1.7 | 27.71 | | Brent (main contract) | 62.6 | 63.02 | 63.92 | 61.83 | 1.66 | 45.85 | | SC (main contract, Yuan/barrel) | 431.7 | 437.5 | 440.1 | 429.8 | 2.75 | 8.66 | [6] Event - Trump met with the heads of 17 major oil companies at the White House. After the meeting, Trump said that oil companies would invest $100 billion in Venezuela to revitalize its oil industry. Oil companies have different attitudes. ExxonMobil is cautious about increasing investment, while Chevron expects to increase production by 120,000 barrels per day in 18 - 24 months, and Repsol expects to increase production by 100,000 barrels per day in two to three years [6] Group 5: Industry News - Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman: In addition to Switzerland as an intermediate channel, the communication channel between Iran and the US special envoy remains open [8] - US President Trump: He is in contact with Iranian opposition leaders and is studying very tough options against Iran. The military is also studying this matter [8] - US President Trump: Cuba has relied on a large amount of oil and funds from Venezuela for years, but this will no longer happen. He strongly advises Cuba to reach an agreement quickly [8] Group 6: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventory, EIA crude oil inventory, US crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption. The data sources are Bloomberg, EIA, and Wind [10][14][21][23]

行业 原油日报 日期 2026 年 1 月 9 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | | ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the reports [1][5] 2. Core Viewpoints - The crude oil 2602 contract is expected to be volatile in the short - and medium - term, and weak in the intraday. Overall, it is likely to run weakly, with oversupply in the supply - demand situation being the dominant factor [1] - Although geopolitical risks have increased during the New Year's holiday, the weak supply - demand situation in the crude oil market is the long - term logic for the decline in oil prices. It is expected that domestic crude oil futures prices on Thursday may maintain a volatile and weak trend [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Time - period and Viewpoint Summary - **Short - term**: The short - term view of crude oil 2602 is "volatility" [1] - **Medium - term**: The medium - term view of crude oil 2602 is "volatility" [1] - **Intraday**: The intraday view of crude oil 2602 is "weak", and the reference view is "weakly running" [1][5] 3.2 Price Movement and Driving Logic - The core logic for the weak trend of crude oil is the oversupply in the supply - demand situation [1] - During the New Year's holiday, geopolitical risks increased due to the US military operation in Venezuela and threats to other South American countries, which may be a factor for the post - holiday oil price increase. However, the long - term pressure on oil prices comes from the weak supply - demand situation in the crude oil market. The domestic crude oil futures maintained a volatile and weak trend on Wednesday night and are expected to continue this way on Thursday [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report Core View - The crude oil 2602 contract is expected to run weakly, with a short - term and medium - term outlook of oscillation and a weak intraday view. The supply - demand surplus dominates, leading to an oscillating and weak trend in crude oil [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Price and Market Outlook - The short - term view of crude oil 2602 is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is weak. It is expected to run weakly [1] - On Tuesday night, domestic crude oil futures maintained an oscillating and weak trend with a slight decline in price. It is expected that on Wednesday, the price of domestic crude oil futures may maintain an oscillating and weak trend [5] Driving Factors - During the New Year's Day holiday, geopolitical risks increased rapidly due to the US military operation in Venezuela and President Trump's threat to other South American countries, which may be an important geopolitical factor for post - holiday oil price increases [5] - The long - term and medium - term logic for the decline in oil prices is the weak supply - demand situation in the crude oil market. The concern about global supply surplus persists, causing a pessimistic sentiment among investors [5]