" 原本觉得俄乌冲突比较容易解决，事实上，这是最难解决的冲突。 "8 月 19 日，美国总统特朗普在 接受采访时表示。 前一天，特朗普与乌克兰总统泽连斯基在白宫举行双边会晤，一扫半年前双方激烈争吵的阴霾。随 后双方与欧洲及北约领导人展开多边会谈。 这两场会晤就乌克兰未来安全保障以及推动俄乌高层会晤等议题进行了讨论。 目前，泽连斯基与俄罗斯总统普京之间的会晤安排已步入筹备阶段。泽连斯基8月20日在会见记者 时说，双边或三边会晤可能在瑞士、奥地利等欧洲中立国或土耳其举行。 若进展顺利，美方拟进一步推动举行美俄乌三方会议。持续三年半的俄乌冲突，能否迎来一个走向 和平的关键窗口期？ 安全保障悬而未决 8月15日，特朗普与普京在阿拉斯加会晤，这是美俄领导人四年来的首次面对面会晤，也是特朗普 与普京自2019年以来的首次见面，同时也是近10年来俄总统首次踏上美国领土。 尽管长达两个半小时的会谈并未达成任何具体协议，但双方为接下来的俄乌外交突破奠定了基础。 8月18日，特朗普在白宫先后与泽连斯基和欧洲领导人举行会晤。 泽连斯基一改6个月前与特朗普争吵的强硬态度，身穿黑色衬衫和夹克，发言时十秒内连说四次"谢 谢"，显示其姿态 ...

Report Title - "South China Crude Oil Market Weekly Report - Oil Prices Hit New Low Since July, Awaiting New Drivers" [1] Report Date - August 11, 2025 [2] Core Viewpoints - This week, crude oil prices fell continuously, hitting a new low since July. The trading logic revolved around the weak fundamentals and the decline of risk premium. The fundamentals were mixed. Bullish factors included the decline in US crude oil and refined oil inventories according to EIA weekly data, Saudi Arabia's unexpected significant increase in official prices, and Trump's announcement of an additional 25% tariff on Indian imports starting from August 27, raising the total tax rate to 50%. Bearish factors were the high possibility of a summit between Trump, Zelensky, and Putin and the increasing likelihood of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The market reacted weakly to bullish factors, possibly due to the weakening support of peak - season demand. As the seasonal demand weakened, the risk of supply surplus increased, limiting the upside potential of oil prices and increasing the downside risk. There was a lack of substantial positive news in the short term, and attention should be paid to whether US sanctions against Russia would be implemented [2] Market Trends - Saudi Arabia raised the official selling price (OSP) of light crude oil for September. The OSP of Arabian light crude oil sold to Asia in September was at a premium of $3.20 per barrel over the Oman/Dubai average, up from a $2.20 premium in August. The OSP for the US was at a $4.2 - per - barrel premium, and for Northwest Europe, it was at a $3.35 - per - barrel premium [4] - The discount on Russian crude oil export prices widened. Due to the pressure from the US and the EU on Russian oil buyers, the demand was hit, and the price of Russia's main oil exports to India had a discount. State - owned Indian refineries were considering suspending imports of Russian oil, while private enterprises were still buying but at a slower pace. The price of crude oil in the Ural region was more than $5 per barrel cheaper than the North Sea crude oil price index, compared with almost zero difference two weeks ago [4] - Indian companies continued to import Russian oil, but the quantity might decline. An industry insider said that Indian companies would continue to import Russian oil as long as the deals were commercially beneficial [4] EIA Weekly Inventory - For the week ending August 1, US EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 3.029 million barrels, compared with an expected decrease of 0.591 million barrels and a previous increase of 7.698 million barrels. Strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 0.0235 million barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 0.0453 million barrels. Gasoline inventory decreased by 1.323 million barrels, and refined oil inventory decreased by 0.565 million barrels. Commercial crude oil imports were 5.962 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.174 million barrels per day from the previous week. Crude oil exports increased by 0.62 million barrels per day to 3.318 million barrels per day. Crude oil production decreased by 0.03 million barrels to 13.284 million barrels per day. The refinery utilization rate was 96.9%, higher than the expected 95.2% and the previous 95.4% [6] CME Volume and Open Interest Data - The trading volume of WTI crude oil futures was 851,451 contracts, a decrease of 96,463 contracts from the previous trading day. The open interest was 2,045,252 contracts, an increase of 2,569 contracts. The trading volume of Brent crude oil futures was 170,087 contracts, a decrease of 25,973 contracts, and the open interest was 186,677 contracts, an increase of 493 contracts. The trading volume of natural gas futures was 464,152 contracts, an increase of 72,474 contracts, and the open interest was 1,589,665 contracts, a decrease of 16,391 contracts [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - International oil prices have declined due to multiple negative factors, including tariff concerns and weak economic data from the US, leading to demand worries. Additionally, OPEC+ has agreed to increase production in September, raising expectations of supply surplus [2][8] - As of August 8, 2025, Brent and WTI oil prices were $66.59 and $63.88 per barrel, respectively, reflecting a decrease of 4.42% and 5.12% from the previous week [25][16] Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - Brent crude futures settled at $66.59 per barrel, down $3.08 (-4.42%) from the previous week. WTI crude futures settled at $63.88 per barrel, down $3.45 (-5.12%) [25][16] - The Urals crude price remained stable at $65.49 per barrel, while ESPO crude fell to $62.47 per barrel, down $4.68 (-6.97%) [25][16] Offshore Drilling Services - As of July 28, 2025, the number of global offshore self-elevating drilling platforms was 379, a decrease of 3 from the previous week. The number of floating drilling platforms remained at 133 [31][33] US Oil Supply - As of August 1, 2025, US crude oil production was 13.284 million barrels per day, a decrease of 30,000 barrels per day from the previous week. The number of active drilling rigs was 411, an increase of 1 rig [48][42] US Oil Demand - As of August 1, 2025, US refinery crude processing was 17.124 million barrels per day, an increase of 213,000 barrels per day. The refinery utilization rate was 96.90%, up 1.5 percentage points from the previous week [59][53] US Oil Inventory - As of August 1, 2025, total US crude oil inventory was 827 million barrels, a decrease of 2.794 million barrels (-0.34%). Strategic oil inventory increased by 235,000 barrels (+0.06%) [70][62]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Saudi Arabia raised the official selling price of its flagship Arab Light crude oil for September sales to Asia to a premium of $3.20 per barrel over the Oman/Dubai average, up $1 from August, citing tight supply and strong demand [1] - The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 3 million barrels to 423.7 million barrels in the week ending August 1st, due to an increase in crude oil exports [2] - Trump's envoy's meeting with Putin made "significant progress", but the possibility of further sanctions on Moscow's oil revenue was not ruled out, and Trump signed an executive order to impose an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods [3] - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, and the UAE will increase production by about 2.5 million barrels per day, accounting for about 2.4% of global demand [3] - Russian President Putin and former U.S. President Trump have reached an intention to meet, and the summit is likely to be held next week [3] - In the asphalt market, prices in North China and Shandong decreased by 10 - 70 yuan/ton, while prices in other regions remained stable. The asphalt price in Shandong and Hebei may still have a slight downward space [4] Summary by Related Content Crude Oil Market - **Saudi Price Adjustment**: On August 6th, Saudi Arabia raised the official selling price of its September - bound Arab Light crude oil to Asian customers to a $3.20 - per - barrel premium over Oman/Dubai crude, up $1 from August [1] - **U.S. Inventory Report**: As of August 1st, U.S. commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 3 million barrels to 423.7 million barrels, with exports increasing by 620,000 barrels per day to 3.3 million barrels per day [2] - **Political Uncertainty**: Trump's envoy's meeting with Putin had "significant progress", but further sanctions on Moscow's oil revenue were not excluded, and Trump imposed a 25% tariff on Indian goods [3] - **OPEC+ Production Increase**: OPEC+ agreed to increase September oil production by 547,000 barrels per day, and the UAE will increase production by about 2.5 million barrels per day [3] - **Russia - U.S. Summit**: Putin and Trump are likely to hold a summit next week [3] Asphalt Market - **Price Changes**: North China and Shandong's asphalt prices decreased by 10 - 70 yuan/ton, while other regions' prices were stable. The price in Shandong and Hebei may still decline slightly [4] - **Demand and Inventory**: In the northwest, demand was boosted by key projects; in the south, demand was delayed by rain and funds, and social inventory needed to be digested [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Oil prices continued to decline, approaching the lower limit of the trading range since July. The current fundamentals are mixed. Bullish factors include a decline in US crude oil and refined product inventories according to EIA weekly data, Saudi Arabia's unexpected significant increase in official prices, and Trump's announcement of an additional 25% tariff on imports from India starting August 27, raising the total tax rate to 50%. Bearish factors are the possibility of a meeting between the US, Russia, and Ukraine, increasing the likelihood of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The market's reaction to bullish factors is limited, possibly due to the weakening of peak - season demand support. As seasonal demand weakens, the risk of supply surplus intensifies, and time is bearish for crude oil, with limited upside potential and a need to watch for downside risks. There is a lack of substantial short - term positive news, and attention should be paid to whether US sanctions against Russia can be implemented after August 8 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Multi - and Short - Term Analysis - Bullish factors: Decline in US crude oil and refined product inventories according to EIA weekly data; Saudi Arabia's unexpected significant increase in official prices; Trump's announcement of an additional 25% tariff on imports from India starting August 27, raising the total tax rate to 50% [4]. - Bearish factors: A meeting between the US, Russia, and Ukraine, increasing the likelihood of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict [4]. 3.2. Market Dynamics - US EIA data for the week ending August 1: Crude oil inventory decreased by 3.029 million barrels (expected - 0.591 million barrels, previous value + 7.698 million barrels); strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 0.0235 million barrels (previous value + 0.0238 million barrels); Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 0.0453 million barrels (previous value + 0.069 million barrels); gasoline inventory decreased by 1.323 million barrels (expected - 0.406 million barrels, previous value - 2.724 million barrels); refined oil inventory decreased by 0.565 million barrels (expected + 0.775 million barrels, previous value + 3.635 million barrels). Commercial crude oil imports were 5.962 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.174 million barrels per day from the previous week. Crude oil exports increased by 0.62 million barrels per day to 3.318 million barrels per day. Crude oil production decreased by 0.03 million barrels to 13.284 million barrels per day. Refinery utilization rate was 96.9% (expected 95.2%, previous value 95.4%) [5]. - Saudi Arabia raised the official selling price (OSP) of September light crude oil. The OSP of Arabian light crude oil sold to Asia in September was at a premium of $3.20 per barrel over the Oman/Dubai average, compared with a premium of $2.20 per barrel in August. The OSP of Arabian light crude oil sold to the US in September was at a premium of $4.2 per barrel over the Oman/Dubai average, and the OSP of Arabian light crude oil sold to north - western Europe in September was at a premium of $3.35 per barrel over the Oman/Dubai average [5]. - The US White House stated that Trump signed an executive order to impose an additional 25% tariff on goods from India in response to India's continued purchase of Russian oil. The tax rate will take effect at 00:01 on the 21st day after the issuance of the executive order [5]. 3.3. Global Crude Oil Futures Prices and Spread Changes | | 2025 - 08 - 07 | 2025 - 08 - 06 | 2025 - 07 - 31 | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Brent Crude M + 2 | 67.43 | 66.89 | 72.53 | 0.54 | - 5.1 | | WTI Crude M + 2 | 63.94 | 63.41 | 68.2 | 0.53 | - 4.26 | | SC Crude M + 2 | 494.2 | 499.5 | 525.3 | - 5.3 | - 31.1 | | Dubai Crude M + 2 | 66.21 | 66.77 | 72.51 | - 0.56 | - 6.3 | | Oman Crude M + 2 | 69 | 69.18 | 75.07 | - 0.18 | - 6.07 | | Murban Crude M + 2 | 69.41 | 69.8 | 76 | - 0.39 | - 6.59 | | EFS Spread M + 2 | 0.68 | 0.87 | 0.73 | - 0.19 | - 0.05 | | Brent Calendar Spread (M + 2 - M + 3) | 0.62 | 0.67 | 0.72 | - 0.05 | - 0.1 | | Oman Calendar Spread (M + 2 - M - 3) | 1.53 | 0.67 | 1.94 | 0.86 | - 0.41 | | Dubai Calendar Spread (M + 1 - M + 2) | 0.93 | 0.88 | 1 | 0.05 | - 0.07 | | SC Calendar Spread (M + 1 - M + 2) | 4.7 | 5.8 | 5.4 | - 1.1 | - 0.7 | | SC - Dubai (M + 2) | 1.6424 | 3.2412 | 0.2382 | - 1.5988 | 1.4042 | | SC - Oman (M + 2) | - 1.0076 | 0.8512 | - 2.8418 | - 1.8588 | 1.8342 | [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, based on the individual product outlooks, most products are expected to be in an "oscillating" state, which implies a neutral stance on the overall energy and chemical industry in the short - term [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The chemical market is facing different external factors with inconsistent directions of contradictions, presenting an oscillating pattern. Coal prices are rising, increasing the cost of coal - based chemicals, while crude oil has been falling for four days, reducing the cost of oil - based chemicals. The industry itself and the macro - end also have different trends. It is advisable for investors to take a light - position in the hedging of oil - based and coal - based chemicals [2]. - The overall chemical industry will continue to oscillate and consolidate, and the trend is still unclear. The short - term trends of various chemical products are mainly oscillating, and attention should be paid to geopolitical situations, supply and demand changes, and cost factors [3]. 3. Summary by Product Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical expectations are fluctuating, and attention should be paid to Russian oil risks. - **Main Logic**: The US has imposed an additional 25% tariff on India for buying Russian oil. Although the US and Russia's statements on promoting the Russia - Ukraine peace talks are optimistic, the expectation of the US to impose additional secondary sanctions on Russia is still hard to disprove. EIA data shows that the US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 3.029 million barrels in the week of August 1, and the net import of crude oil decreased by 794,000 barrels per day. The single - week crude oil production decreased by 30,000 barrels per day, and the refinery utilization rate increased from 95.4% to 96.9%. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation, pay attention to the implementation of US sanctions against Russia [6]. Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: The asphalt futures price oscillates after reaching the support level. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will increase production in September, and the market may refocus on the negative impacts of tariffs and OPEC+ production increases. The current asphalt spot market is stronger in the north than in the south, and the sales pressure is increasing. The asphalt - fuel oil spread has declined but is still at a high level, driving the refinery's operating rate to return. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is over - valued, and the asphalt monthly spread is expected to decline with the increase of warehouse receipts [7]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: High - sulfur fuel oil oscillates following crude oil. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ will continue to increase production in September, and the supply of heavy oil is expected to increase. The tax on fuel oil imports in China has been raised, and the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil has decreased. The three driving forces supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are weakening. - **Outlook**: Overall, the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to increase and demand to decrease, and it will oscillate weakly [8]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures price oscillates following crude oil. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil has weakened following crude oil. Although the diesel cracking spread has increased, low - sulfur fuel oil is facing negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The domestic refined oil supply pressure may be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil. - **Outlook**: Low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by green fuel substitution and high - sulfur substitution, with limited demand space, but the current valuation is low, and it will fluctuate following crude oil [9]. Methanol - **Viewpoint**: The inland price is running strongly, and methanol oscillates. - **Main Logic**: On August 6, the methanol futures price rebounded slightly, driven by the coal end in the short term. The northwest methanol market continued to be strong, and the port inventory increased. The production profit of methanol is still relatively high, and the downstream olefins are under pressure due to the decline in oil prices. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation [19]. Urea - **Viewpoint**: After the export information is confirmed, the futures price has reached the top and is about to oscillate and consolidate. - **Main Logic**: The market sentiment was boosted by the high - price Indian tender and export news on August 5 and 6, but the downstream follow - up was cautious, and the actual trading volume was average. After the export information was basically confirmed, the market's positive sentiment faded. - **Outlook**: In the short term, it will oscillate and consolidate, and it is likely to decline weakly. Pay attention to whether there are more changes in the Indian tender before August 8 [19][20]. Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **Viewpoint**: The support from coal prices is increasing, and the expectation of inventory accumulation is narrowing. - **Main Logic**: Supported by coal prices and the improvement of market sentiment, the price of ethylene glycol rebounded from a low level. Overseas plant shutdowns have reduced the expected import volume in August, and the inventory accumulation amplitude has slightly narrowed. - **Outlook**: The price will oscillate within a range, and there is an expectation of an inventory inflection point [14][16]. PX - **Viewpoint**: The decline of PX is slowing down as the cost stops falling and the commodity sentiment strengthens. - **Main Logic**: International oil prices have stopped falling and rebounded, and the macro - atmosphere has continued to strengthen, pushing up the PX price. In terms of supply and demand, the change in PX is limited. Due to the low processing fee of PTA, some PTA plants have reduced their production, but the demand reduction is limited. - **Outlook**: Oscillation [10]. PTA - **Viewpoint**: Under low processing fees, unexpected maintenance has increased, and the commodity sentiment has slightly improved. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost has stopped falling, and the PTA futures price has strengthened following the cost. The basis has continued to weaken, and the spot processing fee has been continuously compressed. Some mainstream PTA manufacturers have reduced their production, and the downstream polyester filament sales have increased, but the supply - demand drive is still weak. - **Outlook**: Oscillation, pay attention to the implementation of major plant maintenance at the beginning of August [10]. Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: The futures market has boosted the spot market atmosphere, and the sales volume has slightly improved. - **Main Logic**: There are no significant changes in the fundamentals. Supported by the polymerization cost, the short - fiber price has been boosted, and the sales volume has slightly improved, but the terminal orders are average. - **Outlook**: The short - fiber processing fee will be weakly stable, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in the medium - to - long - term. The absolute price will fluctuate following the raw materials [16][17]. Bottle - Chip - **Viewpoint**: The polyester bottle - chip price is supported after the polymerization cost stops falling. - **Main Logic**: The upstream polyester cost has stopped falling and rebounded slightly, supporting the polyester bottle - chip price. The bottle - chip processing fee has been slightly repaired, but the subsequent profit expansion space is limited. - **Outlook**: The bottle - chip processing fee has support at the bottom, and the absolute price will fluctuate following the raw materials [17][18]. PP - **Viewpoint**: The maintenance rate has slightly decreased, and PP oscillates. - **Main Logic**: The coal end has slightly boosted in the short term, while the oil price has oscillated and declined. The supply side of PP is still in an incremental state, and the demand side is weak. The downstream plastic weaving and injection molding operating rates are lower than the same period in previous years. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation [23][24]. Propylene (PL) - **Viewpoint**: It mainly follows the fluctuations and oscillates in the short term. - **Main Logic**: The inventory of propylene enterprises is controllable, and the downstream factories follow up as needed. The short - term disk follows the fluctuations of PP and methanol, and the coal end has provided some support. - **Outlook**: Short - term oscillation [24]. Plastic (LLDPE) - **Viewpoint**: Affected differently by oil and coal, the plastic oscillates. - **Main Logic**: The oil price has oscillated and weakened in the short term, while the macro - end has slightly improved, and the coal end has some positive news. The plastic's own fundamentals are still under pressure, with high supply and weak demand. - **Outlook**: The LLDPE 09 contract will oscillate in the short term [22]. Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: There is insufficient driving force, and pure benzene oscillates weakly. - **Main Logic**: The macro - sentiment has declined after the Politburo meeting, but there is still some support due to the military parade expectation. The oil price has fluctuated. Recently, there have been concentrated investments in pure benzene upstream and downstream plants, which have a great impact on the fundamentals. - **Outlook**: In August, the supply of pure benzene will increase, but with new downstream production, the balance sheet is expected to have a slight inventory reduction. The import arrival volume has decreased, and the port inventory may be reduced in stages, slightly boosting the price [11][12][13]. Styrene - **Viewpoint**: The inventory has been continuously accumulating, and styrene oscillates weakly. - **Main Logic**: The short - term replenishment of styrene downstream has decreased, and the support has weakened. The supply of styrene itself has increased, and the port inventory has continued to accumulate. The new home appliance production schedule data is average, and the market is worried about the fundamentals. - **Outlook**: Recently, due to weather reasons, the port arrival volume has decreased, and the downward driving force has weakened. The cost of pure benzene is stable or slightly strong, but the driving force for styrene is limited. Overall, the styrene price may oscillate and decline slightly [13][14]. PVC - **Viewpoint**: There is a strong expectation but weak reality, and PVC mainly oscillates. - **Main Logic**: At the macro - level, the inspection of coking coal over - production has increased the expectation of supply disturbances. At the micro - level, the PVC fundamentals are under pressure, with an expected increase in cost. The upstream production will increase, the downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the export has improved. - **Outlook**: The futures price will oscillate under the situation of strong expectation and weak reality [27]. Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: The spot price is falling rapidly, and the futures price oscillates weakly. - **Main Logic**: At the macro - level, the inspection of coking coal over - production has increased the expectation of supply disturbances. In terms of fundamentals, the demand for caustic soda from alumina production is increasing marginally, but there is no significant change in non - aluminum production. The inventory of caustic soda in the downstream is not high, and the 50% caustic soda inventory accumulation pressure is increasing. - **Outlook**: The futures price is under downward pressure, and pay attention to whether upstream producers will reduce production due to low profits, the performance of downstream peak seasons, and policy expectations [28][29].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the fundamentals of crude oil 2509, including factors such as production, inventory, and market sentiment. It notes that although the previous concerns have slightly decreased, potential concerns continue to provide strong support for oil prices. Short - term oil prices are expected to continue to oscillate at high levels, with short - term trading in the 526 - 536 range and long - term long positions held with a light position [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - For crude oil 2509, the fundamentals are neutral as the US May crude production reached a record high; the basis shows a spot premium over futures, which is bullish; inventory data is bearish as API and EIA inventories increased; the 20 - day moving average is flat with price above, neutral;主力持仓 is bearish as WTI and Brent long positions decreased; short - term oil prices are expected to oscillate between 526 - 536, and long - term long positions can be held lightly [3]. 2. Recent News - Trump will maintain a 10% global minimum tariff, and imports from countries with trade surpluses with the US will face 15% or higher tariffs. Tariffs on various countries are determined, and market reaction in Asian morning trading was muted [5]. - US May crude production reached a record high of 1349 million barrels per day, an increase of 2.4 million barrels per day from April. OPEC members have also accelerated production increases since May, leading to concerns about supply surplus [5]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: potential US secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports and increasing summer demand [6]. - Bearish factors: continuous production increases by OPEC+ for three months and tense trade relations between the US and other economies [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - Futures prices of various crude oil types (Brent, WTI, SC, Oman) increased, with Oman crude rising 3.89% [7]. - Spot prices of various crude oil types (UK Brent, WTI, Oman, Shengli, Dubai) also increased, with UK Brent Dtd rising 2.88% [9]. - API inventory increased by 153.9 million barrels in the week ending July 25, while the expected decrease was 250 million barrels [3][10]. - EIA inventory increased by 769.8 million barrels in the week ending July 25, while the expected decrease was 128.8 million barrels [3][13]. 5. Position Data - WTI crude net long positions decreased to 153331 as of July 22, a decrease of 9096 [15]. - Brent crude net long positions also decreased as of July 22 [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views - The current crude oil market is in a narrow - range shock adjustment phase, with the center of fluctuation moving down. The support comes from the demand side, but the incremental demand space is limited due to the seasonal decline. The market's operating logic remains unchanged, still in the adjustment stage after the sharp fluctuations caused by geopolitical events. The market is supported by peak - season demand, and recent trade agreements between the US and multiple countries and economies have boosted the macro - sentiment [4]. - The crude oil market lacks clear guidance from news recently. Next week is a macro super - week with multiple important meetings, including China - US economic and trade negotiations from July 27th to 30th, the Politburo meeting at the end of July, the Fed's interest - rate meeting at 3:00 am on July 31st. Also, the US tariff deadline is on August 1st, and the OPEC + 8 - country meeting will be held on August 3rd. Attention should be paid to the possibility of positive news from the China - US economic and trade negotiations and the reaction of the crude oil market after OPEC +'s production increase in September [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Trends - The Trump administration approved Chevron to resume oil extraction in Venezuela. The details of the agreement are unclear, and the move has received different reactions. Chevron will comply with relevant laws and regulations [4]. - South Korea and Japan plan to strengthen cooperation on oil supply security due to the Israel - Iran conflict, discussing issues such as oil reserve policies [4]. - Syria issued a tender for 500,000 barrels of heavy crude oil on July 24th. The US has gradually lifted sanctions on Syria, but it's unclear about the source of this oil sale, whether it marks Syria's return to the international oil market, and potential buyers [6]. - There are many differences between the US and Japan on the details of the tariff agreement. The 15% "reciprocal" tariff may take effect on August 1st, and the 550 - billion - dollar investment commitment from Japan to the US has many uncertainties [6]. EIA Weekly Inventory - For the week ending July 18th in the US, EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 3.169 million barrels (expected - 1.565 million barrels, previous value - 3.859 million barrels); strategic petroleum reserve inventory decreased by 200,000 barrels (previous value - 300,000 barrels); Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 455,000 barrels (previous value + 213,000 barrels); gasoline inventory decreased by 1.738 million barrels (expected - 908,000 barrels, previous value + 3.399 million barrels); refined oil inventory increased by 2.931 million barrels (expected - 1.135 million barrels, previous value + 4.173 million barrels) [7]. - US crude oil production decreased by 102,000 barrels to 13.273 million barrels per day. Commercial crude oil imports were 5.976 million barrels per day, a decrease of 403,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week. Crude oil exports increased by 337,000 barrels per day to 3.855 million barrels per day. The refinery utilization rate was 95.5% (expected 93.4%, previous value 93.9%) [7].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - Oil prices have experienced a slight decline, with Brent and WTI prices at $67.66 and $65.16 per barrel respectively as of July 25, 2025 [2][8] - The oil market is facing cautious funding due to geopolitical tensions and limited supply impacts from EU sanctions on Russia [2][8] - The oil and petrochemical sector has shown a positive performance, with the sector rising by 2.58% compared to the 1.69% increase in the CSI 300 index [9] Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - Brent crude futures settled at $67.66 per barrel, down $1.62 (-2.34%) from the previous week, while WTI crude futures settled at $65.16 per barrel, down $0.89 (-1.35%) [26] - The price of Russian Urals crude remained stable at $65.49 per barrel, while ESPO crude rose by $0.79 (+1.22%) to $65.75 per barrel [26] Offshore Drilling Services - As of July 21, 2025, the number of global offshore self-elevating drilling platforms was 381, a decrease of 2 from the previous week [32] Oil Supply - As of July 18, 2025, U.S. crude oil production was 13.273 million barrels per day, down by 102,000 barrels per day from the previous week [48] - The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. decreased to 415, down by 7 rigs [48] Oil Demand - U.S. refinery crude oil processing increased to 16.936 million barrels per day, up by 87,000 barrels per day, with a refinery utilization rate of 95.50%, up by 1.6 percentage points [59] Oil Inventory - As of July 18, 2025, total U.S. crude oil inventories were 821 million barrels, a decrease of 3.369 million barrels (-0.41%) [69] - Strategic oil inventories were 403 million barrels, down by 200,000 barrels (-0.05%) [69] Related Companies - Key companies in the sector include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Overnight, Trump said he would not consider firing the Fed Chairman for the time being, easing market concerns, boosting risk appetite, and causing oil prices to rebound. Meanwhile, the decline in EIA crude oil inventories also supported oil prices. However, the accumulation of gasoline and refined oil in the downstream and the decline in gasoline production have worried the market about the lack of optimism in summer peak demand, limiting the upside of oil prices. Short - term oil prices are expected to continue to fluctuate. Short - term trading is expected to be in the range of 513 - 523, and long - term investors should wait and see [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - **Fundamentals**: Trump said he doesn't plan to fire the Fed Chairman, EU is ready to impose tariffs on $836 billion of US goods if trade talks fail, and gasoline demand decline during the summer driving season is disappointing. The overall assessment is neutral [3]. - **Basis**: On July 16, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $70.22 per barrel, and the basis was 8.60 yuan per barrel, with the spot at par with the futures, a neutral situation [3]. - **Inventory**: US API crude oil inventory increased by 83.9 barrels in the week ending July 11, contrary to the expected decrease of 163.7 barrels; EIA inventory decreased by 385.9 barrels in the week ending July 11, more than the expected decrease of 55.2 barrels; Cushing area inventory increased by 21.3 barrels in the week ending July 11. As of July 16, Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained at 451.7 barrels. The overall situation is bullish [3]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is near the moving average, a bearish signal [3]. - **Main Position**: As of July 8, the main position of WTI crude oil was long, with a decrease in long positions; the main position of Brent crude oil was long, with an increase in long positions. The overall assessment is neutral [3]. - **Futures Quotes**: The settlement prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, SC crude oil, and Oman crude oil decreased by - 0.50, - 0.46, - 0.80, and - 2.24 respectively, with decline rates of - 0.72%, - 0.69%, - 0.15%, and - 3.09% [7]. - **Spot Quotes**: The prices of UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman crude oil, Shengli crude oil, and Dubai crude oil decreased by - 0.54, - 0.46, - 1.87, - 1.89, and - 2.28 respectively, with decline rates of - 0.75%, - 0.69%, - 2.59%, - 2.73%, and - 3.15% [9]. 2. Recent News - Trump's potential replacement of the Fed Chairman caused market fluctuations, but he later said there was no current plan. Market participants have different views on this event. The EU is ready to impose tariffs on $836 billion of US goods if trade talks fail. Trump also mentioned possible tariff rates for Japan and a potential trade agreement with India [5]. 3. Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: The intensification of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: OPEC+ has increased production for three consecutive months, trade relations between the US and other economies remain tense, and there is a cease - fire between Iran and Israel [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - **API Inventory Trend**: From May 2 to July 11, API inventory showed fluctuations, with an increase of 83.9 barrels in the week ending July 11 [10]. - **EIA Inventory Trend**: From May 9 to July 11, EIA inventory also fluctuated, with a decrease of 385.9 barrels in the week ending July 11 [14]. 5. Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position**: From May 6 to July 8, the net long position of WTI crude oil funds showed fluctuations, with a decrease of 25,319 positions on July 8 compared to July 1 [16]. - **Brent Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position**: From May 6 to July 8, the net long position of Brent crude oil funds also fluctuated, with an increase of 55,630 positions on July 8 compared to July 1 [19].