盘整待命 有些周的外汇行情如同棋局谜题，战术布局清晰，接下来三步棋几乎早有定数。但本周并非如此。当前宏 观环境如同抛硬币——市场罗盘针难以稳定指向，美元脉搏的加速或停滞取决于华盛顿最终披露的数据， 而英伟达财报已成为风险系数的指路明灯，其引力将东京至多伦多的风险资产尽数纳入轨道。 若非农就业数据符合预期（新增5万个岗位，失业率维持4.3%），美元将小幅走强——因为任何未达明显 疲软的信号都将维持12月政策按兵不动。今日稍晚杰斐逊的讲话或为市场增添些许鹰派色彩，但不会引发 剧烈波动。 大宗商品领域，原油终于松了口气。随着俄罗斯新罗西斯克港结束上周罢工恢复运营，油轮悄然重返装载 位置，此前逐渐渗透布伦特原油的地缘政治与供应冲击溢价瞬间蒸发。WTI重回59美元/桶的走势说明一 切：宏观逻辑是供过于求且需求疲软，炼油厂停产只是延缓了必然趋势。此前徘徊在供应紧缩边缘的市 场，如今若非欧佩克+重拾纪律，恐将淹没于过剩原油之中。 黄金则陷入自身盘整格局——经历两日回调后徘徊在4100美元/盎司下方。当降息预期降温，黄金便被推回 观望区。但结构性需求依然存在：央行购金需求、发达市场财政恶化，以及年内55%涨幅形成的巨大支 撑 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - International oil prices experienced slight fluctuations, with Brent crude oil price at $64.39 per barrel (up 1.19%) and WTI at $59.39 per barrel (down 0.75%) as of November 14, 2025 [2][19] - The oil and petrochemical sector outperformed the market, with a 2.29% increase compared to a 1.08% decline in the CSI 300 index [10] - The oil and gas extraction sector has seen a significant increase of 210.63% since 2022, indicating strong growth potential [12] Summary by Sections Oil Price Review - Brent crude oil futures settled at $64.39 per barrel, increasing by $0.76 per barrel, while WTI crude oil futures settled at $59.39 per barrel, decreasing by $0.45 per barrel [2][19] Offshore Drilling Services - As of November 10, 2025, the number of global offshore self-elevating drilling platforms was 370, an increase of 1 from the previous week, while floating drilling platforms decreased to 128 [21] Oil Supply - As of November 7, 2025, U.S. crude oil production was 13.862 million barrels per day, an increase of 211,000 barrels per day from the previous week [35] - The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. was 417, with an increase of 3 rigs [35] Oil Demand - U.S. refinery crude oil processing volume was 15.973 million barrels per day, an increase of 717,000 barrels per day, with a refinery utilization rate of 89.40% [47] Oil Inventory - As of November 7, 2025, total U.S. crude oil inventory was 838 million barrels, an increase of 7.211 million barrels [55]

Report Overview - Report Title: Crude Oil Daily Report - Report Date: November 12, 2025 - Report Industry: Energy and Chemicals Core Viewpoint - The short - term market lacks drivers and is expected to move sideways, while the medium - term oil prices still face continuous oversupply pressure. It is recommended to try short positions on rebounds [6][7] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Quotes**: WTI's opening price was $59.87, closing at $60.05, with a high of $60.48, a low of $59.41, a daily increase of 0.50%, and a trading volume of 19.61 million hands. Brent's opening price was $63.8, closing at $63.94, with a high of $64.34, a low of $63.32, a daily increase of 0.49%, and a trading volume of 27.31 million hands. SC's opening price was 460.5 yuan/barrel, closing at 458.8 yuan/barrel, with a high of 462.1 yuan/barrel, a low of 457 yuan/barrel, a daily decrease of 0.30%, and a trading volume of 7.15 million hands [6] - **News**: The US government shutdown issue is expected to be resolved, supporting the recovery of market risk appetite. The overseas assets of Lukoil are continuously affected by US sanctions, and the West Qurna - 2 oilfield project is under force majeure and may withdraw from operation later [6] - **Supply and Demand**: OPEC+ has decided to temporarily stop increasing production in the first quarter of next year, which is marginally positive for the supply side. However, the inventory accumulation rate in the first quarter of next year may reach 3 million barrels per day, and the current policies alone are difficult to reverse the oversupply [6] - **Operation Suggestion**: Try short positions on rebounds [7] 2. Industry News - Saudi Arabia and Iraq have allocated their entire December crude oil supplies to Indian refiners - Two Indian state - owned enterprises have bought 5 million barrels of oil from the US and the Middle East - Iraq's SOMO has cancelled three crude oil cargoes originally scheduled to be shipped by Lukoil in November - Lukoil has declared force majeure on the West Qurna - 2 project in Iraq and warned that it may withdraw from the project if the situation persists [8] 3. Data Overview - Multiple data charts are presented, including global high - frequency crude oil inventory, EIA crude oil inventory, US crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption [9][13][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Overnight crude oil fluctuated higher, with increasing geopolitical concerns. The US Navy's largest aircraft carrier arrived near Latin America, and Russia's energy exports are expected to decline significantly at the end of the month. India, one of the largest buyers, has reduced its share, which supports crude oil. Short - term oil prices are expected to continue to fluctuate slightly stronger. SC2512 is expected to operate in the 465 - 475 range, and long - term investors are advised to wait and see [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: The Republican - controlled House of Representatives is expected to vote on a compromise plan to end the 42 - day government shutdown. Although the US imposed new sanctions on two major Russian oil companies, Russian oil shipments from ports remained stable in early November, but India has reduced its Russian crude oil purchases in December [3]. - **Basis**: On November 11, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $65.37/barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $64.33/barrel. The basis was 29.51 yuan/barrel, with the spot price higher than the futures price [3]. - **Inventory**: As of the week ending October 31, US API crude oil inventory increased by 6.521 million barrels, EIA inventory increased by 5.202 million barrels (expected to increase by 0.603 million barrels), and Cushing area inventory increased by 30 barrels. As of November 10, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory was 3.464 million barrels, a decrease of 0.6 million barrels [3]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average was flat, and the price was above the average [3]. - **Main Position**: As of September 23, the main position of WTI crude oil was long, with an increase in long positions. As of November 4, the main position of Brent crude oil was long, with a decrease in long positions [3]. 3.2 Recent News - **India's Crude Oil Purchase**: India's five major core refiners have not placed any orders for Russian crude oil for next month. This change occurred after Trump doubled the tariffs on all Indian imports to 50% in August and sanctioned two major Russian oil producers last month [5]. - **Ukrainian Attack on Russian Refinery**: Ukraine claimed to have launched a second attack on a key Russian oil refinery in the Volga region this month. The Saratov refinery, which can process about 140,000 barrels of crude oil per day, has been the target of multiple Ukrainian drone attacks this year [5]. - **Nigeria's Oil and Gas Production**: With the approval of 43 oil field development plans this year, Nigeria is expected to add 1.7 billion barrels of oil production and 770 billion cubic feet of natural gas production, involving an investment of about $20 billion [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: There are optimistic signals from China - US trade negotiations, the US - Russia talks are cancelled and sanctions against Russia increase, and OPEC+ will suspend production increases in the first quarter of next year [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: The situation in the Middle East has eased, there is a risk of the US government shutdown, and OPEC+ is considering continuing to increase production [6]. - **Market Drivers**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts have intensified, while there is a risk of increased supply in the medium - to - long term [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement price of Brent crude oil increased from $64.06 to $65.16, an increase of 1.72%; WTI crude oil increased from $60.13 to $61.04, an increase of 1.51%; SC crude oil decreased from 460.2 to 459.2, a decrease of 0.22%; Oman crude oil increased from $64.63 to $64.99, an increase of 0.56% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The price of UK Brent Dtd increased from $62.60 to $64.39, an increase of 2.86%; WTI increased from $60.13 to $61.04, an increase of 1.51%; Oman crude oil decreased from $65.64 to $65.37, a decrease of 0.41%; Shengli crude oil decreased from $60.87 to $60.62, a decrease of 0.41%; Dubai crude oil decreased from $65.62 to $65.46, a decrease of 0.24% [9]. - **Inventory Trends**: API and EIA inventory data from August to October are provided, showing the changes in inventory levels over time [10][12]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position**: Data from July 22 to September 23 shows the changes in the net long position and its increase or decrease [16]. - **Brent Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position**: Data from August 26 to October 28 shows the changes in the net long position and its increase or decrease [19].

I. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. II. Core Viewpoints - The oil price has been fluctuating slightly recently, and the market is waiting for more macro - event results. There is hope for the US government to reopen, which has alleviated some market concerns. Russia increased its crude oil production in October but remained below the OPEC+ limit. Hungary claimed to have obtained an indefinite US sanction exemption for using Russian oil and gas, which may weaken the support of Russian oil supply cuts on oil prices. The short - term outlook for crude oil is to wait and see, with the SC2512 contract expected to operate in the range of 455 - 465, and a long - term wait - and - see approach is recommended [3]. - The short - term market is driven by strengthened geopolitical conflicts, while in the medium - to - long - term, there is a risk of increased supply. The risk points include the breakdown of OPEC+ internal unity and the escalation of war risks [6]. III. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - For the crude oil 2512 contract, the fundamentals are neutral considering the US government shutdown negotiation progress, Hungary's sanction exemption, and Russia's production increase. The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish. The inventory situation is bearish as US API and EIA inventories increased significantly in the week ending October 31. The 20 - day moving average is flat with the price above it, indicating a neutral situation. The main positions in WTI and Brent crude oil show different trends, overall being neutral [3]. 2. Recent News - Hungary claimed to have obtained an indefinite US sanction exemption for using Russian oil and gas, contradicting the White House's statement of a one - year exemption. US Senate Majority Leader John Thune said a potential agreement to end the government shutdown is "being gradually reached", and a test vote may be held soon. The number of US oil and gas rigs increased by 2 in the week ending November 7 [5]. 3. Long - Short Concerns - **Likely Bullish Factors**: Optimistic signals from China - US trade negotiations, cancellation of US - Russia talks leading to increased sanctions on Russia, and OPEC+ suspending production increases in the first quarter of next year [6]. - **Likely Bearish Factors**: Easing of the Middle East situation, the risk of a US government shutdown, and OPEC+ considering continued production increases [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: On November 7, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $65.37 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $64.67 per barrel. The basis was 36.43 yuan per barrel, with the spot at a premium to the futures [3]. - **Inventory Data**: US API crude oil inventory increased by 6.521 million barrels in the week ending October 31, and EIA inventory increased by 5.202 million barrels (expected to increase by 0.603 million barrels). Cushing area inventory increased by 30 barrels in the week ending October 31. As of November 7, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory was 3.47 million barrels, unchanged [3]. - **Futures and Spot Market Changes**: In the futures market, the settlement prices of Brent crude, WTI crude, SC crude, and Oman crude all decreased. In the spot market, the prices of various types of crude oil also declined, with different decline rates [7][9]. 5. Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of September 23, the main position was long, and the number of long positions increased [3]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of November 4, the main position was long, and the number of long positions decreased [3]. - **Fund Net Long Positions**: The net long positions of WTI and Brent crude oil funds showed different trends at different times from July to October [16][19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report The current crude oil market shows a pattern of weak supply and demand. The risk premium brought by geopolitical conflicts on the supply side is limited, and speculative funds are continuously withdrawing from long positions in crude oil. On the demand side, it is suppressed by weak refined oil consumption and refinery maintenance, and the deepening of the near - month discount of SC confirms the spot pressure. In the short term, the price will fluctuate weakly, and in the medium term, attention should be paid to the geopolitical risk premium and the results of the OPEC+ meeting in November and the winter heating demand in the Northern Hemisphere [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 Changes in Crude Oil Futures Market Data - On October 17, 2025, the price of the SC crude oil main contract closed at 435 yuan/barrel, down 8.8 yuan (a decline of 1.98%) from the previous trading day. WTI and Brent crude oil futures prices remained stable, closing at 56.95 dollars/barrel and 61.02 dollars/barrel respectively. The SC - Brent spread narrowed significantly to 0.02 dollars/barrel, and the SC - WTI spread also narrowed to 4.09 dollars/barrel. The Brent - WTI spread remained unchanged at 4.07 dollars/barrel. The near - month discount of SC deepened, and the spread between consecutive contracts 1 - 3 widened to - 4.8 yuan/barrel [2]. 3.1.2 Positions and Trading Volume - As of the week ending October 14, Brent crude oil speculative net long positions decreased by 37,794 lots to 109,606 lots, and diesel net long positions were cut by 26,325 lots. Domestic SC crude oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 5.211 million barrels, and low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts decreased by 3,000 tons [3]. 3.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes 3.2.1 Supply Side - Ukraine's attacks on Russian refineries and gas processing plants, as well as the destruction of the Crimean oil depot, may weaken Russia's crude oil export and refined oil supply capabilities. There is no new development in OPEC+ production policy, but the sharp reduction in Brent speculative net long positions shows that the market's trust in OPEC+ to maintain production cuts has declined [4]. 3.2.2 Demand Side - The significant reduction in diesel speculative long positions and the high level of domestic fuel oil warehouse receipts reflect weak global industrial activities and shipping fuel demand. The expansion of the near - month discount of SC may be related to the weakening of immediate procurement demand due to seasonal maintenance of domestic refineries. The US strategic petroleum reserve release plan was not mentioned, and there is no sign of recovery in EIA apparent demand [5]. 3.2.3 Inventory Side - SC crude oil warehouse receipts remained at a high level of 5.211 million barrels, indicating that the pressure on domestic delivery storage capacity has not been relieved. The decrease in low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts may suggest a marginal improvement in ship fuel demand in the Asia - Pacific region, but the absolute value is still at a low level. OECD commercial crude oil inventories are affected by geopolitical conflicts, and the overall inventory reduction speed may be lower than expected [6]. 3.3 Price Trend Judgment - In the short term, the price will fluctuate weakly, and the SC main contract may oscillate in the range of 435 - 445 yuan. Macroeconomic factors such as the Fed's interest - rate hike expectations and global economic slowdown pressure will still suppress the upside space of oil prices. In the medium term, attention should be paid to whether the OPEC+ meeting in November will extend production cuts and the realization of winter heating demand in the Northern Hemisphere [8]. 3.4 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring 3.4.1 Crude Oil - Futures prices: SC decreased by 1.98%, WTI increased by 0.53%, and Brent increased by 0.52%. Spot prices of most crude oil types decreased. Spreads such as SC - Brent and SC - WTI narrowed. Other assets such as the US dollar index, S&P 500, and DAX index also had corresponding changes. US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 0.84%, and the US refinery weekly operating rate decreased by 7.25% [10]. 3.4.2 Fuel Oil - Futures prices of FU and LU decreased, while NYMEX fuel oil increased. Most spot and paper - cargo prices of fuel oil decreased or remained unchanged. The Singapore and Chinese high - low sulfur spreads changed, and the Singapore fuel oil inventory increased by 5.89% [11]. 3.5 Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation 3.5.1 Supply - On October 19, the Ukrainian military attacked a refinery in Russia's Samara region and a gas processing plant in the Orenburg region [12]. 3.5.2 Demand - As of the week ending October 14, Brent crude oil and diesel speculators significantly reduced their net long positions [14]. 3.5.3 Inventory - On October 17, the medium - sulfur crude oil futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 5,211,000 barrels, low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts decreased by 3,000 tons to 4,960 tons, and fuel oil futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 44,960 tons [15]. 3.5.4 Market Information - As of 2:30 closing, the prices of Shanghai gold, Shanghai silver, and SC crude oil main contracts had corresponding fluctuations. The Ukrainian special operations forces claimed to have attacked the Russian oil depot in Crimea [16]. 3.6 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, the production of US crude oil, the number of oil rigs in the US and Canada, the operating rate of US refineries, and the inventory of US commercial crude oil, etc. [17][19][24]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current crude oil market is dominated by bearish factors, with no substantial positive support. The balance of the long - short game on the trading floor is tilting towards the bearish side. In the short - term, the macro - logic has become the core driving variable, overshadowing geopolitical factors. In the medium - to long - term, the market pricing anchor returns to the fundamentals, where a bearish pattern of supply and demand is expected to continue, characterized by a "double - bearish supply - demand" structure. The large - scale weak trend of the crude oil market remains unchanged, and the release of downside risks takes precedence over short - term rebound opportunities [1]. 3. Summary by Section Trading Strategies - **Single - side trading**: It is recommended to wait and see for now and go short on rallies [3]. - **Arbitrage**: The month - spread is expected to be weak [3]. - **Options trading**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [3]. Crude Oil Month - spread Tracking - Proximal month - spreads: The Brent crude oil month - spread (01 - 03) was 0.35 on October 17, 2025, down 47.76% week - on - week and 60.23% month - on - month. The WTI crude oil month - spread (01 - 03) was 0.61, down 3.17% week - on - week and 16.44% month - on - month. The Dubai crude oil month - spread (01 - 03) was 2.274, up 99.47% week - on - week and down 19.22% month - on - month. The SC crude oil month - spread (01 - 03) was - 7.6, down 522% week - on - week and 149.03% month - on - month [4]. - Distal month - spreads: The Brent crude oil month - spread (01 - 10) was - 0.24, down 157.14% week - on - week and 113.79% month - on - month. The WTI crude oil month - spread (01 - 10) was 0.01, down 97.4% week - on - week and 99.37% month - on - month. The SC crude oil month - spread (01 - 10) was - 7.6, down 522% week - on - week and 149.03% month - on - month. The Dubai crude oil month - spread (01 - 06) was 0.06, down 85.00% week - on - week and 97.94% month - on - month [4]. Crude Oil Domestic - Foreign Arbitrage - Arbitrage indicators: On October 17, 2025, Brent M + 2 was $60.47 per barrel, down 2.91% week - on - week and 10.4% month - on - month. SC M + 3 was 446.00 yuan per barrel, down 5.35% week - on - week and 6.4% month - on - month. The SC theoretical landed profit was - 32.35 yuan per barrel, up 3.7% week - on - week and down 3.3% month - on - month [5]. - Spread indicators: The SC - Brent continuous 1 spread was $0.76 per barrel, down 70.04% week - on - week and 48.65% month - on - month. The SC - WTI continuous 1 spread was $4.32 per barrel, down 32.24% week - on - week and 17.61% month - on - month. The SC - Dubai continuous 1 spread was $0.72 per barrel, down 76.79% week - on - week and up 45.2% month - on - month [5]. Logic Combing - **Geopolitical factors**: Geopolitical factors are the core variable affecting short - term crude oil fluctuations but cannot reverse the general trend. After the Gaza cease - fire, geopolitical support weakened, and the latest news about the Trump administration's action in Venezuela reignited geopolitical concerns, causing a short - term rebound in crude oil prices. However, compared with before the Gaza cease - fire, the supporting effect of geopolitical factors has significantly decreased, only serving as a short - term disturbing factor [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The core logic of the crude oil market is still dominated by fundamentals, with the balance clearly tilting towards the bearish side. There is no substantial positive support, and the market shows a combination of supply - side pressure and demand - side weakness. As the center of crude oil price fluctuations moves down, the fundamentals have exerted a new price suppression on the trading floor. Attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the $60 support level for Brent crude oil [7]. - **Macro and market sentiment**: Macro - level emotional disturbances have further strengthened the weakness of crude oil. The market's "potential risk - aversion demand" persists, which directly exerts emotional pressure on risk assets such as crude oil. The performance of the commodity market represented by crude oil and copper is under pressure, showing a divergence from the trends of the US stock market and gold [9]. Related News - **US EIA inventory data**: For the week ending October 10, US EIA crude oil inventory increased by 3524000 barrels, strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 80000 barrels, Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 703000 barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 267000 barrels, and refined oil inventory decreased by 4529000 barrels. Crude oil production increased by 7000 barrels per day to 13636000 barrels per day, commercial crude oil imports decreased by 878000 barrels per day to 5255000 barrels per day, and crude oil exports increased by 876000 barrels per day to 4466000 barrels per day. The refinery utilization rate was 85.7% [10]. - **India's strategic petroleum reserve expansion**: India's Strategic Petroleum Reserve Limited has launched the second - phase expansion of oil caverns. Contracts have been awarded to build a 2.5 - million - ton underground oil storage facility in Padur, Karnataka. The new facilities will be established on a public - private partnership basis using the DBFOT model [11]. Global Crude Oil Price and Spread Changes - On October 17, 2025, Brent crude oil M + 2 was $60.71 per barrel, down $0.35 from the previous day and $2.02 from the previous week. WTI crude oil M + 2 was $56.62 per barrel, down $0.37 from the previous day and $1.86 from the previous week. SC crude oil M + 2 was 439.6 yuan per barrel, down 6 yuan from the previous day and 28.9 yuan from the previous week [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term geopolitical conflict has weakened, and there is a risk of increased supply in the medium and long term. OPEC+ is steadily increasing production, the Middle East situation is stabilizing, the demand side is under continuous pressure, and short - term oil prices will continue to operate weakly. Short - term oil prices will operate in the range of 448 - 458, and long - term investors should wait and see [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: OPEC+ data shows Russia's September oil production increased to 932,1000 barrels per day, 148,000 barrels more than August. OPEC+ aims to increase production by over 2.7 million barrels per day this year, about 2.5% of global oil demand. Trump is willing to lift sanctions on Iran when it is ready to negotiate. The US federal government shutdown has affected the national economy. The overall situation is neutral [3]. - **Basis**: On October 13, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $64.25 per barrel, and Qatar Marine crude oil was $62.91 per barrel. The basis was 26.66 yuan per barrel, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [3]. - **Inventory**: The US API crude oil inventory for the week ending October 3 increased by 2.78 million barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 2.25 million barrels. The EIA inventory for the same period increased by 3.715 million barrels, also exceeding the expected increase of 1.885 million barrels. The Cushing area inventory decreased by 763,000 barrels. As of October 13, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 5.401 million barrels, which is bearish [3]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average, which is bearish [3]. - **Main Position**: As of September 23, the long positions of WTI crude oil main contracts increased. As of October 7, the long positions of Brent crude oil main contracts decreased, which is bearish [3]. - **Expectation**: The overnight market sentiment eased. OPEC+ is steadily increasing production, the Middle East situation is stabilizing, and geopolitical concerns are weakening. The demand side is under pressure. Short - term oil prices will continue to operate weakly, with a short - term range of 448 - 458 and long - term waiting and seeing [3]. 3.2 Recent News - **Peace Summit**: Trump called on leaders at the Sharm El - Sheikh summit to turn the US - led Israel - Hamas cease - fire into lasting peace. He invited leaders to join a "peace committee" to replace Hamas in governing Gaza. Netanyahu declined to attend [5]. - **US Government Shutdown**: The US federal government shutdown has entered its 13th day, affecting the national economy. The Senate will vote on a temporary appropriation bill on the evening of the 14th [5]. - **OPEC Report**: OPEC predicts that global oil demand will increase by 1.3 million barrels per day this year and 1.4 million barrels per day in 2026. OPEC+ will continue its production increase plan. In September, OPEC's total crude oil production increased by 524,000 barrels per day, and OPEC+ member countries' total production increased by 630,000 barrels per day [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: The threat of the Russia - Ukraine conflict to refineries and oil fields; Trump's tariff threat has eased [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: The Middle East situation has eased; there is a risk of the US government shutdown; OPEC+ is considering further production increases [6]. - **Market Driver**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts have weakened, and there is a risk of increased supply in the medium and long term [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Quotes**: The settlement price of Brent crude oil increased from $62.73 to $63.32, up 0.94%. WTI crude oil increased from $58.90 to $59.49, up 1.00%. SC crude oil decreased from 466.2 to 451.5, down 3.15%. Oman crude oil decreased from $65.23 to $63.90, down 2.04% [7]. - **Spot Quotes**: The settlement price of UK Brent Dtd decreased from $65.05 to $64.35, down 1.08%. WTI crude oil increased from $58.90 to $59.49, up 1.00%. Oman crude oil decreased from $66.95 to $65.60, down 2.02%. Shengli crude oil decreased from $63.53 to $62.33, down 1.89%. Dubai crude oil decreased from $66.65 to $65.05, down 2.40% [9]. - **Inventory Data**: API inventory for the week ending October 3 increased by 2.78 million barrels. EIA inventory for the same period increased by 3.715 million barrels [3][10][14]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position**: As of September 23, the net long position was 102,958, an increase of 4,249 [17]. - **Brent Crude Oil Fund Net Long Position**: As of October 7, the net long position was 147,400, a decrease of 61,713 [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the crude oil industry is bearish [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - OPEC+ continues to increase production, demand enters the off - season, geopolitical tensions ease, supply and demand maintain a bearish performance. Trump's tariff threat on China will cause short - term oil prices to continue to show a weak and volatile trend [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply (Medium - Long Term)**: EIA, OPEC, and IEA all show an increase in global or regional crude oil production. EIA predicts that the global crude oil and related liquid production in 2025 will be 10,553 million barrels per day, an increase of 234 million barrels per day compared to 2024 [3]. - **Demand (Medium - Long Term)**: Different institutions have different views on demand. EIA, OPEC, and IEA have either increased or maintained their forecasts for global crude oil and related liquid demand in 2025, with an overall increase compared to 2024 [3]. - **Inventory (Short Term)**: In the week ending October 3, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 3.715 million barrels, while the Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 763,000 barrels. Gasoline and distillate inventories also changed [3]. - **Industrial Policy (Medium - Long Term)**: OPEC+ eight countries agreed to increase the daily crude oil production by 137,000 barrels in November, and the IEA pointed out that the crude oil market may shift from a tight balance to a slight surplus in the future [3]. - **Geopolitical (Short Term)**: The cease - fire agreement between Israel and Hamas took effect, and a Russian refinery was attacked, which is expected to take about a month to resume operations [3]. - **Macro - finance (Short Term)**: Trump announced a 100% tariff on Chinese goods exported to the US, and the market generally expects the Fed to cut interest rates at the October meeting [3]. - **Investment View**: Bearish. Short - term oil prices will be weak and volatile [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Both unilateral and arbitrage trading should be on the sidelines [3]. 3.2 Main Weekly Data Change Review - **Prices**: SC crude oil, Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and other major oil product prices all declined this week, with declines ranging from 2.62% to 4.04% [5]. - **Inventory**: US + European + Singapore oil product inventories, Chinese oil product inventories, and other data have changed to varying degrees. For example, US gasoline commercial inventory decreased by 4.66% [5]. - **Refinery Operating Rate**: The operating rates of Chinese and US refineries have increased, while the operating rate of Japanese refineries has decreased [5]. - **Crude Oil Production**: US crude oil production decreased by 0.76% [5]. 3.3 Futures Market Data - **Market Review**: This week, oil prices showed a weak decline. Factors such as the easing of tensions in the Middle East, the increase in US crude oil inventories, and Trump's tariff threat have led to a bearish sentiment in the market [9]. - **Month - spread & Internal - external Spread**: The month - spread weakened, and the internal - external spread declined [10]. - **Forward Curve**: The far - month is moving towards a contango structure [22]. - **Crack Spread**: The crack spreads of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel all declined [30][40]. 3.4 Crude Oil Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Production** - **OPEC**: In August 2025, OPEC's crude oil production increased compared to July [59]. - **Non - OPEC**: The production of non - OPEC countries also increased [61]. - **US**: As of the week ending October 3, US domestic crude oil production increased to 13.629 million barrels per day [84]. - **Inventory** - **US**: US commercial inventory increased, and Cushing inventory decreased [85]. - **Northwest Europe and Singapore**: Northwest European crude oil inventory increased, and Singapore fuel oil inventory decreased [94]. - **China**: Some Chinese oil product inventories and port inventories have changed [104]. - **Demand** - **US**: Gasoline implicit demand rebounded, and refinery operating rate increased slightly [111]. - **China**: The refinery capacity utilization rate decreased slightly [121]. - **China's Refinery Profit**: The gross profit of major refineries and the crack spreads of gasoline and diesel declined [129]. - **Macro - finance**: The Fed cut interest rates, and the US dollar index rebounded [142]. - **CFTC Position**: The net short position of WTI crude oil speculative trading decreased [151].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the oil processing industry [1]. Core Insights - International oil prices have decreased as of October 10, 2025, with Brent and WTI prices at $62.73 and $58.90 per barrel, respectively, reflecting a decline of 2.79% and 3.25% from the previous week [2][20]. - The report highlights concerns over supply surplus due to OPEC's planned production increase and the resumption of oil exports from the Kurdish region, alongside geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [2][9]. - The oil and petrochemical sector has shown resilience, with a 2.99% increase in the sector's performance compared to a 0.51% decline in the broader market (CSI 300) [10][13]. Oil Price Review - As of October 10, 2025, Brent crude futures settled at $62.73 per barrel, down $1.80 (-2.79%) from the previous week, while WTI crude futures settled at $58.90 per barrel, down $1.98 (-3.25%) [2][20]. - The report notes that the Urals crude price remained stable at $65.49 per barrel, while ESPO crude increased by $0.53 (+0.88%) to $60.43 per barrel [2][20]. Offshore Drilling Services - The number of global offshore self-elevating drilling rigs was 371, a decrease of 1 from the previous week, while floating drilling rigs increased by 3 to a total of 132 [24][33]. U.S. Oil Supply - U.S. crude oil production reached 13.629 million barrels per day, an increase of 124,000 barrels from the previous week [46]. - The number of active drilling rigs in the U.S. decreased by 4 to 418, and the number of fracturing fleets also decreased by 4 to 175 [46]. U.S. Oil Demand - U.S. refinery crude processing increased to 16.297 million barrels per day, up 129,000 barrels from the previous week, with a refinery utilization rate of 92.40%, up 1.0 percentage points [56]. - The report indicates that U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories have decreased, suggesting a rise in oil demand [2][9]. U.S. Oil Inventory - As of October 3, 2025, total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 827 million barrels, an increase of 4 million barrels (+0.49%) from the previous week [65]. - Strategic oil reserves were at 407 million barrels, up 285,000 barrels (+0.07%), while commercial crude oil inventories rose by 3.715 million barrels (+0.89%) to 420 million barrels [65].