来源：市场资讯 （来源：牛透社） AI 时代中国 SaaS 的"大清算"：告别浅层工具，向深层商业护城河重构。 文｜崔强 每年开春，坐下来梳理行业的脉络，写下点什么，似乎已经成了崔牛会和大家之间的一种默契。从最初呼吁摒弃 to C 免费思维的《醒醒吧！中国 SaaS》，到疫情后在极度内卷中打气的《加油吧！中国 SaaS》，再到资本退潮后，呼吁大家放下身段、回归商业本质的《盈利吧！中国 SaaS》。 这几篇文章，像是一个时代的切片，记录了我们在泥泞中跋涉的脚印。 但站在此刻——2026 年的春天，我下笔时却感到了一丝彻骨的寒意，同时又夹杂着隐秘的兴奋。过去，我们的焦虑来自于"同行太卷"、"客户不付费"或 是"资本不投了"。但今天，悬在所有 To B 创业者头顶的那把达摩克利斯之剑，终于狠狠地劈了下来。这不仅是一场技术的迭代，更是一场对"旧商业模 式"的大清算。 01 华尔街的"末日论"，拆了护城河 前段时间，崔牛会的几个创始人微信群里因为一件事炸了锅。起因是华尔街的一场恐慌，以及一篇在朋友圈被疯转的长文。 有个做垂直 SaaS 的老板大半夜给我发微信说："这算是咱们 SaaS 行业的末日吗？看了直冒冷汗。" 导 ...

ServiceTitan, Inc. (NASDAQ:TTAN) is one of the 12 Best Beaten Down Technology Stocks to Buy According to Wall Street Analysts. Wall Street Positive on ServiceTitan (TTAN)'s Fundamentals Ahead of its upcoming growth phase, ServiceTitan, Inc. (NASDAQ:TTAN) is attracting investor attention as bullish sentiment intensifies. As of February 18, 2026, more than 80% of covering analysts are bullish on the stock, indicating a 105.25% upside with a consensus price target of $130.50. The analysts’ activity reflects ...

Sometimes, the market offers opportunities to buy great stocks at a discount. That's happening now.What goes up can go down. We've seen that adage come true with quite a few stocks in recent months. But can what comes down also go back up? Absolutely, at least in some cases.Some of the sell-offs appear to be overdone. Here are three growth stocks down 30% (or more) to buy right now. 1. DoorDashLike millions of people around the world, you're probably already familiar with DoorDash (DASH +0.04%). The company ...

Toast Inc. (NYSE:TOST) is one of the best new tech stocks to invest in now. On February 12, Toast reported its 2025 earnings report, which was highlighted by a 33% increase in recurring gross profit and an expanded adjusted EBITDA margin of 34%. The company added more than 30,000 net locations to its platform, ending the year with a total of 164,000 locations and surpassing $2 billion in ARR. In Q4 alone, the company’s revenue totaled $1.6 billion, which was a 22.05% improvement year-over-year. Toast suc ...

Group 1 - ServiceTitan Incorporated (NASDAQ:TTAN) is recognized as one of the 12 oversold software stocks to invest in, with a recent upgrade from Morgan Stanley from Equal Weight to Overweight, raising the price target from $125 to $131, indicating a potential upside of 109% [1] - Analyst Josh Baer noted improvements in valuation and growth execution, leading to stronger confidence in the company's performance and strategy, making it Morgan Stanley's top pick in the sector, replacing Toast (TOST) [2] - Goldman Sachs analyst Adam Hotchkiss initiated coverage on ServiceTitan with a Neutral rating and a price target of $117, highlighting the company's strong position in the under-digitized trades market, which presents significant expansion opportunities [2] Group 2 - ServiceTitan operates cloud-based software platforms that integrate various business functions, including advertising, contracting, invoicing, payment processing, reporting, and recruitment, through its platforms such as ServiceTitan, FieldRoutes, Aspire, and Convex [3] - The company serves various industries, particularly focusing on HVAC businesses, plumbing, irrigation, water treatment, painting, pest control, roofing, and other related solutions [3]

Core Insights - Toast reported solid fourth-quarter results, with a significant rebound in share price following an initial sell-off after earnings release [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Total Q4 revenue increased by 22% to $1.63 billion, with subscription revenue rising by 28% to $256 million and financial technology revenue growing by 22% [2] - Annual recurring revenue (ARR) jumped by 26% to $2 billion, driven by a 2-basis-point increase in payment processing take rate to 48 basis points [3] - Earnings per share (EPS) rose from $0.05 a year ago to $0.16, while adjusted EBITDA soared 47% from $111 million to $163 million [4] Group 2: Future Guidance - For 2026, Toast forecasts subscription services and fintech gross profit to be between $2.27 billion and $2.30 billion, indicating 20% to 22% growth, with adjusted EBITDA expected to be between $775 million and $795 million [4] - For Q1, the company projects subscription services and fintech gross profit of $505 million to $515 million, equating to 22%-24% growth, with adjusted EBITDA anticipated in the range of $160 million to $170 million [5] Group 3: Market Position and Growth Opportunities - Toast added approximately 8,000 new net restaurants in the quarter, a 22% year-over-year increase, totaling around 164,000 locations, with notable traction in international markets and food and beverage retailers [2] - The company sees opportunities for growth beyond its core small U.S. restaurant customer base and is embracing AI tools as a future growth driver [8]

Core Insights - Maplebear Inc. (NASDAQ:CART) is recognized as one of the top 12 mid-cap AI stocks favored by hedge funds, indicating strong investor interest in the company [1] - The company reported Q4 earnings, achieving revenue of $992 million, which exceeded Wall Street estimates by $18 million, although the EPS of $0.3 fell short of expectations of $0.52 [1] - Following the earnings announcement, Maplebear's shares increased by over 13% [1] Partnership and Business Expansion - On February 10, Maplebear entered a strategic partnership with Toast (NYSE:TOST) to enhance its presence in the U.S. restaurant and retail sectors [2] - The partnership will enable Toast's retail customers to link their in-store inventory with the Instacart marketplace, creating new sales opportunities and improving online reach [2] - This collaboration will also bolster Maplebear's B2B same-day delivery platform, allowing restaurants to order essential items with delivery within an hour [3] Future Plans and Market Outlook - A pilot launch of the partnership is scheduled for early this year, with a nationwide rollout expected by 2026 [3] - Benchmark has lowered its price target for Maplebear from $60 to $53 while maintaining a Buy rating, reflecting a positive outlook despite the adjustment [3]

Core Viewpoint - Toast Inc. (NYSE: TOST) is considered a promising low-cost stock, with recent price target adjustments reflecting a cautious yet optimistic outlook for the company and the broader FinTech sector [1][2][3]. Group 1: Analyst Ratings and Price Targets - Truist lowered the price target on Toast to $42 from $43 while maintaining a Buy rating, indicating confidence in the company's potential despite a challenging year-over-year comparison for Q4 2025 earnings [1][2]. - Evercore ISI upgraded Toast to Outperform from In Line with a price target of $40, citing a significant decline in its EV/EBITDA multiple by 44% since August, which suggests the stock is undervalued [3]. Group 2: Market Outlook and Company Position - The firm anticipates solid quarterly results for Toast but warns that difficult year-over-year comparisons may limit volume-driven performance [2]. - Looking ahead to 2026, Truist remains optimistic about the sector's recovery, although some management teams may provide conservative guidance to reset market expectations [2]. - Field checks support a positive long-term thesis for Toast, confirming its strong competitive position and inherent operating leverage [3]. Group 3: Company Overview - Toast Inc. operates a cloud-based digital technology platform specifically designed for the restaurant industry, with a presence in the US, Ireland, India, and other international markets [4].

Group 1: Partnership Announcement - Toast and Instacart have formed a strategic partnership to address emergency supply needs in restaurants, integrating delivery capabilities with restaurant management software [4] - The partnership allows operators to quickly order and receive essential items like pantry ingredients and cleaning supplies, often within an hour during business hours [4][5] - This initiative highlights the importance of technology vendor integrations in solving operational challenges that operators may not have recognized [5] Group 2: Inventory Management Innovations - NomadGo has launched an early access program for its Inventory Reasoning Engine, an AI-driven tool aimed at improving restaurant supply chain management [6] - The new tool helps operators predict inventory needs, optimize ordering, and reduce waste by analyzing real-time data [6][7] - This development is part of a broader trend in the food tech industry, where operators are increasingly adopting automated solutions to address inefficiencies [7]

Core Insights - Toast reported strong growth in Q4 2025, with SaaS ARR and subscription revenue each increasing by 28% year-over-year, and a SaaS net retention rate of 109% driven by upsell and location expansion [1][3][4] Financial Performance - Adjusted EBITDA for 2025 was $633 million, with free cash flow of $608 million, and GAAP operating income rose to $292 million from $16 million the previous year [3] - Recurring gross profit streams increased by 28% in Q4, with total monetization reaching 98 basis points, up 5 basis points from the previous year [2][3] - Payments ARR grew by 24% and fintech gross profit increased by 25% in Q4, with GPV at $51 billion, up 22% year-over-year [7] Growth and Expansion - The company added approximately 30,000 net locations in 2025, ending the year with 164,000 locations and an ARR of over $2 billion [3][6] - Toast's strategic priorities for 2026 include gaining market share in core U.S. SMB and mid-market restaurant businesses, expanding into new markets, and increasing customer adoption of its platform [10][11] AI and Product Innovation - Toast highlighted the rapid adoption of its AI-driven tool, Toast IQ, which has been used by over half of its locations, generating over 1 million queries [6][14] - The company plans to launch a drive-thru product in 2026 and expand its retail capabilities through partnerships, including with Instacart [11][13] 2026 Outlook - For 2026, Toast expects recurring gross profit growth of 20% to 22% and adjusted EBITDA between $775 million and $795 million, despite anticipated cost pressures from tariffs and memory chip prices [5][16] - The company guided for Q1 2026 total fintech and subscription gross profit growth of 22% to 24% year-over-year [17] Capital Allocation - Toast has repurchased approximately 8 million shares for $235 million since initiating its buyback authorization, with an additional $500 million increase to the share repurchase authorization approved [18]