Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports that several Macau gaming stocks are set to announce their Q4 2025 earnings, with investors expected to focus on profit trends amid concerns over additional spending for the November National Games and intense competition [1] Industry Summary - The firm anticipates a quarterly and year-on-year increase in industry EBITDA by 4% and 13% respectively, compared to a quarterly and year-on-year rise in total gaming revenue of 6% and 14% [1] - The increase in operating expenses and the shift of gaming revenue towards the lower-margin VIP segment are noted as contributing factors [1] Company-Specific Insights - Galaxy Entertainment (00027) is expected to see its EBITDA rise by 28% quarter-on-quarter to $550 million, driven by a higher VIP win rate [1] - MGM China (02282) is projected to have an EBITDA increase of 8% quarter-on-quarter to $328 million, attributed to a robust recovery in gaming revenue [1] - Sands China (01928) is forecasted to experience a 4% quarter-on-quarter EBITDA increase to $628 million, as retail revenue growth is offset by higher operating expenses and promotional costs [1] Future Outlook - For 2026, the overall gaming revenue is expected to increase by 8% year-on-year, with EBITDA rising by 10%, leading to industry EBITDA and recurring free cash flow reaching $9.1 billion and $6.4 billion respectively, nearing pre-COVID levels [1] - The firm believes that the current industry valuations remain attractive and reiterates a "buy" rating for Galaxy Entertainment, MGM China, and Sands China [1]

Core Viewpoint - UBS reports that due to calendar effects, the average daily gaming revenue in the past week was approximately MOP 693 million, lower than the MOP 800 million in the first four days of the month, indicating a solid average daily revenue of MOP 732 million for the month to date, representing a year-on-year increase of about 24% and a month-on-month increase of about 9% [1] Summary by Sections Gaming Revenue Performance - The average daily gaming revenue for the month to date is approximately MOP 732 million, which is a year-on-year increase of about 24% and a month-on-month increase of about 9% [1] - The average daily gaming revenue in the past week was approximately MOP 693 million, lower than the MOP 800 million in the first four days of the month [1] - The seasonal performance from 2015 to 2019 showed a month-on-month growth of about 2%, indicating that the current performance is better than historical trends [1] Business Segment Analysis - The mass market gaming revenue daily run rate increased by 8% to 10% month-on-month [1] - The VIP room turnover increased by 6% to 8% month-on-month, with a win rate of 2.7% to 2.9%, compared to a win rate below 3% in December [1] Market Expectations - The market expects an average daily gaming revenue of approximately MOP 677 million for January, which represents a year-on-year growth of about 15% [1] - To meet this expectation, the average daily run rate for the remaining 20 days of January needs to reach approximately MOP 647 million [1] Valuation Metrics - The sector is currently trading at 8.8 times the estimated enterprise value/EBITDA for 2026, which is 0.6 standard deviations below its two-year average [1] - UBS prefers Galaxy Entertainment (00027) and Wynn Macau (01128) as top picks in this sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - The gaming stocks are under pressure, with significant declines observed in major companies such as New World Development, Sands China, Wynn Macau, and MGM China, following the release of Macau's gaming revenue data for December 2025 [1] Group 1: Market Performance - New World Development (00200) fell by 3.31% to HKD 4.09 [1] - Sands China (01928) decreased by 3.16% to HKD 19 [1] - Wynn Macau (01128) dropped by 2.5% to HKD 5.84 [1] - MGM China (02282) declined by 1.84% to HKD 12.28 [1] Group 2: Revenue Insights - Macau's gross gaming revenue for December 2025 was MOP 20.89 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.8% [1] - The total gross gaming revenue for the first 12 months of 2025 reached MOP 247.404 billion, up 9.1% year-on-year [1] - Factors driving the revenue performance included the continued rollout of high-end property projects and increased visitor numbers due to various entertainment activities and promotional plans [1] Group 3: Future Projections - CICC forecasts that total gaming revenue for January 2026 will range from MOP 20.2 billion to MOP 21.7 billion, with daily gaming revenue expected to be between MOP 650 million and MOP 700 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10% to 19% [1] - However, compared to January 2019, the revenue is projected to decline by 13% to 19% [1]

Group 1 - The gaming stocks are under pressure, with New World Development down 3.31% to HKD 4.09, Sands China down 3.16% to HKD 19, Wynn Macau down 2.5% to HKD 5.84, and MGM China down 1.84% to HKD 12.28 [1] - The Macao Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau reported that the gross gaming revenue for December 2025 was MOP 20.89 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.8% [1] - For the first 12 months of 2025, the total gross gaming revenue in Macao reached MOP 247.404 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.1% [1] Group 2 - CICC expects the total gaming revenue for January 2026 to be between MOP 20.2 billion and MOP 21.7 billion, with daily gaming revenue projected to be between MOP 650 million and MOP 700 million, representing a year-on-year growth of 10% to 19%, but a decline of 13% to 19% compared to January 2019 [1] - The performance of total gaming revenue in December was driven by factors such as the continued rollout of high-end property projects and various entertainment activities that boosted visitor growth, although low VIP win rates have negatively impacted overall revenue [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a general decline in gaming stocks, with notable drops in companies such as Galaxy Entertainment, Melco International Development, MGM China, and Sands China [1] - The Macau Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau reported that the gross gaming revenue for December 2025 is projected to be 20.89 billion MOP, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 14.8% [1] - For the first 12 months of 2025, the cumulative gross gaming revenue in Macau reached 247.404 billion MOP, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.1% [1] Group 2 - Citigroup's research report indicates that the gaming revenue for December 2025 is estimated at 20.888 billion MOP, averaging approximately 674 million MOP per day, which is a 15% year-on-year increase and about 91% of the levels seen in December 2019 [1] - The reported figures are approximately 5% lower than Citigroup's forecast and about 3% below market expectations, attributed mainly to unusually low win rates in VIP rooms, likely below 3% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that Macau's gaming revenue in December last year was 20.9 billion MOP, approximately 2.61 billion USD, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.8%, but a quarterly decline of 1%, which was below market expectations [1] - In the fourth quarter, Macau's gaming revenue reached 66.1 billion MOP, about 8.26 billion USD, with a year-on-year growth of 15% and a quarterly increase of 5.6% [1] - The report forecasts that Macau's total gaming revenue for 2025 will be 247 billion MOP, around 31 billion USD, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9% and reaching 85% of the 2019 levels [1] Group 2 - The report highlights that the mass market revenue has already exceeded 120% of the 2019 levels [1] - The enterprise value to EBITDA ratio for Macau gaming stocks is currently at 8.5 times, compared to the 15-year average of 12.8 times, indicating that the sector remains attractive [1] - The report expresses a preference for Galaxy Entertainment (00027) and Sands China (01928), while downgrading MGM China (02282) to "in line with the market" and maintaining a sell rating on SJM Holdings (00880) [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley reports that Macau's gaming revenue in December last year was 20.9 billion MOP, approximately 2.61 billion USD, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.8%, but a quarterly decline of 1%, which was below market expectations [1] Group 1: Revenue Performance - Macau's gaming revenue for Q4 reached 66.1 billion MOP, about 8.26 billion USD, showing a year-on-year growth of 15% and a quarterly increase of 5.6% [1] - The EBITDA for Q4 is expected to grow by over 10% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Future Projections - The total gaming revenue for Macau in 2025 is projected to be 247 billion MOP, around 31 billion USD, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9% and reaching 85% of the 2019 levels [1] - The mass market revenue has already surpassed 120% of the 2019 levels [1] Group 3: Valuation and Stock Preferences - The enterprise value to EBITDA ratio for Macau gaming stocks is currently at 8.5 times, compared to the 15-year average of 12.8 times, indicating attractiveness [1] - Morgan Stanley prefers Galaxy Entertainment (00027) and Sands China (01928) [1] - MGM China (02282) has been downgraded to "in line with the market," while SJM Holdings (00880) is maintained at a sell rating [1] - MGM China significantly underperformed in December but may have short-term rebound opportunities [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that Macau's gaming revenue in December increased by 14.8% year-on-year to 20.89 billion MOP, aligning with the bank's forecast but falling short of market expectations by 3% [1] - The average daily gaming revenue for the last ten days of December was 624 million MOP, compared to 698 million MOP for the first 21 days of the month [1] - Despite potential negative sentiment from investors regarding the data, the bank remains optimistic that the continued appreciation of the RMB against the USD will support gaming revenue performance [1] Group 2 - For January, the bank forecasts a year-on-year increase in Macau's gaming revenue of 18% to 21.48 billion MOP, exceeding market expectations by 3% [1] - The bank maintains its preferred stocks as Galaxy Entertainment (00027) and MGM China (02282) [1] - The bank projects that Macau's total gaming revenue will grow by 5% year-on-year by 2026, slightly below the market expectation of 5.5%, implying an average daily gaming revenue of 709 million MOP [1]

Core Insights - The Macau Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau reported that the gross gaming revenue for December 2025 reached MOP 20.89 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.8% [1] - For the first 12 months of 2025, the total gross gaming revenue in Macau amounted to MOP 247.404 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.1% [1] Monthly Revenue Summary - January 2025: MOP 18.254 billion, down 5.6% from January 2024; cumulative revenue MOP 18.254 billion, down 5.6% [2] - February 2025: MOP 19.744 billion, up 6.8% from February 2024; cumulative revenue MOP 37.998 billion, up 0.5% [2] - March 2025: MOP 19.659 billion, up 0.8% from March 2024; cumulative revenue MOP 57.657 billion, up 0.6% [2] - April 2025: MOP 18.858 billion, up 1.7% from April 2024; cumulative revenue MOP 76.514 billion, up 0.8% [2] - May 2025: MOP 21.193 billion, up 5.0% from May 2024; cumulative revenue MOP 97.707 billion, up 1.7% [2] - June 2025: MOP 21.064 billion, up 19.0% from June 2024; cumulative revenue MOP 118.771 billion, up 4.4% [2] - July 2025: MOP 22.125 billion, up 19.0% from July 2024; cumulative revenue MOP 140.896 billion, up 6.5% [2] - August 2025: MOP 22.156 billion, up 12.2% from August 2024; cumulative revenue MOP 163.052 billion, up 7.2% [2] - September 2025: MOP 18.289 billion, up 6.0% from September 2024; cumulative revenue MOP 181.341 billion, up 7.1% [2] - October 2025: MOP 24.086 billion, up 15.9% from October 2024; cumulative revenue MOP 205.427 billion, up 8.0% [2] - November 2025: MOP 21.088 billion, up 14.4% from November 2024; cumulative revenue MOP 226.515 billion, up 8.6% [2] - December 2025: MOP 20.888 billion, up 14.8% from December 2024; cumulative revenue MOP 247.404 billion, up 9.1% [2]

Core Viewpoint - UBS reports a slowdown in Macau's average daily gaming revenue, which is approximately 643 million MOP over the past week, down from 671 million MOP in the previous week, attributed to lower VIP room win rates [1] Summary by Category Gaming Revenue - Average daily gaming revenue in Macau for the current month is about 678 million MOP, reflecting a month-on-month decline of approximately 13% but a year-on-year increase of about 10% [1] - Market forecasts for November's average daily gaming revenue are around 673 million MOP, suggesting that the remaining seven days of this month may see an average daily revenue of approximately 656 million MOP [1] Stock Recommendations - UBS identifies Galaxy Entertainment (00027), MGM China (02282), and Wynn Macau (01128) as preferred gaming stocks, all rated as "Buy" [1]