黄金最新行情趋势分析： 黄金技术面分析：黄金昨晚美盘地缘避险支撑黄金上涨，美联储降息预期概率提升至八成，黄金向上形成支撑，黄金已经有效突破站稳4100一线，日线收大 阳。昨日欧盘在次低点4040做了w底，企稳后上涨。仔细观察这段时间行情，都是做出w底上涨。由于昨日强势收盘，今日看惯性上涨，关注日内回调做多 机会，预计回调4110-4100附近关注做多机会。上方强压力位于4180-4200附近，即三角形上轨区域。今日方面，形成了早间上升的格局，这就出现分化点， 早间低点后上升，这种走势中，分水岭早间低点，按照双双原则，分水岭不能破。所以，继续看涨，那么午后调整的幅度不会过大，太大就变形了。按照小 时线大阳来说，今日日内做多的位置在4110-4100一线。综合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上贺博生建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方短期重点关注 4155-4175一线阻力，下方短期重点关注4110-4090一线支撑。 原油最新行情趋势分析： 投资市场永远有四个层次：保住本金，控制风险，赚取收益，长期稳定持续赢利。不要因为一天的输赢定结果，赚钱是偶然还是必然，是凭真功夫还是凭运 气，在市场上能活着的肯定是最终能够长期持 ...

英国首相斯塔默的发言人周一表示，斯塔默对周末有关乌克兰问题举行的会谈取得"重大进展"表示欢 迎。该发言人补充称，"仍有一些悬而未决的问题"，这些问题将在未来几天和几周内继续讨论。 【环球网报道】美国和乌克兰代表23日在瑞士日内瓦就美方所提结束乌克兰危机28点新计划举行的会谈 于当晚结束。美国国务卿鲁比奥表示会谈"富有成果"。据法新社、英国《卫报》24日报道，美国、英 国、德国、欧盟等就本轮会谈相继发声。 美国总统特朗普在其社交平台发文称，"俄乌和平谈判真的可能取得重大进展吗？……也许确实有一些好 事正在发生。" 俄罗斯总统新闻秘书佩斯科夫24日表示，俄方未收到任何与美国、乌克兰和欧洲国家日内瓦会谈相关的 消息，也并不知晓上述各方在沟通中所制定的计划内容。俄方希望通过官方渠道获得相关信息，而不是 对比不同的媒体报道。他同时表示，俄方对与美国开展沟通和谈判依然持开放立场。 此前，23日，在美乌首轮会谈结束后，鲁比奥、乌克兰总统办公室主任叶尔马克共同会见了记者。叶尔 马克表示，美乌首轮会谈结束，乌克兰代表团与美国代表团举行的会谈非常富有成效，取得了很好的进 展，正在朝着实现公正持久和平这一目标迈进。 鲁比奥表示，这 ...

Group 1: Russia-Ukraine Conflict - Russian President Putin has received the US-proposed "28-point plan" for resolving the Ukraine conflict and is open to negotiations [2] - Ukrainian President Zelensky discussed the US peace plan with NATO Secretary General and expressed readiness for constructive cooperation [3] - US President Trump stated that Zelensky must agree to the US-supported peace plan, or the conflict will continue, emphasizing the urgency of the situation [4][5] Group 2: Market Reactions - US stock markets rebounded, with the Dow Jones up 1.08%, S&P 500 up 0.98%, and Nasdaq up 0.88%, driven by dovish signals from the Federal Reserve [6] - Following comments from New York Fed President Williams, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December rose to over 70% [7] Group 3: Commodity Market Insights - US copper inventories reached a record high of 402,876 short tons, increasing over 330% this year [8] - Lithium carbonate futures experienced a significant drop, with the main contract LC2601 down 9% to 91,020 yuan/ton, reflecting cooling bullish sentiment [9][10] - Analysts noted a slowdown in lithium inventory depletion, with a weekly inventory of 118,000 tons, indicating cautious market sentiment [11] - The anticipated resumption of the Jiangxiawo lithium mine by CATL has raised market expectations, but analysts warn against overreacting to single news events [12][13]

Core Points - The planned summit between President Trump and President Putin in Budapest has been canceled due to Russia's firm demands regarding Ukraine, which included territorial concessions and military reductions [2][3] - The cancellation reflects a significant shift in U.S. policy towards Russia, moving from a potential rapprochement to a more confrontational stance [3][4] Group 1 - The initial agreement for a meeting in Budapest was made earlier this month, with the intention of discussing the resolution of the Ukraine conflict [3] - Following a tense phone call between Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and U.S. Secretary of State Rubio, the U.S. decided to cancel the summit, as Lavrov showed no willingness to negotiate [3][4] - Trump's previous inclination to provide Ukraine with "Tomahawk" missiles has been reversed, as he now considers them "very dangerous weapons" that could escalate the situation [4][5] Group 2 - The cancellation of the summit indicates a rapid change in U.S. diplomatic strategy, as officials express skepticism about the potential for fruitful negotiations with Russia unless there is a change in Moscow's stance [3][6] - Lavrov's comments suggest that Russia is attempting to shift the blame for the situation onto Ukraine and its European allies, while also indicating that the U.S. is under pressure from European nations to seek a ceasefire [5][6]

美国《华尔街日报》24日报道称，泽连斯基的"魅力攻势"扭转了特朗普对乌怀疑。在俄在战场上持续未能取得重大进展、俄经济放缓以及泽连斯 基拉拢特朗普的背景下，特朗普的言辞发生了急剧转变。报道称，美国官员表示，特朗普发表声明的部分原因是为了向普京施压，要求其达成协 议，因为自上个月特朗普和普京在阿拉斯加会晤以来，双方在结束战争方面没有取得任何实质性进展。乌应该将特朗普的言论视为"一种战术举 措"。这些言论并非特朗普有意将战争转向对乌有利的方向，而是对普京的警告，目前而言这只是说辞，还远远不够。 据塔斯社25日报道，俄总统新闻秘书佩斯科夫当天表示，尽管美国方面最近发表了各种言论，但俄方认为这与其宣称的解决俄乌冲突的愿望并不 矛盾，美方仍保留通过和平方式解决乌克兰局势的政治意愿。俄方支持这些努力，仍对启动和平谈判持开放态度。 佩斯科夫表示，特朗普的表态受到了泽连斯基所介绍情况的影响。但泽连斯基所述内容与俄方对目前形势的理解完全相反。乌越是拒绝谈判，其 在谈判中的地位将越恶化。俄方认为，关于乌延续冲突就能夺回某些地区的论调"是错误的"。相较于漂亮的言辞，战场上的形势更具说服力。前 线态势表明，那些拒绝现在进行谈判的人，" ...

Core Points - Over 12,000 protesters gathered in Berlin to support Palestine and call for an end to what they termed "genocide in Gaza" and to stop arms shipments to Israel [1][3] - The leftist party BSW estimated participation at 20,000, marking one of the largest pro-Palestinian gatherings in Germany in recent months [3] - BSW's chairperson emphasized the need for peace negotiations in both the Middle East and Ukraine during the rally [3] Summary by Sections - **Protest Details** - The protest took place at the Brandenburg Gate, with participants condemning Israel's military actions in Gaza against Hamas [1][3] - A protester from Hamburg highlighted that not halting arms sales to Israel equates to supporting genocide in Gaza [3] - **Political Context** - On August 8, Israel's security cabinet approved a plan to defeat Hamas, with military preparations to take over Gaza City [4] - German Chancellor Merz announced a suspension of military equipment exports to Israel that could be used in Gaza [4] - Following Israel's military escalation, Merz urged Israel to refrain from further actions [4] - **Casualty Figures** - As of September 13, the health department in Gaza reported 64,803 deaths and 164,264 injuries since the outbreak of the latest conflict on October 7, 2023 [4]

美国副总统万斯20日受访时称，欧洲国家须为乌安全保障承担"最大份额""发挥主导作用"，美国不应在乌安全保障方面承担重任。美国"在弄清楚 需要采取哪些必要措施结束战争前，不会做出任何承诺"。他还表示，目前乌"想要安全保障"，俄"想要一定数量领土"，相关方面"正在努力"，但 尚未敲定俄乌谈判的所有细节。 据塔斯社报道，俄外长拉夫罗夫20日表示，在没有俄方参与的情况下讨论安全保障问题是"空想"，是一条"死胡同"。俄方愿就解决乌克兰问题展 开任何形式谈判，只要谈判是"真诚"的。他称，高层会晤须在所有前期阶段都"经过最谨慎的准备"后才能举行。只有这样，才不会导致局势恶 化，而是能够真正解决问题。俄安全会议副主席梅德韦杰夫20日在社交媒体上称，俄方已明确表示，绝不接受向乌派驻任何以所谓"维和部队"为 名的北约部队，俄不会接受这样的"安全保障"。 近期，普京同泽连斯基的会晤地点等也引发关注。路透社21日称，匈牙利外长西雅尔多表示，匈牙利已准备好成为俄乌和平谈判的举办地，并为 此创造公平安全的适宜条件。同时，瑞士、奥地利、白俄罗斯方面均表示，愿组织两人的会晤。对于会晤地点，泽连斯基表示，应在"中立"的欧 洲国家举行，并排除了 ...

Group 1 - Central and Eastern European assets lead emerging markets following a meeting between US President Donald Trump, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and European leaders, indicating progress in peace negotiations [1] - The Hungarian Forint and Polish Zloty saw significant appreciation, with the Forint reaching an 11-month high against the Euro [1] - Ukrainian dollar bonds are leading the emerging market gains, with the price of Ukraine's zero-coupon dollar bonds maturing in 2036 rising for the fifth consecutive day, reaching the highest level since late March [1][2] Group 2 - Ferrexpo, a high-grade iron ore exporter listed in London, saw its stock price increase by over 10% following the Washington meeting [4] - Grupa Pracuj, a Polish recruitment company, experienced a stock price rise of over 3% in Warsaw [4]

Group 1 - The article discusses the historical context of Alaska's sale from Russia to the United States, highlighting the geopolitical motivations behind the transaction and its implications for current U.S.-Russia relations [4][5][6]. - The upcoming summit between Trump and Putin in Alaska is framed as a significant moment that could reflect on past territorial negotiations and the ongoing Ukraine conflict [10][12][29]. - The article suggests that the summit may symbolize a potential shift in power dynamics, akin to historical events like the Munich Agreement and the Yalta Conference, with concerns about the exclusion of Ukraine from negotiations [12][76]. Group 2 - The article emphasizes the contrasting positions of Trump and Zelensky, with Trump seeking to leverage the summit for political gain while Zelensky remains firm on territorial integrity [48][49][50]. - It outlines the strategic calculations of both the U.S. and Russia, with Trump aiming to withdraw from the Ukraine conflict to focus on China, while Putin seeks to assert Russia's influence and secure territorial claims [28][36][44]. - The article highlights the role of European nations in the conflict, expressing concerns about their diminishing influence and the potential for a U.S.-Russia agreement that could undermine Ukraine's sovereignty [62][64][66]. Group 3 - The article notes that the geopolitical landscape is shifting, with the U.S. increasingly prioritizing its interests in the Indo-Pacific region over European conflicts, which could lead to a reallocation of resources [28][30]. - It discusses the implications of the summit for European security, suggesting that European nations may need to reassess their strategies in light of potential U.S. disengagement from the Ukraine crisis [63][70]. - The article concludes that the outcome of the Alaska summit could redefine the future of U.S.-Russia relations and the broader geopolitical landscape, with significant consequences for Ukraine and Europe [75][81].

Core Viewpoint - The likelihood of an immediate ceasefire consensus between Russia and the U.S. is low due to significant differences in their core positions, although conditions for serious peace negotiations have become more favorable compared to 6-12 months ago [1][5][7]. Group 1: Meeting Context - The upcoming one-on-one meeting between Presidents Putin and Trump in Anchorage, Alaska, is the first face-to-face encounter since June 2021, with expectations of discussing the Ukraine crisis and potential long-term solutions [3]. - Trump has expressed a belief that an agreement could be reached, estimating a 25% chance of failure in the meeting [3][4]. - The U.S. has lowered expectations ahead of the meeting, indicating a more cautious approach [4]. Group 2: Negotiation Dynamics - There is a fundamental divide in core positions between the two sides, making breakthroughs unlikely [7]. - The U.S. has not yet exerted sufficient pressure to change the situation significantly, despite a recent shift in its stance towards Russia [10]. - Russia's official comments remain limited and vague, with Putin viewing the meeting as an opportunity to achieve multiple objectives, including economic ties [11]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Negotiations - Three key factors have shifted to create a more favorable environment for negotiations: enhanced European defense capabilities and U.S. support, changing public opinion in both Ukraine and Russia favoring negotiations, and challenges facing the Russian economy [15][16][17]. - Despite these favorable conditions, the ongoing battlefield situation remains a critical constraint, with Russia maintaining military initiative [18][19]. Group 4: Possible Outcomes - The report outlines four potential scenarios for the meeting, with the most likely being limited outcomes that pave the way for future discussions, such as a ceasefire on long-range strikes [21]. - Other scenarios include failure leading to increased U.S. sanctions or a negative outcome where agreements bypass Kyiv, though the latter is deemed unlikely [22]. - The nature of any agreement will be more impactful than whether an agreement is reached, with unfavorable terms for Ukraine potentially leading to long-term negative effects on Ukrainian assets [22].