欧盟外长会上，匈牙利又一次把整个联盟的节奏打乱了。 2月23日那天，布鲁塞尔的会议桌上，原本打算推进新一轮对俄制裁的计划，硬是被布达佩斯一票给卡住了。 这事说大不大，说小不小，但放在2026年这个节骨眼上，影响可不轻。 毕竟现在美国那边特朗普已经重新入主白宫，对乌克兰的态度早就不是拜登时期那种无条件支持了，欧洲要是再自己内部扯皮，基辅的日子只会更难熬。 可匈牙利偏偏就这么干了。 而且不是第一次。 欧尔班政府这几年在俄乌问题上，几乎成了欧盟里最"不合群"的那个。 别人喊打喊杀，他稳坐钓鱼台；别人切断能源合作，他照常买油买气。 这次又是因为什么？ 直接导火索，就是乌克兰单方面切断了"友谊"输油管道。 这条管道可不是普通油管。 它从俄罗斯境内出发，一路穿过乌克兰，把原油送到捷克、斯洛伐克、匈牙利这些中欧国家。 几十年来，一直是东欧能源命脉之一。 俄乌冲突爆发后，虽然运输量有所波动，但基本还能维持运转。 直到今年2月22日，乌方突然关停了这条线——理由没细说，但动作很明确：就是要断掉俄罗斯通过乌克兰向欧洲输油的通道。 匈牙利外长西雅尔多当天就炸了。 他直接放话：只要乌方不恢复供油，匈牙利就坚决反对任何新的对俄制裁。 ...

欧洲各国领导人周二齐聚基辅，纪念俄乌冲突四周年。但特朗普政府并未派出任何高级官员——这反映 出美国在试图结束冲突的努力受挫后，采取了更为中立的立场。 泽连斯基与妻子奥莲娜・泽连斯卡娅（Olena Zelenska）以及乌克兰其他高级官员，将与欧洲领导人会 晤，进一步协调结束俄乌冲突的行动。 乌克兰总统办公室表示，到访的领导人还将视察一处能源设施——该设施在近几周遭俄罗斯导弹与无人 机袭击摧毁，在这十多年来最严寒的冬天里，已将基辅推向灾难边缘。 欧盟领导人抵达基辅时，大多两手空空。匈牙利否决了一笔900亿欧元的贷款，以及针对俄罗斯的新一 轮制裁，双方矛盾不断加深；匈牙利指责乌克兰封锁俄罗斯管道石油运输。 欧洲理事会主席安东尼奥・科斯塔（António Costa）、欧盟委员会主席乌尔苏拉・冯德莱恩（Ursula von der Leyen）周二清晨搭乘火车抵达基辅，8位欧盟成员国总理与总统及多名高级官员随行，以纪念 这一日子，并向冲突中数万名遇难者致哀。 乌克兰总统泽连斯基在视频讲话中，以悲伤与自豪交织的心情回顾了这一周年。 "我们捍卫了独立，没有丧失国家地位，"他在2022年2月俄罗斯大军攻入乌克兰时设立的战 ...

俄罗斯、乌克兰与美国三方5日在阿联酋首都阿布扎比结束为期两天的新一轮三方会谈。不过俄乌在领 土、停火等核心问题上未取得实质性进展，也未就相关政治和安全议题发表联合声明。 （文章来源：央视新闻） 总台记者当地时间2月5日获悉，美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特表示，是否对俄罗斯实施进一步制裁，将 取决于旨在结束俄乌冲突的和平谈判进展。 贝森特在参议院银行委员会听证会上称，美国政府正考虑针对俄罗斯"影子舰队"的新制裁选项，但将视 谈判走向而定。 ...

Group 1 - Russia launched a large-scale attack on Ukraine on January 9, using dozens of missiles and over 200 drones, targeting critical infrastructure [1][2] - Ukrainian President Zelensky reported that 242 drones and various missiles, including 13 ballistic missiles and 22 cruise missiles, were used in the attack, resulting in 4 deaths and 19 injuries in Kyiv [1][2] - The Russian Defense Ministry stated that the strikes were a response to a previous attack on President Putin's residence, targeting facilities related to drone production and energy support for military industries [2][3] Group 2 - The Ukrainian Air Force reported that on January 9, Russia used 36 missiles and 242 drones in attacks on key infrastructure, with significant damage reported in Kyiv [2][3] - Ukrainian officials are pushing for an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council and NATO to address the attacks, emphasizing the absurdity of Russia's justification for the strikes [3] - The conflict has seen Russia conducting multiple large-scale strikes and controlling additional settlements, with ongoing military engagements reported [4] Group 3 - U.S. President Trump expressed support for a bipartisan bill imposing sanctions on Russia, indicating a shift in his stance after months of indecision [5] - Ukraine's President Zelensky mentioned that a bilateral security agreement with the U.S. is nearly finalized, aiming to strengthen Ukraine's position in negotiations [5] - Discussions are ongoing regarding the establishment of a multinational force in Ukraine post-conflict, with emphasis on the need for Russian consent for any such arrangements [6][7]

Core Points - Russia launched a large-scale attack on Ukraine on January 9, using dozens of missiles and over 200 drones targeting critical infrastructure [1][2] - The Ukrainian government reported casualties of 4 dead and 19 injured due to the drone strikes in Kyiv [1][2] - The attack was described as a retaliation for an alleged Ukrainian attack on a Russian presidential residence [2] Summary by Sections Attack Details - Russia's military used 242 drones and various missile types, including 13 ballistic missiles and 22 cruise missiles, to strike energy and civilian infrastructure in Ukraine [1][2] - The Ukrainian Air Force confirmed the use of a medium-range ballistic missile, referred to as "Zaltsa," in the attack on Lviv, marking the first use of such weapons in that region since the conflict began [3] International Response - U.S. President Trump expressed support for a bipartisan bill imposing sanctions on Russia, indicating a shift in his stance after months of indecision [5] - Ukrainian President Zelensky announced that a bilateral security agreement with the U.S. is nearly finalized, aiming to strengthen Ukraine's defense capabilities [5] Military Developments - The Russian Defense Ministry reported that it had completed its designated strike tasks, targeting facilities related to drone production and energy support for military industries [2] - In the past week, Russian forces reportedly controlled five settlements and engaged in multiple attacks on Ukrainian military and logistical targets [4] Diplomatic Efforts - Ukraine's Foreign Minister stated that Ukraine would push for an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council in response to the attacks [3] - Discussions regarding the establishment of a multinational force in Ukraine post-conflict were highlighted, with emphasis on the need for a ceasefire agreement with Russia [7]

Report Summary 1. Hot News - Gold has officially surpassed US Treasuries to become the world's largest reserve asset for the first time in thirty years. As of the end of 2025, the value of global official gold reserves held overseas by the US reached $3.93 trillion, exceeding the value of overseas official US Treasuries, which was nearly $3.88 trillion as of October last year [2]. - US President Trump has agreed to promote a bill to strengthen sanctions against Russia. The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that normal economic and energy cooperation between China and Russia does not target third - parties and should not be interfered with [2]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation recently约谈 the China Photovoltaic Industry Association and six leading polysilicon enterprises, warning of monopoly risks and setting restrictions on production and price - related agreements [2]. - Indonesia may approve about 600 million tons of coal production quotas in 2026 and adjust its nickel quotas according to industry demand. The domestic demand for nickel ore in Indonesian smelters is expected to rise from about 300 million tons in 2025 to about 340 - 350 million tons in 2026 [2]. - CME announced on January 8 (local time) that it will raise the performance bond for precious metal varieties after the market on January 9, which is the third such notice in the past month [3]. 2. Key Focus - The key commodities to focus on are urea, lithium carbonate, polysilicon, crude oil, and plastic [4]. 3. Night - session Performance - **Plate Performance**: The night - session price changes of different commodity futures sectors are as follows: non - metallic building materials 2.17%, precious metals 30.68%, oilseeds 8.01%, non - ferrous metals 28.17%, soft commodities 3.26%, coal, coking, and steel 10.67%, energy 2.41%, chemicals 10.22%, grains 1.16%, and agricultural and sideline products 3.25% [4]. - **Plate Position**: The document shows the position changes of commodity futures sectors in the past five days [5]. 4. Performance of Major Asset Classes - **Equity**: The daily, monthly, and annual percentage changes of major stock indices are provided. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index had a daily change of - 0.07%, a monthly change of 2.88%, and an annual change of 2.88% [6]. - **Fixed - income**: The daily, monthly, and annual changes of different - term treasury bond futures are presented. For instance, the 10 - year treasury bond futures had a daily change of 0.15%, a monthly change of - 0.06%, and an annual change of - 0.06% [6]. - **Commodity**: The performance of commodities such as the CRB commodity index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, and the Wind commodity index is shown. For example, WTI crude oil had a daily change of 4.27%, a monthly change of 1.53%, and an annual change of 1.53% [6]. - **Other**: The daily, monthly, and annual changes of the US dollar index and the CBOE volatility index are given. The US dollar index had a daily change of 0.12%, a monthly change of 0.60%, and an annual change of 0.60% [6]. 5. Trends of Major Commodities - The document presents the trends of various commodities including the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, London spot silver, LME 3 - month copper, and agricultural products such as CBOT soybeans and CBOT corn, as well as relevant ratios like the gold - oil ratio and copper - gold ratio, and stock market risk premiums [7].

Core Viewpoint - European Union (EU) leaders reaffirmed their support for Ukraine during a call with President Zelensky, emphasizing the importance of achieving a just and lasting peace while maintaining Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity [1] Group 1: EU Support for Ukraine - European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that the EU will continue to pressure Russia and support Ukraine on its path to EU membership by 2026 [1] - European Council President Costa emphasized that EU support for Ukraine remains unwavering, highlighting recent decisions to ensure funding for Ukraine over the next two years and to extend sanctions against Russia [1] - Dutch Prime Minister Rutte reiterated unconditional support for Ukraine and the importance of continued cooperation among the US, Ukraine, and Europe, committing to ongoing military support, including air defense [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Europe's reluctance to adopt extreme measures against Russia, despite internal pressure from hardliners, reflects a significant compromise that impacts its stance on supporting Ukraine and highlights Europe's apprehension towards Russia's power [2][3]. - The energy security crisis poses an economic shock, with Russia still accounting for 15% of the EU's total natural gas imports in 2023, making it the third-largest supplier. Predictions indicate a 10% increase in LNG imports from Russia in 2024, revealing Europe's dependency as a "soft spot" and undermining confidence in its energy autonomy plans [2][3]. - Internal divisions among EU member states are evident, with Hungary's Prime Minister openly criticizing the EU's abandonment of Russian fossil fuels as a cause for economic slowdown and high energy prices. This dissent poses a direct challenge to the EU's unified stance on sanctions against Russia [3]. Group 2 - Russia's nuclear deterrence strategy has created a sense of urgency in Europe, as Russia has reiterated its willingness to use all means to protect its national interests. The lack of prior diplomatic communication regarding military exercises adds to the tension, signaling a clear warning to European hardliners [3]. - Global public opinion and concerns from allies, particularly the United States, complicate the situation. The U.S. has urged Europe to avoid actions that could trigger a global trust crisis, reflecting internal divisions within the West regarding extreme measures against Russia [4]. - The dynamics of Europe's compromise and the ongoing geopolitical games suggest that if Europe continues to be influenced by hardliners pushing for extreme measures, its energy and economic crises may worsen. Conversely, recognizing the intertwined interests with Russia and seeking dialogue could lead to a potential easing of tensions [4].

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury Secretary criticized European leaders for planning additional sanctions against Russia, stating that the EU's sanctions have "failed" [1][3] - The Secretary highlighted that if a measure is implemented 19 times, it indicates failure, referring to the EU's 19th round of sanctions against Russia [3] - The EU's 19th round of sanctions includes 69 new individual sanctions and various economic restrictions, primarily targeting Russia's energy, finance, and military sectors [3] Group 2 - The EU Commission President announced that member states have approved the 19th round of sanctions, marking the first time the EU targets Russia's natural gas industry [3] - The Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson stated that the new sanctions will not achieve their intended effects and may harm the EU itself, asserting that Russia has developed immunity to sanctions [3] - Despite facing sanctions, Russia intends to continue developing its economic and political potential [3]

Core Points - Trump announced that Republicans are advancing a bill to impose sanctions on any country conducting business with Russia [1] - The proposed legislation allows Trump to impose tariffs of up to 500% on goods imported from countries purchasing Russian energy, particularly affecting major consumers like China and India [1] - The U.S. government has already implemented significant sanctions against major Russian oil companies, including Lukoil and Rosneft [1] Summary by Sections Legislative Actions - Republicans are submitting a bill that includes severe sanctions against countries engaging in business with Russia [1] - Senate Majority Leader John Thune is prepared to vote on the long-pushed sanctions bill by Senator Lindsey Graham [1] Economic Implications - The bill would enable the imposition of high tariffs on imports from countries buying Russian energy, which could significantly impact trade relations with countries like China and India [1] Current Sanctions Status - The Trump administration has already enacted substantial sanctions against Russian oil companies [1] - U.S. Secretary of State Rubio indicated that the U.S. has reached its limit on new sanctions against Russia and will focus on enforcing existing measures [1]