今日周一（12月22日）亚盘时段，黄金期货目前交投于996附近，截至发稿，黄金期货暂996.76元/克， 涨幅1.69%，最高触及997.44元/克，最低下探978.32元/克。目前来看，黄金期货短线偏向看涨走势。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 MACD虽处高位，但未现明显死叉，动能略有放缓，暗示行情或以"横盘换空间"方式蓄势。操作上，趋 势未破坏前不宜逆势做空，可关注回踩关键均线或区间下沿的企稳信号；若后续放量突破震荡区间，则 上方仍有进一步走高空间。总体思路：顺势而为、等待回踩、严控风险。 有消息称，美国卫生部长小罗伯特·肯尼迪长期推动的食品券项目改革将在明年1月1日生效，但因缺乏 统一、明确的界定标准，美国各州政府、零售商和项目受助群体对具体内容普遍存在困惑。目前美国已 有18个州推出限制措施，禁止使用食品券项目提供的补助购买汽水和部分加工食品。由于在联邦层面缺 少详细的食品清单和统一的判定标准，美国地方官员、食品零售商和食品券项目受助者普遍难以确定还 有哪些食品可供购买。 【最新黄金期货行情解析】 \从1小时图观察，沪金价格持续运行于布林带中上轨之间，重心稳步抬升，整体趋势结构依旧偏 ...

Most of the week will be barren as investors head for the Christmas holidayAs expected, Christmas week will be a quiet one, with no earnings on deck and only a handful of economic reports scheduled. Several of the data releases will be ones previously delayed by the U.S. government shutdown, which lasted from Oct. 1 through Nov. 12, including third quarter gross domestic product (GDP) numbers.Earnings are finished for the year, with the next reports scheduled for Tuesday, Jan. 6.Below is the schedule of key ...

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 就周二晚些时候公布的包含10-11月就业数据的非农报告而言，解读它绝非易事。经济学家们想要弄 清，这份报告究竟会显示本就脆弱的劳动力市场急剧恶化——还是就业市场已显现企稳迹象。 最新的非农报告将包含10月的部分数据和11月的完整数据。而10月失业率将永远不会公布。 2025年前九个月，美国私营部门月均新增就业7.2万人。按历史标准来看，这一数字相当疲软，而美联 储主席鲍威尔表示，这一数据甚至可能高估了就业创造规模。 失业率 美联储今年已三次降息，旨在阻止失业率进一步上升。 由于在创纪录的43天政府停摆期间被迫休假，美国劳工统计局（BLS）的工作人员未能从家庭调查中收 集到所需的全部数据。 劳工统计局的就业预估数据来自另一项独立且自动化程度更高的企业调查，该调查的可靠性更强。 尽管如此，10月和11月的就业预估肯定会因联邦员工的延迟离职而失真。特朗普政府在春季向他们提供 了买断离职福利，而这些福利直到秋季才正式生效。 停摆期间，数十万联邦员工也处于失业状态，这同样可能扭曲数据结果。 私营部门就业是关键 评估这份就业报告的最佳方式是观察私营部门招聘的变化， ...

在美国非农就业报告公布前，投资者持谨慎态度，美元交投持稳，但徘徊在近期低点附近。美国劳工部 将于格林威治时间1330公布推迟发布的11月份报告以及10月份的部分数据。近期的政府停摆导致官方数 据推迟发布。美联储在上周降息时指出劳动力市场降温。不过，德国商业银行的Volkmar Baur在一份报 告中称，应谨慎看待该数据，因为数据是在创纪录时长的政府停摆后不久收集的。"因此预计会出现某 些扭曲。"DXY美元指数交投持平于98.286，接近周四触及的近八周低点98.134。 来源：滚动播报 ...

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 2025年，拜登加强型医保成为两党政治博弈工具，也成为了牵动资本市场的重要线索。目前，两党仅就3 个部门的全年预算（占比11%）达成一致，剩余9个部门预算将在2026年1月30日到期。而在12月11日的医 保投票中，双方再次否决对方提案，导致圣诞节假期前解决医保的希望基本破灭。受此影响，polymarket 预测政府关门概率一度冲上40%，后下行至35%左右。明年一季度，应对医保和政府关门，可能有四种场 景，也对应不同的资产价格表现： 场景一，政府停摆，医保补贴断档，触发降息，美国资产进入"衰退式"交易。该种场景下，美元指数和美 股下挫，黄金等避险资产及非美股市受益。但是，该场景依然为低概率事件，目前两党谁都无法承担医保 补贴无法延期的后果，尤其是面临中期选举冲击的共和党。 场景二，两党围绕着医保补贴达成一致，政府顺利运行，一季度美国经济实现环比反弹，降息暂缓。该种 场景利好美股和美元指数，黄金作为避险资产将相对承压，美债也会受到赤字走扩的冲击。但在明年1 月，两党之间能否就医保取得一个令双方都能满意的协议，依然存在较大挑战。 场景三，共和党人以"预算协调"的方式强力推动财政预算 ...

市场观察人士指出，相比本次会议本身，美联储对未来政策路径的展望更值得关注。会议后发布的经济预测摘要，尤其是明年利率走势预测，可能对市场情 绪产生更持久影响。若政策制定者释放信号比市场预期更谨慎，即便本次实施降息，也可能影响年末行情的持续性。 市场波动可能加剧。期权市场数据显示，会议当日股指预期波动幅度上升。分析提示，此前部分经济数据发布受阻，机构投资者模型调整存在滞后，或导致 市场在关键事件前后出现较大波动。投资者需在保持中长期信心的同时，做好短期波动风险防范。 临近岁末，市场对年末传统上涨行情——"圣诞老人行情"关注度升温。今年这一季节性走势能否如期出现，关键取决于即将到来的美联储政策会议结果。投 资者正密切关注会议信号，判断市场将收获"礼物"还是面临压力。 当前市场普遍预期美联储将在本次会议调整基准利率。衍生品市场数据显示，降息25个基点的概率已接近九成。这一预期已体现在近期市场走势中：11月经 历阶段性回调后，主要股指逐步回升，标普500指数已接近历史高位。 此前市场调整受两方面因素影响：一是对人工智能相关交易过热的担忧，二是对政府停摆可能引发经济影响的疑虑。随着政府停摆结束，官方经济数据恢复 发布，近 ...

Economic Overview - The Federal Reserve indicates that overall economic activity in the U.S. has not changed significantly in recent weeks, with consumer spending declining further, except for high-income consumers whose spending remains robust [1] - The Fed's Beige Book highlights a rising risk of economic activity slowing in the coming months, although there is some optimism in the manufacturing sector [1] Consumer Spending - Regions including New York, Atlanta, and Minneapolis report that high-income consumers continue to show resilience in their spending [2] - In contrast, middle and low-income consumers are tightening their budgets, as noted by a respondent from the Minneapolis Fed [2] Employment Trends - Despite an increase in layoff announcements, many regions report that businesses are opting for cost-saving measures such as hiring freezes and natural attrition rather than direct layoffs [2][2] - The report notes that recent wage increases are generally in line with the Fed's inflation targets, but there are still "moderate" wage pressures in manufacturing, construction, and healthcare sectors [2] Price Pressures - Tariffs remain a significant concern for businesses, particularly in manufacturing and retail, with many reporting increased input cost pressures [2] - Some companies indicate that tariffs have led to tighter profit margins or increased financial pressure, while others report price declines due to decreased demand or postponed tariffs [2] Government Impact - The report was largely compiled during a federal government shutdown, which negatively affected consumer spending according to some retailers [3] - The shutdown disrupted the issuance of SNAP benefits, leading to an increase in demand for food assistance [3] Market Expectations - The Fed officials will not have access to most labor market and inflation data until after the December meeting, which has intensified internal divisions regarding potential interest rate cuts [3] - Market expectations for the December meeting fluctuate between "rate cut" and "no change," with the probability of a rate cut rising to approximately 80% following supportive comments from officials [3]

民生福利面临困境 民生福利领域也面临不少问题。4200万人依赖补充营养援助计划，本以为停摆结束 后能立即拿到福利，但由于各州核算和未支付项的流程复杂，不少人仍需等待。例如，得克萨斯州有 380万受益人，补发福利的发放延迟了两周多，期间许多低收入家庭的食物已经接近耗尽。 可见，停摆 结束只是迈出了第一步，民生领域的后遗症仍需要时间去逐步解决。 当地停摆风险隐现 11月12日晚，美国众议院以222票对209票通过了参议院的拨款法案，特朗普总统在 椭圆形办公室签署了这份法案。这标志着美国历史上持续时间最长的联邦政府停摆，终于画上了句号。 自10月1日以来的这次停摆，持续了整整六周，打破了此前的纪录，这段时间的消耗可谓毫无意义的内 耗，甚至可以说没有给国家带来任何积极的成果。 民生复苏：欠薪补发了，但麻烦依然存在 一旦停摆结束的消息传出，最开心的无疑是联邦政府的雇员 们。67万名被迫休假的员工可以返回工作岗位，73万名未休假的工作人员也能拿到应得的补发工资。按 照规定，大家必须在5天内重新上班，其中70%的欠薪将在24至48小时内到账，其余部分将在一周内结 清。 虽然补发工资的速度看起来很快，但回想起这六周内，许多人 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant decline in consumer confidence in the U.S., with implications for the consumer sector and overall economic outlook [3][6]. Consumer Confidence - The final consumer confidence index for November dropped from 53.6 in October to 51, marking a historical low [3][6]. - The current conditions index fell by 7.5 points to 51.1, also a record low [3][6]. - Consumer assessments of personal financial situations have decreased by approximately 15%, with 47% of consumers citing high prices as a negative impact on their finances [6][10]. Stock Market Performance - The consumer sector in the U.S. stock market has faced significant sell-offs, with the essential consumer goods sector declining at three times the rate of the S&P 500 index since October [3][4]. - Non-essential consumer goods have also seen a 5.2% decline, making it one of the worst-performing sectors in the market during this period [4][6]. - If the market closes this week as projected, it will be the first time since 1990 that both essential and non-essential consumer sectors are the weakest among the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 [4][5]. Economic Implications - Consumer spending accounts for approximately 70% of the U.S. economy, making it a critical variable despite current market focus on companies like Nvidia [6]. - The article notes that consumer sentiment is deteriorating, with 69% of consumers expecting unemployment rates to rise, up from 64% in October [6][10]. - The disparity in financial health among different income groups is widening, with wealthier consumers maintaining spending while those without stock assets are experiencing worsening financial conditions [10].

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected increase of 119,000 non-farm jobs in September significantly exceeded market expectations, raising the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will not lower interest rates next month [1] Economic Impact - Kevin Hassett, Director of the National Economic Council, indicated that the government shutdown is expected to negatively impact Q4 GDP by 1.5 percentage points [1] - The strong employment report for September is not sufficient to offset other negative factors affecting the economy [1] Inflation and Interest Rates - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September showed better-than-expected inflation, which is currently above the Federal Reserve's 2% target [3] - There are concerns that lowering interest rates to support the labor market could prolong the high inflation cycle and increase risk appetite in financial markets [3] Employment Trends - The employment growth in September followed a downward revision of August's job gains from an increase of 22,000 to a decrease of 4,000 [1] - The recent trend shows fluctuations in job growth, with negative job additions in June, followed by increases in July and September [1] - Most job growth has been in the healthcare and education sectors, but the construction industry is also seeing an increase in jobs due to new factory openings driven by tax incentives [1][4] Unemployment Rate - Despite the significant job growth, the unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4%, attributed to an increase in labor force participation as more individuals begin to seek employment [1][4]