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《金融》日报-20251010
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 01:34
TS-T —— TF-T 注教也公众 | 贵金属期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【 2011】1292号 | | | | | | | 2025年10月10日 | | | | 叶倩宁 | Z0016628 | | 国内期货收盘价 | | | | | | | 品中 | 10月9日 | 9月29日 | 涨跌 | 张联帽 | 单位 | | AU2512合约 | 914.32 | 866.52 | 47.80 | 5.52% | 7L/52 | | AG2512合约 | 11169 | 10939 | 230 | 2.10% | 元/千克 | | 外盘期货收盘价 | | | | | | | 品种 | 10月9日 | 10月8日 | 张浩 | 张跃幅 | 单位 | | COMEX黄金主力合约 | 3991.10 | 4060.60 | -69.50 | -1.71% | 美元/盎司 | | COMEX白银主力合约 | 47.66 | 48.44 | -0.78 | -1.62% | | | 现货价格 | | | ...
贵金属早报-20251010
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 01:20
贵金属早报 研究中心宏观团队 2025/10/10 价 格 表 现 品种 伦敦金 伦敦银 伦敦铂 伦敦钯 WTI原油 LME铜 最新 4019.25 49.71 1571.00 1235.00 - 10867.50 变化 193.95 3.53 -18.00 -22.00 - 485.50 品种 美元指数 欧元兑美元 英镑兑美元 美元兑日元 美国10年期TIPS 最新 - 1.16 1.33 - - 变化 - -0.02 -0.01 - - 交 易 数 据 日期 COMEX白银 库存 上期所白银 库存 黄金ETF持仓 白银ETF持仓 上金所白银 库存 上金所黄金 递延费支付方向 上金所白银 递延费支付方向 最新 - 1186.85 1013.44 - - 1 1 变化 - -5.43 0.56 - - 0.00 0.00 贵 金 属 比 价 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯,我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正,研究方法专业审慎,分析结论合理,但公司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证,也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会 发生任何 ...
永安期货贵金属早报-20251009
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-10-09 01:04
贵金属早报 研究中心宏观团队 2025/10/09 价 格 表 现 品种 伦敦金 伦敦银 伦敦铂 伦敦钯 WTI原油 LME铜 最新 3825.30 46.18 1589.00 1257.00 62.37 10382.00 变化 -1.55 -0.77 37.00 -18.00 -1.08 118.00 品种 美元指数 欧元兑美元 英镑兑美元 美元兑日元 美国10年期TIPS 最新 97.82 1.17 1.34 147.93 1.80 交 易 数 据 | 日期 | COMEX白银 | 上期所白银 | 黄金ETF持仓 | 白银ETF持仓 | 上金所白银 | 上金所黄金 | 上金所白银 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 库存 | 库存 | | | 库存 | 递延费支付方向 | 递延费支付方向 | | 最新 | 16491.06 | 1192.28 | 1012.88 | 15685.09 | - | 1 | 1 | | 变化 | -39.95 | 2.63 | 1.15 | 163.74 | - | 0.00 | 0.00 | 贵 金 ...
有色和贵金属每日早盘观察-20250930
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 11:47
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the precious metals, copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, industrial silicon, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, and tin markets. It takes into account factors such as market trends, supply and demand dynamics, policy impacts, and geopolitical risks, and offers corresponding trading strategies for each metal [3][4][6][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold reached a new high of over $3,830 per ounce, closing up 1.97%. London silver hit a high of $47.174, closing up 1.9%. The Shanghai gold and silver futures also reached new highs [3]. - **Important Information**: The US government faces a shutdown crisis, which may affect economic data release and the Fed's October monetary policy decision. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in October is 89.8% [3][4]. - **Logic Analysis**: The US government shutdown risk and the expectation of interest rate cuts have increased market risk aversion, leading to a strong upward trend in precious metals. However, due to the approaching National Day holiday in China, it is advisable to reduce positions at high prices [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Take profits at high prices before the holiday and hold light positions. Wait and see for arbitrage. Buy deep out - of - the - money call options or collar call options [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: The night - session of SHFE copper 2511 contract closed up 1.96%. LME copper closed down 2.19%. LME inventory decreased by 500 tons, while COMEX inventory increased by 923 tons [6]. - **Important Information**: The US government may shut down, and different Fed officials have different views on interest rates [6]. - **Logic Analysis**: The Grasberg accident has exacerbated the tightness of copper ore supply. Domestic production has declined, and consumption is weak. The long - term supply - demand structure has changed [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: Adopt a low - buying strategy for long positions. Hold off - market positive arbitrage positions. Wait and see for options [8]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The night - session of alumina 2601 contract fell. Spot prices in various regions declined [10]. - **Important Information**: Eight departments proposed to strengthen resource exploration and rationally layout alumina projects. The national alumina operating capacity increased, and the import price decreased [10][13]. - **Logic Analysis**: Policy impacts on capacity investment are limited. The import window is open, and the fundamentals are in surplus, so the price is expected to be weak [14]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect the price to trend weakly. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [14][16]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The night - session of cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose. Spot prices remained flat [16]. - **Important Information**: Policies affected the recycled aluminum industry. The exchange's aluminum alloy warehouse receipts increased, and downstream enterprises had different holiday arrangements [18]. - **Logic Analysis**: The tight supply of scrap aluminum restricts raw material stocking. Downstream holidays are extended, and the price is expected to fluctuate narrowly [18]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect the futures price to fluctuate with the aluminum price. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [19]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The night - session of SHFE aluminum 2511 contract rose. Spot prices in various regions declined [21]. - **Important Information**: US economic data showed resilience. Chinese aluminum ingot inventory decreased, and photovoltaic installation declined. Downstream enterprises' holiday and procurement situations varied [22][23]. - **Logic Analysis**: US economic data affects interest rate cut expectations. Domestic inventory decreased, but consumption is not strong. The price is expected to fluctuate, and there may be inventory accumulation after the holiday [24]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect the price to fluctuate in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [25]. Zinc - **Market Review**: LME zinc rose, and SHFE zinc rose. Spot premiums increased [26]. - **Important Information**: Domestic zinc inventory decreased, and a mining company obtained a new mining license [27]. - **Logic Analysis**: In October, domestic zinc concentrate production may decrease, and imports are expected to decline. Refined zinc supply may increase, and consumption is not expected to improve significantly. Overseas inventory reduction supports the price, but there are risks of overseas delivery [27][28]. - **Trading Strategies**: Control positions before the holiday. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [30]. Lead - **Market Review**: LME lead fell, and SHFE lead fell slightly. Spot prices declined, and downstream procurement was okay [32]. - **Important Information**: Lead inventory decreased, lead battery enterprise production was mixed, and the holiday may lead to a decline in production [32][33][35]. - **Logic Analysis**: The lead concentrate market is in tight balance, and scrap lead prices are likely to rise. Primary lead production may be affected by losses, while secondary lead production may increase. Consumption in the peak season is not as expected [35]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect the price to fluctuate weakly. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [36]. Nickel - **Market Review**: LME nickel rose, and SHFE nickel rose. LME nickel inventory increased, and premiums of different brands changed [38]. - **Important Information**: Russian nickel entered the US market through Europe. Indonesia's actions affected the nickel price [38][40]. - **Logic Analysis**: Indonesia's actions drove a slight rebound in the nickel price. Downstream consumption is expected to be flat, and the supply is still in surplus. It is recommended to hold an empty position during the holiday [40]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect a wide - range fluctuation. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [41][42]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract of stainless steel rose, and index positions decreased. Spot prices were in a certain range [42]. - **Important Information**: A Korean and a Chinese company will jointly build a stainless steel plant in Indonesia [42]. - **Logic Analysis**: Stainless steel followed the nickel price to rebound slightly. Supply pressure remains, but inventory is lower than last year, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to hold an empty position during the holiday [44]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect a wide - range fluctuation. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [44]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures fell, and some spot prices declined [46]. - **Important Information**: A silicon project started construction [46]. - **Logic Analysis**: The inventory structure is "low at both ends and high in the middle." The supply is not very sensitive to price changes. There are rumors of increased production, and the price may回调 in the short term and then can be bought [46]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect a short - term callback and then buy. Sell out - of - the - money put options to take profits. No arbitrage opportunity [47]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures fluctuated narrowly and fell slightly. Spot prices were stable [49]. - **Important Information**: The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission held a symposium [49]. - **Logic Analysis**: Spot prices are stable, but there are pressures on contract delivery and inventory accumulation. The price may回调 in the short term, and it is recommended to exit long positions and then re - enter after the holiday [49]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect a short - term callback, exit long positions and re - enter after the holiday. Conduct reverse arbitrage between 2511 and 2512 contracts. Sell out - of - the - money put options to take profits [50]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract of lithium carbonate rose, and positions and warehouse receipts increased. Spot prices declined [52][53]. - **Important Information**: A lithium mining company modified a supply agreement, Tesla entered the Indian market, and a lithium project was put into production [53]. - **Logic Analysis**: October demand is strong, supply growth is narrowing, and inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to fluctuate during the holiday, and the situation may change after the holiday. It is recommended to hold an empty position [52][53][54]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect a wide - range fluctuation. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money put options [55]. Tin - **Market Review**: SHFE tin rose, and spot prices declined. Consumption was weak [56]. - **Important Information**: The US government shutdown risk, Fed officials' views, and Indonesia's closure of illegal mining points affected the market [56][57]. - **Logic Analysis**: The US situation and Indonesia's actions affected the price. The tin concentrate supply is still tight, demand is weak, and inventory decreased. Attention should be paid to Myanmar's resumption of production and consumption recovery [57][59]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect a short - term strong - side fluctuation, be cautious about Indonesia's event. Wait and see for options [59].
贵金属数据日报-20250930
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 03:04
2)逻辑分析:近期俄与和中东等地缘局势再度紧张、美国政府可能停摆等推升避险情绪,提振贵金属价格上涨,伦敦金突破3800美元/盎司关口,再创历史新高,其 f标影影 次,持续的降息预期也为贵金属价格构成支撑。白银方面,近期美国经济数据表现良好,使得市场对预防式降息后美国经济可能软着陆的预期走强,利好白银工业品 及 图库束 属性,从而强化银价弹性,因此在金融和工业属性的共振下,银价加速上涨,伦敦银突破47美元/盎司关口,沪银期货一度突破1100元/千克关口,距离历史新高仅一 步之遥。展望后市,我们认为贵金属价格长期仍有上行空间,仍具较强配置价值。但近期在白银显著加速上涨的节奏下,随着国内十一长假来临之际,我们建议投资 者谨慎追涨,轻仓过节为主,企业则建议做好套期保值以规避假期可能的剧烈波动风险。 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/9/30 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | ...
永安期货贵金属早报-20250930
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 01:48
贵金属早报 研究中心宏观团队 2025/09/30 价 格 表 现 品种 伦敦金 伦敦银 伦敦铂 伦敦钯 WTI原油 LME铜 最新 3826.85 46.95 1552.00 1275.00 63.45 10264.00 变化 57.00 1.95 47.00 41.00 -2.27 -7.50 品种 美元指数 欧元兑美元 英镑兑美元 美元兑日元 美国10年期TIPS 最新 97.93 1.17 1.34 148.61 - 变化 -0.26 0.00 0.00 -0.89 - 交 易 数 据 日期 COMEX白银 库存 上期所白银 库存 黄金ETF持仓 白银ETF持仓 上金所白银 库存 上金所黄金 递延费支付方向 上金所白银 递延费支付方向 最新 16531.01 1189.65 1011.73 15521.35 1252.41 1 1 变化 35.45 31.38 6.01 159.51 0.00 0.00 0.00 贵 金 属 比 价 升 贴 水 、 库 存 、 E T F 持 仓 变 化 以上图表数据来源:彭博、永安源点资讯、万得 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的 ...
领峰贵金属双倍积分再暴击!美联储降息落地,黄金剑指4000大关?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-29 03:00
并且此次降息也标志着美国货币政策正式转向宽松。这一决策的核心触发因素,是就业市场的结构性疲 软,数据显示美国8月失业率升至4.3%,非农就业人数仅增长2.2万,远低于市场预期的15万,并且9月 公布的8月通胀数据未超预期,进一步缓解了美联储的通胀焦虑。 目前美联储主席鲍威尔强调"并未进入快速降息通道",但市场更关注的是宽松预期的持续性。根据目前 点阵图显示,美国今年很可能降息三次,因此可以说黄金当下支撑强劲,年底前触及4000美元已成为市 场共识。 黄金新一轮大涨在即,来领峰贵金属畅享双倍积分 当前黄金多头发力,趋势强劲,每一次回调都可能是入场良机,并且稍晚,美国制造业数据以及美国非 农等重磅经济数据都将出炉,同时美联储10月降息25个基点的概率,也已升至91.9%,黄金新一轮大涨 在即!值此之时,领峰贵金属双倍积分活动惊喜回归,交易伦敦金/伦敦银,每累计满1手,可在原赠送 200积分的基础上,额外获赠奖励200积分!积分可兑换赠金,赶紧抓住机会抢先入场,双倍积分奖赏助 您畅爽交易,喜迎丰收! 2025-09-29 09:50:28 作者:狼叫兽 (图源:领峰贵金属官网) 随着美联储正式开启降息,市场原本忐忑 ...
永安期货贵金属早报-20250929
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 01:02
Price Performance - London Gold latest price is 3769.85, with a change of 39.10 [1] - London Silver latest price is 45.00, with a change of 0.06 [1] - London Platinum latest price is 1505.00, with a change of 25.00 [1] - London Palladium latest price is 1234.00, with a change of 8.00 [1] - WTI Crude latest price is 65.72, with a change of 0.74 [1] - LME Copper latest price is 10271.50, with a change of -51.50 [1] Trading Data - COMEX Silver: no latest inventory data and change provided [2] - SHFE Silver latest inventory is 1158.27, with a change of 1.41 [2] - Gold ETF latest holding is 1005.72, with a change of 8.87 [2] - Silver ETF latest holding is 15361.84, with a change of -28.23 [2] - SGE Silver: no latest inventory data provided, and its deferred fee payment direction is 1 with no change [2] - SGE Gold deferred fee payment direction is 1 with no change [2] Other Market Data - US Dollar Index latest is 98.19, with a change of -0.27 [11] - EUR/USD latest is 1.17, with a change of 0.00 [11] - GBP/USD latest is 1.34, with a change of 0.01 [11] - USD/JPY latest is 149.50, with a change of -0.30 [11] - US 10 - year TIPS latest is 1.82, with a change of 0.02 [11]
永安期货贵金属早报-20250926
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 01:24
Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is 3730.75 with a change of -30.85 [2] - London Silver's latest price is 44.94 with a change of 1.06 [2] - London Platinum's latest price is 1480.00 with a change of 2.00 [2] - London Palladium's latest price is 1226.00 with a change of -4.00 [2] - WTI Crude's latest price is 64.99 with a change of 0.00 [2] - LME Copper's latest price is 10323.00 with a change of 357.00 [2] - US Dollar Index's latest value is 97.87 with a change of 0.00 [2] - Euro to US Dollar's latest exchange rate is 1.17 with a change of 0.00 [2] - British Pound to US Dollar's latest exchange rate is 1.34 with a change of 0.00 [2] - US Dollar to Japanese Yen's latest exchange rate is 148.90 with a change of 0.00 [2] - US 10 - year TIPS's latest value is 1.78 with a change of 0.00 [2] Trading Data - COMEX Silver's latest inventory is 16396.36 with a change of 0.00 [3] - SHFE Silver's latest inventory is 1156.86 with a change of -4.94 [3] - Gold ETF's latest holding is 996.85 with a change of 0.00 [3] - Silver ETF's latest holding is 15390.07 with a change of -79.05 [3] - SGE Silver's latest inventory is 1248.26 with a change of 0.00 [3] - SGE Gold's latest deferred fee payment direction is 1 with a change of -1.00 [3] - SGE Silver's latest deferred fee payment direction is 1 with a change of 0.00 [3]
永安期货贵金属早报-20250925
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 01:26
Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is 3783.80 with a change of 0.00 [3] - London Silver's latest price is 44.33 with a change of 0.00 [3] - London Platinum's latest price is 1413.00 with a change of 0.00 [3] - London Palladium's latest price is 1176.00 with a change of 0.00 [3] - WTI Crude's latest price is 63.41 with a change of 0.00 [3] - LME Copper's latest price is 9966.00 with a change of -1.00 [3] - The latest Dollar Index is 97.24 [3] - The latest Euro to US Dollar exchange rate is 1.18 [3] - The latest Pound to US Dollar exchange rate is 1.35 [3] - The latest US Dollar to Japanese Yen exchange rate is 147.66 [3] - The latest US 10 - year TIPS is 1.75 [3] Trading Data - COMEX Silver's latest inventory is 16383.70 with a change of 0.00 [4] - SHFE Silver's latest inventory is 1161.80 with a change of 12.76 [4] - Gold ETF's latest holding is 996.85 with a change of -3.72 [4] - Silver ETF's latest holding is 15469.12 with a change of 0.00 [4] - SGE Silver's latest inventory is 1248.26 with a change of 0.00 [4] - SGE Gold's latest deferred fee payment direction is 2 with a change of 0.00 [4] - SGE Silver's latest deferred fee payment direction is 1 with a change of 0.00 [4]