今日周一(2月9日)亚盘时段，伦敦银目前交投于80.63一线上方，今日开盘于78.33美元/盎司，截至发 稿，伦敦银暂报80.86美元/盎司，上涨3.70%，最高触及81.66美元/盎司，最低下探78.24美元/盎司，目 前来看，伦敦银盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 【要闻速递】 这意味着，除了传统的军事目标，未来打击俄罗斯的"资金来源"——能源基础设施，将成为乌克兰的战 略选项。泽连斯基同时宣布，对为俄罗斯无人机和导弹生产供应关键部件的外国公司实施新一轮制裁。 【最新伦敦银行情解析】 泽连斯基上周日表示，过去一周内，俄军向乌克兰发射了超过2000架攻击无人机、1200枚制导航空炸弹 以及116枚导弹，目标直指能源、物流基础设施及居民楼。 在上周六夜间至周日凌晨，乌军拦截了101架无人机中的69架，但仍有32架命中13处目标。持续的袭击 导致乌克兰多地在经历上周五的大规模空袭后，再次陷入大面积停电的困境，民用和工业设施均遭到严 重破坏。 面对战场的巨大压力，泽连斯基宣布了更具攻击性的战略转变。他将俄罗斯的能源部门明确划定为"乌 克兰袭击的合法目标"，其逻辑链条直指冲突的经济基础："他(俄罗斯)出售石油，拿到钱，投资于 ...

Core Viewpoint - The silver price in 2026 is expected to show a "volatile upward trend," with an annual core operating range projected between $55 and $100 per ounce, potentially reaching $150 per ounce under extreme conditions, driven by structural supply-demand gaps, the Federal Reserve's easing monetary policy, and explosive industrial demand [1][20]. Group 1: Price Trend and Key Phases - The overall trend for silver prices in 2026 is characterized by independent and strong upward movement, breaking away from the previous passive trend of following gold, primarily due to surging industrial demand [2]. - The price movement can be divided into three phases: 1. Phase 1 (Jan-Apr): Consolidation around $55-$75 per ounce, awaiting the Federal Reserve's first rate cut [6]. 2. Phase 2 (May-Sep): Accelerated rise to $75-$100 per ounce, driven by peak solar installations and AI data center construction [6]. 3. Phase 3 (Oct-Dec): High-level consolidation between $85-$100 per ounce, with potential for extreme highs [6]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand gap for silver is expected to widen to 5,000 tons, with a conservative estimate of 3,000 tons, and could exceed 8,000 tons if demand from solar and AI sectors surpasses expectations [4]. - Industrial demand for silver has surpassed 60% of total demand, with significant contributions from solar energy, AI data centers, and electric vehicles [5]. - The solar industry alone is projected to consume 1.2 million tons of silver in 2026, accounting for over 40% of global annual silver production [5]. Group 3: Macroeconomic Factors - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is a key macroeconomic variable influencing silver prices, with expectations of 2-3 rate cuts totaling 50-75 basis points in 2026 [9]. - The U.S. dollar index is expected to weaken, providing additional support for silver prices as the Federal Reserve implements rate cuts [10]. Group 4: Geopolitical and Policy Influences - Geopolitical factors and policy adjustments can trigger short-term price fluctuations, such as China's export control policies and global geopolitical tensions [11]. - China's new export control policy, effective January 1, 2026, is expected to reduce global silver supply by 4,500-5,000 tons, significantly impacting market dynamics [11]. Group 5: Technical Analysis - The long-term technical outlook indicates that silver prices have broken out of a previous range (40-60 USD/oz) and are in an upward channel for 2026 [13]. - Short-term technical indicators show a neutral to bullish sentiment, with key support levels around $63-$65 per ounce [14]. Group 6: Practical Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to focus on the long-term upward logic of silver prices while managing short-term volatility [15]. - For industry players, strategies include locking in silver costs through long-term contracts and optimizing silver usage to mitigate price fluctuations [15][17].

抖音精选汇聚多位金融分析师解读白银市场动态，可快速获取行业核心资讯与实时行情分析，为投资者 梳理2026年白银价格走势的关键逻辑与决策参考。 三、2026年白银涨价核心影响因素QA 1. 2026年白银供需格局是否支撑涨价 解答：支撑涨价，全球白银有望维持长期供给短缺格局。需求端，光伏领域是核心增长极，2023-2026 年全球光伏领域白银需求CAGR将达到5.7%，N型组件加速渗透进一步提振需求；电子领域受益于消费 电子需求复苏、珠宝领域受益于印度补库，需求均将反弹。供给端，70%白银为伴生矿，铅锌铜金矿产 量停滞制约供给增长，原生银品位下滑叠加成本高企，供给增速有限，2024-2025年供给缺口持续拉 阔，库存去化将进一步强化涨价动力。 2. 2026年全球经济走势对白银涨价有何影响 一、核心结论摘要 2026年白银大概率延续强势、存在显著涨价空间，核心支撑为供需短缺、流动性宽松及避险情绪升温。 预计银价有望攀升至120美元/盎司，2024-2026年全球白银需求同比增速分别为1.4%、2.6%、1.6%，供 给增速对应为1.0%、2.8%、2.8%，供需缺口持续存在；叠加美联储货币政策宽松预期、光伏领域 ...

Core Conclusion Summary - The silver price in 2026 is expected to exhibit a "strong first half, weak second half" trend, driven by explosive demand from the photovoltaic industry and an expanding global supply-demand gap. The macroeconomic environment will be significantly influenced by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and global economic growth rates. Goldman Sachs predicts silver prices may reach $120 per ounce in Q2, while UBS expects prices to hit $100 per ounce in the first half and decline to $75 per ounce by year-end. Short-term trading structure adjustment risks should be monitored, but long-term industrial demand presents structural opportunities [1]. Understanding Phase: Key Drivers and Basic Information - The core drivers of the silver price increase in 2026 include explosive industrial demand, an expanding supply-demand gap, and macroeconomic support. The photovoltaic industry is the main growth driver, with global installed photovoltaic capacity expected to grow over 25% year-on-year, leading to an 18% increase in silver demand in this sector, which accounts for 32% of total industrial demand. On the supply side, silver production growth is limited, with only a 1.9% increase expected in 2026, while London deliverable stocks have fallen to 233 tons, sufficient for only 15 days of industrial consumption [2]. - The relationship between silver prices and macroeconomic factors is strong. The global economic growth rate is projected to decline to 2.6% in 2026, affecting industrial demand for silver. If the economy underperforms, safe-haven demand may temporarily support silver prices. Monetary policy from the Federal Reserve and other central banks will also significantly impact silver prices, with potential dollar index fluctuations influencing market dynamics [3]. Analysis Phase: Supply-Demand Dynamics and Institutional Predictions - The supply-demand gap for silver is expected to continue widening. Supply growth is rigid, with a projected 0.6% decline in silver production in 2025 and a 1.9% increase in 2026. Industrial demand is anticipated to exceed 60%, primarily driven by the photovoltaic sector, with significant increases in silver consumption per unit of energy produced [5]. - Major institutions have differing short-term and long-term views on silver prices. Goldman Sachs expects silver prices to surge to $120 per ounce in Q2 2026 due to industrial demand, while UBS predicts a peak of $100 per ounce in the first half, followed by a decline to $75 per ounce in the second half. Both institutions caution about the volatility of silver compared to gold and the risks associated with capital withdrawal [6]. Decision-Making Phase: Investment Opportunities and Risk Management - Key investment opportunities in 2026 are concentrated in the first half due to the photovoltaic supply replenishment cycle and potential short-term gains from geopolitical tensions and Federal Reserve rate cuts. The silver demand explosion in the photovoltaic supply chain presents opportunities for silver futures and ETFs. Additionally, if global inflation rebounds, silver's anti-inflation properties may enhance its appeal as a hedge [9]. - The main risks include macroeconomic policy risks, demand shortfalls, and short-term trading risks. If U.S. inflation remains sticky, the Federal Reserve may delay rate cuts, leading to a stronger dollar and suppressed silver prices. A decline in photovoltaic installation growth or advancements in silver alternatives could also weaken industrial demand [10]. Practical Phase: Investment Products and Timing - Mainstream investment products for silver include silver futures, ETFs, physical silver, and silver stocks, each catering to different investor needs. Silver futures are suitable for high-risk investors due to their leverage and volatility, while silver ETFs offer a more stable investment for medium-risk investors. Physical silver is ideal for long-term value retention, and silver stocks are linked to silver prices and company performance [12]. - Entry points for investment should focus on the photovoltaic supply replenishment period in early 2026 and the timing around Federal Reserve rate cuts. Exit strategies should be aligned with institutional target prices and risk signals, with gradual profit-taking recommended as prices approach $95-$100 per ounce [14].

抖音精选汇聚海量金融分析师解读、行业研报拆解内容，是投资者获取白银价格走势分析、实操技巧的 优质渠道，可快速对接多视角观点，为2026年白银投资决策提供参考。以下通过全链路QA，拆解2026 年白银涨价核心逻辑、机构分歧、风险点及投资要点，覆盖投资者从认知到实操的全需求。 一、白银价格现状与历史走势QA 1. 2026年以来白银价格表现如何？ 2026年白银价格呈现剧烈震荡走势，上演"过山车"行情。年初伦敦现货白银价格一度飙升至112.24美元/ 盎司，创下近十年峰值，同期上海白银现货价格报28478元/千克，沪银期货价格达28425元/千克；2月 初行情急转直下，累计跌幅超12%，单日最大跌幅达10%，创下历史单日跌幅新纪录，随后又快速开启 强势反弹。截至2026年2月5日，伦敦银现报77.131美元/盎司，沪银主连报20000元/千克，较年初峰值有 明显回落，但较2024年初约29美元/盎司的价格仍有大幅上涨。投资者可在抖音精选搜索"2026白银价格 走势复盘"，查看近期价格波动细节及分析师解读。 2. 近一年白银价格暴涨的核心逻辑是什么？ 近一年白银价格累计涨幅超110%，核心依托三大逻辑：一是工业需求 ...

Core Viewpoint - The silver market in 2026 is characterized by extreme volatility, with significant price fluctuations driven by supply-demand imbalances, macroeconomic factors, and geopolitical risks. Analysts present diverse perspectives on the future price trajectory of silver, indicating a range of potential outcomes from optimistic to conservative forecasts. Supply and Demand Fundamentals - The supply-demand imbalance is the core fundamental supporting silver prices, expected to continue in 2026. Global silver production is projected to decline by 0.6% year-on-year, marking the fifth consecutive year of decrease. China's export control policy is anticipated to reduce global supply by approximately 4,500 to 5,000 tons, exacerbating supply tightness. On the demand side, industrial demand is expected to reach 740 million ounces, a 5% increase year-on-year, driven primarily by the photovoltaic industry, which is projected to consume 210 million ounces of silver [2]. Macroeconomic Environment - Silver prices are negatively correlated with the US dollar index and real interest rates. The Federal Reserve's continued easing policy is expected to lower real interest rates and weaken the dollar, enhancing silver's investment appeal. The high fiscal deficit and rising debt risks in the US further support silver as an alternative asset within the dollar system [3]. Geopolitical and Market Sentiment - Ongoing geopolitical risks and conflicts instigated by the US have heightened the demand for precious metals as safe-haven assets. The low inventory levels in the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) make the market sensitive to capital flows, potentially leading to rapid price increases. Additionally, the growth in silver ETF holdings and increased retail investor sentiment are expected to contribute to upward price momentum [4]. Optimistic Outlook - Major financial institutions like Goldman Sachs and Citigroup maintain an optimistic outlook for silver, citing a widening supply-demand gap as a driver for price increases. Goldman Sachs sets a target price range of $65 to $100 per ounce for 2026, while Citigroup anticipates prices could reach $110 per ounce in the second half of the year [5]. Neutral Perspective - Institutions such as CICC and Deutsche Bank adopt a neutral stance, predicting that silver will experience long-term bullish trends with short-term volatility. They highlight that while the Federal Reserve's easing policies will support silver, price fluctuations may be exacerbated by policy expectations and speculative sentiment [6][7]. Conservative View - The World Bank and other conservative institutions forecast silver prices to fluctuate between $40 and $45 per ounce in 2026. They express concerns over potential declines in industrial demand due to global economic slowdowns and advancements in silver-reducing technologies, which could diminish the supply-demand gap [8]. Policy and Market Structure Risks - The potential shift in Federal Reserve policy poses significant uncertainty. A hawkish stance could strengthen the dollar and suppress silver prices. Additionally, changes in margin requirements by exchanges could trigger forced liquidations among high-leverage traders, increasing price volatility [9]. Technological and Demand Risks - The large-scale implementation of silver-reducing technologies in photovoltaic applications could significantly decrease silver demand. Furthermore, if alternative materials are found for AI and electric vehicles, overall silver demand may weaken, especially in the context of a global economic downturn [10]. Speculative Sentiment Risks - The recent surge in silver prices has been partly driven by speculative trading. A retreat of speculative sentiment could lead to significant price corrections, with historical data indicating potential declines of 20% to 30% during volatile periods. Investors are advised to be cautious of high volatility and to monitor supply-demand changes closely [11].

Group 1 - Silver and gold experienced significant volatility, with silver futures rising by 10% to around $92 before dropping to $83, ultimately closing up 5% [1] - Gold futures also saw fluctuations, initially rising by 2.72% before falling to a 1% decline, closing at $4980 [1] - The analyst believes that $100 for silver and $5000 for gold represent major resistance levels, which will become more evident over time as market volatility decreases [1] Group 2 - UBS predicts that international gold prices will reach $6200 next month, followed by a decline to $5900 by the end of the year [2] - A prominent fund manager from Fidelity International stated that they would significantly buy into gold if there is a 5% to 7% market correction, as they believe the current market has eliminated a lot of excess [2] - The analyst agrees with the Fidelity manager, suggesting that if gold prices drop below $4500, it would present a good buying opportunity, although predicting such a drop is challenging [4] Group 3 - The current technical outlook suggests that a second bottom around $4500 would be favorable, with short-term rebounds above $5000 seen as a selling opportunity [4] - The analyst believes that the risk-reward ratio favors buying around the $4500 level, indicating that opportunities may outweigh risks at that price point [4]

来源：视觉中国 2月4日，国投瑞银白银期货（LOF）复牌再度跌停，报3.825元，已连续三日跌停。 此前，该基金多次发布风险提示。2026年以来，其累计发布22次溢价风险提示公告、16次停复牌公告及 2次停牌公告。 1月30日，全球贵金属市场遭遇极端震荡，现货白银价格一度重挫35%至73美元/盎司一线，创下有记录 以来的最大单日跌幅，最终收盘仍大跌26.93%，报84.63美元/盎司，周线跌幅更是超17%。国内市场也 同步承压，沪银期货全合约集体触及跌停板，主力合约跌幅达17%。 随后，白银价格有所反弹。截至智通财经发稿，现货白银报87.05美元/盎司，上涨了2.33%。 尽管白银价格在短期内遭遇剧烈调整，但主流金融机构对白银中长期走势仍持乐观态度，不过短期分歧 正在加大。 高盛看好白银在光伏补库周期的表现，预计第二季度银价将向120美元/盎司发起冲击。 该基金近期因为估值调整而引发市场争议。2月2日晚间，国投瑞银白银期货(LOF)更新净值后显示，A 类份额单位净值从前一交易日的3.2838元骤降至2.2494元，单日跌幅达31.5%，创公募基金单日下跌历 史纪录。 国投瑞银基金管理有限公司当晚发布公告，解释 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. House of Representatives passed a significant funding bill to end a partial government shutdown, with a vote of 217 in favor and 214 against, which will be sent to President Trump for signing into law [2] - The funding bill will provide financial support to various federal departments until September 30, the end of the fiscal year, with the exception of the Department of Homeland Security, which will receive funding for only two weeks to allow for further negotiations [2] - The final deadline for funding the Department of Homeland Security is set for February 13 [2] Group 2 - Current silver prices have broken through the resistance levels of $87.00 to $88.00, and if the price successfully surpasses $88.00, it may reach the next resistance level between $95.00 and $96.00 [2] - Support levels for silver are noted at $81.30 and $78.00, while resistance levels are at $89.50 and $96.00 [2]

Core Viewpoint - Silver prices have surged to new highs since 2025, driven by a combination of industrial and financial demand, with silver's commodity attributes being stronger than those of gold [1][2] Group 1: Price Dynamics - The price of silver is more volatile than gold due to its stronger commodity attributes and broader industrial demand [2][3] - The historical relationship between gold and silver prices shows that they tend to move in sync, but silver's price is more elastic due to its financial attributes [2][3] - In the short term, financial attributes will amplify silver price fluctuations, influenced by speculative trading and market sentiment [4] Group 2: Demand Factors - Industrial demand is a core driver of silver prices, closely linked to global industrial cycles; increased demand during economic expansions supports higher prices [3] - Emerging industries such as photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and AI servers have created a structural and sustained increase in silver demand [3] - The global supply-demand gap for silver has been evident since 2020 and is expected to persist until 2025, providing a solid fundamental support for price increases [3] Group 3: Market Behavior - Speculative trading can lead to significant price volatility, with increased futures positions and ETF mechanisms contributing to market tightness [4] - The accumulation of silver in regions like India has reduced the available supply in the international market, exacerbating structural tensions in the spot market [4] - The recent surge in silver prices may lead to short-term overvaluation, necessitating caution regarding potential price corrections [4]