光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 08 月 26 日） 一、研究观点 光大期货金融期货日报 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 1 | 品种 | 点评 昨日，A 股市场放量上涨，Wind 全 A 上涨 1.8%，成交额 3.18 万亿元。中证 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 1000 指数上涨 1.56%，中证 500 指数上涨 1.89%，沪深 300 指数上涨 2.08%， | | | | 上证 50 指数上涨 2.09%。美联储会议表态偏鸽，市场计价年内多次降息，A | | | | 股同样受益。此外，上海调整住房限购政策、公积金贷款政策和商业住房贷 | | | | 款利率定价机制，扩大潜在购房需求，地产银行板块上涨。此前，中共中央 | | | 股指 | 办公厅、国务院办公厅印发了《育儿补贴制度实施方案》，标志着育儿补贴 | 震荡 | | | 制度正式在全国范围内落地。这是我国近年来第一次发布普惠型中央财政政 | | | | 策，尽管总量仍有提升空间，但对于提升居民端收益水平影响较为直接。预 | | | | 计未来通过央行购买国债为中央政 ...

Group 1 - The national childcare subsidy system will officially launch on January 1, 2025, providing an annual subsidy of 3,600 yuan per child until the age of three, applicable to families with one, two, or three children [2][3] - Various regions are set to open the application process for the childcare subsidy by the end of August 2023, with a unified online application system established for both resident and migrant populations [2][3] - The subsidy aims to alleviate the financial burden of raising children and is expected to positively impact birth rates, as experts believe it will help reduce fertility anxiety and encourage families to have more children [3][4] Group 2 - The implementation of the childcare subsidy is part of a broader strategy to support families, which includes additional measures in education, childcare, and healthcare [4] - Starting from the fall semester of 2025, the government plans to gradually implement free preschool education, which will further reduce the economic burden on families with young children [4]

Core Points - The trial operation of the childcare subsidy system has begun, with "childcare subsidy" mini-programs launched on Alipay and WeChat, allowing users to submit applications [1] - Feedback from users indicates that the application process is straightforward, requiring parents to prepare necessary documents such as birth certificates and household registration [4] Summary by Sections - **Implementation of Childcare Subsidy**: The "National Childcare Subsidy Implementation Plan" states that starting from January 1, 2025, a subsidy of 3,600 yuan per child per year will be provided for children under three years old who meet legal requirements. The subsidy will be exempt from personal income tax, with local health departments handling tax exemption applications [6] - **System Development and Testing**: The national and local governments have completed the construction of the childcare subsidy information management system and are currently conducting full-process testing. Applications for the subsidy will be opened in late August, with specific dates announced for different regions [6][7] - **Regional Application Dates**: Regions such as Gansu and Hubei have announced their application opening dates, with Gansu set to launch on August 26 and Hubei on August 27 [7] - **Eligibility Concerns**: There are ongoing discussions regarding the eligibility of non-marital children for the childcare subsidy, with current requirements indicating that a marriage certificate is necessary for application. However, formal application processes have not yet begun [7]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The recent rise in the stock market is mainly due to three logics: long - term, the market anticipates more fiscal policies to promote consumption and a recovery in domestic inflation after the easing of Sino - US relations, with foreign capital flowing in and usually buying large - cap growth stocks; medium - term, the anti - involution trend and infrastructure investment on the demand side benefit upstream cyclical sectors; short - term, the capital market has relatively abundant liquidity due to RMB appreciation under a weak US dollar and improved corporate deposit and loan data [1]. - For treasury bond futures, in the short term, the bond market is under pressure due to the recovery of risk appetite, but with no significant changes in the capital and fundamental aspects, it should be treated with a volatile mindset in the long term [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Research Views - **Stock Index**: On August 20, 2025, the A - share market fluctuated and rose, with the Wind All - A index up 0.97% and a trading volume of 2.45 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and SSE 300 indices also increased. Personal consumption loan subsidy policies and the implementation of the parenting subsidy system are expected to drive inflation recovery through more inclusive fiscal support. The market is expected to show a volatile trend [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On August 20, 2025, treasury bond futures closed lower. The central bank conducted 616 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 497.5 billion yuan. Short - term, the bond market is under pressure due to risk appetite recovery, and should be treated with a volatile mindset in the long term [3]. Daily Price Changes - **Stock Index Futures**: On August 20, 2025, compared with the previous day, IH, IF, IC, and IM all increased, with increases of 1.27%, 1.28%, 1.44%, and 1.37% respectively [4]. - **Stock Indices**: On August 20, 2025, compared with the previous day, the SSE 50, SSE 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices all increased, with increases of 1.23%, 1.14%, 1.09%, and 0.86% respectively [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On August 20, 2025, compared with the previous day, TS, TF, T, and TL all decreased, with decreases of - 0.01%, - 0.16%, - 0.19%, and - 0.42% respectively [4]. Market News - On August 20, 2025, the 1 - year LPR was 3.00% and the 5 - year LPR was 3.50%, both remaining unchanged from the previous month [5]. Chart Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: The report provides charts of the trends and basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM contracts, as well as the trends of the SSE 50, SSE 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices [7][8][9][10]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report provides charts of the trends, basis, inter - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates of treasury bond futures [13][15][16][17]. - **Exchange Rates**: The report provides charts of the central parity rates of the US dollar, euro against the RMB, and forward exchange rates, as well as the US dollar index and exchange rates between major currencies [20][21][22][24][25]. Member Introduction - Zhu Jintao, a master of economics from Jilin University, is the director of macro - financial research at Everbright Futures Research Institute [27]. - Wang Dongying, an index analyst with a master's degree from Columbia University, mainly tracks stock index futures [27].

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced that starting from January 1, 2025, childcare subsidies will be exempt from personal income tax [1] - The childcare subsidy system aims to support families in raising infants and toddlers, alleviating the financial burden on them [3] - The subsidy standard is set at 3,600 yuan per child per year, with a total of 10,800 yuan available for eligible children born on or after January 1, 2025 [3] Group 2 - Local governments are currently preparing to implement the childcare subsidy system, with applications expected to open in late August 2023 [4] - Parents or guardians can apply for the subsidy online through platforms like Alipay and WeChat, or in person at local government offices [5][7] - The central government has allocated approximately 90 billion yuan for the subsidy program, with the central finance covering about 90% of the funding needed for the basic standard subsidy [8] Group 3 - The exemption of personal income tax on childcare subsidies is seen as a significant measure to increase disposable income for families and reduce their economic burden [8] - A multi-departmental information-sharing mechanism will be established to streamline the application process and enhance policy execution efficiency [8]

Market Performance - On August 20, 2025, A-shares saw all three major indices rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 1.04%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 0.89%, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.23% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was approximately 24082.34 billion yuan, a decrease of about 1801.35 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - Hong Kong stocks opened lower but turned positive in the afternoon, with the Hang Seng Index closing up 0.17% or 43.04 points at 25165.94 points, and a total trading volume of 2852.86 billion HKD [1] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose by 0.08% to 9013.27 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 0.01% to 5541.27 points [1] - In the US market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 16.04 points to 44938.31 points, a rise of 0.04%, while the S&P 500 fell by 15.59 points to 6395.78 points, a decline of 0.24%, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped by 142.09 points to 21172.86 points, a decrease of 0.67% [1] Important News - On August 20, 2025, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced that child-rearing subsidies issued according to the child-rearing subsidy system will be exempt from personal income tax [2] - The announcement aims to implement the "Implementation Plan for Child-Rearing Subsidy System" issued by the Central Office and the State Council [2] - An information-sharing mechanism will be established between health, finance, and taxation departments to facilitate tax exemption applications for eligible individuals starting from January 1, 2025 [2]

根据公告，卫生健康部门与财政部门、税务部门建立信息共享机制。县级卫生健康部门按规定为申领补 贴的人员办理个人所得税免税申报。公告自2025年1月1日起施行。 （文章来源：新华社） 为贯彻落实中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发的《育儿补贴制度实施方案》有关规定，财政部、国家 税务总局8月20日对外发布公告称，对按照育儿补贴制度规定发放的育儿补贴免征个人所得税。 根据《育儿补贴制度实施方案》有关规定，中国对符合法律法规规定生育的3周岁以下婴幼儿发放补 贴，至其年满3周岁。育儿补贴按年发放，现阶段国家基础标准为每孩每年3600元人民币。在最低生活 保障对象、特困人员等救助对象认定时，育儿补贴不计入家庭或个人收入。 ...

Domestic News - The State Council's office has forwarded the Ministry of Finance's guidance on standardizing the construction and operation of existing government and social capital cooperation (PPP) projects, emphasizing increased financial support for eligible ongoing projects. Local governments can utilize general and special bonds for government expenditures related to the construction costs of PPP projects [1] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced that childcare subsidies issued under the childcare subsidy system will be exempt from personal income tax, effective from January 1, 2025 [2] Financial Regulations - The Financial Regulatory Bureau is seeking public opinion on the draft of the "Commercial Bank Merger Loan Management Measures," which categorizes merger loans into control-type and equity participation-type loans, with specific conditions for each type [2] Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market experienced strong growth in the first half of 2025, with a total fundraising amount of HKD 109.4 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 716%. There are currently 207 listing applications being processed [4] Economic Data - The People's Bank of China announced that the loan market quotation rate (LPR) for one year remains at 3.0% and for five years or more at 3.5%, both unchanged [2] - The latest data from Japan shows a significant year-on-year decline in exports by 2.6% in July, marking the third consecutive month of negative growth [6]

免征个税。 财政部、税务总局近日发布公告称，为贯彻落实中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发的《育儿补贴制度实施方案》有关规定，现就育儿补贴有关个人所得税政策公告如 下： 一、对按照育儿补贴制度规定发放的育儿补贴免征个人所得税。 二、卫生健康部门与财政部门、税务部门建立信息共享机制。县级卫生健康部门按规定为申领补贴的人员办理个人所得税免税申报。 三、本公告自2025年1月1日起施行。 据了解，从2025年1月1日起，对符合法律法规规定生育的3周岁以下婴幼儿发放补贴，至其年满3周岁。育儿补贴按年发放，现阶段国家基础标准为每孩每年3600 元。 国家卫生健康委员会人口监测与家庭发展司司长王海东此前表示，目前和各地正在按照育儿补贴制度实施方案抓紧推进相关准备工作。各地要结合本地实际制定具 体的实施方案。国家和各地已经完成了育儿补贴信息管理系统的建设，现在正进行全流程的测试。各地将在8月下旬陆续开放育儿补贴申领，8月31日之前全面开放 育儿补贴申领。 综合自：财政部网站、证券时报此前报道 责编：李丹 校对：王朝全 版权声明 证券时报各平台所有原创内容，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载。我社保留追 究相关 行 为主体法律责任 ...

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as outperforming the market, with an expected relative increase of over 10% in the next six months compared to the market index [49]. Core Insights - In July 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods in China reached 38,780 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, which is an increase of 1.0 percentage points compared to the same month last year, although it represents a decline of 1.1 percentage points from June [2][13]. - The growth rate of commodity retail continues to decline, while the growth rate of catering revenue has slightly rebounded compared to the previous month [17]. - The performance of various consumer goods categories shows that home appliances and audio-visual equipment, as well as furniture, have seen significant growth, both exceeding 20% [3][21]. Summary by Sections Overall Performance - The total retail sales of consumer goods in July 2025 increased by 3.7% year-on-year, with a total of 38,780 billion yuan. The growth rate improved by 1.0 percentage points year-on-year but decreased by 1.1 percentage points month-on-month [2][13]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.5% year-on-year in July, up from 0.1% in June [14]. Segment Analysis - Among 16 categories of goods, three categories (oil and petroleum products, automobiles, and building and decoration materials) experienced negative growth, while the remaining categories showed positive growth. Notably, home appliances and audio-visual equipment, as well as furniture, demonstrated remarkable growth, both exceeding 20% [3][21]. - Essential goods such as grain and oil (+8.6%), daily necessities (+8.2%), and traditional Chinese and Western medicines (+0.1%) showed varying growth rates, with grain and oil experiencing a slight decline [21][23]. Online Retail Performance - From January to July 2025, the cumulative online retail sales reached 86,835 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.2%, accounting for 30.55% of total retail sales of consumer goods [40][42]. - The online retail sales of physical goods amounted to 70,790 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 6.3%, and specific categories such as food, clothing, and daily necessities saw growth rates of 14.7%, 1.7%, and 5.8%, respectively [40][44]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors such as food and beverages, social services, and retail, highlighting opportunities in the liquor industry, baby-related products, and domestic cosmetics brands due to favorable policies and market conditions [46][47]. - In the retail sector, the attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset is expected to increase, and domestic beauty brands are gaining market share, making them potential investment targets [47].