责编：叶舒筠 校对： 李凌锋 版权声明 证券时报各平台所有原创内容，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载。我社保留追 究相关 行 为主体 法律责任的权利。 根据台湾灾害应变中心最新消息，截至24日6时，台风"桦加沙"造成台湾14人死亡、多人失联、18人受 伤、上百人受困等待救援。 台湾地区气象部门21日发布台风"桦加沙"海上陆上台风警报，22日暴风圈进入台湾台东、恒春半岛与屏 东地区，23日中午前脱离暴风圈，23日晚间解除海上台风警报。"桦加沙"外围环流持续影响台湾东部、 北部及南部沿海区域，带来强降雨。根据灾害应变中心23日晚间统计，台湾撤离人数达7904人，其中花 莲5349人、高雄市1866人，花莲主要集中在光复乡、凤林镇与万荣乡，共有1837户、8524人受影响需 安置或避难。 花莲县马太鞍溪堰塞湖23日下午溢堤，大量洪水冲断马太鞍溪桥，光复乡淹水灾情惨重。光复乡、万荣 乡及凤林镇等三乡镇共12个村里、约1800户居民于22日被强制疏散撤离。屏东山区撤离145人，路段积 水、边坡土石滑落等状况时有发生。 此外，"桦加沙"造成台湾14017户停电，待修复2015户，其中花莲县曾停电户数为2871户、待修 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the severe impact of Typhoon "Haikui" on Taiwan, resulting in casualties, injuries, and significant infrastructure damage, necessitating emergency responses and evacuations [1][2]. Group 1: Casualties and Damage - As of 6 AM on the 24th, Typhoon "Haikui" has caused 14 deaths, multiple missing persons, 18 injuries, and hundreds trapped awaiting rescue in Taiwan [1]. - The storm led to the evacuation of 7,904 individuals, with the majority from Hualien County (5,349) and Kaohsiung City (1,866) [1]. Group 2: Infrastructure Impact - The typhoon resulted in power outages affecting 14,017 households, with 2,015 still awaiting repairs, particularly in Hualien County where 2,871 households experienced outages [1]. - Water supply disruptions impacted 4,378 households, and there are currently 51 locations experiencing flooding, with 46 still inundated [1]. Group 3: Weather Warnings - The Taiwan Meteorological Department issued ongoing heavy rain alerts, particularly for Hualien County and Taitung, with warnings of localized heavy rainfall in various regions [2].

Core Insights - The report highlights the significant impact of natural disasters in China during July 2025, primarily due to floods and geological disasters, resulting in substantial human and economic losses [1] Group 1: Flood and Geological Disasters - In July, extreme rainfall led to 10 regional heavy rain events, with northern regions suffering severe flooding and geological disasters, particularly in Shandong, Jilin, and Liaoning, affecting 11.9 million people and causing direct economic losses of 26.5 billion yuan [2] - The cumulative rainfall in certain areas exceeded 400 mm, leading to significant flooding in Beijing and surrounding provinces, with 89.4 million people affected and direct economic losses of 445 billion yuan [2] Group 2: Wind and Hail Disasters - Eight regional strong convective weather events occurred, impacting 23 provinces, with significant damage reported in Inner Mongolia and Yunnan, resulting in 103.4 million people affected and direct economic losses of 43.1 billion yuan [3] Group 3: Typhoon Activity - Seven typhoons were generated in July, with three making landfall in China, causing a total of 31.4 billion yuan in direct economic losses and affecting 151.6 million people [4] Group 4: Drought Conditions - Drought conditions developed in the Huanghuai and Jianghuai regions, with some areas experiencing over 50% less rainfall than usual, affecting 49.5 million people and resulting in direct economic losses of 1.9 billion yuan [5][6] Group 5: Earthquake and Fire Activity - Earthquake activity was notably lower, with only four significant earthquakes recorded, and no major damage reported, while forest fire incidents remained stable with only six fires occurring [7]

Group 1: Overview of Natural Disasters in July 2025 - In July 2025, natural disasters in China primarily consisted of floods and geological disasters, with a total of 8.918 million people affected and direct economic losses amounting to 52.15 billion yuan [1] - The month saw significant rainfall events, with 10 regional heavy rain processes occurring, leading to severe flooding in northern regions [1][2] Group 2: Flood and Geological Disasters - The extreme rainfall resulted in severe flooding and geological disasters, particularly in Shandong, Jilin, and Liaoning, affecting 1.194 million hectares of crops and causing direct economic losses of 44.5 billion yuan [1][2] - A total of 586,500 people were affected by flooding and geological disasters, with 293 reported missing or deceased [1] Group 3: Wind and Hail Disasters - Eight regional strong convective weather events occurred, impacting 23 provinces and causing 1.034 million people to be affected, with direct economic losses of 4.31 billion yuan [2] - Inner Mongolia and Yunnan experienced significant agricultural losses, with affected crop areas totaling 185,000 hectares [2] Group 4: Typhoon Activity - In July, seven typhoons were generated in the Northwest Pacific and South China Sea, with three making landfall in China, resulting in direct economic losses of 3.14 billion yuan [3] - The typhoons affected 1.516 million people, with significant impacts on infrastructure and agriculture in Guangdong and other provinces [3] Group 5: Drought Conditions - Drought conditions developed in the Huanghuai and Jianghuai regions, with some areas experiencing over 50% less rainfall than usual, affecting crop growth [4] - The drought impacted 495,000 people, with direct economic losses of 190 million yuan [4] Group 6: Seismic and Fire Activity - Seismic activity in July was notably lower, with only four earthquakes of magnitude 4.0 or higher recorded, and no significant damage reported [5] - There were six forest fires reported, all caused by lightning strikes, with no grassland fires occurring [5]

Core Points - A mudslide in Tuanjie Village, Ning'er, Yunnan, caused by heavy rainfall, has resulted in 3 deaths and 1 missing person [1] - Local villagers reported severe weather conditions prior to the incident, including thunderstorms and significant property damage [1] - Emergency response efforts are underway, with 23 households and 58 individuals being relocated for safety [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The copper market presents a complex situation with a mix of neutral, bearish, and bullish factors. The copper price is expected to experience oscillatory adjustments due to factors such as a slowdown in Fed rate - cuts, rising inventories, ongoing geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption during the off - season [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Smelting enterprises are reducing production, and the scrap copper policy has been relaxed. In June, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, unchanged from the previous month, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment (neutral) [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 79,535, with a basis of 285, showing a premium over futures (neutral) [3]. - **Inventory**: On July 25, copper inventories increased by 3,700 to 128,475 tons, and SHFE copper inventories decreased by 11,133 tons to 74,423 tons compared to the previous week (neutral) [3]. - **Market trend**: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving downward (bearish) [3]. - **Main positions**: The main net positions are long, and the long positions are increasing (bullish) [3]. - **Expectation**: With a slowdown in Fed rate - cuts, rising inventories, geopolitical disturbances, and weak consumption during the off - season, the copper price will undergo oscillatory adjustments [3]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely factors**: Domestic policy easing and trade - war escalation are the influencing logics, but specific利多 and利空 factors are not elaborated [4]. Supply - Demand Balance - The supply - demand situation in 2024 shows a slight surplus, and it will be in a tight balance in 2025 [21]. - The China annual supply - demand balance table shows production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance from 2018 to 2024. For example, in 2024, production is 12.06 million tons, imports are 3.73 million tons, exports are 0.46 million tons, apparent consumption is 15.34 million tons, actual consumption is 15.23 million tons, and there is a supply surplus of 0.11 million tons [23]. Other Information - **Spot**: Information on spot prices includes place, mid - price, price changes, and inventory types, but specific data is not filled in [7]. - **Exchange Inventory**: The report mentions exchange inventory, but no detailed analysis is provided [13]. - **Bonded Area Inventory**: Bonded area inventories are rising from a low level [15]. - **Processing Fees**: Processing fees are declining [17].

Core Points - The Philippines has reported 30 fatalities and 7 missing persons due to the impact of Typhoons "Wipa," "Vansha," "Bamboo Grass," and the southwest monsoon [1] - Over 5.29 million people have been affected by the severe weather conditions [1] - Agricultural losses are estimated to exceed 760 million pesos (approximately 95 million RMB) [1] - Infrastructure damages are reported to be over 5 billion pesos (approximately 620 million RMB) [1] - A total of 154 municipalities across the Philippines have declared a state of disaster [1]

Group 1 - The G20 finance ministers and central bank governors face challenges including ongoing wars, geopolitical tensions, and trade disputes [1] - High levels of debt and frequent extreme weather events, as well as natural disasters, are significant concerns [1]

Core Insights - The report highlights the significant impact of natural disasters in China during the first half of 2025, with a total of 25.037 million people affected and direct economic losses amounting to 54.11 billion yuan [1][5][7]. Earthquake and Geological Disasters - A total of 57 earthquakes of magnitude 4.0 and above occurred, with the most severe being a 6.8 magnitude earthquake in Tibet on January 7, resulting in 126 deaths and direct economic losses of 8.945 billion yuan [3][4]. - Geological disasters, particularly landslides in Sichuan and Guizhou, resulted in 74 deaths, accounting for 88.1% of the national total, with direct economic losses of 280 million yuan [4]. Flood and Rainfall Impact - The southern regions experienced severe flooding, with 7.98 million people affected and direct economic losses of 30.39 billion yuan during significant rainfall events in June [6][5]. - The report noted that the flooding was particularly severe in provinces like Guizhou, Guangxi, Guangdong, and Hunan, which accounted for 74.5% of the national death toll and 84.3% of economic losses [6]. Drought Conditions - Drought conditions were reported across various regions, affecting 10.836 million people and resulting in direct economic losses of 4.37 billion yuan [7]. - The drought was exacerbated by lower than average rainfall and higher temperatures, impacting agricultural production [7]. Wind and Hail Damage - Wind and hail disasters were reported to be relatively mild, affecting 4.633 million people with direct economic losses of 7.15 billion yuan [8]. - The report indicated that while there were numerous incidents, the overall impact was less severe compared to previous years [8]. Forest Fires and Other Disasters - A total of 200 forest fires occurred, primarily in March and April, resulting in 2 deaths [9]. - Other disasters included coastal storm surges and wildlife attacks, which caused additional fatalities and economic losses [9].

Group 1: Production Safety Accidents - In the first half of the year, a total of 8,562 production safety accidents occurred, resulting in 8,079 deaths, representing a year-on-year decrease of 22.9% and 17.8% respectively [2] - Major accidents numbered 4 with 70 fatalities, showing a year-on-year decline of 20% and 25.5% respectively; significant accidents totaled 172 with 634 deaths, down 6.5% and 9.7% [2] - Despite the overall decline in accident numbers, certain regions and industries still face prominent safety issues, including major fire accidents in crowded places and illegal transportation in the transportation sector [2] Group 2: Natural Disasters - Various natural disasters affected 25.037 million people, with 307 reported deaths or missing persons, and 620,000 people were urgently relocated [3] - The direct economic loss from natural disasters reached 54.11 billion yuan, with significant damage to housing and agricultural land [3] - Key characteristics of natural disasters included a major earthquake in Tibet, a decrease in the number of significant earthquakes, and severe geological disasters in the southwest region [3]