综合来看，油脂市场多空并存，首先，美国生物柴油政策暂提供着重要长期支撑，当前预计2026年美国 生柴掺混义务量大幅增长，对油脂油料板块整体产生了一定的下方支撑，还需要紧盯美国RVO终案落 地进展。对于菜系方面，中加关系缓和，我国菜系原料供应紧张的格局面临被打破的格局，目前的变量 在于美加关系对我国菜系原料进口的影响，如果不出现较大变数，近强远弱的格局或逐渐形成，菜系上 方的压制力量不容忽视。棕榈油方面，马来最新的1月高频产量数据出现一定回落，但出口数据的环比 收紧幅度并不尽如人意，未来产地库存去化的节奏仍需进一步观察，如果产量降幅持续扩大，对油脂价 格的提振或逐渐明确。节后市场来看，假期期间原油价格的上行以及生柴政策可能出现进展的乐观预期 导致国内油脂油料节后开盘表现偏强。但目前基本面多空交织，提振力量能否支撑其持续上行，我们需 要等待美国生物柴油政策提供的油脂需求的中长期支撑最终落地，以及棕榈油产地基本面环比明显收 紧，才能给油脂多头更多的底气。 免责声明 本报告基于已公开的信息编制，我们力求信息及时、准确、完整，但不保证信息的绝对准确和完整。本 报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。投资 ...

Group 1 - Brett Ashcroft Green is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ advocating for early retirement through disciplined, tax-efficient investing [1] - He has a background in private credit and commercial real estate mezzanine financing, having worked as a business director at a large family office [1] - His experience includes working with high-net-worth and ultra-high-net-worth families across the U.S. and Asia, with significant time spent in China [1] - Brett is fluent in Mandarin Chinese and has served as a court interpreter, enhancing his ability to operate in business and legal settings [1] - He has collaborated with notable commercial real estate developers such as The Witkoff Group, Kushner Companies, The Durst Organization, and Fortress Investment Group [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The reported fourth quarter earnings per share (EPS) was $0.49, a significant decrease from $4.36 in the fourth quarter of 2024, impacted by unfavorable mark-to-market timing differences and notable items related to pension plan settlements and integration costs [10][11] - Adjusted EPS for the fourth quarter was $1.99, down from $2.13 in the prior year, while adjusted segment earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) increased to $756 million from $546 million year-over-year [11][14] - Net interest expense rose to $176 million, reflecting the addition of Viterra, despite lower average net interest rates [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the soybean processing and refining segment, results improved due to higher processing and refining outcomes in Argentina and Brazil, although North America saw lower results [11][12] - The soft seed processing and refining segment benefited from better average processing margins and the addition of Viterra's assets, with higher results in North America and Europe [12] - The grain merchandising and milling segment saw higher results driven by global wheat and barley, offset by lower results in corn and ocean freight, with increased volumes reflecting the expanded grain handling capabilities [13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The operating environment remains complex with geopolitical tensions and uncertainty around U.S. biofuel policy affecting farmer and consumer behavior [9][18] - The company expects full year 2026 adjusted EPS in the range of $7.50-$8, influenced by current market conditions and forward curves [9][18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on integrating Viterra to enhance operational efficiency and connectivity, aiming to unlock synergies in origination, merchandising, processing, and distribution [5][6] - Strategic investments are being made in large greenfield projects while navigating trade flows and geopolitical volatility [8][20] - The company aims to maintain a competitive advantage through improved logistics and better coordination across its global operations [6][20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges the complexity of the current environment with limited visibility, particularly regarding U.S. biofuel policy, but expresses confidence in the company's ability to adapt and succeed [9][21] - The integration of Viterra is expected to provide greater reach and insight into global flows, enhancing the company's capability to serve customers and manage risks [20] Other Important Information - The company generated over $1.7 billion of adjusted funds from operations, with approximately $1.25 billion of discretionary cash flow available after capital expenditures [14][15] - The adjusted return on invested capital (ROIC) was 8.1%, with an adjusted leverage ratio of 1.9 times at the end of the fourth quarter [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of RVO on margins and soybean crush operations - Management indicated that current guidance does not factor in potential changes from the Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO), but improvements in U.S. curves suggest a positive outlook for margins [24][26] Question: Earnings cadence for the year - The company anticipates a first half to second half earnings split of approximately 30/70, with Q1 expected to be lighter than usual due to market conditions [27][28] Question: Guidance methodology - Management confirmed that they used the same approach as previous quarters for guidance, relying on forward curves and market observations [34][35] Question: Crush margins and capacity - Management noted that while increased capacity is expected to drive demand, they cannot predict exact margin levels but remain optimistic about the biofuel policy's impact [39][41] Question: Synergies from Viterra integration - The company expects to realize about $190 million in synergies in 2026, ahead of schedule, with a run rate of approximately $220 million by year-end [51][56] Question: EPS guidance and market conditions - Management explained that the lower EPS guidance reflects full-year impacts from Viterra and ongoing market uncertainties, despite expected improvements in certain segments [58][62] Question: Capital expenditures and returns - The company plans to allocate approximately $1.5 billion to $1.7 billion in capital expenditures, with expectations for returns to materialize more significantly in 2027 [81]

Core Thesis - Darling Ingredients Inc. is well-positioned for growth due to favorable biofuel policy trends, which are expected to sustain strong demand and pricing for fats and used cooking oil [2] - The company is projected to generate total adjusted EBITDA of $1.4–$1.8 billion, with a significant contribution from its joint venture, Diamond Green Diesel [3] Financial Performance - Darling's trailing and forward P/E ratios are 54.88 and 11.07 respectively, indicating a potential undervaluation based on future earnings [1] - The enterprise value of Darling Ingredients is $8.8 billion, with a focus on deleveraging and capital returns [3] Policy Environment - The finalization of the Renewable Volume Obligation (RVO) and small refinery exemptions is expected to drive revaluation of feedstock and RIN prices, positively impacting Darling's operations [4] - A proposed 50% reduction in RINs for foreign feedstock and biodiesel has already increased domestic feedstock prices, which may benefit Darling's logistics and operational flexibility [4] Strategic Initiatives - The company plans to spin off its Food segment into a new joint venture, Nextida, which could significantly enhance EBITDA and market valuation [5] - The upcoming GLP-1-stimulating supplement line from Nextida is expected to double the joint venture's EBITDA from approximately $340 million, potentially exceeding 75% of Darling's market cap at peer multiples [5] Market Sentiment - The stock has appreciated by 2.54% since previous coverage, reflecting ongoing commodity headwinds, but the bullish thesis remains intact due to policy-driven tailwinds and the Nextida spin-off [6]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.92 and total segment operating profit of $845 million for Q3 2025 [4] - The trailing fourth quarter adjusted return on invested capital (ROIC) was 6.7% and cash flow from operations before working capital changes was $2.1 billion year to date [4][26] - The company revised its full year 2025 adjusted earnings per share expectations to a range of $3.25 to $3.5, down from approximately $4 per share [15][28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the Ag Services and Oilseeds (AS and O) segment, operating profit was $379 million, down 21% year-over-year [18] - The Ag Services sub-segment saw an operating profit of $190 million, an increase of 78% compared to the prior year quarter, driven by higher export activity [19] - The crushing sub-segment's operating profit was $13 million, down 93% from the prior year quarter due to significantly lower execution margins [20] - The Carbohydrate Solutions segment's operating profit was $336 million, down 26% year-over-year, primarily due to a decline in global demand for sweeteners and starches [22] - The Nutrition segment revenues were $1.9 billion, up 5% compared to the prior quarter, with operating profit of $130 million, up 24% year-over-year [24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved the best total export volume for September since 2016, which helped offset some weakness in the crush business [8] - The global demand for sweeteners and starches was lower, impacting volumes and margins, particularly in the EMEA region [22] - Ethanol export flows are projected to drive similar sequential demand throughout the fourth quarter, although margins are expected to be lower than previous highs [30] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on operational excellence, portfolio optimization, and cost savings, targeting $200 million to $300 million in cost savings for 2025 [11][28] - A joint venture with Alltech in Animal Nutrition aims to transition the business into higher-margin specialty ingredients, expected to commence operations in 2026 [11][50] - The company is investing in innovation, particularly in flavor systems for energy drinks and natural colors, as well as postbiotics [12][13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted a challenging industry-wide operating environment but remains optimistic about long-term growth driven by U.S. biofuel policy [5][15] - The company expects 2026 to offer a more constructive environment for the industry and American farmers, creating positive economic opportunities [16] - Management highlighted the importance of clarity on trade deals and biofuel policies for future performance [84][85] Other Important Information - The company has maintained a strong balance sheet and disciplined capital allocation, with a net leverage ratio of 1.8 times as of September [27] - The company continues to focus on improving working capital efficiency, having reduced inventory by $3.2 billion year to date [27] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you help reconcile the sequential decline in the third quarter for crush? - Management explained that the soybean board crush rallied sharply post-RVO announcements but has since moved lower due to various factors, including trade deal uncertainties and a decrease in U.S. acres [39][40] Question: Can you clarify the insurance gains? - Management confirmed that half of the insurance proceeds are expected to come from captive insurance and the other half from third parties, similar to the previous year [44] Question: What are the benefits of the joint venture with Alltech? - The joint venture aims to combine the strengths of both companies in the animal nutrition market, focusing on specialty ingredients and operational improvements [50][51] Question: How does the company view the clarity on biofuel policy? - Management expressed optimism that once policies are finalized, it will lead to increased demand for soybean oil and improved crush margins [56][58] Question: What is the outlook for Ag Services in Q4? - Management indicated that while Q3 was strong, Q4 may be softer due to uncertainties surrounding trade deals and farmer selling behavior [84][85]

Core Viewpoint - Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) has lowered its full-year 2025 profit outlook due to weaker crush margins and delays in U.S. biofuel policy, resulting in a nearly 11% drop in its shares during pre-market trading [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - ADM now anticipates adjusted earnings of $3.25 to $3.50 per share for 2025, a decrease from the previous forecast of around $4.00 and below analysts' estimate of $3.79 per share [4]. - The company reported an adjusted profit of 92 cents per share for the three months ending September 30, surpassing the average estimate of 85 cents [4]. Group 2: Market Challenges - The deferral of U.S. biofuel policy decisions, particularly regarding renewable fuel blending requirements, has led to reduced demand for soybean oil and other feedstocks, resulting in a 21% decline in operating profit to $379 million in the Ag Services and Oilseeds unit [2]. - Major agriculture processors, including ADM, are contending with volatile commodity cycles, soft crop prices, and uncertain energy policies [1]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite current challenges, the company anticipates that policy clarity and improving global trade flows will support growth in 2026, with expectations for biofuel policy clarity and trade policy evolution to provide demand signals for the industry [3].

Soybean Market & Trade - US biofuel policy is seen as a solution to absorb excess soybean production resulting from China's reduced demand for US soybeans [1] - The US soybean industry hopes trade negotiations will resume to restore access to the Chinese market [2] Industry Stance - The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) acknowledges the challenges faced by soybean farmers [1] - The American Soybean Association (ASA) remains optimistic about regaining access to the Chinese market [2]

Core Insights - The U.S. soybean industry is facing significant challenges due to retaliatory tariffs imposed by China, which have increased the overall duty rate on U.S. soybeans to 34% by 2025, making U.S. soybeans prohibitively expensive compared to South American supplies [1][2] - China has not purchased any U.S. soybeans for the 2025-26 marketing year, marking a drastic shift as it previously accounted for around 52% of U.S. soybean exports [3][12] - The U.S. is expected to lose soybean market share to South America permanently, as China increasingly sources soybeans from Brazil and Argentina due to lower prices [4][5] Tariffs and Market Dynamics - The combination of tariffs and trade wars has blunted the competitive advantage of U.S. soybean growers, leading to a significant decline in exports to China [2][3] - U.S. soybean prices have been negatively impacted, with current prices around $10.13 per bushel, down from profitable levels of $14 to $15 [16] Shifts in Supply Chains - China has been building its reserve storage of soybeans, allowing it to reduce reliance on U.S. supplies [7] - Investment in Brazil's agricultural infrastructure by China has facilitated increased soybean production there, further diminishing U.S. market share [8] Domestic Demand and Biofuel - The U.S. biofuel program may help replace some lost soybean demand, with biomass-diesel production rising significantly from 1,471.7 million gallons a decade ago to 4,292.4 million gallons in 2023 [10][11] - However, the U.S. will not be able to fully compensate for the lost demand from China through domestic biofuel policies alone, as it will take years to build the necessary infrastructure [11] Economic Impact on Farmers - The lack of Chinese purchases is expected to create substantial losses for U.S. farmers, leading to storage issues and financial strain [13][15] - Input costs for farming have been rising, further squeezing profit margins for farmers [17]

Industry Dynamics - US oil refiners find an ally in China against President Trump's biofuel policy changes [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The second quarter reported earnings per share (EPS) was $2.61 compared to $0.48 in the same quarter of 2024, reflecting a significant increase [13] - Adjusted EPS was $1.31 in the second quarter versus $1.73 in the prior year, indicating a decrease [14] - Adjusted segment earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) was $376 million in the quarter compared to $519 million last year [14] - The company maintained its full-year adjusted EPS outlook of approximately $7.75 for the legacy standalone Bunge, excluding the second half earnings from the corn milling business due to its sale [12][22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Processing results in South America, particularly Brazil and Argentina, were better than expected due to large soybean crops and farmer selling [11][15] - Fine and Specialty Oils were negatively impacted by uncertainty related to U.S. Biofuel policy, affecting performance across all regions [15] - Milling results improved in North America but were offset by lower results in South America [15] - Corporate expenses decreased primarily due to performance-based compensation [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Q2 margins in Brazil improved year over year, driven by a record bean crop, while margins in Argentina also showed improvement due to strong farmer selling [31] - In Europe, Q2 margins were good but down slightly from a strong prior year, with expectations of tougher conditions in the second half due to competing imports [33] - Q2 margins in China improved but were still slightly down from the prior year, with expectations for lower margins in the second half [33] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The completion of the combination with Viterra is seen as a pivotal moment, creating a premier agribusiness solutions company [5][10] - The company is focused on capturing cost savings and commercial opportunities post-merger, with a strong emphasis on integration planning [9][10] - The strategy includes ongoing portfolio optimization and leveraging synergies from the merger to enhance operational efficiencies [10][11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the future, citing a strong path ahead with the integration of Viterra and the potential for operational synergies [8][26] - The company is navigating a complex macro environment but believes its diversified asset base positions it well to capture value [24][25] - The outlook for 2025 includes expectations for improved processing results, particularly in Q4, driven by better crush margins [22][59] Other Important Information - The company generated $693 million of adjusted funds from operations year to date, with $560 million of discretionary cash flow available after capital expenditures [19] - The adjusted leverage ratio was 1.1 times at the end of the second quarter, indicating a strong liquidity position with $8.7 billion in committed credit facilities [20] - Following the merger with Viterra, S&P upgraded the company's credit rating to A minus, reflecting an improved business risk profile [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide details on soy crush performance and outlook? - Management noted that Q2 outperformance was driven by rising vegetable oil values and lower bean costs, with expectations for improved margins in Q4 [30][31] Question: What is the outlook for the SREs and their impact? - Management expects a decision on SREs in August or September, with a belief that the administration understands their potential impact on RVO [35][36] Question: Can you clarify the combined company guidance including Viterra? - Management emphasized the strategic rationale for the merger and expressed confidence in the combined company's ability to navigate market challenges [42][45] Question: What is the outlook for the oil segment? - The oil segment was impacted by lower energy demand and uncertainty around biofuels policy, but management expects improvement in the second half [61] Question: How are the organic investments progressing? - Key projects like Morristown and Destrehan are on track, with commissioning expected in Q4 and early next year [64][66] Question: What is the outlook for the milling side in the U.S.? - Demand for soybean meal remains strong, supported by good economics in the animal protein segment, with North America enhancing export capabilities [70][71] Question: How does the company view the interplay between SBO and other seed oils? - Management sees opportunities in offering a full suite of seed oils to customers, adapting to market demands [86] Question: What are the implications of recent global trade developments? - Management noted that China's actions reflect a focus on food security and a shift towards new import options, indicating a dynamic global market [92][93]