Good afternoon everyone. Who you are cannot be separated from where you come from. This is a powerful profound thought and quote from a book called Outliers by Malcolm Gladwell.What does it mean. Who you are cannot be separated from where you come from. Which means essentially your thought process has been already shaped from what you have seen, what you have heard, what you have learned and what you have perceived.Mostly your upbringing, your environment, your schooling, your memories. We are nothing but a ...

how this whole pattern is almost identical to what happened in the 1990s. >> You know, right now it feels like they're two opposite forces. One hand, people are talking about this AI bubble, potential crypto bare market.>> I've really enjoyed AI as far as whether it's a bubble or not. I mean, the thing about bubbles is even if you know, even if you knew for a fact we were in a bubble, it doesn't necessarily tell you how do you make money in the bubble. Because bubbles can last for years before they fully un ...

AI Impact on Economics - AI has a tremendous effect on economics, similar to historical periods of great inventions and changes like the 1920s [1] - AI represents a real productive shift and a significant change [1] Wealth Creation and Bubbles - The mechanism of wealth creation, the difference between wealth and money, and the formation and collapse of bubbles are discussed [3] - Wealth cannot be directly spent; it must be sold to obtain money for purchases [3] - Bubbles arise from creating needs for money, leading to a rise in wealth and a subsequent need to sell [4] - The current situation resembles another bubble scenario [4] Distinguishing Real vs Accounting Wealth - It is crucial to differentiate between real wealth and accounting wealth [4] - A common mistake is assuming that an asset's valuation is justified by its ability to produce income over time, which is not what creates bubbles [4]

“Bubbles are tricky things,” writes Byrne Hobart. “The default school of thought is that they’re driven by irresponsible speculators.” But the author argues that there is another way of looking at them https://t.co/WO06LqLwaW ...

Market Bubbles & Historical Parallels - The discussion highlights the analogous nature of historical financial crises, particularly the parallels between 1929, 2008, and the present day, emphasizing recurring patterns and potential lessons to be learned [2][3][4][5][25][29][89][90] - Easy credit, public excitement, and new technological miracles are identified as key ingredients that contribute to the formation of market bubbles [10][20][23][24][25][26][40][59] - The conversation draws comparisons between historical figures and contemporary counterparts, such as Charlie Mitchell (National City Bank) being likened to Jaime Diamond, Carter Glass to Elizabeth Warren, and John Rascob (General Motors) to Elon Musk, to illustrate recurring character types and roles in financial history [6][7][8][13][14] - The discussion points out that from 1928 to September 1929, the stock market rose by 90%, creating a "free money" environment for those buying stocks on margin [24] Regulatory Environment & Policy - The report emphasizes the importance of regulatory guardrails, such as the SEC and bank capital requirements, established post-1929, while expressing concern over the potential risks associated with new market products like SPACs, NFTs, and crypto, especially when private companies enter public markets with less disclosure [70][71][72][73][74][75][84][85] - The discussion highlights the cyclical nature of regulation, with restraints often being perceived as problems until after a crisis occurs, and the tendency to democratize finance by providing public access to opportunities previously limited to elites [75][76][77] - The conversation notes the difference between private and public markets, particularly regarding insider trading and disclosure requirements, raising concerns about the potential risks of public investment in private markets without adequate protections [73][74][84][85] Debt & Monetary Policy - The report identifies the growth of debt relative to money as a key factor in financial crises, with credit (debt) being used to fuel buying power beyond available money [62][63][64][65] - The discussion emphasizes the role of easy money policies as a "cure-all" for economic problems, while also acknowledging the potential for these policies to create new problems and lead to market pops when brakes are applied [39][40][41] - The conversation highlights the shift in debt burden from the private sector to the government sector, noting that while the debt has moved, it still exists and can lead to monetization [44][45] - The report mentions that in 2008, interest rates hit zero for the first time since 1933, leading the Fed to monetize debt, a similar action to 1933, but quicker [35]

Group 1: Market Trends and Investment Strategies - The article discusses the historical difficulty in identifying market bubbles in real-time, emphasizing the role of crowd behavior in driving prices to unsustainable levels [1] - Financial advisors are encouraged to act as behavioral coaches rather than mere forecasters, highlighting the importance of personal resilience during market volatility [2] - The oil market is currently oversupplied, with global inventories at near four-year highs, which is limiting the impact of sanctions on Russia [3] - The traditional 60/40 portfolio may not be sufficient to protect retirement savings from long-term stagnation in investment returns, referred to as the "lost decade" [4] Group 2: Alternative Investments and Fundraising - Franklin Templeton is focusing on expanding its outsourced chief investment officer (OCIO) business by catering to the demand for customized portfolio management from wealth and family office clients [5] - Alternative investment fundraising has reached approximately $148.4 billion year-to-date, with public non-traded business development companies leading the way at $34.5 billion [6] - There are concerns that retail investors may not fully understand the complexities and risks associated with alternative investment products being marketed to them [7] Group 3: Infrastructure and Real Estate Investments - McKinsey's research indicates that global data centers will require $6.7 trillion in investment to meet the growing demand for computing power, with an additional $5.2 trillion needed for AI-related infrastructure by 2030 [8] - Investment in qualified opportunity zone funds (QOFs) saw a significant decline in Q3 2025, raising only $436.8 million, as investors show caution ahead of a projected "dead period" for opportunity zone investments [9] - Apollo Global Management has appointed Bert Crouch as head of its real estate equity division, following its acquisition of Bridge Investment Group, which nearly doubled its real estate assets under management to $110 billion [10][2] Group 4: Leadership Changes in Financial Firms - Goldman Sachs Asset Management has appointed David Blank from UBS as the head of sales for separately managed accounts and portfolio solutions, indicating a strategic move to enhance its offerings in this area [11]

And the reason I'm buying Bitcoin is because I think when we get through the all-time highs again and basically get rid of this 4-year cycle belief, now there's no imaginary place for people to ever again care about. And that's normally what happens in equity markets. And oh, by the way, 2017 was the end of the Donald Trump tax cuts. We've had tariffs this year. We've had bad stuff happened this year. The equity market in 18 was bad. At one point, it was down 20% year to date in December. In 2022, the equit ...

Core Viewpoint - The artificial intelligence sector is at a high risk of market correction due to inflated valuations and unsustainable business models [2][3]. Group 1: Market Valuations - The AI boom has led to "unbelievable, crazy valuations" that do not align with company fundamentals [2]. - There is a significant increase in deal-making activity within the sector, indicating a potential bubble [2]. Group 2: Infrastructure Investments - Large hyperscalers are investing hundreds of billions of dollars in data centers, raising concerns about their ability to recoup these investments [3]. - The sustainability of business models in the AI industry is under scrutiny, particularly regarding the large language model AI paradigm [3].

Market Cycles & Wealth Generation - The industry anticipates the current cycle, or potentially the next, as a prime opportunity for significant wealth creation [1][2] - The industry draws parallels to tech cycles, noting a pattern of growth, maturity, and eventual replacement by superior technologies [1] Cryptocurrency & Altcoins - The industry suggests that existing cryptocurrencies like Solana and Ethereum may become obsolete due to technological advancements [2] - The industry advises caution, recommending swapping tokens that do not generate revenue [3] - The industry highlights the importance of monitoring renewed bubbles, indicating potential real-world applications [3] - The industry acknowledges the inherent risk of bubbles, emphasizing that they will eventually burst [3] Investment Strategy - The industry emphasizes the importance of fundamental analysis when evaluating tokens [3] - The industry suggests monitoring emerging sectors like RoboFi or energy in DeFi, while remaining aware of bubble risks [3]

Bubbles are normal when new technologies emerge. We analysed historical crashes to see how severe the consequences could be, and for whom https://t.co/7ULrAUOVJ3 ...