spending on data centers and related to AI has been holding up business investment. So overall um the the baseline expectation for next year is at least at at the Fed and I think with with outside forecasters too is a pickup in growth from today's relatively low level of level of 1.7%. for a few reasons.Fiscal policy is going to be supportive and as I mentioned AI spending will continue, the consumer continues to spend. So it looks like uh the baseline would be solid growth next year. >> What is going on in ...

Economic Growth & Forecast - Broadly, outside forecasts indicate a pickup in growth [1] - The baseline expectation is a growth pickup from the current 1.7% [2] - The SEP median growth is 1.7% for the current year and 2.3% for the next year [2] - Adjusting for shutdown impact, growth would be 1.9% and 2.1% respectively [2] - Solid growth is expected next year [3] Key Drivers - Resilient consumer spending is a contributing factor [1][3] - AI spending on data centers is supporting business investment [1][3] - Fiscal policy is expected to be supportive [2]

Summary of Key Points from J.P. Morgan Global Data Watch Industry Overview - The report discusses the global economy, highlighting a growth trajectory that is above potential, with GDP expected to exceed forecasts in the upcoming quarter [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Economic Growth vs. Labor Market**: There is a noted tension between strong output growth and soft labor markets, which is unsustainable without either increased hiring or a slowdown in growth [1]. The expectation is for a rebound in hiring, supported by consumer spending and fiscal/monetary policies, leading to a more balanced economic expansion in the first half of 2026 [1]. - **Global Composite PMI**: The J.P. Morgan global composite PMI indicates a potential annualized GDP growth of nearly 3%, which is over a percentage point stronger than previous projections [2]. The manufacturing PMI suggests a 1.3% annual rise in global industry, with a positive trend in orders relative to inventories [2]. - **Business Spending**: Mixed signals are present regarding business spending, with U.S. Fed regional surveys showing an uptick in capital expenditure, while the global investment goods PMI fell below the neutral mark [3]. This has led to a stall in the global capex nowcaster for the first time since the beginning of the year [3]. - **Employment Trends**: The global employment PMI has decreased, indicating weak job growth, particularly in the U.S., where a significant drop in private hiring was reported [10]. However, a decrease in unemployment insurance claims is a positive sign [10]. - **Consumer Spending**: Real consumer spending in the U.S. was softer than expected, with a flat report for September and a downward revision for August [11]. Despite this, there were rebounds in Chase card data and auto sales in October and November, indicating some resilience [11]. - **Central Bank Policies**: The report anticipates a variety of outcomes from central banks as the global easing cycle concludes. Expectations include one rate hike, eight cuts, and twelve holds by year-end [13]. The Fed is expected to signal a cautious approach to future cuts, while the Bank of Japan is anticipated to hike rates due to fiscal policy changes [16]. Additional Important Insights - **Euro Area Resilience**: The Euro area shows signs of resilience, with upward revisions to PMI and GDP growth, indicating a growth rate of 1.6% annualized [18]. Despite trade war impacts, fiscal easing in Germany is expected to bolster growth [18]. - **China's Economic Signals**: China's PMIs suggest a year-end recovery, with positive signals from new export orders and construction PMIs, although services have softened [21]. The forecast for GDP growth in Q4 is 3.0% quarter-over-quarter [21]. - **Trade Agreements**: The status of the USMCA renewal is uncertain, with potential delays in legislative approval until 2027, despite expectations for a preliminary agreement [23]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the J.P. Morgan Global Data Watch, focusing on the global economic outlook, labor market dynamics, consumer spending trends, and central bank policies, while also highlighting regional insights and trade considerations.

Australian business investment posted its biggest increase since early 2021, driven by major outlays on data centers and aircraft — a welcome boost for an economy that has been struggling to generate momentum https://t.co/uL9KcaoooP ...

The Bank of England used its regular business survey to warn that UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves will unveil her budget against a grim backdrop of weak business investment, rising unemployment and slowing growth https://t.co/mNIqkq8N3t ...

Core Insights - The UK's asset finance market experienced a 3% decrease in new business for August 2025 compared to the same month in the previous year, although there was a marginal cumulative increase of 1% for the first eight months of 2025 compared to 2024 [1][2]. Sector Performance - Business new car finance and business equipment finance sectors showed growth in August 2025, with increases of 7% and 4% respectively compared to August 2024 [2]. - In contrast, the commercial vehicle finance sector saw a significant decline of 17%, while the IT equipment finance sector experienced an 11% drop in new business compared to the same month in 2024 [2]. Economic Outlook - FLA's Q3 2025 Industry Outlook Survey indicated that over half of asset finance respondents expect a decrease in business investment over the next year, with the percentage anticipating an increase in new business dropping from 79% to 71% between Q2 and Q3 2025 [4]. - The FLA emphasized the need for a government growth agenda to restore business confidence, noting that the asset finance market supports about one-third of all UK investment in vehicles, machinery, and equipment [5].

Core Viewpoint - Bank of America predicts a solid year for the stock market in 2026, with expectations of continued momentum despite concerns about the US economy [1][7]. Market Predictions - The S&P 500 is expected to rise by another 8%, reaching a target of 7,200 within the next 12 months [3][5]. - The bank's price target aligns with other Wall Street forecasts, including Morgan Stanley's target of 7,200 and Goldman Sachs' target of 6,900 [5]. Corporate Earnings - Corporate earnings are projected to grow around 12% in the next year, indicating robust earnings growth for S&P 500 companies [6][8]. - Factors contributing to this earnings growth include improved productivity, increased business investment, looser monetary policy, and easing trade uncertainties [8].

Group 1 - Ackermans & van Haaren (AvH) has agreed to invest 22 million euros in VKC Nuts Private Limited, a prominent family business in the nuts and dried fruits sector in India [1] - Following the investment, AvH will acquire a 16.6% stake in VKC Nuts and will have representation on its board of directors [1] - The closing of this investment is anticipated in the fourth quarter of this year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The discussion highlights concerns regarding the U.S. economy's long-term competitiveness, particularly in science, technology, and education, especially in comparison to China's investments in these areas [6][7][8]. Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is viewed as the most impressive globally, but there are significant areas to monitor, particularly the investment in education and technology [5][6]. - The current economic environment suggests that stocks are generally fully priced, with less margin for error if economic conditions do not meet expectations [19][20]. Investment Concerns - There is a notable slowdown in business investment, particularly in equipment and AI-related categories, which could impact GDP growth in the second half of the year [21][22]. - The potential for profit margin erosion due to tariffs and the impact of inventory adjustments may lead to cost increases and supply chain disruptions [14][15]. Labor Market Insights - The labor market is showing signs of concern, with a stagnant labor force size affecting unemployment rates and overall economic health [16][17]. - A significant portion of PhD holders in critical fields such as medicine and engineering are immigrants, which underscores the importance of immigration policies and domestic education quality [11][12].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Soft data has historically indicated economic slowdowns earlier than hard data, but current hard data may take longer to reflect the impact of tariffs due to frontloading of imports and spending [3][6] - Surveys and management commentary can still provide valuable insights if interpreted carefully, focusing on concrete company decisions rather than general economic impressions [4][8] - The overall commentary suggests a forecast of slower hiring, slightly higher unemployment, minimal growth in investment spending, below-potential GDP growth, and a one-time inflation rebound to the mid-3s [4][46] Hiring Insights - Companies affected by policy uncertainty and reliant on sales to China and Europe have significantly reduced job openings, while total openings have only moderately declined [12][13] - The share of companies signaling layoffs has increased slightly, but remains low compared to historical peaks, and hiring freezes have risen but are still within expansion period ranges [14][19] Investment Insights - Analysts have lowered capital spending expectations for more companies than they have raised in the last three quarters, although total capital expenditure expectations have risen due to increased AI investment [20][22] - Companies most affected by tariffs and policy uncertainty have seen larger reductions in capital spending expectations, with a notable 5-6% decrease for those with significant sales exposure to China and the EU [22][27] Production and Supply Chain Insights - Companies are increasingly concerned about tariffs impacting their supply chains but have not reported significant shortages that could disrupt production [28][31] - The report assumes that tariffs will not lead to widespread shortages, which could otherwise pose risks to inflation and GDP growth [32] Pricing Insights - Companies have announced only modest price increases this year, with expectations that consumers will absorb about 50% of the direct tariff costs, lower than the previously assumed 70% [4][43] - The limited increase in price announcements reflects a cautious approach among companies, particularly those exposed to policy uncertainty [33][38]