Malaysia is poised to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged on Thursday, with stable growth, benign inflation and a strengthening ringgit allowing the central bank to preserve policy ammunition https://t.co/P0NdguTczs ...

Brazil’s central bank unveiled a new set of rules for financial institutions on Monday https://t.co/FsnFlddFnY ...

China’s central bank appears to be taking a more assertive stance in its push to expand the yuan’s role in the global monetary system https://t.co/6QPpAWpldt ...

Why is gold up. Gold is up because there are many more net new buyers. Who is the most important net new buyer.It's Tether. Tether has been issuing a stable coin called Tether Gold where they'll actually custody the gold on your behalf and volumes of it are rising. At the same time, central banks are rebalancing.And then yet at the same time, you have a lot of macro funds that have essentially decided that central banks aren't to be trusted and they don't know what to do. And so they're not necessarily long ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **global economy** and the impact of **US tariffs** on international trade and inflation dynamics. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Global Economic Growth**: The global economy has shown resilience, with growth slowing to 2.5% in the first half of the year, down from nearly 3% last year. A further slowdown to below 2% is expected in the second half, with a rebound to nearly 3% anticipated in the first half of next year [1][18]. 2. **Impact of US Tariffs**: US tariffs have created uncertainties, but their restraining effects have been slow to emerge. Recent months have seen a decline in US imports and a retreat in foreign exports, indicating that the effects of tariffs are beginning to be felt [2][17]. 3. **Central Bank Policies**: A majority of global central banks are expected to continue cutting rates, with 21 out of 30 major central banks projected to cut by year-end. The Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates in September due to a softer labor market [3][32]. 4. **Surge in Tariff Revenues**: US tariff revenues have increased significantly, surpassing $330 billion annually in July, compared to $75 billion last year, reflecting an effective tariff rate of 11% [4][46]. 5. **Tariff Absorption by Firms**: US firms are currently absorbing 60-70% of the tariffs, but this is not expected to be sustainable long-term. Firms may increasingly pass these costs onto foreign suppliers and US consumers [5][63]. 6. **Inflation Dynamics**: Headline inflation remains near 2%, but core inflation is running higher than pre-pandemic levels. The tariffs are contributing to stagflationary pressures in the US, while they may exert downward pressure on wages and prices globally [22][24]. 7. **Sectoral Impact of Tariffs**: The tariffs are expected to affect various sectors differently, with foreign exporters potentially absorbing some costs, while US consumers may face higher prices. Evidence suggests that consumers have borne approximately 30-40% of the tariff costs to date [48][53]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Global PMIs**: Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data indicates that services are outperforming manufacturing, with the services PMI recovering to favorable levels while manufacturing PMI hovers around the expansion-contraction threshold [8][11]. 2. **Trade Dynamics**: The expected reduction in US demand for foreign products due to tariffs has not yet fully materialized, as US imports surged late last year. However, recent trends show a decline in imports, suggesting a shift in trade dynamics [12][16]. 3. **Future Projections**: The likelihood of severe downside risks to the global economy is diminishing, but the potential for more powerful downdrafts from tariffs remains a concern [18][39]. 4. **Sectoral Tariffs**: The overall US tariff rate is currently around 18%, with expectations that it could exceed 20% with additional sectoral tariffs on pharmaceuticals and electronics [42]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state of the global economy, the implications of US tariffs, and the responses from central banks and various sectors.

Market Trends & Geopolitical Uncertainty - Chip stocks are moving lower due to potential US government equity stakes, raising governance concerns similar to those seen with Chinese companies [1][2] - Geopolitical uncertainty, including tariffs and the Russia-Ukraine war, contributes to market nervousness [6][11] - Investors are nervous about the geopolitical landscape and equities [11] Central Bank Policy & Inflation - Central bank policy, particularly in the US, is a key factor influencing market sentiment, with expectations of a potential 25 basis point cut being closely watched [4][7] - Inflation remains a concern on both sides of the Atlantic, with the US Federal Reserve expected to maintain a "higher for longer" stance despite White House pressures [7] - The base case for the Fed is a rate cut in September, but no further moves are expected for the next 3 to 6 months, which could negatively impact high-growth names [8] Profit Taking & Market Rotation - Profit-taking is occurring due to market concentration and geopolitical uncertainty, intertwined with concerns about central bank policy [5][9][10] - There's a rotation away from high-valuation tech names, including the Mag 7 and the Ark Innovation ETF, with companies like Palantir entering correction territory [4] Investment Strategy & Global Allocation - The US market looks "toppy" and uncertain, leading to a potential "best of the rest" trade, favoring markets like the UK and Europe [12] - Despite concerns about the UK economy, the FTSE 100 offers compelling businesses with low debt levels and attractive yields [15] - While UK inflation is rising (38% yesterday, expected to rise to 4% in September), the equity market is decoupled from the economy due to international revenues [14][16]

Economic Activity - Brazil's economic activity experienced a decline for the second consecutive month in June [1] - The decline is attributed to the central bank's aggressive interest rate hikes taking effect [1]

The yuan is closing in on its biggest weekly drop in over six months as the dollar rebounds, sharpening the focus on the Chinese central bank’s policy signals. https://t.co/Hdl7dRNtog ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the **US economy** and its interaction with **tariff policies** and **central bank strategies**. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Economic Forecast**: Economists predict that tariffs will initially cause a temporary inflation spike in Q3 2025, followed by a significant economic slowdown in Q4 2025, referred to as a "growth pothole" [16][13][41]. 2. **Tariff Impact**: The tariffs are viewed as a tax burden that will eventually affect consumers, although the full impact may not be felt immediately as importers have not fully passed on costs to consumers yet [23][28]. 3. **Customs Duties**: The customs duties collected in July 2025 are projected to reach **$340 billion**, which is **1.10% of nominal GDP**, significantly higher than the historical average of **0.25%** [29]. 4. **CEO Confidence**: There is a noted relationship between CEO confidence and economic performance, with current CEO confidence not indicating immediate threats to the economy despite tariff concerns [30][41]. 5. **Market Complacency**: Investors appear complacent regarding the potential impacts of tariffs, as evidenced by current market pricing and performance [15][62]. 6. **Inflation Projections**: Core PCE inflation is expected to peak in May 2026, with current pricing suggesting a transitory impact from tariffs [72][47]. 7. **Central Bank Decisions**: Central banks, particularly the **Swiss National Bank (SNB)**, have surprised markets with their decisions more frequently than others, such as the **Federal Reserve (Fed)** and **Bank of Japan (BoJ)** [73][45]. Additional Important Content 1. **Treasury Market Dynamics**: The Treasury market is expected to see stable coupon sizes until February 2027, with a tailored approach to liquidity management [5][65]. 2. **Equity Market Correlation**: The equity market and real economy often diverge until a recession occurs, at which point they tend to align [31][36]. 3. **Future Projections**: The economists' baseline view suggests that while inflationary pressures are anticipated, the growth slowdown may catch both the Fed and investors off guard, potentially leading to a stall in the equity market [47][41]. 4. **Currency Movements**: The analysis indicates that currency reactions are closely tied to central bank decisions, with notable movements observed in currencies like the **GBP** and **AUD** following unexpected policy changes [54][90]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections discussed in the conference call, highlighting the interplay between tariffs, economic forecasts, and central bank strategies.

Regulatory Compliance - Global lenders are planning to request the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to ease a proposed regulation that mandates the reporting of offshore interest-rate derivative trades [1] Financial Markets - The regulation pertains to offshore interest-rate derivative trades [1]