US M2 is at ATH.Japan M2 is at ATH.EU M2 is at ATH.China M2 is at ATH.And the crypto market is acting like every major central bank is about to start QT. https://t.co/3tGwlu87Yb ...

In today’s India Edition, Menaka Doshi looks at where Indian equities sit in the global picture, and Siddhi Nayak analyses the reasons for the central bank’s interest rate cuts not reaching the retail borrower. https://t.co/NKbrt4vtHo ...

Thailand’s central bank is tightening controls on large cash withdrawals after flagging two unusual transactions of more than $6 million apiece https://t.co/XDs0NRi8Pd ...

Summary of Key Points from the 2026 Global Rates Outlook Industry Overview - The report focuses on the global bond market, particularly G10 economies, and provides insights into interest rate forecasts, inflation dynamics, and sovereign bond supply. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Central Bank Policy and Yield Forecasts**: The pricing of central bank policies in G10 markets is leaning hawkish, with expectations of limited rises in front-end yields due to disinflation. The forecast for 10-year U.S. Treasuries (USTs) is 4.2% by year-end 2026, while Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) are expected at 2.0%, British Gilts at 4.0%, and German Bunds at 3.25% [3][8][6]. 2. **Growth as a Yield Driver**: The inflation outlook indicates that growth will be the primary driver of yields in 2026, enhancing the hedging benefits of bonds. The report suggests a range-bound environment for yields despite fiscal risks [3][13][16]. 3. **Inflation Dynamics**: Core inflation is projected to converge to target levels across G10 economies, with the U.S. expected to see benign inflation. This moderation in inflation is anticipated to support bond performance [16][44]. 4. **Sovereign Bond Supply**: Net bond supply is expected to remain high but stabilize, with the U.S. projected to see a decline in net coupon supply from $1.7 trillion in 2025 to approximately $1.2 trillion in 2026. The Euro Area is expected to stabilize at high levels, while Japan may see an increase in net supply due to fiscal expansion [54][58]. 5. **Market Volatility and Risk**: The report highlights that while favorable macroeconomic conditions support bond performance, risks remain, particularly from labor market dynamics and potential inflationary pressures. The volatility in rates is expected to be influenced by labor market conditions and inflation concerns [22][87]. 6. **Sovereign Spreads**: European sovereign spreads are expected to remain tight due to improving growth and strong EU support, despite some anticipated widening in 2026. The report forecasts specific spreads for Italian BTPs, French OATs, and Spanish Bonos [77][78][84]. 7. **Differentiation in Policy Cycles**: The report notes that different approaches to monetary policy across G10 countries will lead to varied yield curve movements, with the U.S. expected to see a steepening of the 2s10s curve while Europe may experience a more parallel shift [31][39]. 8. **Investment Strategies**: The report suggests that investors may benefit from positioning in belly inflation longs and using options to express directional views, particularly in light of the expected moderation in inflation volatility [44][86]. Additional Important Content - **Fiscal Risks**: The report discusses unresolved fiscal risks that could impact bond issuance strategies and market dynamics, particularly in the U.S. and Japan [23][30]. - **Global Economic Factors**: The interplay between global economic growth, inflation, and central bank policies is emphasized as a critical factor influencing bond markets [52][95]. - **Long-term Yield Dynamics**: The report anticipates that long-term yields will be more influenced by growth rather than inflation, with potential for risk premium relief in various markets [95]. This comprehensive analysis provides a detailed outlook on the bond market dynamics expected in 2026, highlighting the interplay between growth, inflation, and central bank policies across major economies.

31 December 2025 | 12:58PM EST Economics Research Global Economics Wrap-Up: December 31, 2025 Global Economics 12/31/25 10:42AM ET US Economics 12/31/25 12:00PM ET Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Joseph Briggs +1(212)902-2163 | joseph.briggs@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Andrew Tilton +852-2978-1802 | andrew.tilton ...

Summary of Key Points from J.P. Morgan Global Data Watch Industry Overview - The report discusses the global economy, highlighting a growth trajectory that is above potential, with GDP expected to exceed forecasts in the upcoming quarter [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Economic Growth vs. Labor Market**: There is a noted tension between strong output growth and soft labor markets, which is unsustainable without either increased hiring or a slowdown in growth [1]. The expectation is for a rebound in hiring, supported by consumer spending and fiscal/monetary policies, leading to a more balanced economic expansion in the first half of 2026 [1]. - **Global Composite PMI**: The J.P. Morgan global composite PMI indicates a potential annualized GDP growth of nearly 3%, which is over a percentage point stronger than previous projections [2]. The manufacturing PMI suggests a 1.3% annual rise in global industry, with a positive trend in orders relative to inventories [2]. - **Business Spending**: Mixed signals are present regarding business spending, with U.S. Fed regional surveys showing an uptick in capital expenditure, while the global investment goods PMI fell below the neutral mark [3]. This has led to a stall in the global capex nowcaster for the first time since the beginning of the year [3]. - **Employment Trends**: The global employment PMI has decreased, indicating weak job growth, particularly in the U.S., where a significant drop in private hiring was reported [10]. However, a decrease in unemployment insurance claims is a positive sign [10]. - **Consumer Spending**: Real consumer spending in the U.S. was softer than expected, with a flat report for September and a downward revision for August [11]. Despite this, there were rebounds in Chase card data and auto sales in October and November, indicating some resilience [11]. - **Central Bank Policies**: The report anticipates a variety of outcomes from central banks as the global easing cycle concludes. Expectations include one rate hike, eight cuts, and twelve holds by year-end [13]. The Fed is expected to signal a cautious approach to future cuts, while the Bank of Japan is anticipated to hike rates due to fiscal policy changes [16]. Additional Important Insights - **Euro Area Resilience**: The Euro area shows signs of resilience, with upward revisions to PMI and GDP growth, indicating a growth rate of 1.6% annualized [18]. Despite trade war impacts, fiscal easing in Germany is expected to bolster growth [18]. - **China's Economic Signals**: China's PMIs suggest a year-end recovery, with positive signals from new export orders and construction PMIs, although services have softened [21]. The forecast for GDP growth in Q4 is 3.0% quarter-over-quarter [21]. - **Trade Agreements**: The status of the USMCA renewal is uncertain, with potential delays in legislative approval until 2027, despite expectations for a preliminary agreement [23]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the J.P. Morgan Global Data Watch, focusing on the global economic outlook, labor market dynamics, consumer spending trends, and central bank policies, while also highlighting regional insights and trade considerations.

Israel’s central bank is set to lower interest rates on Monday for the first time in almost two years https://t.co/m4WEw0xUxR ...

Monetary Policy - Malaysia's central bank is expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate unchanged [1] - Stable economic growth, benign inflation, and a strengthening ringgit support the decision to preserve policy ammunition [1]

Brazil’s central bank unveiled a new set of rules for financial institutions on Monday https://t.co/FsnFlddFnY ...

China’s central bank appears to be taking a more assertive stance in its push to expand the yuan’s role in the global monetary system https://t.co/6QPpAWpldt ...