And my next guest says the slide isn't over yet. Marco Pipe is chief strategist at BCA research. Marco been eager to check in with you with everything that's happened geopolitically and otherwise the past couple of weeks. But let's start with some of these market moves the long end not look you know treasuries obviously the UK we I don't know if you want to get into that those bond rates moving higher um with some concern about the budget bill. How would you describe the signals that were um being sent here ...

July 1, 2025 05:22 PM GMT G10 FX Strategy, US Economics and Equity Strategy What Does USD Weakness Mean for the US? Contrary to many investors, we think that USD's weakening trend is at the intermission, not the finale. What are the broader economic and market implications of a net 20% USD decline as we expect? Key Takeaways Please add me to your distribution list. | M | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | | Global Idea | | July 1, 2025 05:22 PM GMT | | | | G10 FX Strategy, US Economics and Equity Strategy | Morgan ...

Our next guest says the budget bill could push the dollar even lower after its worst start to the year since 1973. Let's bring in former Bridgewater chief strategist Rebecca Patterson. Rebecca, great to see you. Great to have you on the show.Um, in addition to the spending bill, there are other factors why you see a weaker dollar going forward. Yeah. Well, let's start with the spending bill.you know, the we're not at the finish line as as we just heard. But if we get a bill something like what we're seeing ...

更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木Alpha June 29, 2025 06:00 AM GMT Sunday Start | What's Next in Global Macro M Global Idea Are Foreign Investors Fleeing US Assets? Investment flows, both from and into US assets, were a key theme in our client conversations in multiple meetings across the pond last week. While many questions concerned the tax provisions under Section 899 proposed in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which have since been removed, the subtext was clear – are investors, particularly foreign investors, ...

If you're a US investor, U.S. equity markets are starting to look a little bit more rosy. We're on a decent roll. We're back.We've bounced quite strongly off the earlier lows. But if you're a European investor, the picture looks very different. How do I think about this. How are you thinking about this.Do you think this equity market rally has got legs. Well, I do think that the equity markets are looking a bit frothy guy, because, you know, since April we have bounced hard, as you mentioned. And if you loo ...

All right. Well, even with the bid for treasuries and the US dollar today, Bank of America's new global fund manager survey sees falling demand for US assets, it also finds investors are more underweight the dollar than they've been in two decades. Our next guest sees this as a potential game-changing moment for the greenback.Peter Bookar is the chief investment officer at Blekeley Financial Group. He's also a CNBC contributor. Peter, great to have you with us.you know, with the dollar with the spade of dol ...

I I think the question I want to ask you about oil um oil prices up higher right now. A lot of questions about what's going on in the Middle East. Did it pull back a bit yesterday, but higher again this morning.What does that say about investor sentiment when it comes to Middle East risk. Well, I think a lot of what's happening right now is all about investor sentiment. Oil is one of the the factors here, but only one of them.Uh the fact that we're not seeing aggressive movement in the oil prices. Yes, we'r ...

So maybe Art, we'll start big picture here because I'm curious. Art, what is the latest Art Hogan target, year-end target for the S&P. Art, where are we.Yeah, so our target is 6200, which uh doesn't seem that aggressive in the here and now, but certainly felt aggressive uh back in April. So I I would tell you this. I think we've done a good job of going from a defensive first quarter where everyone was piling into things like consumer staples, utilities, healthcare, gold, and treasuries to where now we feel ...

For more on dollar weakness, let's bring in Kathy Lean, head of FX Strategy at BK Asset Management. Kathy, great to have you with us. Um, what do you think is the number one driver of the dollar's move lower, Kathy.And what do you make of the seeming sort of discrepancy between the extreme dollar weakness that we've seen recently and the relative stability in the Treasury market. So, the question really should be what's the driver of the near-term um selloff in the dollar versus the sell-off that we've seen ...

Market Expectations & Trade Relations - Market expectations regarding US-China trade talks are realistic, with no anticipation of a grand deal [1][2] - A minor agreement on rare earth exports in exchange for tech exports may disappoint the market [2] - US effective tariff rate on all trade partners reached over 7% in April, a multiple of the rate in the past 25 years [3] - Tariff rate on China was up in the high 30% in April, subsequently decreasing but remaining at extreme levels [3] - Without a positive surprise in trade talks, the market may drift lower as profit-taking begins [4] Equity Market Performance - No fresh record highs are expected for US or global stocks [5] - US stocks have underperformed global stocks by approximately 7 trillion over the past four months [5] - US stocks experienced a sharp decline from early February to mid-March, subsequently keeping pace with global stocks [6] - A new positive catalyst is needed for US stocks to reach fresh record highs [7] Currency Market Outlook - The possibility of Euro/Dollar reaching 140 is being discussed [7] - The US dollar is expected to structurally decline significantly in the coming years, though not in a straight line [9] - An overshoot to 140 on Euro/Dollar is feasible but not expected this year [9]