The dollar slipped Wednesday as the US entered its first government shutdown in nearly seven years and a report showing private-sector payroll growth turning negative kept a lid on the US currency. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index pared losses late in New York trading but closed down a fourth day, its longest such streak in a month. The yen rallied to a two-week high, while Treasuries rose across the curve alongside US equities. Most Read from Bloomberg Shutdowns have typically weighed on the greenback, ...

The looming US government shutdown is a clear risk for the dollar. The threatened shutdown is adding to a number of challenges that have kept the dollar under pressure this year — including a new cycle of US interest-rate cuts that kicked off this month and attacks on the Federal Reserve’s independence by the Trump administration. Most Read from Bloomberg “The likelihood of the potential for a government shutdown is relatively high,” said Bill Campbell, a global bond portfolio manager at DoubleLine. ...

For 3 minutes on the markets. Mark, good morning to you. So let's start with the impact of shot down and in particular on the US dollar.ICC sitting talking about how this is something that's going to weigh on the dollar. And I think from reading your notes, you think that that's the sort of path of least resistance for the dollar right now. Absolutely.I think that's probably the easiest way to kind of play this kind of theme. I think overall, what government shutdown means is not major economic impact unles ...

For 3 minutes on the markets. Mark, good morning to you. So let's start with the impact of shot down and in particular on the US dollar.ICC sitting talking about how this is something that's going to weigh on the dollar. And I think from reading your notes, you think that that's the sort of path of least resistance for the dollar right now. Absolutely.I think that's probably the easiest way to kind of play this kind of theme. I think overall, what government shutdown means is not major economic impact unles ...

October NY world sugar #11 (SBV25) today is up +0.16 (+1.01%), and December London ICE white sugar #5 (SWZ25) is up +2.20 (+0.48%). Sugar prices are moving higher today and posted 1.5-week highs as dollar weakness (DXY00) spurs short-covering in sugar futures. More News from Barchart Last Tuesday, NY sugar posted a 4.25-year nearest-futures low, and London sugar posted a 4-year low as they extended their 7-month downtrend due to prospects of abundant global sugar supplies.  Last Tuesday, StoneX project ...

Economic Overview - The economy is characterized by a bifurcation, with disparities between high-income and low-income consumers, as well as differences in capital expenditure (capex) related to AI versus traditional sectors [2][3] - The stock market reflects these bifurcations, with strong performance in AI infrastructure and data center sectors, while traditional defensive areas are underperforming [3] Currency and International Markets - The dollar has shown weakness, influenced by the Fed's cautious rate outlook and economic data from Germany, with expectations of growth slowing in the US while accelerating in the Eurozone [4][6] - A weak dollar has contributed over 1000 basis points to international stock returns for US investors this year [7] Consumer Sentiment and Spending - There is a noted disconnect between Wall Street performance and the broader economy, with concerns about concentration risk among companies reliant on consumer spending [8] - Consumer sentiment is currently mixed, with robust consumption observed in higher-income brackets, while demand destruction is noted in tariff-impacted goods [10][11] Chinese Market Dynamics - Recent optimism in the Chinese market is highlighted by the Shanghai composite reaching a 10-year high, with a shift in perception from "uninvestable" to potential investment opportunities [12][13] - The MSCI China index has seen a year-to-date gain of over 35%, primarily driven by multiple expansions rather than earnings growth, raising questions about sustainability [14]

Gold’s rally looks set to extend further, supported by the Fed’s September cut and two additional cuts expected later in the year. The price of the precious metal has risen 11.19% over the past month and 41.48% year to date.Strong fundamental indicators could extend gold’s gains into late 2025 and 2026, boosting the case for increased portfolio allocation. This year’s rally has been fueled by dollar weakness, sustained central bank buying and safe-haven demand amid geopolitical and trade tensions.With the g ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The report focuses on the implications of the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle and its impact on various sectors and markets, particularly in the context of the global economy and investment strategies. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Recession Outlook**: There is a low probability of a recession following the Fed's rate cuts, with historical data indicating that recessions occur 56% of the time after rate cuts. Current conditions do not show classic preconditions for a recession, such as commodity shocks or excess private sector leverage [5][10][12]. 2. **Market Bubble Risk**: If the Fed cuts rates by 1% by year-end, all seven preconditions for a market bubble would be present, with a 35% probability of a bubble forming in 2026. Historically, markets have risen by an average of 17% 12 months after a rate cut without a recession [5][21][26]. 3. **Technology Sector Performance**: The technology sector, particularly software, is expected to outperform following rate cuts, with historical data showing that tech stocks outperform 75% of the time in the 12 months after the first rate cut if there is no recession [3][30]. 4. **Dollar Weakness**: The dollar typically weakens following rate cuts, with historical data showing an 80% chance of a decline in the month after a cut. This trend supports investment in sectors that benefit from a weaker dollar, such as domestic European companies and certain U.S. sectors [4][38][45]. 5. **Emerging Markets (EM) Focus**: Emerging markets tend to outperform following Fed rate cuts, with a 75% success rate in the 12 months after a cut without a recession. Specific countries highlighted include Brazil and China, along with indirect plays like Reckitt Benckiser and Coca-Cola [5][75]. 6. **Sector Analysis**: - **Cyclicals vs. Defensives**: Cyclical sectors (excluding tech and financials) are currently priced for strong economic recovery, while defensives are recommended for stability. Financials are expected to outperform 75% of the time following rate cuts [7][73]. - **Gold Stocks**: Gold stocks are favored as they have historically risen after rate cuts, with a weaker dollar further supporting this trend [9][37]. 7. **Small Caps Sensitivity**: U.S. small caps are more sensitive to rate changes but have shown limited long-term performance following rate cuts due to their underweight in tech and overvaluation concerns [8][63]. 8. **Investment Recommendations**: The report suggests maintaining positions in tech stocks (Meta, MSFT, Amazon, TSMC), electrification companies (Eaton, Schneider), and gold stocks as preferred investments in the current environment [3][37][9]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The report emphasizes the unusual nature of the current economic environment, drawing parallels to historical periods such as September 1998, where similar conditions led to significant market gains [26][28]. - The analysis includes detailed statistical data on sector performance following rate cuts, highlighting the importance of understanding historical trends in making investment decisions [74][75]. This comprehensive analysis provides a strategic framework for navigating the potential impacts of the Fed's monetary policy on various sectors and markets.

October WTI crude oil (CLV25) on Tuesday closed up +1.22 (+1.93%), and October RBOB gasoline (RBV25) closed up +0.0282 (+1.40%). Crude oil and gasoline prices rallied sharply on Tuesday and posted 1.5-week highs.  Tuesday's slump in the dollar index (DXY00) to a 2.5-month low is bullish for energy prices.  Also, concerns over a decline in Russian oil exports are boosting crude prices as Ukraine steps up its drone attacks on Russian refineries.  In addition, Tuesday's stronger-than-expected US economic new ...

Mark, let's find out what top of mind for you. We're working towards a Fed meeting. Of course, markets seem pretty peaceful with that still on the horizon, but you're spotting some dollar softness that you're putting down to the to the migrant story. We'll be back to talking about steepness and dollar softness on the back of that then. We very much are talking about that.I think one of the problems going into this week's Fed meeting, which is what everyone is eyeing, is that the trades have already played o ...