China’s Chip Rally Shows AI Froth Spilling Eastward https://t.co/RLbp92H37C ...

| | | 近十年国庆前后上证指数涨跌幅(%) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 年份 | 最后一个交易日 | 节后首个交易日 | 节后5个交易日 | | 2015 | 0. 48 | 2. 97 | 6.87 | | 2016 | 0. 21 | 1. 45 | 1. 97 | | 2017 | 0. 28 | 0. 76 | 1. 24 | | 2018 | 1. 06 | -3.72 | -7.60 | | 2019 | -0. 92 | 0. 29 | 3.53 | | 2020 | -0. 20 | 1. 68 | 3.55 | | 2021 | 0. 90 | 0. 67 | -0. 28 | | 2022 | -0. 55 | =1. 66 | 1. 57 | | 2023 | 0. 10 | -0. 44 | -0.72 | | 2024 | 8.06 | 4. 59 | -1. 56 | | | | 教据来源: Wind 出品:21财经客户端 南财快讯工作室 | | 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 记者丨杨乔羽 编辑丨叶 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market performance after the National Day holiday is generally positive, with historical data indicating a high probability of gains in major indices [1]. Market Performance - Over the past ten years, the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index have shown a 70% probability of rising on the first trading day after the National Day holiday, with 60% and 70% probabilities of gains over the subsequent five trading days, respectively [1]. - The Shanghai Composite Index recorded five years of gains and five years of losses in October, while the Shenzhen Component Index had seven years of gains and three years of losses [2]. Historical Index Changes - The performance of the Shanghai Composite Index on the first trading day after the holiday varied, with notable years including: - 2015: +2.97% - 2018: -3.72% - 2024: +4.59% [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index also showed fluctuations, with: - 2015: +4.07% - 2018: -4.05% - 2024: +9.17% [2]. Sector Performance - The probability of gains in various sectors after the National Day holiday is generally above 50%, particularly in the following sectors: - Computer, Communication, and Electronics [4]. - Banking, Non-bank Financials, and Automotive sectors also show high probabilities of gains in the weeks following the holiday [4]. Investment Outlook - Multiple brokerages have a positive outlook for the A-share market post-holiday, suggesting investors hold stocks during the holiday to better navigate market changes [5]. - Specific sectors recommended for investment include: - Electronics (consumer electronics, semiconductors) - Communication (computing power) - Machinery (robots) - Non-ferrous metals (rare and precious metals) - Media (gaming) - Computing (AI applications) [5][6]. - Conservative investors are advised to maintain positions and respond flexibly to market changes after the holiday [6].

Group 1 - The A-share market indices collectively rose, with the computing power sector leading the gains, and the chip sector showing continued strength, particularly in AI-related stocks such as Lexin Technology and Aojie Technology, which saw a 20% limit up [1] - The Southern Innovation Board Artificial Intelligence ETF (159382) and the Southern Chip ETF (588890) experienced significant intraday gains, exceeding 5%, with rapidly increasing trading volumes and strong capital interest [1] - As of August 26, the Southern Chip ETF (588890) reached a new high in scale at 1.365 billion yuan and a new share count of 591 million, with a total net inflow of 638 million yuan over the past six days [1] Group 2 - Cambricon Technologies reported a substantial increase in revenue and net profit in its mid-2025 report, with revenue reaching 288.064 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4347.82%, and a net profit of 91.257 million yuan, marking a turnaround [2] - The AI wave, combined with the increase in domestic chip production rates, positions Cambricon as a core beneficiary of the current AI trend, according to Guosheng Securities [2] - Dongguan Securities highlighted that AI is a key driver of growth in the tech industry and a major battleground for global tech competition, with domestic models like DeepSeek helping to reduce costs and accelerate AI application scenarios [2] Group 3 - The Southern Chip ETF (588890) closely tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange's Sci-Tech Innovation Board Chip Index, which includes companies involved in semiconductor materials, equipment, design, manufacturing, packaging, and testing [3] - The top ten weighted stocks in the index include Cambricon, SMIC, Haiguang Information, and others, reflecting the overall performance of representative chip industry companies listed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [3]

Government Intervention & Industrial Policy - Government intervention in Intel raises concerns about its role shifting from a trusted supplier to a political tool [1] - The core purpose of subsidies for Intel was to enhance chip resilience, but the current move's objective is unclear beyond presidential preference [2][3] - Concerns exist that government dependence could lead to political influence on company policy, creating potential downsides [4] - The return on investment should be Intel's ability to become a reliable, leading-edge chip manufacturer, benefiting US national security [7] - Politicization of companies distracts from the goal of expanding US domestic chip operations [7] Investment & Financial Implications - The government's stake in Intel saw a hypothetical paper gain due to stock movements [5] - The true return on investment is not stock price increase but the expansion of US domestic chip manufacturing [7]

Market Performance - A-shares opened higher on August 25, with a significant increase in trading volume, exceeding 2 trillion yuan in half a day [1] - By midday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.86%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.61%, and the ChiNext Index gained 2.22% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 21,019 billion yuan, an increase of 5,713 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] Sector Highlights - Key sectors driving the market rally include artificial intelligence, chips, and semiconductors, with leading stocks in these areas taking the lead [1] - The chip industry chain saw a significant opening and high-level fluctuations, with several core stocks reaching new highs, including Cambrian Technology, which surpassed 1,300 yuan [1] - Other sectors such as real estate and photovoltaics also experienced notable inflows, with Vanke A hitting the daily limit [1] - The liquor sector showed strength as well, with Shede Liquor reaching the daily limit [1] - Individual stock performance included Zhongke Shuguang achieving a daily limit for the second consecutive trading day [1]

The decision to resume exports of America’s world-beating AI chips to China is a grave mistake at the worst possible time.As impressive as Chinese models have been, American chip controls were clearly working https://t.co/YYKm0s3ZW8 ...

Competitive Landscape - Huawei is becoming increasingly competitive, potentially benefiting significantly from exclusive access to the Chinese market, which would subsidize their R&D efforts [1] - Granting Huawei the entire Chinese market would enable them to refine their cloud matrix system and scale up operations [1] - Nvidia believes it can compete for a significant portion of the Chinese market, even with a less advanced chip [2] - Restricting Huawei's market share in China is seen as a strategic move to limit their global competitive advantage [2] Policy Implications - The current policy regarding chip sales to China is considered nuanced and strategically sound [2] - The policy aims to prevent Huawei from dominating the Chinese market and using it as a springboard for global expansion [2]

Group 1 - The article highlights the importance of weekly announcements from Sunday to Thursday, which include significant stock market updates such as suspensions, investments, acquisitions, earnings reports, and stock unlockings [1] - It emphasizes the need for investors to identify potential investment hotspots and to guard against various black swan events by having ample time to analyze and select suitable listed companies [1] Group 2 - A company with deep technical reserves in digital currency is mentioned, indicating its strong position in the digital currency and blockchain sectors [1] - Another company is noted for its stable supply relationships with mainstream PCB manufacturers, linking it to the PCB concept, chips, photoresist, and photovoltaics [1] - A company is highlighted for its cash acquisition of semiconductor equity, connecting it to chips, synthetic biology, hydrogen energy, and energy storage [1]

US-China Trade Relations & Semiconductor Industry Impact - The US government is considering actions targeting Chinese chip plants, potentially impacting global chipmakers operating in China [1][2] - The US is considering ending waivers for companies like TSMC, SK Hynix, and Samsung, which manufacture chips in China, requiring them to obtain licenses for importing American chipmaking equipment [1][3] - This action aims to level the playing field regarding requirements for rare earths shipped to the US, potentially requiring similar licensing for American technology entering China [2][3] Scope of Restrictions - The restrictions primarily target legacy semiconductors used in automobiles, consumer electronics, and other lower-end products, not the most advanced AI chips [5] - The US government is not barring companies like AMD and Nvidia from selling their most advanced chips, but rather targeting a different segment of chip production in China [5] Impact on Chip Manufacturing - TSMC, SK Hynix, and Samsung produce a significant number of chips for the American market in China using US equipment [3] - Under the new regulations, US equipment used in these Chinese plants would require a license instead of a blanket waiver [3][4]