The bond market’s consensus view that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least twice more this year is at odds with US economic resilience, say portfolio managers at Invesco and Carmignac, who are betting against Treasuries https://t.co/KyJbK7mLth ...

Group 1 - The bustling atmosphere of the New Year markets reflects the economic vitality and the happiness of people's lives, showcasing a positive economic outlook and enhanced quality of life [1][3] - The evolution of New Year market consumption from basic needs to quality selections indicates an upgrade in living standards, with health-conscious products and personalized gift boxes gaining popularity [1][2] - The integration of online and offline shopping experiences, including live streaming and community group buying, has broken spatial boundaries and invigorated consumption in both urban and rural areas [2][3] Group 2 - The vibrant New Year market is a result of precise policy implementation and demonstrates the resilience and vitality of the Chinese economy, serving as a key indicator of economic growth [3][4] - Various practical measures, such as consumer subsidies and optimized shopping environments, have been introduced to support New Year consumption, highlighting the unique advantages of China's large-scale market [3] - The ongoing consumer enthusiasm during the New Year period is expected to drive high-quality economic development, contributing to a positive start for the economy in the new year [4]

Economic Outlook - The jobs data released indicates a stronger than expected increase of 130,000 jobs, suggesting resilience in the economy [1][2] - GDP forecasts range from 2.8% to 5% for the year, with President Trump citing a figure of 15% [2] - Unemployment has decreased for three consecutive months, indicating a positive trend in the labor market [3] Federal Reserve Policy - Improved job numbers may reduce the necessity for rate cuts, which could have negative long-term implications for the market [4] - Current market expectations show a 94% chance of no change in interest rates, with potential for a quarter-point decrease if inflation rises [5] - The upcoming leadership change at the Federal Reserve may bring a more visionary approach to monetary policy, focusing on consumer impacts [6][8] Consumer Behavior and Retail Sales - Retail sales data suggests a K-shaped economy, where 40% of the population accounts for 90% of consumption, leading to consumer pullback as prices rise [11][12] - Inflation is expected to remain around 2.1% for the last three months, with hopes for a lower number to support potential rate cuts [12] Market Trends and Investment Sentiment - Current market sentiment appears stretched, with profit-taking observed across various sectors, particularly in tech stocks like Microsoft and Nvidia [14] - The market is broadening due to economic growth, which is beneficial for the overall market and tech sector [14] - Significant capital expenditures in AI from major tech companies are expected to accelerate revenue growth, although immediate results may not be visible [16] Company-Specific Insights - Tesla is viewed as a key player in building infrastructure for future energy and transportation ecosystems, positioning itself beyond just electric vehicles [18][19] - The company's long-term vision aligns with the transition to a data and software-driven economy, making it a compelling investment opportunity [19]

[music] [music] My story begins in November 2022. I was wearing my Made in Potacot uh t-shirt and I was traveling to India for a meeting. Now this this trip coincided with the World Cup, the FIFA World Cup in Qatar.uh and we had a layover at the Hamad International Airport in Doha. Now, prior to this time, I've heard so much about Qatar, right. But the things I saw at the airport left me quite baffled.They had a driverless tram that took people from one terminal to the other. They had a tropical garden in t ...

Economic Indicators - The Commerce Department revised third-quarter U.S. GDP growth higher to 4.4%, above expectations of 4.3%, reinforcing confidence in economic resilience despite high interest rates [2][19] - Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rose 2.9%, matching forecasts and indicating contained price pressures [17][21] - Weekly jobless claims came in at 200,000, below forecasts, signaling a labor market that is gradually cooling rather than deteriorating [2][19] Stock Market Performance - The Russell 2000 index gained 1.25% to reach 2,731.77, leading the market rally, while the S&P 500 rose 0.70% to 6,924.01 and the Nasdaq Composite jumped 1.03% to 23,463.04 [1][21] - Trading volume surged nearly 16% on the Nasdaq, indicating heavy institutional participation in the market [1][21] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 435 points, or 0.89%, to a historic 49,512.87, supported by strength in industrials and healthcare [1][21] Sector Performance - Amgen's shares rose nearly 2% to a fresh all-time high near $350, driven by strong demand for its oncology and inflammation treatments, as well as optimism around its pipeline [11][20] - The broader biotech sector outperformed, with the SPDR S&P Biotech ETF gaining roughly 2.5%, as investors returned to biotechnology amid stabilizing valuations and improving expectations for regulatory approvals [12][20] - Abbott Laboratories saw its shares plunge more than 7% after reporting quarterly results that fell short of expectations, with weakness in diagnostics impacting sentiment [13][20] Technology Sector - Large technology stocks contributed to the market advance, with Meta Platforms jumping more than 3% ahead of its earnings report, despite analysts' caution [14][21] - Nvidia rose about 1%, while Tesla gained modestly, as traders focused on delivery trends and margin outlook in the competitive electric vehicle market [15][21] - Arm Holdings and Datadog posted strong gains, reflecting enthusiasm for semiconductor design and cloud software, while Intel and Netflix lagged [16][21] Commodity Markets - Oil prices eased, with WTI crude falling toward $59.60 a barrel, reflecting ample supply and muted near-term demand signals [10][21] - Gold prices moved higher, extending recent gains, while silver surged nearly 3%, outperforming most asset classes [7][21] - Natural gas jumped more than 4% due to tightening inventory expectations, contrasting with the overall softening in energy prices [10][21]

Core Viewpoint - The economy is showing resilience and does not appear to be worsening, according to Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase [1] Economic Outlook - Dimon highlighted that consumer spending remains strong, contributing to economic stability [1] - The job market continues to be robust, with low unemployment rates supporting economic growth [1] Banking Sector Insights - JPMorgan Chase is well-positioned to navigate potential economic challenges due to its diversified business model [1] - The bank's strong capital position allows it to continue lending and supporting clients during uncertain times [1]

Core Insights - Asia's economies have performed better than anticipated despite the challenges posed by U.S. tariff threats, but a slowdown in growth is expected for the next year [1] Economic Performance - The Asian Development Bank highlighted that the region's economies have shown resilience in the face of external pressures, particularly from U.S. trade policies [1] - Growth rates in Asia are projected to decline in the upcoming year, indicating a shift in economic momentum [1]

The economic resilience of earlier in the war is fading, even in Moscow https://t.co/Jo86SAybQI ...

UK Fiscal Policy and Debt Management - The UK Debt Management Office (DMO) has revised its gross gilt issuance target for the 2025/26 fiscal year to £303.7 billion, up from £299.1 billion planned in April and £299.6 billion projected earlier in the year, due to higher-than-expected public borrowing [2][8] - The DMO plans to sell £78.5 billion in medium-dated conventional gilts, £10.5 billion in long-dated conventional gilts, £19.4 billion of index-linked gilts, and £10.0 billion in green gilts in 2025/26 [2][8] UK Budget Measures - Chancellor Rachel Reeves announced a £150 reduction in average household energy bills starting in April, with no increases in VAT, income tax, or National Insurance Contributions [3][8] - Changes to Capital Gains Tax (CGT) relief will reduce the rate for sales to employee ownership trusts from 100% to 50%, with CGT receipts expected to rise to £30 billion by 2030 from £14 billion [3][8] - Additional measures include £1.3 billion for electric car grants, lower business tax rates for 750,000 high street businesses, and a gambling tax reform projected to raise £1 billion annually by 2031 [3][8] US Economic Data - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell to 216,000 for the week ending November 22, below the estimated 225,000, and down from the previous week's revised 222,000 [4][8] - Durable goods orders increased by 0.5% month-over-month in September, meeting expectations, with a 0.6% rise excluding transportation [5][8] China Vanke's Bond Proposal - China Vanke has proposed extending 2 billion yuan of bonds maturing on December 15, amidst ongoing challenges in China's real estate sector, with another 3.7 billion yuan bond maturing on December 28 [6][8] International Developments - The U.S. Department of Homeland Security announced the termination of Temporary Protected Status (TPS) for Haitian nationals, effective September 2, 2025 [7][8] - Sweden's Foreign Minister called for the EU to advance a 20th sanctions package against Russia to increase pressure on Moscow [7][8] Company-Specific News - Morgan Stanley has named ASML Holding N.V. as its 'Top Pick' in European semiconductors, citing strong demand in key chipmaking areas [9]

Economic Data Insights - September retail sales data is crucial for understanding consumer spending resilience ahead of the holiday shopping season, with both headline and core retail sales being analyzed for consumer behavior amidst economic uncertainties [1] - The upcoming consumer confidence report will provide additional context on household sentiment regarding current conditions and future expectations, which could influence market stability [1] - A significant convergence of economic data is expected on Wednesday, including Q3 GDP revision, Core PCE inflation data, durable goods orders, and initial jobless claims, all of which could lead to market volatility [3] Company Earnings and Sector Analysis - Earnings reports from Dell, Workday, and Zscaler will shed light on enterprise technology spending, particularly in areas like PC demand, cloud-based software, and cybersecurity investments, which are critical amid economic uncertainties [4] - Alibaba's earnings will provide insights into Chinese consumer behavior and e-commerce trends, especially in light of government stimulus measures and trade tensions with the U.S., with a focus on Singles' Day performance and holiday expectations [6] - Deere's earnings will offer contrasting insights into North American agricultural equipment demand and broader industrial equipment spending, which are indicators of business investment trends [6] Market Dynamics and Trading Environment - The Thanksgiving week presents unique market dynamics due to reduced liquidity, which can amplify price movements, making it critical for buyers to defend lower levels after last week's technical breakdown [7] - Investors are closely monitoring whether growth stocks can find support or if there will be a continued rotation into defensive sectors, especially given the upcoming economic data and earnings reports [7] - The holiday trading dynamics, combined with critical economic data releases, create potential for significant market movements despite the shortened trading schedule [7]