SCARLETT: FROM NEW YORK CITY, I'M SCARLET FU. THE ONE HOUR ADDITION OF "BLOOMBERG REAL YIELD" STARTS RIGHT NOW. COMING UP, THE SUPREME COURT STRIKES DOWN PRESIDENT TRUMP'S GLOBAL TARIFFS, SENDING TREASURIES DOWN AND YIELDS UP.WHILE STUBBORN INFLATION DATA COUPLED WITH WEAKER GDP SIGNALS THE FED CAN AFFORD TO TAKE ITS TIME LOWERING INTEREST RATES. AND THE FALLOUT FROM BLUE OWL'S DECISION TO RESTRICT WITHDRAWALS FROM ONE OF ITS PRIVATE CREDIT FUNDS. A WEAKENING CASE FOR IMMEDIATE FED RATE CUTS IS THE BIG ISSU ...

The central bank's preferred inflation gauge is expected to show prices rose faster in December. ...

Home equity rates fell this week, reaching their lowest levels in about three years. The $30,000 home equity line of credit fell one basis point to 7.31%, according to Bankrate’s national survey of lenders. Meanwhile, the five-year $30,000 home equity loan fell three basis points to 7.89%. While rates can influence the home equity product you decide to take, they’re not the only factor at play. Homeowners generally hold substantial equity, but growth is moderating in some parts of the country, says Kenon ...

Predict what happens if the Fed injects $16 billion into the markets tomorrow 🇺🇸 https://t.co/FPOQeo5DCQ ...

Core Viewpoint - Newmont Corp (NYSE:NEM) shares are experiencing downward pressure due to market closures for the Lunar New Year in Asia and investor caution ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting minutes [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Precious metals, including gold, have shown volatility, with gold prices recently fluctuating from over $5,595 an ounce to around $4,400 within two days [2] - Traders are adopting a cautious stance as they await insights from the Federal Reserve's January meeting minutes, especially with a leadership transition on the horizon [3] Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, anticipate inflation to decrease towards 2% by mid-year, although some policymakers seek clearer evidence before making decisions [4] - The Fed's preferred inflation measure, the PCE index, has remained around 2.8% since May, with little improvement expected in the upcoming December data [4] Group 3: Technical Analysis of Newmont - Newmont's stock is currently under bearish pressure, trading below key moving averages, which may indicate potential weakness [5] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is neutral, suggesting a lack of strong momentum, while the MACD indicates bearish pressure, favoring sellers [6] - Key support for Newmont is at $108.00, while resistance is at $135.00; a break below support could lead to a significant decline, whereas a move above resistance could indicate recovery [7] Group 4: Stock Performance - Over the past year, Newmont's stock has increased by 159.29%, recovering from a 52-week low of $41.23, but its current position near a high of $134.88 raises sustainability concerns [8] - The stock is currently trading at 87.4% of its 52-week range, indicating it is near its highs and may be vulnerable to pullbacks if momentum cannot be maintained [9] - As of the latest publication, Newmont shares were down 3.10% at $121.90 [10]

The dollar may fall 10% this year as there’s a risk the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates more deeply than markets anticipate once the next chair of the central bank takes over, according to State Street's Lee Ferridge https://t.co/XmRnfrGwd1 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Company/Industry Involved - The discussion revolves around the Federal Reserve and its monetary policy, particularly focusing on the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the Fed Chair. Core Insights and Arguments - **Rate Cuts Expectation**: The nomination of Kevin Warsh does not alter the expectation for two additional rate cuts in the second half of 2026, driven by disinflation [5][7][9] - **Policy Framework Shift**: Any significant changes in the Fed's policy framework are anticipated to occur gradually through balance sheet policy rather than through interest rate adjustments [5][7][8] - **Volatility in Macro Markets**: A Federal Reserve led by Warsh is expected to allow for higher volatility and greater signaling qualities in macro markets, potentially steepening the yield curve due to a smaller Fed footprint [5][19][20] - **Balance Sheet Critique**: Warsh has criticized the Fed's balance sheet as "bloated" and advocates for a reduction to mitigate inflation risks and market distortions [10][12][13] - **Interest Rate Policy**: Warsh's views suggest that lower interest rates should accompany a smaller balance sheet, which he believes would enhance price stability and credit transmission [11][12] - **Regulatory Changes**: Warsh's preference for less regulation could positively impact MBS investors, particularly if there are changes to the Basel Endgame proposal that would lower risk weights for loans [33] Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - **Investor Sentiment**: Surveys indicate that individual investors are more concerned about inflation than Fed policy, suggesting that the Fed's actions may not be a primary focus for retail investors [35][36] - **MBS Market Impact**: The likelihood of the Fed ending MBS run-off has decreased, and the bar for restarting QE, especially in MBS, is now higher [34] - **Future Fed Actions**: Speculation about the Fed's approach could influence the shape of the yield curve and swap spread curve until Warsh's intentions are publicly clarified [22][29] - **Communication Strategy**: A Warsh-led Fed may adopt fewer communications with the public, which could lead to more market-driven assessments of economic data and policy reactions [21][24] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the Federal Reserve's future under Kevin Warsh's potential leadership, focusing on monetary policy, market implications, and investor sentiment.

Core Viewpoint - Kevin Warsh is set to take on the challenging role of chairman of the Federal Reserve, balancing his hawkish stance on inflation with the economic growth ambitions of President Trump [1][12]. Group 1: Background and Experience - Warsh has been preparing for his role at the Fed for decades, understanding the importance of maintaining low inflation while promoting strong employment [2]. - He previously served as a Fed governor during the 2008 financial crisis, playing a crucial role in stabilizing the economy [3]. - His experience as an investment banker at Morgan Stanley provides him with valuable insights into the financial sector's impact on the overall economy [3]. Group 2: Critique of Fed Policies - Warsh has criticized past Fed chairs for continuing to stimulate the economy through low interest rates and money printing, which he believes has led to runaway inflation [5][6]. - He has expressed concerns about the Fed's involvement in social issues and its deviation from its primary mandate of controlling inflation [7]. Group 3: Current Economic Context - Inflation has surged to 9%, significantly impacting the working class, and Warsh's warnings about inflation have become a reality [10]. - The Fed's previous policies under Jerome Powell have resulted in elevated prices, complicating the economic landscape for the incoming chairman [11]. Group 4: Warsh's Approach as Chairman - Warsh is expected to navigate the delicate balance of lowering short-term interest rates while reducing the Fed's balance sheet to control inflation [15]. - His strategy aims to appease both President Trump's desire for lower rates and the bond market's need for stability, particularly concerning the 10-year Treasury yields [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - Mortgage rates are expected to drift lower through 2026, but a dramatic decline is not anticipated [1] Current Rates - As of January 2026, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is between 6.09% and 6.19%, which is near a three-year low but still significantly higher than rates in the early 2020s [2] 2026 Forecast - The average 30-year mortgage rate is projected to be between 6.0% and 6.3% for 2026, with some optimistic projections suggesting rates could dip below 6% temporarily [3][4] Agency Predictions - Fannie Mae predicts rates will end 2026 around 5.9%, while the Mortgage Bankers Association forecasts closer to 6.4%. Other analysts estimate rates between 6.1% and 6.3%, indicating uncertainty in economic factors [4] Influencing Factors - Three main factors are influencing mortgage rate predictions: [5] - **Federal Reserve Policy**: Rate cuts in 2024 and 2025 have helped lower long-term rates, and if the Fed maintains or cuts rates in 2026, it could support small declines in mortgage costs. However, the 10-year Treasury bond yields remain high compared to pandemic lows [6] - **Inflation and Economic Conditions**: Moderating inflation could lead to lower rates, but strong job data or persistent inflation may keep rates higher. Economic surprises could quickly shift rate predictions [7]

In a week of stock market newsworthiness, the hits keep coming this Friday morning. President Trump’s new Fed Chair has been announced: former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh. We also see a key wholesale inflation report hitting the tape for December, along with Big Oil companies reporting Q4 earnings results.Ahead of the opening bell, the Dow is -250 points, the S&P 500 is -35, the Nasdaq -180 and the small-cap Russell 2000 -30. This is a rather inauspicious start to the trading day, but we’re thus far flat for t ...