The past few weeks felt like an economic black hole. Every month, we rely on a steady stream of official government numbers to make AP Charts and evaluate where we stand. But when the longest government shutdown in history began on October 1st, the data stream froze. That delay created uncertainty in markets, complicated decisions for an already divided Federal Reserve. That left us wondering when AP Charts would be back on the schedule. Now that government workers are back in the office, the data flood is ...

Traders Pare Bets on December Fed Cut - Bloomberg Surveillance https://t.co/HpQma0nuC3 ...

Market analysts are divided on whether the current market cycle will extend through 2027 or collapse into a bear market during 2026. Bulls argue that loosening Federal Reserve policy and pending liquidity injections create conditions for continued growth, while bears point to historical patterns that have preceded every previous downturn. The Federal Reserve reduced interest rates by 0.25% on Oct. 29 rate cut and announced it will halt its balance sheet reduction on Dec. 1 balance sheet policy. Bitcoin fe ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is navigating economic challenges with a focus on labor market conditions and inflation data, despite criticisms of its policy approach [1][2][11]. Inflation and Economic Data - Current inflation rates are reported at 3% year-over-year, with core CPI also at 3%, indicating persistent inflation concerns [4][10]. - Grocery prices have increased by 3.2% over the past year, reflecting ongoing public concern about inflation [5]. - The Federal Reserve anticipates inflation will decrease, with forecasts suggesting a return to target levels [10][12]. Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve is considering cutting policy rates in December, based on data indicating that inflation will eventually decline [11][12]. - There is a belief that tariffs have a minor and temporary effect on inflation, and the Fed should focus on broader economic indicators [3][6][9]. Economic Growth Projections - The Federal Reserve's long-term growth forecast is set at 1.8%, which some analysts argue is overly conservative given current economic policies [13][14]. - There is optimism regarding potential productivity gains from technological advancements, although immediate impacts may not be seen [15][16]. Regulatory Environment - Deregulation is viewed as a means to lower capital costs and stimulate economic growth, paralleling the effects of interest rate cuts [21][22]. - The Federal Reserve staff considers the impact of deregulation and tax incentives when estimating potential GDP growth [20][21].

Core Inflation Insights - Core inflation remains at 3%, with some components coming in lower than expected [1][2] - The inflation rate excluding tariffs is estimated to be around 2.3% to 2.4%, which is close to the 2% target [5][6] Goods and Services Inflation - Goods prices are increasing due to tariffs, contrasting with a long-term trend of mild deflation in goods [3][5] - Housing services inflation is decreasing and is expected to continue this trend, which is a positive sign [3][4] - Non-housing services inflation has been stable but does not provide significant signals about economic tightness [4][9] Labor Market and Economic Policy - The labor market is not perceived as overly tight, which reduces the risk of persistent inflation [7][10] - Current monetary policy is described as modestly restrictive, contributing to a gradually cooling economy and labor market [10][11] Future Inflation Expectations - There is a commitment to return inflation to the 2% target, with market surveys indicating credibility in this commitment [11]

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The economy is roaring, incomes are rising, and small business confidence is at the highest level in over a decade. So the confidence levels which they do, which mean something they think over the last ten years, I don't think they go beyond that. We have the highest level of confidence in our economy.Gasoline prices are way down. Grocery prices are way down. Energy prices are way down. Mortgage rates are down.We have a real stiff at the Federal Reserve. I can't help them. But he's going to be leaving soon. ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's policy decisions may be influenced by the current high stock market performance, with discussions among Fed officials about whether financial conditions are too restrictive or not [2][5][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Perspective - The New York Fed President John Williams indicated that he does not believe the markets are being restricted, suggesting a focus on credit markets rather than equity markets [2][3]. - There is a significant debate within the Fed regarding the restrictiveness of current monetary policy, with some members advocating for further rate cuts while others are more cautious [6][9]. - The minutes from the Fed's meetings show a roughly even split among members on the desire to ease monetary policy, with some members indicating a preference for two more rate cuts this year [7][9]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Atlanta Fed's growth estimate of 3.8% for the quarter coincides with the stock market reaching an all-time high, complicating criticisms of the Fed's monetary policy [4][5]. - Current economic conditions are characterized by low spreads and yields in credit markets, indicating that financial conditions may not be as tight as perceived [3][5]. - There are concerns about inflationary pressures as businesses work through inventory accumulated in anticipation of tariffs, which may challenge the Fed's goal of reaching a 2% inflation target [10][11].

Meanwhile, the Fed minutes out today reflecting division little bit over the direction of rates. A slim majority of Fed governors expecting two more cuts this year, but the central bank overall currently dealing with a darth of data. Darth Darth Darth Darth Vader.Darth thanks to the government shutdown. I mean, seriously, the September jobs report. Darth of I mean don't give me Don't give me the daggers.It's Darth. Yes, it is. That's it.Darth is from the movie. Is he Lwig or whatever you seen earlier today. ...

Listen and subscribe to Stocks In Translation on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you find your favorite podcast. The US government is shut down. So what does this all mean for Wall Street? In this episode of Stocks in Translation, RSM Chief Economist Joe Brusuelas joins host Jared Blikre and Senior Reporter Allie Canal to discuss the current economic outlook and how it could be impacted by the government shutdown. Brusuelas also offers top insight on Federal Reserve policy, the bond market, and the rol ...