Core Insights - Microsoft is experiencing significant long-term warning signals as a result of a sharp selloff, pushing the stock into a critical technical zone [1] - The stock has fallen to $397.29, down 7.67% in the latest monthly candle, breaking below the $410 level and testing a key long-term support zone [2] Technical Analysis - The focus is on the 50-month moving average (MA), which has served as Microsoft's primary structural support since December 2011, previously leading to bullish reversals [3] - A confirmed monthly close below the 50-month MA would indicate a major technical breakdown, with the next key support at the 100-month moving average near $300, aligning with significant Fibonacci retracement levels [4] - The monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) is testing the crucial 44 support level, with a potential break below opening the path toward the oversold threshold of 30, which could coincide with a price decline toward the 100-month moving average [5] Financial Performance - Following the fiscal Q2 earnings report in late January, Microsoft reported a 17% revenue growth to $81.3 billion, exceeding estimates, but concerns arose from a $37.5 billion capital expenditure primarily for AI data centers and GPUs [6] - Despite robust demand for AI and cloud services, heavy spending has led to skepticism among investors, with some major funds trimming positions due to fears of delayed returns and potential margin pressure [7]

Rising ABCD Pattern TargetsA rising ABCD pattern on the chart marks recent swings, but considers the $4,842 swing low to be contained within the CD leg of the formation. This is a judgement call, based on the decisiveness expressed in the first leg up from the bottom. With the measurement, an initial upside target is shown at $5,345. That is where the CD advance matches the rise in price seen in the AB leg.Once that occurs, a potential pivot is identified. This target has greater significance in addition to ...

Core Insights - Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a significant decline of 23.4% in 2025, with current trading prices at $67,214, indicating sustained market pressure and raising concerns about the potential continuation of the downtrend [1] Investor Sentiment - Investor flow data indicates a shift towards bearish sentiment, as new investor inflows have turned negative, suggesting that the ongoing sell-off is not being countered by new capital entering the market [2] - In bull markets, capital typically increases during price declines, while early bear markets are characterized by capital withdrawal amid weakness [2] Market Behavior - Current market conditions resemble post-all-time-high transitions, where marginal buyers exit and price movements are driven by internal rotation rather than net inflows, indicating early bear market conditions with contracting liquidity [3] - Without renewed inflows, any upward price movements are likely to be corrective rather than indicative of a trend reversal [3] Technical Analysis - Historical cycle data suggests that Bitcoin may face further downside risk, as previous major bear markets saw prices bottom below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement from prior cycle peaks [4] - The most recent bear market bottom was approximately 45% below the 0.618 retracement threshold, indicating a pattern of progressively shallower declines [5] - If Bitcoin were to bottom 30% below the current cycle high's 0.618 retracement level, it could still reach around $42,000 [5][6] Market Cycle Indicators - The Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator shows that bearish conditions began in October 2025, but it has not yet entered an extreme bear phase, suggesting that further declines may still be possible [7]

Core Insights - Bitcoin's newest investors have been experiencing unrealized losses for eight consecutive weeks since November 2024, with short-term holders needing prices to recover above $98,000 to return to profitability [1][2] - The aggregate entry price for recent investors is $98,300, which is a critical threshold for market sentiment, historically indicating a transition from corrective phases to durable uptrends when reclaimed [2] - The $98,000 level is significant due to large option demand around January 30th strikes, which could lead to accelerated upside momentum if breached [3] Market Dynamics - Market makers with short positions on calls at $98,000 and $100,000 may need to buy Bitcoin to maintain delta-neutral hedging, potentially amplifying breakout moves as prices approach these strikes [4] - Bitcoin tested resistance near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, reaching approximately $97,000 before a sharp pullback to $91,800, resulting in $233 million in long liquidations across derivatives markets [4] - Despite volatility, the technical structure remains intact with higher highs and higher lows on daily charts, and approximately $250 million in net long positions were filled near $92,000 during the dip, indicating institutional buyers viewed the pullback as an accumulation opportunity [5] Broader Market Context - The broader crypto market continues to underperform traditional risk assets amid multiple converging headwinds, indicating structural challenges [6]

Core Viewpoint - The bullish trend for gold is expected to continue, with potential resistance levels identified at $4,664, $4,687, and $4,713, contingent upon a closing price above $4,643 [1] Group 1: Price Targets and Projections - A new high above $4,643 would enable gold to challenge resistance at $4,664, $4,687, and $4,713, with $4,687 being a significant target based on a 161.8% Fibonacci extension [1] - The long-term projection includes a target of $4,766, which corresponds to a 361.8% projection of a rising ABCD pattern connecting the 2018 low of $1,160 and the 2022 low of $1,615 [2] Group 2: Support Levels - Key support levels for potential pullbacks include the recent high of $4,550, the 10-day average at $4,514, and a minor swing high at $4,500, with the 20-day average at $4,554 serving as a critical support level [3] - As long as gold remains above the 20-day average on a daily closing basis, the bullish trend is expected to persist [3] Group 3: Market Strength Indicators - The recent pullback in October found support near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating strong underlying demand for gold [4] - A breakout from a rising trend channel confirmed support at a price area similar to the 20-day average, suggesting a strengthening trend [4]

Core Viewpoint - Continued strength in gold prices is expected following a long-term breakout that began in December, with recent price movements confirming the completion of a pullback near key Fibonacci retracement levels and moving averages [1][2]. Price Levels and Support - Current support levels to monitor during potential pullbacks include the previous high of $4,550, an interim swing high of $4,500, and the rising 10-day moving average at $4,556 [2]. - The bullish reversal signs after the 38.2% retracement indicate underlying strength in the trend, suggesting further upside potential [2]. Resistance and Breakout Potential - A breakout above Tuesday's high of $4,635 could signal a continuation of the bullish trend, with the next resistance zone identified between $4,664 and $4,713 [3][4]. - The proximity of these targets suggests a range rather than individual price points, with resistance expected upon reaching $4,664 and a decisive breakout above $4,713 indicating significant strength [4]. Demand Indicators - The weekly chart shows strong demand for gold, with dynamic support holding during pullbacks above the 10-week average and a breakout confirmed on a weekly close above the previous high of $4,550 [5].

Core Insights - Pi Coin has experienced renewed selling pressure, with its price dropping below the $0.200 level, indicating weak market confidence among investors [1] - Recent indicators suggest a potential shift in sentiment, with momentum indicators showing a bullish crossover, signaling strengthening upside momentum after a prolonged bearish phase [2][3] Market Activity - Holders of Pi Coin are actively attempting to stabilize the price, indicating a potential recovery as buyers regain control [3] - The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has shifted from outflows to inflows, confirming net buying activity and highlighting growing conviction among Pi Coin holders [5] Price Levels - Pi Coin is currently trading near $0.207, just below the $0.213 resistance level, which is significant as it aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement [6] - Reclaiming the $0.213 level as support could strengthen the recovery structure, with potential advances toward $0.224 if buying pressure continues [7] Risks and Support Levels - If sentiment shifts negatively again, Pi Coin could face renewed selling pressure, potentially dropping below $0.207, with initial support at $0.199 and further support at $0.188 [8]

Group 1: Market Overview - Bitcoin, gold, and silver experienced a surge in strength ahead of a potential Fed rate cut, with silver breaking above $60/oz for the first time, up +108% in 2025 [1] - The Fed's interest rate decision is a significant macroeconomic event for Bitcoin and commodity safe havens, with an 87.6% chance of a rate cut according to the CME FedWatch Tool [2][3] Group 2: Impact of Rate Cuts - A Fed rate cut typically benefits Bitcoin by injecting liquidity into financial markets, with gold being the primary beneficiary and silver often lagging initially but outperforming later [3][8] - Markets are already pricing in the expected rate cut, with traders front-running the event [4] Group 3: Bitcoin Price Analysis - Bitcoin is trading with a bullish bias, consolidating within an ascending channel since a low of $80,600 on November 21, indicating potential for further upside [5] - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows rising momentum for Bitcoin, with immediate resistance at the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $97,015 and a critical Fibonacci retracement level at $98,018 [6] - A breakout above these levels with strong volume could signal a strengthening trend, with potential targets of $103,399 and higher [7]

Core Insights - Bitcoin's recent surge above $92,000 has generated optimism among market participants, with expectations that the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting could trigger a significant rally [1][4][9] Federal Reserve's Role - Analysts from the London Crypto Club suggest that a liquidity boost from the Federal Reserve may serve as a strong catalyst for Bitcoin's price increase, predicting a "dovish surprise" from the Fed [3][9] - The Fed is anticipated to implement a 25 basis points rate cut, with an 86% probability according to the CME FedWatch tool, and even higher at 94% according to Polymarket [5][9] - Historically, lower interest rates have favored risk assets like Bitcoin by making bonds less attractive and encouraging capital flow into higher-yielding markets [6] Market Conditions - Bitcoin is currently at a critical level, with analysts indicating that it must maintain its position above the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement zone to avoid a decline back to April lows near $76,000 [7][8] - The market is eager for a clear macro signal to reset its direction after a turbulent two months that nearly erased all gains for the year [4][9]

Group 1 - The recent price action indicates a rejection at resistance levels, with a swing low of $3,886 and a high of $4,006, forming a small bear flag pattern [1] - Gold has confirmed underlying selling pressure as it fell below the 20-day average, indicating a potential continuation of the bearish trend [2] - A breakdown below $3,915 will further confirm selling pressure and put the support level at $3,886 at risk [2] Group 2 - Initial downside targets are identified around $3,846 to $3,844, supported by a 50% retracement and the 50-day average [3] - If the support zone fails, the next target is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $3,720 [3] - The bull trend that began in late August has not approached the 50-day average as support, which is expected to be tested soon [4] Group 3 - A bearish signal is confirmed with a daily close below the lower boundary line of the bear flag, indicating a preference for sellers [5] - The 50-day convergence zone is critical; holding this level maintains the trend, while a break risks the 61.8% retracement [5] - Today's bearish action persists until the price clears the high of $4,006 [5]