Mark, help us focus back on the macro themes. US futures look pretty flat after a day yesterday where we saw investors trying to draw a line in the sand anthropic being cast as a collaborative tool rather than something that's going to destroy software everywhere. What do you make of the latest price action around equity markets.I think that what we're seeing in markets so far this year and really the last few months is going to be the backdrop for the next, you know, long term, for the next maybe year, may ...

Economic Growth Outlook - The potential growth in the U.S. economy is projected to exceed 2% and approach 4% by the end of the decade, driven by advancements in technology such as AI, semiconductors, and robotics [2][3]. - Current economic conditions indicate a growth acceleration, with Q3 growth recorded at 4.3% and Q4 estimated at 3.7%, contradicting previous recession predictions [8][9]. Interest Rates and Inflation - Higher potential growth suggests that the equilibrium real interest rates, including the Fed funds rate, should also be higher, despite lower inflation expectations [4][5]. - The argument that lower inflation justifies a lower Fed funds rate is considered flawed if growth remains strong, indicating that interest rates may need to be maintained or increased [5][7]. Technological Impact - The acceleration of growth is attributed to ongoing advancements in AI and other technologies, which are expected to create an investment boom and increase labor demand [9][17]. - The narrative has shifted from a focus on potential economic downturns to recognizing the positive impacts of technological advancements on growth and inflation [10][14]. Labor Market Dynamics - While there may be initial job losses due to technological advancements, the demand for labor is expected to increase as investments in data centers and AI expand [17][18]. - The long-term outlook suggests that while unemployment may rise in a high-growth scenario, the overall economic environment will be more favorable due to significant growth rates [19][23]. Government Response and Social Implications - The current system already functions as a means-tested Universal Basic Income (UBI), which may need to be expanded to address the challenges of permanent unemployment [20][22]. - Redistribution of wealth from the affluent to the broader population is seen as essential to maintain aggregate demand and prevent social unrest [22][24].

We saw that week number out of Japan in terms of growth, are we primed basically for sort of a very bullish case within Japan for the new sort of prime minister to come in and really do some damage. Or do you think that maybe that's oversold a bit. Yeah, I think there's definitely a bullish case to be made for Japan.You kind of see that in the post-election reaction to equity markets. I think the bigger question for the market is, you know, what happens with borrowing costs. You know, we've done this kind o ...

Let's get uh right to our next guest here at Pebble Beach. David Solomon is chairman and CEO of Goldman Sachs. And you're killing it, David.It's been eight years. >> It's we're in the we're in the eighth year. Joe, >> I think there were a couple years where maybe you wouldn't have wanted to be out here at a at a at a golf tournament maybe.>> Yeah. I mean, I you know, there there there are times when I think it's great to be out here and there are times where you've got to have your head down and and focused ...

Let's get uh right to our next guest here at Pebble Beach. David Solomon is chairman and CEO of Goldman Sachs. And you're killing it, David.It's been eight years. >> It's we're in the we're in the eighth year. Joe, >> I think there were a couple years where maybe you wouldn't have wanted to be out here at a at a at a golf tournament maybe.>> Yeah. I mean, I you know, there there there are times when I think it's great to be out here and there are times where you've got to have your head down and and focused ...

The yen is on track for its biggest weekly gain since November 2024 on confidence Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s election victory will allow her to expand fiscal stimulus while maintaining the trust of financial markets https://t.co/DBPl3VUFUn ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Chinese economy** and its macroeconomic data and policies over the past year, drawing lessons and implications for investors in 2026 [6][2]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Data Quality Issues**: - There are significant concerns regarding the quality of Chinese macroeconomic data, with patterns indicating increased quality issues in 2025. For example, the NBS Manufacturing PMI showed a consistent rise at quarter-end, suggesting potential manipulation to boost GDP figures [7][8]. - Fixed asset investment (FAI) data showed double-digit declines year-over-year, which may reflect statistical corrections rather than actual downturns in investment [8]. 2. **Divergence in Economic Indicators**: - The Chinese economy is experiencing pronounced divergence, with export value increasing by 6.6% year-over-year while property FAI dropped by 37% in December 2025. The IT sector expanded by 11%, contrasting with a 1% contraction in construction [5][13][15]. 3. **High-Tech Sector Growth**: - The government's push for technology and innovation is yielding results, with significant production increases in sectors like electric vehicles and semiconductors. The drag from the property market on the economy is expected to peak, with projections indicating a reduction in its negative impact on GDP growth from 2 percentage points in 2025 to 1.5 percentage points in 2026 [20][21]. 4. **Conservative Fiscal Policy**: - Policymakers have been conservative in implementing fiscal stimulus due to concerns over the rising government debt-to-GDP ratio, which has implications for domestic demand and overall economic growth. China's nominal GDP grew by only 4% in 2025, while the fiscal deficit was estimated at 11% of GDP [28][29]. 5. **Impact of US Tariffs on Exports**: - Despite higher US tariffs, Chinese export volume increased by over 8% in 2025. However, the data indicates that US tariffs did have a moderating effect on export growth during periods of heightened trade tensions [35][36]. Additional Important Insights - **Investor Considerations**: - Investors should carefully analyze data to understand the bifurcated nature of the Chinese economy, where both bullish and bearish narratives can be supported by data [39]. - There are signs that segments of the economy that have been depressed may be bottoming out, suggesting potential investment opportunities [40]. - The threshold for meaningful policy easing in the property market is rising, indicating that the government may focus on managing the downturn rather than reversing it [45][46]. - **Export Growth Projections**: - The baseline expectation for Chinese export volume growth in 2026 is around 5%, with potential upside risks given the resilience shown in 2025 despite tariffs [48]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the Chinese economy.

Core Viewpoint - The dollar is weakening while markets anticipate increased fiscal stimulus in Japan following the recent election results, which may influence the USDJPY exchange rate [1] Group 1: Currency Market Dynamics - The USDJPY is currently at 156, reflecting a 0.8% decline in the dollar against the yen [1] - The WSJ Dollar Index has decreased by 0.6%, indicating a broader weakening of the dollar [1] Group 2: Market Predictions and Risks - Goldman Sachs' Karen Fishman predicts that implied volatility will rise, with expectations for the USDJPY to move "towards and through 160" [1] - There is an elevated risk of intervention in the currency market as the dollar weakens, which may lead to cautious market behavior [1]

>> THIS IS "HORIZONS MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA." VICTORY RALLY. THE YEN EDGES HAGER AFTER PRIME MINISTER TAYESHI’S L. D.P. ACHIEVES THE BIGGEST POST-WAR VICTORY FOR A SINGLE PARTY IN A POST-WAR ELECTION. IRAN IS DESCRIBING ITS NUCLEAR TALKS WITH WASHINGTON AS A STEP FORWARD WITH ANOTHER MEETING SET FOR THIS WEEK.AND WE HEAR FROM SAUDI ARABIA’S FINANCE MINISTER, MUHAMMAD AL-JADAN AS THE KINGDOM PLANS TO RELEASE AN UPDATED STRATEGY FOR ITS $2 TRILLION ECONOMIC DIVERSIFY CASE AGENDA. IT’S JUST PAST 9:00 IN THE EM ...

♪ ANNOUNCER: NEWSMAKERS AND MARKET MOVERS. THIS IS "THE PULSE" WITH FRANCINE LACQUA. FRANCINE: WELL, GOOD MORNING, EVERYONE.WELCOME TO "THE PULSE." I’M FRANCINE LACQUA HERE IN LONDON. AFTER MONTHS OF INTERVIEWS AND EXPECTATION, PRESIDENT TRUMP WILL ANNOUNCE THE NOMINEE. KEVIN WASH WOULD SUCCEED JEROME POWELL WHO HAS BEEN CRITICIZED NOT CUTTING RATES FASTER.PRESIDENT TRUMP HAS BEEN SEARCHING FOR A UNICORN LOYALIST AND IN THE PRESIDENT’S MAGA BASE AND GET PAST THE SENATE CONFIRMIZATION. DOES KEVIN WARSH TICK ...