We revise our baseline EUR-USD forecast, reflecting expectations of further USD weakness, by changing our end-2025 EUR-USD forecast to 1.20 (from 1.17), and end- 2026 to 1.25 (from 1.20). We do not make direct changes to other G10 FX forecasts. Accessible version World at a Glance Further Dollar Downside Key forecasts in FX, rates and commodities Amid growing concerns around stagflationary risks, we raise our EUR-USD forecast profile, as we are looking for additional USD softening. Since last month, we also ...

Group 1: Economic and Political Developments - President Trump vowed to remove homeless individuals from Washington D.C. and imprison criminals, despite the mayor's assertion that crime rates have not significantly increased [1] - The White House is preparing to deploy hundreds of National Guard troops to Washington, although the final decision on troop numbers and specific roles is still pending [1] - The U.S. trade representative confirmed that a 15% tariff is not being imposed, leading to a significant drop in European exports to the U.S., particularly a 36% decline in automobile exports [2] Group 2: Market Reactions and Commodity Prices - Gold prices reached a record high due to tariff uncertainties, with futures rising over 2% before the White House clarified that no tariffs on gold would be imposed [2] - Gold closed at $3,397.79 per ounce, with a trading range between $3,379.26 and $3,408.18 per ounce, indicating strong demand for safe-haven assets [2] - The market is closely monitoring the implementation of tariff policies, changes in Federal Reserve personnel, and geopolitical risks [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis of Gold - The daily chart for gold shows an expanding BOLL channel and a KD death cross, while the four-hour chart indicates an upward BOLL channel and a KD golden cross [3] - The one-hour chart suggests a narrowing BOLL channel with a KD golden cross, indicating potential short-term upward movement [3] - The key support level for gold is identified at $3,350 per ounce, which is crucial for maintaining bullish momentum [3] Group 4: Trading Strategies - For gold, buy recommendations include entering at $3,365.00 with a stop loss of $7 and a take profit target of $3,400/$3,410 [5] - Another buy strategy suggests entering at $3,350.00 with the same stop loss and a take profit target of $3,395/$3,400 [5] - The strategies emphasize the importance of adjusting stop losses to mitigate risks while trading [20]

Group 1 - The spot gold price opened high on Monday, increasing by $17 to surpass $3220 per ounce, with a daily increase of 0.56% [1] - The previous closing price for gold was $3202.02, indicating a significant upward movement [1] - The trading range for gold during the day included a high of $3211.61 and a low of $3207.55 [1] Group 2 - Other commodities showed mixed performance, with UKOUSD down by 0.11% and USOUSD down by 0.19% [1] - The DXY index decreased by 0.14%, while AUDUSD, GBPUSD, and EURUSD showed slight increases [1] - Silver (XAGUSD) experienced a minor decline of 0.02% [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is likely to resume interest rate hikes if the economy meets expectations, indicating a high probability of rate increases after two pauses [1][3] - The BOJ is closely monitoring price trends due to high global economic uncertainty, which has influenced its recent decisions to pause rate hikes [1][3] - Japan's inflation rate is currently at 3.6%, with core CPI at 3.2%, indicating a high inflation environment that necessitates continued interest rate increases [4] Group 2 - The BOJ's monetary policy is the key factor determining the direction of the Japanese yen, with projected rate hikes of 20 basis points in March 2024, 15 basis points in July 2024, and 25 basis points in January 2025 [3] - The divergence in monetary policy between Japan and the U.S. suggests that the yen could benefit during a period of dollar weakness, as Japan's inflation remains elevated while the U.S. is reducing rates [4] - The USDJPY is currently in a significant bearish trend, with recent lows at 146.5 and 139.8, but has entered a rebound phase since April 22, 2024 [6]