Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage (NYSE:NGVC) Q4 2025 Earnings Call November 20, 2025 04:30 PM ET Company ParticipantsJessica Thiessen - VP and TreasurerChuck Cerankosky - Managing Director and PrincipalScott Mushkin - Founder and Managing PartnerRichard Hallé - CFOKemper Isely - Director and Co-PresidentOperatorGood day, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only m ...

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage (NYSE:NGVC) Q4 2025 Earnings Call November 20, 2025 04:30 PM ET Company ParticipantsJessica Thiessen - VP and TreasurerChuck Cerankosky - Managing Director and PrincipalScott Mushkin - Founder and Managing PartnerRichard Hallé - CFOKemper Isely - Director and Co-PresidentOperatorGood day, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage fourth quarter and fiscal year 2025 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only m ...

Summary of SunOpta FY Conference Call (November 18, 2025) Company Overview - **Company**: SunOpta (NasdaqGS:STKL) - **Industry**: Packaged Food and Beverage Key Points Industry and Market Dynamics - The consumer packaged goods (CPG) industry, including restaurants, faced challenges in 2025, with volume and traffic pressures [3][4] - SunOpta operates in growing categories, particularly plant-based beverages and fruit snacks, with the latter growing over 20% [4][5] - The plant-based beverage segment is experiencing high single-digit growth, supported by health and wellness trends [4][20] Demand and Capacity - SunOpta has pulled forward capital investments to meet increased demand, with fruit snack lines fully subscribed and aseptic processing lines 50% subscribed [5][14] - The company anticipates a 25% increase in fruit snack capacity, translating to approximately $40 million in annualized revenue [14] - Aseptic facility improvements are expected to yield a 10% capacity increase, equating to about $65 million in revenue potential [14] Operational Challenges - The company faced a $10 million headwind to EBITDA in Q4 due to operational complexities from increased volume and maintenance issues [6][11] - Wastewater system constraints at the Midlothian facility have impacted operations, but a solution is expected to be implemented by Q2 2026 [11][13] Financial Performance and Projections - SunOpta aims to achieve gross margins of over 20% by the second half of 2027, with expected improvements in Q3 and Q4 of 2026 [57] - The company maintains a leverage ratio of 2.8 times and prioritizes deleveraging while investing in capital projects [40][41] - Long-term ROIC targets are set at 16-18%, with both new projects expected to contribute positively [59] Customer and Market Position - SunOpta's customer base is diversified, with only one customer exceeding 10% of total revenue, indicating low customer concentration risk [26] - The company is well-positioned in the private label market, benefiting from a shift towards value among consumers [20][21] Innovation and R&D - SunOpta has a robust R&D team, with 21 food scientists dedicated to developing solutions for customer needs, including low-sugar and protein-infused products [51][30] - Continuous innovation is a key strategy for maintaining market share and meeting evolving consumer demands [30][32] Future Outlook - The company expects to see incremental progress in revenue and EBITDA growth, with a CAGR of 8-10% for revenue and 13-17% for EBITDA over the long term [65] - Key milestones include the resolution of wastewater issues, the ramp-up of new capital projects, and sustained revenue growth [62][64] Risks and Concerns - Potential risks include the competitive landscape and the possibility of new capacity from competitors, although current market conditions suggest limited new entrants [42][45] - The company is cautious about pricing strategies, ensuring that they maintain value while managing costs associated with tariffs and raw materials [48][60] Conclusion - SunOpta is positioned for growth in the packaged food and beverage industry, with strong demand in plant-based products and fruit snacks, supported by strategic investments and operational improvements [67]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net sales for Q3 2025 increased by 10% year-over-year to $12.9 million, with year-to-date sales up 15% to $36.5 million [3][12] - Gross profit for Q3 was $4.7 million, down 7% from the prior year, with gross margin contracting to 36.5% from 43% last year [5][14] - Net loss for Q3 was $1.0 million compared to a loss of $0.2 million in the prior year, primarily due to a $0.7 million impairment charge related to Picky Bars [16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Wholesale channel saw net sales increase by 39% in Q3 and 40% year-to-date, contributing 53% of net sales in Q3 [4][12] - E-commerce sales represented 47% of total net sales in Q3 but experienced an 11% decline year-over-year, primarily due to softness in the direct-to-consumer platform [5][14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported strong consumer demand for core products like Coffee Creamers and Functional Beverages, aligning with healthier lifestyle trends [4][6] - The Wholesale channel's growth reflects successful distribution expansion in grocery and club stores [3][4] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to transition to a Wholesale-led model, focusing on expanding distribution and product innovation [4][6] - A new Protein Coffee product is set to launch, marking the company's first entry into the dairy market, which is significantly larger than the plant-based market [8][49] - The decision to discontinue the Picky Bars brand will allow for a redirection of investments towards the core Laird Superfood brand [9][10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about navigating macroeconomic challenges and maintaining double-digit growth despite headwinds in the consumer economy [10][70] - The company expects to hold gross margins in the upper 30% range and achieve breakeven adjusted EBITDA for the full year [18][65] Other Important Information - The company recorded a $661,000 impairment charge related to Picky Bars intangible assets in Q3 [9] - Inventory was reduced by over $1 million in Q3, with expectations for improved cash flows as inventory continues to sell through [9][17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of timing on Q3 and Q4 results - Management confirmed that timing issues related to large wholesale customer orders impacted both Q3 and Q4, but long-term business health remains unaffected [20][24] Question: Trends in limited time offer products - Management noted a successful year for Pumpkin Spice Creamer, with strong sales despite a late start in distribution [38][39] Question: Strategy for Amazon sales to replace lost DTC sales - The company plans to focus on Amazon for online growth while maintaining DTC as a platform for broader product offerings and consumer education [40][44] Question: Future dairy product launches - Management confirmed plans for additional dairy products within the next 15 months, expanding the product line beyond Protein Coffee [54][55] Question: Tariff impacts and Club promotions - Tariffs have had a dynamic impact, with some key raw materials excluded from tariffs, and the company plans to continue executing its strategy in the Club channel [64][65]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3 2025, total sales reached $2.2 billion, an increase of $255 million or 13% year-on-year, driven by a 5.9% rise in comparable store sales [8][10] - Gross margin improved to 38.7%, up 60 basis points compared to the same period last year, primarily due to better shrink management [9][10] - Net income was $120 million, with diluted earnings per share of $1.22, reflecting a 34% increase year-on-year [10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - E-commerce sales grew by 21%, accounting for approximately 15.5% of total sales for the quarter [8] - Sprouts Brand sales now represent over 25% of total sales, indicating strong customer resonance with the brand [8][16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Customer traffic remained positive, contributing approximately 40% to the third quarter comparable sales [8] - The company opened nine new stores, ending the quarter with a total of 464 stores across 24 states [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to expand its store footprint, planning to open 37 new stores in 2025, exceeding the original target of 35 [11][21] - Focus on health and wellness trends continues, with over one-third of sales coming from organic products [15][16] - The loyalty program has been fully launched, with early indications of increased shopping frequency and sales per customer [18][56] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged a softening consumer backdrop and the challenges of lapping strong prior year comparisons [7][9] - For the full year, total sales growth is expected to be approximately 14%, with comparable sales around 7% [12] - The company remains confident in its ability to deliver stable earnings growth despite current pressures [14] Other Important Information - The company generated $577 million in operating cash flow year-to-date, allowing for self-funded capital expenditures of $194 million [11] - A $600 million revolving credit facility was closed, providing financial flexibility for growth [12] Q&A Session Summary Question: Concerns about competition affecting core consumers - Management noted that while there are competitive pressures, their strategy of launching innovative products and expanding store presence positions them well against competitors [25][26] Question: Unique drivers of business performance and customer spending behavior - Management acknowledged pockets of outsized growth but indicated that they do not see structural issues affecting customer retention or spending behavior [30][31] Question: Details on comp slowdown and regional differences - Management confirmed that the slowdown is primarily due to tough year-over-year comparisons and some softness in middle-income demographics [32][36] Question: Impact of loyalty program and future marketing strategies - Management expressed optimism about the loyalty program's potential to drive customer engagement and sales, emphasizing the importance of personalized marketing [56][58] Question: Competitive pricing dynamics in fresh produce - Management is closely monitoring pricing in competitive markets like Texas and believes their produce pricing remains a competitive advantage [93][94] Question: Supply chain and in-stock opportunities - Management highlighted ongoing efforts to improve supply chain efficiency and in-stock levels, particularly in the meat category [77][78]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3 2025, total sales reached $2.2 billion, an increase of $255 million or 13% year-on-year, driven by a 5.9% rise in comparable store sales [8][10] - Gross margin improved to 38.7%, up 60 basis points compared to the same period last year, primarily due to better shrink management [9][10] - Net income was $120 million, with diluted earnings per share of $1.22, reflecting a 34% increase year-on-year [10] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - E-commerce sales grew by 21%, accounting for approximately 15.5% of total sales for the quarter [8] - Sprouts Brand sales now represent over 25% of total sales, indicating strong customer resonance with the brand [8][16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Customer traffic remained positive, contributing approximately 40% to the third quarter comparable store sales [8] - The company opened nine new stores, ending the quarter with a total of 464 stores across 24 states [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to open 37 new stores in 2025, exceeding the original target of 35, and aims for 10% unit growth by 2027 [11][21] - The focus remains on health and wellness trends, with over one-third of sales coming from organic products [15][16] - The loyalty program has been fully launched, aiming to enhance customer engagement and personalization [18][56] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged a softening consumer backdrop and the challenges of lapping strong prior year comparisons [7][9] - For the full year, total sales growth is expected to be approximately 14%, with comparable sales around 7% [12] - The company remains confident in its ability to manage costs and maintain stable margins despite consumer pressures [14][35] Other Important Information - The company generated $577 million in operating cash flow year-to-date, allowing for self-funded capital expenditures of $194 million [11] - A $600 million revolving credit facility was closed, providing financial flexibility for growth [12] Q&A Session Summary Question: Concerns about competition affecting core consumers - Management noted that while there are competitive pressures, their strategy of launching innovative products and expanding store presence positions them well against competitors [24][25] Question: Unique drivers of business performance and customer spending behavior - Management acknowledged pockets of outsized growth but indicated that they do not see structural issues affecting customer retention or spending behavior [28][30] Question: Details on comp slowdown and regional differences - Management highlighted that the slowdown is more pronounced in middle-income and younger demographics, with traffic still positive but basket sizes decreasing [32][62] Question: Fourth quarter comp expectations and loyalty program impact - Management indicated cautious optimism regarding the loyalty program's potential to drive customer engagement and sales, with ongoing monitoring of consumer behavior [54][56] Question: Competitive pricing dynamics in fresh produce - Management confirmed that they closely monitor pricing in competitive markets like Texas and maintain a significant price gap over most grocery competitors [92][93]

Group 1: Government Shutdown Impact - The government shutdown is in its second day with minimal progress on a new spending bill, leading to concerns about its economic impact [2][10] - Hundreds of thousands of federal employees are furloughed, which may reduce consumer spending on various goods and services [3][28] - Despite the shutdown, equity markets remain resilient, with major indices closing at record highs, indicating that investors are currently overlooking the shutdown's effects [4][9] Group 2: Market Performance and Economic Indicators - The S&P 500 has shown upward momentum, gaining approximately 2.1% as it approaches the open, while the NASDAQ is also performing well, driven by AI-related stocks [6][9] - Tesla's sales rose by 7% year-over-year, exceeding analyst forecasts, which may indicate strong consumer demand despite broader economic concerns [14] - The Challenger report indicated that planned layoffs in Q3 totaled 22,118, marking a 16% increase year-over-year, suggesting potential weaknesses in the labor market [12] Group 3: Sector Performance - The technology sector, particularly AI-related companies like Nvidia and AMD, is experiencing significant momentum, with Nvidia's valuation reaching around $500 billion [7][36] - The healthcare sector has seen a recent rally but is currently experiencing a pullback, with a noted decline of about 0.6% at the open [8] - Consumer staples, particularly PepsiCo, are facing challenges due to cautious spending from low-income consumers, which may lead to an earnings miss [41][42] Group 4: Federal Reserve and Economic Outlook - The lack of government economic data during the shutdown raises questions about the Federal Reserve's potential actions regarding interest rates [11][29] - Analysts suggest that if the Fed does not cut rates as expected, it could negatively impact stock valuations [30][33] - The market is currently focused on earnings performance rather than solely on Fed actions, indicating that strong earnings could support continued market growth [32][33] Group 5: Private Market Valuations - OpenAI's valuation has reached $500 billion, making it the world's most valuable startup, surpassing SpaceX [55] - The trend of high valuations in private markets raises concerns about potential bubble-like conditions, as companies like Tether also report significant profits [61][64] - Investors are exploring ways to access private companies through private exchanges, although these markets are less liquid than public markets [57][58]

Core Insights - Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH) and Monster Beverage Corporation (MNST) are leading players in the beverage industry, particularly in the energy and functional market [1][3] - The beverage industry is shifting towards wellness, with increasing consumer demand for healthier, functional drinks [2][9] - Both companies are adapting their product portfolios to align with this growing consumer preference for wellness-focused beverages [2][9] Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH) - Celsius specializes in healthier, nutritional functional beverages aimed at consumers seeking alternatives to traditional energy drinks [4][5] - The company has established strategic partnerships, such as with PepsiCo, and acquired Alani Nutrition to enhance its distribution and market presence [6] - Celsius emphasizes innovation and health-focused formulations, with campaigns like "LIVE FIT" to engage health-conscious consumers [7] - CELH's stock has risen 18.1% over the past three months, reflecting positive market momentum [13] - Revenue and EPS estimates for 2025 are projected to increase by 77.7% and 54.3% year over year, respectively, reaching $2.4 billion and $1.08 per share [18] Monster Beverage Corporation (MNST) - Monster Beverage is a global leader in energy drinks, with a diverse portfolio that includes craft beers and flavored beverages [8][10] - The company continues to innovate, launching new products like Monster Energy Lando Norris Zero Sugar and expanding its Ultra brand [11] - Despite a strong energy drink market presence, MNST has faced challenges in its Alcohol Brands segment, with an 8.6% sales decline in Q2 2025 [12] - MNST's stock has grown 5.1% in the past three months, indicating steady performance [13] - Revenue and EPS estimates for 2025 are expected to increase by 7.8% and 17.9% year over year, respectively, reaching $8.1 billion and $1.91 per share [19] Comparative Analysis - CELH trades at a forward P/E multiple of 39.64X, below its five-year median, while MNST has a forward P/E of 31X, also below its five-year median [14][15] - CELH's premium valuation reflects its stronger growth trajectory and innovation, while MNST's valuation appears comparatively cheaper [15] - In terms of long-term growth potential, CELH is positioned more favorably due to its focus on health and wellness, making it a more attractive investment option [22]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported record revenues, profits, gross profits, and EBITDA in the second quarter [3] - The energy category has stabilized and is now experiencing double-digit growth rates, with Celsius holding approximately a 10-11% market share [1][3] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The acquisition of Alani Nu, a female-focused brand, has been integrated into the Celsius portfolio, which is expected to enhance growth [2][3] - The partnership with PepsiCo allows Celsius to control planograms and optimize SKU placements, which is anticipated to drive efficiencies and revenue [7][8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The energy drink category has seen a year-over-year growth of 17-18% in the last four weeks, with brands like Red Bull and Monster performing well [15] - The transition from coffee beverages to energy drinks is noted, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [16][19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The long-term strategy focuses on strategic partnerships for distribution, particularly with PepsiCo, to enhance market presence and product placement [4][5] - The company aims to leverage its portfolio of brands (Celsius, Alani Nu, Rockstar) to target different consumer segments and maximize market opportunities [11][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the energy category's robustness and the company's ability to adapt to changing consumer behaviors [15][17] - The integration of Alani Nu and the acquisition of Rockstar are seen as pivotal for future growth, with expectations of enhanced distribution capabilities through PepsiCo [23][54] Other Important Information - The company is preparing for the largest convenience store show in the country, which will help set planograms for the upcoming year [27] - The partnership with PepsiCo includes a significant equity investment and an additional board seat, reflecting confidence in Celsius's growth potential [52] Q&A Session Summary Question: What does the agreement with Pepsi mean for Celsius' long-term strategy? - The agreement enhances distribution capabilities and allows for better product placement, which is critical in the competitive energy category [4] Question: How does the acquisition of Alani Nu change the ability to service energy consumers? - The acquisition allows for a total energy approach, targeting different consumer segments effectively [11] Question: What is the expected financial impact of the deal with PepsiCo? - The deal is expected to bring in approximately $250 million of incremental revenue and enhance operational efficiencies [54] Question: How is the transition of Alani Nu to PepsiCo being managed? - The transition is anticipated to be seamless, with a focus on communication and project management to mitigate disruptions [60][62] Question: What does success look like for Celsius in the next two to three years? - Success is defined by a strong portfolio presence in the energy category, aiming for continued growth and market share expansion [65]

[Music] Over a period of my journey in the last 20 years and health and wellness uh we have seen the lot of changes happening all over the world. Today looking at the geopolitical scenarios I think the help is the biggest asset of any organization or in country all over the world. We are just lucky to be sitting here because we have gone through a co scenario.They have seen a lot of people have lost their life. I think what we fail to understand is the health is not a commodity. It is a collective responsib ...