Kevin Hanks live at the CBOE for our pre-bell playbook. Good morning to you. Of course, so much about the Fed.Will we get our third straight rate cut or not. How are you today. >> You know what we're going to have when the bell rings on Friday, Nicole.A lot of answers. Answers on what the Fed feels about the US economy via Jerome Pal's comments and the SEP. We're going to get answers on what the Fed feels about interest rates. We're going to get answers on how many denters, what the overall FOMC feels about ...

Bitcoin’s brutal selloff may be nearly over. That’s the message from Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan, who told investors that Bitcoin price is somewhere near the bottom of a six-month correction with “not much downside left.” “We’re in this uncomfortable bear market,” Hougan said in a December 3 panel with investors. “We’re in a six-month bottom phase, and somewhere in that period we’re close to the bottom.” Bitcoin was trading around $92,000 on Thursday, down more than 25% from its October ...

Economic Outlook - The US economy is experiencing a slowdown but is not in a recession, with growth projected around high 1% and not quite reaching 2% through 2026 [1][2] - Historical long-term trend growth for the US is approximately 2% real GDP, indicating current growth is slightly below this trend [2] Federal Reserve Actions - Anticipation of a 25 basis points rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week, with further cuts expected through 2026 [3][5] - The Fed is moving towards a neutral rate around 3%, allowing room for cuts [5] Fiscal Policy Impact - Fiscal policies are providing tailwinds for the economy, including benefits from a significant bill that stimulates both companies and individuals [3][4] - Tax benefits for individuals are projected to average between $2,000 to $2,500 per person in 2026 [4] Inflation Trends - Inflation is expected to continue decreasing, albeit at a slower rate, with challenges in reaching the Fed's 2% target [6][8] - Rents and housing costs are anticipated to contribute positively to the inflation narrative as they decline [7][8] Market Sentiment - The current dovish stance of the Fed is expected to remain, with a focus on balancing inflation concerns and employment [10][11] - The uncertainty regarding the leadership of the Fed may impact market sentiment and risk in 2026 [9]

Gold is up nearly 1% on Monday, while risk-on assets such as cryptos and stocks are down amid macro uncertainty. Gold futures contracts are trading at $4,262.35, just 2.95% below their record high of $4,381.44. The precious metal is within $130 of setting a new all-time peak. Bitcoin’s overnight crash has shrunk the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies by over 6% on the day, from $3.191 trillion to $3.016 trillion. Bitcoin is down 6% on the day and is currently trading at just under $86,000, accordin ...

bitcoin arthur hayes, bitcoin reserve, trump pardon. Photo by BeInCrypto Arthur Hayes is standing by his prediction that Bitcoin could reach $200,000–$250,000 by the end of 2025, despite the October–November crash and lingering market fear. Speaking on the Milk Road Show on November 26, he said the recent drop to $80,000 marked the cycle bottom and argued that global dollar liquidity has turned a corner. “I’m going to stick with it,” Hayes said when asked if his $200,000–$250,000 target still holds with ...

Bitcoin, fed rate cut. Photo by BeInCrypto Bitcoin (BTC) has increased nearly 8% since last Friday, bouncing back from recent lows near $80,500. This rally comes as market odds for a Fed rate cut in December jumped. The recovery aligns with capitulation among short-term holders and one of Bitcoin's largest-ever exchange outflow spikes, raising the market's hope of a continued recovery. Despite this, some analysts warn of an impending correction. Market Confidence Builds Around Monetary Policy Shift Bitc ...

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin has experienced a significant decline after reaching an all-time high of over $126,000 in early October, dropping back toward the $100,000 level and briefly entering bear-market territory [1][2] Group 1: Reasons for Bitcoin's Price Decline - Initial investor concerns attributed the price drop to fewer expected Federal Reserve rate cuts; however, Citigroup analysts suggest that the decline is primarily linked to falling liquidity in the US financial system [2][3] - Key factors influencing liquidity include bank reserves held at the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury's General Account (TGA), which typically move in opposite directions; as the TGA increased this year, bank reserves decreased [4][14] - Bitcoin is particularly sensitive to liquidity changes, with analysts noting that while falling reserves usually impact equities negatively, Bitcoin may react more strongly due to its liquidity sensitivity [6][14] Group 2: Future Outlook for Bitcoin - Despite the recent downturn, Citigroup remains optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term prospects, expecting liquidity pressures to ease as the Federal Reserve signals a halt to tapering its balance sheet in December [8][10] - The TGA has been replenished to over $940 billion as of November 5, which Citigroup considers a sufficient level, indicating potential stabilization in liquidity conditions [9][10] - Citigroup has set a 12-month price target of $181,000 for Bitcoin, driven by its increasing status as a store of value and the ongoing "digital gold" narrative [11][13]

The Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve building in Washington, DC. Photographer: Alex Wroblewski/Bloomberg Pressures simmering in the $12 trillion market that serves as a critical source of day-to-day funding on Wall Street are spurring a growing chorus of calls for a more forceful Federal Reserve response to ease the pinch. Bank of America Corp., SMBC Nikko Securities Inc. and Barclays Plc are among firms warning that the central bank may need to take steps such as lending more in short-term markets or ...

Core Insights - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut the Fed Funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%–4%, indicating a continued "risk management" approach [2][8] - The focus of the Fed is currently on the employment aspect of its dual mandate, especially in light of recent stagnation in job creation [2][3] - Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) is at an annual rate of 3%, while the preferred inflation measure, core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), is at 2.9%, both above the Fed's target [3][8] Monetary Policy Outlook - There is a potential for further rate cuts, with expectations leaning towards another cut at the December FOMC meeting, although the outlook for 2026 remains uncertain [4][8] - The Fed's dot plot suggests only one rate cut in 2026, contrasting with market expectations of three cuts [4][8] - The end of quantitative tightening (QT) is scheduled for December 1st, which may influence future monetary policy [5] Economic Context - The broader economy does not currently necessitate an accommodative policy phase, with a neutral Fed Funds Rate potentially around 3.5% [6][8] - The Fed and bond markets are awaiting new economic data, particularly after the government shutdown, which could lead to significant information releases [6][8] - Future policy moves will be heavily data-dependent, especially regarding employment metrics [6][8]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's communication is increasingly chaotic, with mixed signals from various members regarding interest rate cuts, particularly for December [1][2][3]. Group 1: Fed Members' Opinions - Three Fed members opposed an October rate cut and expressed skepticism about a December reduction, citing strong economic momentum and inflation above target [2]. - Fed Governor Waller and Governor Myron advocate for further cuts, with Waller emphasizing the need for action despite uncertainty in the economic outlook [3][6]. - A significant number of Fed members are scheduled to speak this week, indicating ongoing discussions about monetary policy [4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The upcoming ADP jobs data is anticipated to be crucial for determining the Fed's direction on rate cuts, with many observers believing definitive job data is needed to unify the committee [5][9]. - Current jobless claims are low, suggesting a potential turnaround in the job market, which could influence the Fed's decision-making [9]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The Fed is reassessing the appropriate level of reserves and plans to halt quantitative tightening, potentially increasing liquidity in the markets [6][7]. - There is a focus on the repo market and its implications for overall market tightness, although the Fed has downplayed its significance [5][7].