Core Viewpoint - President Trump announced that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will purchase an additional $200 billion in mortgage bonds to lower mortgage rates and make home ownership more affordable [1]. Group 1: Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs) Actions - Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are instructed to buy $200 billion in mortgage bonds, which is expected to drive down mortgage rates and monthly payments [1]. - The GSEs have already increased their retained mortgage holdings by approximately $69 billion in the second half of 2025 [6]. - If the GSEs add another $200 billion in mortgage bond holdings in 2026, they would approach their legal limit of $450 billion, with $225 billion for each [7]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Long-term yields, such as the 10-year Treasury yield and the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate, are influenced by the demand for underlying bonds, with yields moving inversely to bond prices [1]. - The "mortgage spread," which is the difference between the 10-year Treasury yield and the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate, peaked at 2.96 percentage points in June 2023, significantly above the historical average of 1.76 percentage points since 1972 [5]. - The goal of the $200 billion purchase is to accelerate the compression of the "mortgage spread," which has already decreased to 2.05 percentage points by December 2025 [6]. Group 3: Historical Context and Federal Reserve Actions - Prior to the Great Financial Crisis, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were significant buyers of mortgage-backed securities (MBS), providing stability to the market [9]. - The Federal Reserve took on the role of market stabilizer after the GSEs went into conservatorship, purchasing $1.25 trillion in agency MBS between January 2009 and March 2010 [9]. - The Federal Reserve's pivot to quantitative tightening in March 2022 removed a major buyer from the MBS market, leading to increased volatility and higher mortgage rates [11].

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price continues to reflect a complex mix of macro trends and market-specific events heading into 2026. BTC is shaped by three long-term forces and seven short-term, according to Jim Ferraioli, director of crypto research and strategy at the Schwab Center for Financial Research. The long-term factors are global M2 money supply, bitcoin’s disinflationary supply growthn and adoption. Short-term drivers include market risk sentiment, interest rates, U.S. dollar strength, seasonality, central ...

(Bloomberg) — Respondents to a Federal Reserve survey anticipated that the central bank’s reserve management purchases will total more than $200 billion over 12 months as part of efforts to quell pressures in money markets. Fed policymakers decided at the Dec. 9-10 meeting to begin Treasury bill purchases after deeming that reserves in the financial system had dropped to levels considered as ample as indicated by rising short-term funding costs. While bank reserve levels vary over time, cash needs tend to ...

Market Performance & Sentiment - Ethereum's performance this cycle may disappoint ETH holders due to a "Bitcoin maxi cycle" and lack of retail interest [1] - Bitcoin topped on apathy, similar to 2019, suggesting a lack of euphoria compared to 2021 or 2017 [2][5] Macroeconomic Factors - Ethereum's performance is heavily influenced by the macro economy, which it cannot control [3] - Macroeconomic uncertainty, such as rising unemployment, negatively impacts Ethereum's performance [4] Future Outlook - A return to looser monetary policy is needed for Ethereum to perform better [5] - A durable improvement in Ethereum's performance is not expected in the first half of 2026 [5] Risk Assessment - Ethereum is a riskier asset compared to stock market index funds [3]

Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates and the US economy will be clarified through comments from Jerome Powell and the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) [2][4] - Key figures to watch include Jerome Powell, Steven Myron, Michelle Bowman, and Christopher Waller, with a focus on potential dissenters within the FOMC [3][4] - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut, with discussions around the possibility of starting quantitative easing following the end of quantitative tightening [5][6] Earnings Reports - Significant earnings reports are expected from major companies such as Adobe, Oracle, Broadcom, Costco, and Lululemon on Wednesday and Thursday [3][7] - Broadcom is highlighted as a key player in the AI sector, with expectations of strong performance despite Nvidia's recent post-earnings decline [7][8] - Lululemon and Costco's earnings will provide insights into the US consumer market [8] Netflix and Warner Brothers Merger - Netflix has won the bid to move forward with the Warner Brothers acquisition, but the deal is expected to face extensive scrutiny and could take a long time to finalize [10][11] - Paramount Sky has launched a $30 all-cash tender offer for Warner Brothers, raising the stakes in the bidding war [12][13] - The enterprise value of Warner Brothers has escalated to approximately $108.4 billion, indicating a competitive environment for the asset [14][16]

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin is nearing the bottom of a six-month correction, with limited downside potential remaining according to Bitwise's chief investment officer Matt Hougan [1] Price Movement - Bitcoin was trading around $92,000, down over 25% from its October highs above $120,000 [1] Price Target - Bitwise maintains its $200,000 Bitcoin target despite acknowledging that the timing of this prediction was inaccurate [2] Selling Pressure - The selling pressure at the $100,000 mark exceeded expectations, leading to profit-taking among earlier buyers [4] Investor Sentiment - Fear surrounding Bitcoin's four-year boom-bust cycle influenced investor behavior, with traders concerned that 2025 would mark a peak [5] Market Dynamics - Several catalysts are identified that could drive Bitcoin prices higher, including the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs by Vanguard and Bank of America, which could unlock significant asset pools [6]

Economic Outlook - The US economy is experiencing a slowdown but is not in a recession, with growth projected around high 1% and not quite reaching 2% through 2026 [1][2] - Historical long-term trend growth for the US is approximately 2% real GDP, indicating current growth is slightly below this trend [2] Federal Reserve Actions - Anticipation of a 25 basis points rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week, with further cuts expected through 2026 [3][5] - The Fed is moving towards a neutral rate around 3%, allowing room for cuts [5] Fiscal Policy Impact - Fiscal policies are providing tailwinds for the economy, including benefits from a significant bill that stimulates both companies and individuals [3][4] - Tax benefits for individuals are projected to average between $2,000 to $2,500 per person in 2026 [4] Inflation Trends - Inflation is expected to continue decreasing, albeit at a slower rate, with challenges in reaching the Fed's 2% target [6][8] - Rents and housing costs are anticipated to contribute positively to the inflation narrative as they decline [7][8] Market Sentiment - The current dovish stance of the Fed is expected to remain, with a focus on balancing inflation concerns and employment [10][11] - The uncertainty regarding the leadership of the Fed may impact market sentiment and risk in 2026 [9]

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Gold prices are up nearly 1% and are trading at $4,262.35, just 2.95% below the record high of $4,381.44, indicating strong demand for the precious metal [1] - The rise in gold prices is attributed to growing caution among investors and rising expectations for a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December [3] - Speculation that the next Federal Reserve chair may adopt a more dovish stance is further fueling demand for gold [3] Group 2: Cryptocurrency Market Dynamics - Bitcoin's recent crash has led to a decline in the total cryptocurrency market cap by over 6%, dropping from $3.191 trillion to $3.016 trillion, with Bitcoin trading just under $86,000 [2] - The S&P 500 index is down 0.5% in premarket trading, reflecting bearish sentiment among U.S. equity investors [2] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - The odds of a quarter-point rate hike in December are around 88%, but investor caution persists due to data gaps following the government shutdown [4] - Prediction markets assign an 86% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, while the likelihood of Jerome Powell exiting the Fed Chair by year-end is only 9% [4] - Analysts suggest that upcoming economic reports, such as the ADP employment report and core PCE data, will provide clearer signals regarding the Fed's next steps [5]

Core Viewpoint - Arthur Hayes maintains his prediction that Bitcoin could reach $200,000–$250,000 by the end of 2025, viewing the recent drop to $80,000 as a cycle bottom rather than the onset of a new bear market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent decline in Bitcoin's price from a high of $125,000 to $80,000 is characterized as a liquidity-driven reset, influenced by significant dollar liquidity changes [2][3]. - Approximately $1 trillion has been drained from dollar money markets since July, attributed to the US Treasury's account refilling and the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening [3]. Group 2: ETF Market Misunderstandings - The inflows into Bitcoin ETFs were misinterpreted by retail investors, who believed it indicated strong institutional support, while in reality, the largest holders were basis traders exploiting spreads [4][5]. - Major firms like Brevan Howard, Goldman Sachs, and others are involved in trading the IBIT ETF, primarily engaging in basis trading rather than long-term Bitcoin investment [5]. - As funding rates decreased, these institutional players unwound their trades, leading to negative ETF flows, which retail investors misinterpreted as institutions selling off Bitcoin [6].

Market Overview - Bitcoin (BTC) has increased nearly 8% since last Friday, recovering from recent lows near $80,500, as market odds for a Fed rate cut in December have jumped [1] - The price of BTC traded at $86,947 at the time of writing, reflecting a 1.07% increase over the past day [2] Monetary Policy Impact - Market expectations for a December rate cut have fluctuated, with a 90% chance at the start of November, dropping to 30%, and rebounding to over 70% [3] - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 71% chance of a 25-basis-point cut at the Fed's December 10 meeting, following a previous cut in October [4] - The Fed's announcement to end quantitative tightening on December 1, 2025, signals rising liquidity and lower borrowing costs, which could strengthen demand for risk assets like Bitcoin [5] On-Chain Data Analysis - On-chain data suggests Bitcoin may be nearing a potential bottom, with a significant surge in BTC being moved off exchanges, historically a positive market sentiment indicator [6] - Swissblock Technologies has identified a noticeable decline in its Risk-Off Signal, indicating that the worst of the capitulation may be ending, supporting the notion that Bitcoin is forming a new bottom [7] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the next week is critical for Bitcoin, as continued fading of selling pressure could signal a reliable bottom, often marked by a second selling wave that is weaker than the first [8]