Orchid Island Capital (NYSE:ORC) Q3 2025 Earnings Call October 24, 2025 10:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsJerry Sintes - ControllerMelissa Alfonso - Company RepresentativeJason Weaver - Managing Director and Head Specialty Finance and Real Estate ResearchEric Hagen - Managing DirectorMikhail Goberman - VP and Equity ResearchRobert Cauley - Chairman and CEOHunter Haas - Chief Investment Officer, CFO and DirectorOperatorGood day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Orchid Island Capital Third Quarter ...

wsmahar / E+ via Getty Images As Warren Buffett prepares to hand over leadership of Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRK-A)(NYSE:BRK-B) to Greg Abel by year's end, his strategy remains focused on resilience amid market uncertainty. Even in his final months at the helm, Buffett has continued trimming major stakes in Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Bank of America (NYSE:BAC), reducing exposure to high-valuation sectors. At the same time, he has made modest additions to positions in companies like Nucor (NYSE:NUE) and Unit ...

And I do want to bring in our next guest, Jim Yurio, joining us this morning, managing director of TJM institutional services. Jim, great to have you with us as always. You I'd love to just start with your thoughts on on market performance so far this week.>> So I I think it's interesting and I think one of the clues we got last week was when we heard from Jerome Powell and he hinted about ending quantitative tightening and that was a little ahead of what I think the market was expecting expecting. So for m ...

Financial markets again saw a wobbly week that started well and ended on shaky trading. US markets rebounded on Monday from the prior Friday's sell-off, only to be pegged back on Tuesday amid President Trump's escalation with China over rare earth export controls. Midweek, sentiment steadied as investors sifted through megabank earnings, but Thursday brought renewed stress as regional banks disclosed issues with bad loans.Currency markets mirrored the shifting macro narrative. The US dollar initially caught ...

Bitcoin is showing signs of stabilization as key macroeconomic pressures begin to ease, with experts suggesting the top crypto may be bottoming.  Bitcoin is up nearly 2% over 24 hours, setting a high of $109,405, fueling a minor rally across the broader altcoin market, CoinGecko data shows. "I think Bitcoin is bottoming here," Peter Chung, head of research at Presto Research, told Decrypt. "I expect the next move is more likely to be upward rather than downward." The potential bullish reversal follows the ...

Market Overview - The stock market experienced gains on Wednesday, driven by better-than-expected earnings reports, which overshadowed concerns regarding escalating U.S.-China trade tensions [1] - President Trump's recent threats to China impacted the S&P 500's rally attempt, which had been supported by comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell about potentially ending quantitative tightening [1] Portfolio Management - Discussion on the portfolio included the potential sale of Abbott Laboratories due to its recent underperformance and overlap with Danaher, which is showing signs of recovery [1] - There is a consideration to shift focus towards Johnson & Johnson, perceived as a better-managed company compared to Abbott and Danaher [1] - Salesforce's stock performance remains uncertain, with concerns about investor patience following a positive keynote from CEO Marc Benioff [1] - Starbucks is viewed as a key position with a promising turnaround story [1] - Costco is suggested as a potential buy due to its currently low valuation multiple [1] Company Analysis - BTIG initiated coverage of Nike with a price target of $100, designating it as a top pick for 2026, reflecting confidence in the company's turnaround under CEO Elliott Hill [1] - Nike's stock is considered potentially undervalued, with a price-to-earnings ratio that may not accurately reflect its future earnings potential, which are expected to rebound [1]

Group 1: Federal Reserve's Actions - The Federal Reserve may soon conclude its balance sheet reduction program, which has decreased the balance sheet from $9 trillion to $6.6 trillion since 2022, reducing holdings by $2.4 trillion [2][3] - Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the Fed could reach a point to stop the balance sheet runoff in the coming months, contingent on monitoring liquidity conditions and short-term funding rates [3][2] Group 2: Cryptocurrency Market Dynamics - Bitcoin is trading lower at around $112,600, marking a weekly decline of over 7%, prompting traders to seek alternative cryptocurrencies (altcoins) [1] - The global crypto market cap is currently at $3.79 trillion, with the Fear and Greed Index in the "fear" zone at 37, and an average crypto RSI of 48.1 indicating the market is nearing oversold territory [5] Group 3: Altcoin Performance - Several altcoins are showing relative strength despite Bitcoin's weakness, with Solana rising 6.4% to around $207 and Dogecoin gaining over 4% [4] - Notable altcoins like ZORA and USELESS have gained about 20% in the past day, with USELESS reaching a new all-time high of $0.41 [6] - COAI, an AI-linked token, exhibited extreme volatility, recently jumping from $7.46 to $44 before correcting to around $15.96, indicating potential for altcoin outperformance [7] Group 4: Future Outlook - If the Fed confirms the end of quantitative tightening later this year, it could improve liquidity conditions, favoring altcoins such as SOL, XRP, and meme tokens like ZORA, COAI, and USELESS as potential investment opportunities for Q4 2025 [8]

Group 1: Dollar Performance - The dollar index (DXY00) fell by -0.24% as it reversed its overnight gains due to positive comments from ECB President Lagarde, which boosted the euro and negatively impacted the dollar [1] - The ongoing US government shutdown is bearish for the dollar, with potential economic repercussions if the shutdown persists [1] - Expectations for a rate cut by the Fed at the upcoming FOMC meeting on October 28-29 were reinforced by dovish comments from Fed Chair Powell, leading to accelerated losses in the dollar [1][4] Group 2: US-China Trade Tensions - The US-China trade conflict escalated with China sanctioning five US units of South Korean shipbuilder Hanwha Ocean Co., reflecting ongoing tit-for-tat actions between the two nations [4] - The imposition of special port fees on each other's vessels has significant implications for the global economy, as vessels account for over 80% of international trade [4] Group 3: Euro Performance - The euro (EUR/USD) rose by +0.30% after recovering from early losses, driven by positive remarks from ECB President Lagarde about the Eurozone economy [5] - The German October ZEW expectations of economic growth survey exceeded expectations, providing additional support for the euro [5] - Political uncertainty in France, particularly regarding a potential no-confidence vote for Prime Minister Lecornu, has created downward pressure on the euro [6]

Group 1 - The expectation is that bond yields, particularly the ten-year yield, may continue to decline due to attractive real yields in the bond markets and a decrease in inflation [1][2] - A formal announcement regarding a new inflation target could lead to further declines in bond yields, currency appreciation, and a reduction in the inflation rate [2][3] - There have been significant capital inflows into the South African bond markets, exceeding 409 billion rand in recent months, which is a crucial factor for the bond market's performance [4] Group 2 - The yield differential between the U.S. Treasury ten-year yield and the South African government bond yield is favorable for South Africa, contributing to the positive sentiment in the bond market [5] - The inflation differential between South Africa and the U.S. has narrowed, indicating a faster dis-inflation rate in South Africa, which is important for investors [5] - There is a renewed positive sentiment towards emerging markets, with South Africa being a notable player in this category [5] Group 3 - Central banks globally are increasing their gold holdings, with the price of gold recently spiking to a record $4,000, which may influence the South African Central Bank's strategy [6] - South Africa maintains significant gold reserves and has the capacity to extract more gold if necessary, indicating a strong position in terms of gold assets [7] - Concerns about rising debt levels are prevalent, but emerging market debt has not increased as significantly as that of advanced economies, suggesting a different risk profile [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - Pressure on long-dated bonds is easing globally as investors respond to supply changes and seek bargains following a recent selloff [1] Group 1: Yield Changes - Yields on 30-year US bonds have decreased by approximately 25 basis points since early September, while UK gilts have dropped by 20 basis points and Japanese bonds have fallen nearly 15 basis points [2] - This decline in yields has reversed a significant selloff that previously pushed Japan's long-dated yields to an all-time high and UK gilts to their highest level since 1998 [2] Group 2: Supply Changes - The easing pressure on long-dated bonds is partly attributed to a reduction in long-end supply, with Japan's finance ministry proposing to cut issuance of long-dated debt in upcoming auctions [3] - The Bank of England is also reducing the share of long-end bond sales in its quantitative tightening program starting next month, and Australia's debt manager has indicated it may consider reducing ultra-long bond issuance [3] Group 3: Market Sentiment - The shift in supply dynamics is prompting a reevaluation among investors, with TS Lombard strategists noting that supply "fixes" are creating buying opportunities in the UK and Japan [5] - The change in sentiment regarding long-end bonds has also influenced the US market, leading strategists at Citigroup and Bank of America to withdraw recommendations that longer-term Treasuries would underperform [5] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The recent optimism about long bonds highlights how supply concerns were a significant factor in the previous selloff, despite broader fears of increasing fiscal deficits [6] - An economist from TS Lombard suggests that the rise in 30-year yields globally is not indicative of an "imminent fiscal apocalypse," but rather a result of declining demand from pension funds and insurers, along with central bank quantitative tightening [7] Group 5: Federal Reserve Influence - In the US bond market, concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve contributed to pushing 30-year yields close to 5% earlier in the month [8] - However, a recent near-unanimous policy decision by the Fed has alleviated these concerns, leading Citi's rates strategists to recommend clients take profits on bets that 30-year interest-rate forwards will underperform compared to five-year tenors [8]