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How REITs Became The Safe Haven Trade In The Tech Wreck
Seeking Alpha· 2026-02-17 21:12
Core Viewpoint - REITs are regaining favor as a safe haven investment, showing a year-to-date increase of 6.9% compared to a broader market decline [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The turning point for market sentiment occurred in early February, coinciding with a reversal of previously hot trades and a focus on significant capital expenditure (capex) by hyperscalers during earnings season [3] - Major tech companies like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon experienced declines of 5%, 10%, and 18% respectively, contributing to a 4% drop in the Nasdaq and a 2% drop in the S&P in the first two weeks of February [7][8] - Traditional safe havens, including gold and silver, have not performed well, leading investors to consider REITs as a more reliable option [9][11] Group 2: REITs' Fundamental Strength - REITs have demonstrated strong fundamental performance over the past five years, with metrics such as FFO (Funds From Operations) growth and improved margins [13][16] - The median REIT trades at 13.8X FFO, significantly lower than the S&P's 29.3X trailing earnings, indicating a divergence in valuation [21] - REITs currently offer an FFO yield of 7.24%, compared to the S&P's earnings yield of 3.4%, allowing for larger dividend payouts [24] Group 3: Cash Flow Reliability - REITs benefit from contractual revenue streams that can extend up to 30 years, providing visibility into future cash flows and supporting consistent dividend growth [17][19] - A forecast indicates that 36 REITs are expected to increase their dividends in the first quarter of 2026, reflecting their reliable cash flow structure [17] Group 4: Direct Benefits from Tech Capex - Many REITs are positioned to benefit directly from the trillions of dollars being spent on AI infrastructure, with companies like Equinix reporting accelerating growth in AFFO per share due to increased demand for data centers [29] - The demand for infrastructure related to AI is driving significant growth opportunities for REITs, contrasting with the challenges faced by hyperscalers [29] Group 5: Market Correction and Future Outlook - The current market correction is seen as a recalibration of previously inflated tech valuations, with capital shifting towards undervalued sectors like REITs [32][33] - The outperformance of REITs in 2026 is viewed as just the beginning, with expectations for further normalization of relative value as the market adjusts [33]
Veteran Analyst Says Bitcoin’s Safe-Haven Dream Is Cracking — But Crypto’s Next Era May Just Be Beginning
Yahoo Finance· 2026-02-17 09:34
Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin's narrative as a safe haven and digital gold is being challenged, with analysts questioning its future role in the evolving crypto ecosystem [1][2]. Group 1: Bitcoin's Performance - Despite a weakening US Dollar, Bitcoin has underperformed as a hedge against fiat debasement, declining 20-22% year-to-date while the US Dollar Index fell approximately 9% in 2025 and another 2% in 2026 [2]. - Analysts note that during times of economic stress, capital has shifted to gold rather than Bitcoin, indicating its failure to act as a store of value [3]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Participation - Retail participation in Bitcoin has reached multi-year lows, and many early advocates have exited the market, suggesting a decline in Bitcoin's ideological appeal [3]. - The post-ETF era is seen as a turning point, with questions arising about Bitcoin's narrative if it is not utilized as cash and fails to absorb market stress [4]. Group 3: Institutional Integration and Risks - With 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs approved and significant corporate treasury allocations, Bitcoin has integrated into traditional finance systems, but this shift may expose companies to value erosion if market corrections continue [5]. - Michael Burry has warned that Bitcoin behaves more like a volatile stock correlated with the S&P 500 rather than a safe haven asset like gold [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The future of the crypto ecosystem may lie in AI and machine-native finance rather than Bitcoin's traditional store-of-value thesis [6].
Michael Burry made $100M by betting against the housing market in 2008, now he’s set his sights on AI with these moves
Yahoo Finance· 2026-02-16 17:45
Group 1: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Concerns about speculation in the AI sector are rising, with Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon warning that much of the capital invested in AI may not yield returns [1] - Burry's firm, Scion Asset Management, disclosed bearish positions against Nvidia and Palantir, indicating a belief that these stocks may decline [3] - Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have warned of a potential market correction, with Goldman forecasting a possible 10%–20% drawdown in stocks within the next 12 to 24 months [5] Group 2: Company Performance - Palantir, a key player in the AI boom, saw its share prices soar in 2025 but has recently lost momentum [2] - Nvidia has emerged as a leading chipmaker in the AI race, with its shares surging 41% in late 2025 and an impressive 1,240% increase over the past five years, briefly reaching a $5-trillion valuation in October [2] Group 3: Investment Strategies - A put option allows investors to sell a stock at a predetermined price, typically used when expecting a decline in stock price [3] - Burry's comments on market bubbles suggest a cautious approach, advising that sometimes the best strategy is to avoid certain investments altogether [4][6]
X @The Economist
The Economist· 2026-02-16 14:50
China’s rich-listers are looking beyond Singapore to an alternative sunny, safe and low-tax jurisdiction. For many private investors and companies, Dubai holds much promise https://t.co/PccrZX1Nh3 ...
X @Ansem
Ansem 🧸💸· 2026-02-13 04:08
RT casa (@coin_casanova)A question on my mind recently has been:- Is it really over for BTC, or is this the same fear that looms every time we enter a bear market, when everyone publishes their most bearish takes?1. We all know it's been a terrible "safe haven" trade GOLD/BTC is clear2. It's not a really good risk asset either : ES/BTC, SMH/BTC3. Now it's part of this SaaS AI correlated asset in a way4. Liquidity game would suggest there are better speculations available in 2026 - AI, Robotics, Space5. Sayl ...
PALOMA ACQUISITION CORP I(PALOU) - Prospectus(update)
2026-02-11 23:58
FORM S-1 REGISTRATION STATEMENT UNDER THE SECURITIES ACT OF 1933 Table of Contents As filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on February 11, 2026. Registration No. 333-293083 UNITED STATES SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION Washington, D.C. 20549 Amendment No. 1 to Paloma Acquisition Corp I (Exact name of registrant as specified in its charter) Cayman Islands 6770 N/A (State or other jurisdiction of incorporation or organization) (Primary Standard Industrial Classification Code Number) (I.R.S. Em ...
Trump makes jaw-dropping Dow prediction of 100,000 by 2029 — a 99% surge fueled by ‘great tariffs.’ Build serious wealth
Yahoo Finance· 2026-02-11 22:33
Investment Strategies - Warren Buffett advocates for owning the S&P 500 index fund, which provides exposure to 500 of America's largest companies and instant diversification without the need for active trading [1][2] - Buffett emphasizes that most investors do not need to pick individual stocks to benefit from the long-term growth of the stock market, highlighting the certainty of American business value increasing over time [2] Market Performance - The average 401(k) balance reached an all-time high of $144,400 in Q3 2025, reflecting a 9% year-over-year increase [3] - The S&P 500 returned approximately 16% in 2025 and has increased about 77% over the past five years, indicating strong market momentum [3] Real Estate Investment - Real estate is highlighted as a productive, income-generating asset, with Buffett expressing willingness to invest $25 billion for 1% of all apartment houses in the U.S. [9] - Real estate serves as a hedge against inflation, as property values and rental income tend to rise with inflation [10] Alternative Investment Platforms - Crowdfunding platforms like Arrived allow investors to buy shares in rental homes with as little as $100, providing an accessible way to invest in real estate without the burdens of property management [11] - Lightstone Group offers institutional-quality real estate investments with a minimum investment of $100,000, backed by a strong historical performance [13][14] Gold as a Diversifier - Ray Dalio emphasizes the importance of a well-diversified portfolio, with gold being a key diversifier during economic downturns [15][16] - Gold prices have increased over 70% in the past year, with potential for further growth as indicated by JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon [17] Financial Advisory Services - Advisor.com connects individuals with vetted financial advisors to tailor investment strategies based on unique financial situations, helping to grow wealth and plan for long-term security [19][20]
Bitcoin gets slashed in half. What's behind the crypto's existential crisis
CNBC· 2026-02-06 17:03
Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin, is experiencing a significant downturn, with Bitcoin falling to around $60,000, leading to a reassessment of its utility as a digital currency and store of value [1][2][4]. Market Performance - Bitcoin dropped to a low of $60,062, marking a decline of over 52% from its all-time high of $126,000 in early October 2025 [2]. - In a single day, Bitcoin lost more than 15%, with its daily relative strength index falling to 18, indicating extreme oversold conditions [3]. - Other cryptocurrencies, such as Ether and Solana, also saw declines of 24% and 26% respectively for the week, reflecting a broader loss of confidence in the crypto market [3]. Institutional Sentiment - Institutional interest in Bitcoin appears to be waning, as evidenced by significant outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which recorded over $3 billion in outflows in January alone, following $2 billion in December and $7 billion in November [9]. - Investors are increasingly skeptical about the willingness of financial institutions and governments to adopt Bitcoin, which has been a major driver of its value in recent years [7]. Comparative Analysis - Over the past year, Bitcoin has decreased by 28%, while gold has increased by 72%, highlighting gold's effectiveness as a hedge against macroeconomic risks [5]. - Bitcoin has been trading down alongside other risk-on assets, raising doubts about its status as a safe haven during periods of economic uncertainty [6]. Market Dynamics - The current market downturn is characterized as a macro-driven deleveraging rather than a structural failure within the crypto ecosystem [5]. - Efforts to position Bitcoin as "digital gold" or an alternative to traditional safe havens have lost traction, with many initiatives to promote Bitcoin as a payment method failing to gain momentum [10][11]. Future Outlook - Despite the current challenges, some investors remain optimistic about Bitcoin's long-term potential, although there is a growing concern about the security of its underlying network [12][13].
X @The Economist
The Economist· 2026-02-05 12:25
It is hard to be a safe haven when trouble starts at home https://t.co/SRx3mzk0Lo ...
Should You Buy the iShares Silver Trust ETF After Its Steep Sell-Off?
The Motley Fool· 2026-02-03 08:45
The market dynamics for silver -- and this silver ETF -- could still be favorable.What goes up can come down. We saw that axiom play out in a big way last week. Shares of the iShares Silver Trust (SLV 3.98%) exchange-traded fund (ETF) had skyrocketed 277% higher over the previous 12 months as of Thursday, Jan. 29, 2026.Then the bottom fell out. This high-flying ETF plunged nearly 30% on Friday, the last trading day of January. However, the opposite of the aforementioned adage is also true: What comes down c ...