March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) on Thursday closed up +0.19 (+1.26%), and December London ICE white sugar #5 (SWZ25) closed up +3.30 (+0.76%). Sugar prices settled higher on Thursday after a sharp rally in crude oil prices sparked short-covering in sugar futures.  Crude oil (CLZ25) surged more than +5% on Thursday to a 2-week high, which benefits ethanol prices and could prompt the world's sugar mills to divert more cane crushing toward ethanol production rather than sugar, thus curbing sugar supplies. ...

Group 1: Sugar Price Trends - Sugar prices have been declining, with NY sugar closing down 1.90% and London sugar down 0.36% on Friday [1][2] - The recent trends indicate that London sugar has reached a 4.25-year nearest-futures low, while NY sugar is above a 3-week nearest-futures low [2] - Over the past seven months, NY sugar has seen a 4.5-year nearest-futures low due to increased sugar output in Brazil [3] Group 2: Global Sugar Supply Outlook - BMI Group projects a global sugar surplus of 10.5 million metric tons (MMT) for 2025/26, while Covrig Analytics estimates a surplus of 4.1 MMT for 2025/25 [2] - Brazil's sugar output in the second half of September increased by 10.8% year-on-year to 3.137 million tons, with a rise in the percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar [3] - Cumulative sugar output in Brazil's Center-South region through September rose by 0.8% year-on-year to 33.524 MMT [3] Group 3: India’s Sugar Production and Export Potential - India's sugar production is expected to rise by 19% year-on-year to 34.9 MMT for 2025/26, following a significant decline in 2024/25 [4] - The Indian Meteorological Department reported cumulative monsoon rainfall of 937.2 mm, 8% above normal, indicating a strong monsoon that may lead to a bumper sugar crop [4] - India may divert 4 MMT of sugar for ethanol production in 2025/26, which could lead to increased sugar exports of up to 4 MMT, surpassing earlier expectations [5]

Core Insights - Sugar prices have been declining, with NY sugar reaching a 3-week low and London sugar hitting a 4.25-year low, primarily due to increased sugar output in Brazil and favorable weather conditions in India [2][4]. Group 1: Sugar Price Trends - March NY world sugar 11 closed down by 0.49 (-3.04%), while December London ICE white sugar 5 fell by 6.40 (-1.42%) [1] - Sugar prices have been under pressure for the past seven months, with NY sugar posting a 4.5-year nearest-futures low last month [2] - The outlook for robust global sugar supplies is bearish for prices, with BMI Group projecting a global sugar surplus of 10.5 million metric tons (MMT) for 2025/26 [3] Group 2: Brazil's Sugar Production - Brazil's Center-South sugar output in the first half of September rose by 15.7% year-on-year to 3.622 million tons (MT) [2] - The percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar by Brazil's sugar mills increased to 53.49% in the second half of August from 47.74% the previous year [2] - Cumulative sugar output for 2025-26 through mid-September fell by 0.1% year-on-year to 30.388 MMT [2] Group 3: India's Sugar Production and Export Outlook - India's cumulative monsoon rainfall as of September 30 was 937.2 mm, 8% above normal, indicating a strong monsoon that may lead to a bumper sugar crop [4] - India's sugar production for 2025/26 is projected to increase by 19% year-on-year to 34.9 MMT, following a significant decline in 2024/25 [4] - India may divert 4 MMT of sugar to ethanol production in 2025/26, which could lead to increased sugar exports, exceeding earlier expectations [5]

Core Insights - Sugar prices experienced a significant rally, with NY sugar reaching a 1.75-month nearest-futures high due to lower sugar production signals from Brazil [2] - Brazil's sugar content in crushed cane decreased, indicating potential declines in sugar output, while higher sugar output in Brazil is generally bearish for prices [4] Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 closed up +0.34 (+2.06%) and December London ICE white sugar 5 closed up +6.90 (+1.51%) [1] Production and Supply Dynamics - Brazil's Center-South sugar output rose by +15.7% year-on-year to 3.622 million tons in the first half of September, but cumulative sugar output for 2025-26 fell -0.1% year-on-year to 30.388 million tons [4] - The sugar content in Brazil's crushed cane dropped to 154.58 kg/ton in the first half of September from 160.07 kg/ton a year earlier [2] Global Supply Outlook - StoneX forecasts a global sugar surplus of +2.8 million metric tons for the 2025/26 season, reversing from a deficit of -4.7 million metric tons in the 2024/25 season [3] India’s Production Impact - India's sugar production is projected to increase by +19% year-on-year to 34.9 million metric tons for 2025/26, following a significant decline in 2024/25 [6] - The Indian Meteorological Department reported that cumulative monsoon rain was 937.2 mm, 8% above normal, indicating a potential bumper sugar crop [5]

Core Insights - Sugar prices have increased sharply, with NY sugar reaching a 1.75-month nearest-futures high, supported by a decline in sugar content in Brazil's sugarcane crush [2][4] - Brazil's sugar output has shown mixed signals, with a year-on-year increase in the first half of September but a slight decline in cumulative output for the 2025-26 season [4] - India's sugar production outlook is bearish for prices, with expectations of a significant increase in production due to favorable monsoon conditions [5][6] Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 is up by 0.32 (+1.94%) and December London ICE white sugar 5 is up by 6.90 (+1.51%) [1] - Last month, NY sugar hit a 4.25-year nearest-futures low, while London sugar fell to a 4-year low, extending a 7-month downtrend due to abundant global supplies [3] Brazil's Sugar Production - Brazil's Center-South sugar output rose by 15.7% year-on-year to 3.622 million tons in the first half of September [4] - The sugar content in crushed cane in Brazil dropped to 154.58 kg/ton in September from 160.07 kg/ton a year earlier, indicating potential lower production [2] India's Sugar Production Outlook - India's sugar production is projected to increase by 19% year-on-year to 34.9 million tons for the 2025/26 season, following a decline to a 5-year low of 26.2 million tons in 2024/25 [6] - The Indian Meteorological Department reported cumulative monsoon rain of 937.2 mm, 8% above normal, which is expected to contribute to a bumper sugar crop [5] Export Dynamics - India may divert 4 million tons of sugar for ethanol production in 2025/26, which could lead to increased exports of sugar, potentially reaching 4 million tons, exceeding earlier expectations [7]

Core Insights - Sugar prices exhibited mixed performance, with NY sugar closing up by 0.07 (+0.431%) and London sugar down by 1.20 (-0.26%) on Friday, influenced by varying production signals from Brazil and global demand trends [1] Group 1: Production Trends - Brazil's Center-South sugarcane crush saw a decline in sugar content, dropping to 154.58 kg/ton in early September from 160.07 kg/ton a year earlier, indicating potential lower sugar production [1] - Brazil's sugar output in the first half of September increased by 15.7% year-on-year to 3.622 million tons, with a higher percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar rising to 53.49% compared to 47.74% the previous year [4] - India's sugar production is projected to rise by 19% year-on-year to 34.9 million tons for the 2025/26 season, following a significant decline in the previous year [6] Group 2: Global Demand and Supply Dynamics - NY sugar reached a 1.5-month high and London sugar a 2-week high due to stronger global demand, highlighted by Pakistan's order of 320,000 metric tons of sugar for immediate delivery [2] - A global sugar surplus of 2.8 million tons is projected for the 2025/26 season, a shift from a deficit of 4.7 million tons in the 2024/25 season, indicating an overall increase in supply [3] - The outlook for higher sugar exports from India is negative for sugar prices, as the country experiences its strongest monsoon in five years, leading to expectations of a bumper sugar crop [5]

Core Insights - Sugar prices are experiencing an upward trend, reaching 1.5-week highs due to dollar weakness, which has led to short-covering in sugar futures [1] - Recent projections indicate a shift from a sugar deficit to a surplus in the global market for the 2025/26 season, with a surplus of +2.8 million metric tons (MMT) expected [2] Group 1: Price Movements - October NY world sugar 11 is up +0.16 (+1.01%), while December London ICE white sugar 5 is up +2.20 (+0.48%) [1] - Last Tuesday, NY sugar reached a 4.25-year nearest-futures low, and London sugar hit a 4-year low, continuing a 7-month downtrend due to abundant global sugar supplies [2] Group 2: Production and Supply Factors - Brazil's sugar output increased by +18% year-on-year to 3.872 MMT in the second half of August, with the percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar rising to 54.20% [3] - Cumulative sugar output in Brazil for the 2025-26 season through August fell -1.9% year-on-year to 26.758 MMT [3] - India may divert 4 MMT of sugar for ethanol production in 2025/26, which could lead to increased exports of up to 4 MMT, surpassing earlier expectations [4] Group 3: Global Sugar Deficits and Surpluses - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a global sugar deficit of -231,000 MT for the 2025/26 season, an improvement from a -4.88 MMT shortfall in 2024/25 [5] - Global sugar production is projected to rise by +3.3% year-on-year to 180.6 MMT for the 2025/26 season, while consumption is expected to increase by +0.3% year-on-year to 180.8 MMT [5] - Czarnikow projects a 7.5 MMT global sugar surplus for the 2025/26 season, the largest in 8 years, with the USDA forecasting a +4.7% year-on-year increase in global sugar production to a record 189.318 MMT [6]

October NY world sugar #11 (SBV25) on Tuesday closed up +0.41 (+2.69%), and December London ICE white sugar #5 (SWZ25) closed up +11.80 (+2.62%). Sugar prices recovered from early losses on Tuesday and moved sharply higher after a +1% rally in crude oil prices (CLX25) sparked short covering in sugar futures.  Stronger crude prices benefit ethanol prices and could prompt global sugar mills to divert more cane crushing toward ethanol production rather than sugar, thus curbing sugar supplies. More News from ...

Core Insights - Sugar prices are experiencing a decline, with London sugar reaching a new 4-year low and NY sugar hitting a 4.25-year nearest-futures low due to increased sugar production in Brazil [2][3] - Brazil's Center-South sugar output in the second half of August rose by 18% year-on-year to 3.872 million tons, with the percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar increasing to 54.20% from 48.78% the previous year [2] - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a global sugar deficit for the 2025/26 season, marking the sixth consecutive year of deficits, with a projected deficit of 231,000 tons, an improvement from the previous year's shortfall of 4.88 million tons [4] Production and Supply - Brazil's cumulative sugar output for the 2025-26 season through August fell by 1.9% year-on-year to 26.758 million tons, despite the increase in production in the latter half of August [2] - The USDA projected a record global sugar production of 189.318 million tons for the 2025/26 season, reflecting a 4.7% year-on-year increase, with ending stocks expected to rise by 7.5% year-on-year to 41.188 million tons [5] Export Dynamics - India's sugar mills may export up to 4 million tons of sugar, exceeding earlier expectations of 2 million tons, as the country anticipates a surplus despite plans to divert 4 million tons for ethanol production [3] - Abundant monsoon rains in India, reported at 893.8 mm as of September 22, are expected to contribute to a bumper sugar crop, further influencing export levels and market prices [6]

Core Viewpoint - Sugar prices are experiencing a significant decline due to increased production in Brazil, leading to oversupply and lower market prices [2][4]. Group 1: Sugar Price Trends - October NY world sugar 11 closed down -0.16 (-1.03%), while December London ICE white sugar 5 closed down -4.50 (-0.98%) [1]. - Sugar prices have reached a 4.25-year low for NY sugar and a 4-year low for London sugar [2]. - The downtrend in sugar prices has persisted for six months, primarily driven by expectations of higher production in Brazil [4]. Group 2: Production Insights - Brazil's Center-South sugar output in the second half of August increased by +18% year-on-year to 3.872 million tons [2]. - The percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar by Brazil's sugar mills rose to 54.20% from 48.78% year-on-year [2]. - Cumulative sugar output in Brazil for the 2025-26 season through August fell -1.9% year-on-year to 26.758 million tons [2]. Group 3: Global Market Dynamics - India is expected to divert 4 million tons of sugar for ethanol production in 2025/26, which may lead to increased exports of sugar from Indian mills [3]. - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a global sugar deficit of -231,000 tons for the 2025/26 season, marking the sixth consecutive year of deficits [6]. - Global sugar production is projected to rise by +3.3% year-on-year to 180.6 million tons for the 2025/26 season, while consumption is expected to increase by +0.3% year-on-year to 180.8 million tons [6]. Group 4: Market Positioning - Funds have significantly increased their net-short positions in NY sugar futures, reaching 182,608 contracts, the highest in nearly six years [5].