Good morning and good afternoon, everyone. It is July 11th, Thursday. Welcome to Morgan Stanley Asia Micro webcast. My name is Crystal Ji, Asian EM, equity strategist. Before we start, please note that this event is for Morgan Stanley institutional clients and financial advisors only. It is not for members of press. If you're a member of the press, please log off and reach out separately. Please also note that this broadcast, your questions may be recorded. Today, we have Chetan Iyer, Chief Asia Economist, ...

Is the dollar resting, or nailed to its perch? @johnauthers writes that tariff uncertainty must end to see if there's still life in the greenback (via @opinion) https://t.co/EUkvQnNK1Y ...

June 30, 2025 04:02 AM GMT Thematic Alpha | North America US Consumer Pulse Survey: Consumer Sentiment Stabilizes Amid Tariff Uncertainty M Consumer sentiment toward the economy and household finances has stabilized as concern over tariffs holds at March levels. Inflation remains consumers' primary concern though worry over the political environment and geopolitics is rising. This report provides a full breakdown of data from our 66th survey of ~2,000 consumers in the U.S., which ran June 19th - 23rd, to ga ...

点击图片查看大图 关键要点 从数据来看，这些地理区域大致可分为两类：一类是年回报率约为3%的地区（拉丁美洲、欧洲的中东欧 及独联体国家，和泛新兴市场投资者）；另一类是表现优异者（亚洲发达市场以及中东和北非地区,或 MENA）。这并不令人意外，因为亚洲发达地区本身市场更加成熟，而MENA地区在过去二十年中吸引 了大量私募市场资本流入。 最近的两笔交易展现了亚洲发达市场和MENA地区的运营环境，也凸显了未来的投资潜力。第一个是 Skechers被3G私有化收购。这笔交易反映了市场对中国产品可能面临新一轮税负的担忧。该交易有望为 Skechers提供将产能转移至其他地区的灵活性，许多其他企业也可能采取类似的做法。因此，希望继续布 局亚洲市场的国际投资者可能会将目光转向亚洲的发达国家。 另一笔交易是OpenAI收购IO并在阿联酋推出Stargate UAE项目。前者预示着，在未来10年，人工智能领 域将涌现出更多类似的交易规模和类型。Stargate在阿联酋的启动是OpenAI的第一个国家/地区合作项 目，它表明阿联酋正在努力成为新兴行业的领导者，并可能成为投资者蜂拥进入该领域的地区。 随着关税不确定性成为今年金融领 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gap is experiencing a resurgence with a reported 5% same-store sales growth for its fiscal first quarter of 2025, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of growth [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Gap closed approximately 2,000 stores and saw annual sales decline by about $3.5 billion from fiscal 2001 to 2021 [1] - In fiscal 2024, Gap's overall sales grew by 1%, primarily driven by Old Navy, which accounts for over half of Gap's revenue [4] - The company has improved its profitability, achieving growth on the highest gross margins in the past 20 years [4] Group 2: Leadership and Strategy - CEO Richard Dickson, who previously revived the Barbie brand at Mattel, took over in 2023 and hired fashion designer Zac Posen as creative director [2] - Posen has contributed to Gap's cultural relevance by dressing celebrities for high-profile events, although his main focus is on Old Navy [3] - Gap has undertaken significant restructuring, including store closures and layoffs, to clean up its balance sheet and set a foundation for future growth [5][6] Group 3: Challenges and Market Conditions - Despite beating Wall Street's earnings expectations, Gap's stock fell 15% due to concerns over U.S. tariff policies, which could cost the company between $100 million and $150 million [7] - Banana Republic and Athleta are not experiencing the same level of same-store sales growth as Gap and Old Navy, indicating ongoing challenges for these brands [6]

Core Viewpoint - Target is facing significant challenges, with sales declining and stock prices dropping over 60% from their peak, marking the worst performance since the 1990s, but the company is not considered to be dying and has a fundamentally sound financial foundation [1][4][7]. Group 1: Sales and Market Conditions - Target's sales have plateaued and started to decline due to various factors, including increased financial strain on consumers primarily caused by rampant inflation [4]. - Groceries and household essentials accounted for only 40.5% of total merchandise sales last year, meaning that when consumers cut back on discretionary spending, Target is significantly impacted [5]. - Consumer sentiment has dropped to its lowest level since July 2022, exacerbated by tariff uncertainties [5]. Group 2: Company Policies and Backlash - Target faced backlash from shoppers due to its decision to roll back diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) policies, leading to a 40-day boycott that began in early March [6]. - Merchandise sales dropped 3.1% year over year in Q1 2025, following a 3.2% decline in Q1 2024, indicating ongoing struggles [6]. Group 3: Financial Stability - Despite challenges, Target maintains a solid financial foundation, with a dividend yield of 4.4% and annual dividend spending of $2 billion, while generating over $3.5 billion in free cash flow over the past year [7][8]. - Target has nearly $2.9 billion in cash, sufficient to fund dividends for a year, and holds an investment-grade credit rating, allowing time to rethink business strategies [8]. Group 4: Growth Plans - Target plans to open 300 new stores over the next decade, increasing its footprint by approximately 15%, indicating a commitment to growth despite current challenges [10]. - The company has less than half the number of stores as Walmart, suggesting that the U.S. market can support further expansion [10]. Group 5: Valuation and Investment Potential - Target's stock is currently priced at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11, significantly lower than Walmart's 41, reflecting pessimistic market expectations [11]. - If Target maintains its 4.4% dividend and achieves mid-single-digit earnings growth, it could generate double-digit annualized investment returns, improving sentiment towards the stock [12]. Group 6: Conclusion - The stock is positioned for potential improvement, as it would require a complete failure for the stock not to recover somewhat from current levels, making it an attractive option for investors seeking dividends while waiting for recovery [13].

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Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved record net sales of $46.7 million, representing a 29% year-over-year increase driven by a 100% increase in fire services products [4][14] - Consolidated gross margin decreased to 33.5% from 44.6% for the comparable period [15][18] - Net loss was $3.9 million or $0.41 per share compared to net income of $1.7 million or $0.22 per share for the same period last year [16][20] - Adjusted EBITDA excluding FX was $600,000, a decrease of $3.2 million or 84% compared to the prior year [20][24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fire services segment grew by 100% year-over-year, contributing $10.5 million to the revenue increase [16][26] - Organic revenue increased by $600,000 or 2% to $36.9 million, with strong growth in the U.S. and Europe, partially offset by declines in Latin America and Canada [17][26] - U.S. net sales increased 42% year-over-year to $22.5 million, while European sales increased 102% to $12.1 million [5][26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Organic fire services business in the U.S. grew by $1 million or 32% year-over-year, while the U.S. industrial organic business grew by $1.1 million or 9.7% [17] - Latin American operations saw a 12% decrease in sales year-over-year, while sales in Asia increased by 15% [25][68] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on accelerating growth within the fragmented $2 billion fire protection sector and enhancing operational efficiencies [4][12] - A new company-wide SAP ERP system is being implemented to modernize and consolidate systems [7] - The company maintains a robust M&A pipeline and is engaged in active discussions to explore new opportunities for further consolidating the fire market [12][33] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in navigating tariff uncertainties and expects sequential growth in gross margins and adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter [12][30] - The company anticipates revenue between $210 million to $220 million for the fiscal year, trending towards the lower end of previously issued adjusted EBITDA guidance [30][33] - Management highlighted the importance of customer relationships and operational efficiency as key focus areas [8][32] Other Important Information - Capital expenditures for the quarter were $1.2 million, primarily related to the new ERP system [6][28] - Inventory increased to $85.8 million due to tariff mitigation strategies and preparation for forecasted sales increases [8][29] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide more details on the impact of purchase variance and amortization on gross margins? - The total increase to manufacturing costs was close to $3 million impacting adjusted EBITDA, with purchase variance estimated to have a 2-3 margin point impact [40][41] Question: What are the expectations for operating expenses moving forward? - Travel expenses were up significantly in Q1 but are expected to taper off, with additional measures in place to identify $4 million in cost savings [46][52] Question: How is the head-to-toe strategy progressing? - The company is seeing greater engagement and opportunities, particularly with larger clients, and is focused on bundling products for comprehensive offerings [55][60]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company achieved record net sales of $46.7 million, representing a 29% year-over-year increase, driven by a 100% increase in fire services products [4][15] - Consolidated gross margin decreased to 33.5% from 44.6% for the comparable period [15][19] - Net loss was $3.9 million or $0.41 per share, compared to net income of $1.7 million or $0.22 per share for the same period last year [16][21] - Adjusted EBITDA excluding FX was $600,000, a decrease of $3.2 million or 84% compared to the prior year [21][24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Fire services segment grew by 100% year-over-year, contributing $10.5 million to the revenue increase [17][27] - Organic revenue increased by $600,000 or 2% to $36.9 million, with strong growth in the U.S. and Europe, partially offset by declines in Latin America and Canada [18][26] - U.S. net sales increased 42% year-over-year to $22.5 million, with organic growth of $2.1 million or 15% [5][27] - European net sales increased 102% year-over-year to $12.1 million [5][26] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Latin American operations saw a 12% decrease in sales year-over-year, primarily due to shipment timing and tariff impacts [26][64] - Sales in Asia increased by 15% year-over-year, indicating positive growth in that region [26] - The company experienced lower sales in Canada and delays in Latin America due to tariff uncertainties [7][12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on accelerating growth within the fragmented $2 billion fire protection sector and enhancing customer relationships [4][8] - A new company-wide SAP ERP system is being implemented to modernize and consolidate operations [6][7] - The company aims to navigate tariff uncertainties while pursuing strategic acquisitions to consolidate the fragmented fire market [13][32] - Long-term strategies include growing both fire services and industrial PPE verticals while maintaining operational efficiencies [32][33] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in navigating tariff uncertainties and expects sequential growth in gross margins and adjusted EBITDA in the second quarter [9][13] - The company anticipates revenue between $210 million to $220 million for the fiscal year, trending towards the lower end of adjusted EBITDA guidance due to near-term order delays [30][33] - Management remains optimistic about the recovery of sales in higher-margin regions once tariff uncertainties subside [12][64] Other Important Information - Capital expenditures for the quarter were $1.2 million, primarily related to the new ERP system [6][29] - The company ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of approximately $18.6 million and long-term debt of $24.7 million [29] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you elaborate on the impact of purchase variance and amortization on gross margins? - The total increase to manufacturing costs was close to $3 million, significantly impacting adjusted EBITDA, with about a 1% impact on gross margins from purchase accounting [36][38][41] Question: What are the expectations for operating expenses moving forward? - Travel expenses were notably high in Q1 due to various events, but are expected to decrease. Increased SG&A was also attributed to higher labor costs and freight related to inventory movements [43][46][47] Question: How is the head-to-toe strategy progressing? - The company is seeing greater engagement and opportunities in the market, particularly with the glove strategy from the Meridian acquisition, and is focused on bundling products for comprehensive offerings [50][52][56] Question: What are the expectations for organic growth for the full year? - The company expects organic growth to remain in the high single digits, with strong growth in the U.S. offset by declines in Latin America and Canada [63][64] Question: Will the Jolly order be crucial for achieving revenue goals? - The Jolly order is important but not the sole determinant for revenue goals, with ongoing positive engagement with the Italian government regarding procurement [66][67] Question: What is the expected cadence for EBITDA improvement throughout the year? - Improvement is expected in the second quarter, with a gradual increase in EBITDA as inventory issues and cost containment efforts normalize [68][69]

Q1’26 Net Sales Increased 29% to a Record $46.7 Million Led by a 100% Increase in Fire Services Products, Representing 45% of Total Revenue U.S. Net Sales Increased 42% to $22.5 Million & Europe Net Sales Increased 102% to $12.1 Million Q1’26 Represented Full Impact of Tariff Uncertainty & Associated Mitigation Strategies to Build Inventory Improving Global Tariff Environment & Reduction in Mitigation Strategies Positions Company for Sequential Growth in Gross Margin and Adjusted EBITDA Excluding FX in Q2’ ...