Core Insights - The Chen Tian old renovation project in Baiyun District, Guangzhou, has officially launched with a new name "Yunshan Jing" and is being developed through a collaboration between the local government, Industrial Bank, Huafa Construction Management, and R&F Group [1][3]. Group 1: Project Overview - The project aims for high-quality and efficient development under government guidance, leveraging local development experience, state-owned enterprise quality control, and bank funding supervision [3]. - The total construction area of the project is approximately 2 million square meters, including 7 quality schools, over 500,000 square meters of commercial complexes, a central clubhouse, and sports parks [5]. Group 2: Partnerships and Roles - Industrial Bank plays a crucial role as a funding partner, ensuring strict and transparent fund supervision to guarantee the safety of homebuyer funds and timely delivery [3]. - R&F Group, with 31 years of experience in urban development, provides solid development support through its expertise in old renovation projects [3]. - Huafa Construction Management, backed by Huafa Group's state-owned strength, is responsible for project management and marketing, drawing on its experience from over 200 premium projects nationwide [3]. Group 3: Project Features and Amenities - The project is strategically located near the Guangzhou Baiyun Station, a major transportation hub with a total investment of 44 billion yuan, and is surrounded by extensive urban amenities [5]. - The newly named "Yunshan Jing" features five residential buildings designed to maximize views of the nearby Mount Moxing, with units ranging from approximately 120 to 190 square meters [5]. - Current amenities include a fully operational central clubhouse with a heated swimming pool, a central park under construction, and residential units that are ready for occupancy [5].

10 November 2025 | 2:10PM CST Equity Research CHINA PROPERTY Trip Takeaways: A Diverging Mosaic We toured around Shenzhen and Guangzhou last week to pulse-check on local property and broader consumer markets by visiting several developers and frontline residential projects sites, high-end mall operators, financial institutions, property managers, property agents and property/consumption-related divisions of tech companies. In general, we observed contrasting trends between high-end segment and the broader m ...

Infrastructure Development - Mumbai is undergoing a rapid transformation with a multi-billion dollar infrastructure blitz aimed at faster commutes and urban renewal [1] Urban Planning - The city is racing towards urban renewal [1]

Core Insights - The Fuzhou Land Development Center has announced the completion of project site selection for three land parcels, totaling an area of 295.28 acres [1][2]. Group 1: Land Parcel Details - The three land parcels include: - Kangshan Temple North Parcel, located in Jin'an District, with a site area of 55.88 acres [2]. - Guanwail Street Surrounding Parcel One, also in Jin'an District, with a site area of 234.23 acres [2]. - Guanwail Street Surrounding Parcel Two, in Jin'an District, with a site area of 5.17 acres [2]. Group 2: Land Use and Planning - The eight parcels involved in the planning have a total area of 13.68 hectares (205.20 acres), designated for commercial, residential, and educational purposes [3]. - The land use types include residential and commercial mixed-use, with varying average plot ratios and building height limits [3]. Group 3: Demolition and Relocation - The relocation area for the Guanwail Street surrounding parcels includes multiple residential complexes, affecting 3,592 households [4]. - The Kangshan Temple North Parcel involves the relocation of 225 households, with a completion rate of 99% for preliminary assessments as of September 26 [9]. Group 4: Cultural and Historical Context - Guanwail Street is noted for its cultural significance and is considered a beloved area for many residents, often associated with childhood memories and local cuisine [11]. - The announcement of the land selection and the issuance of demolition notices indicate the transformation of this historic area, marking the end of an era for the local community [12].

Summary of the Conference Call on China's Property Sector Industry Overview - **Industry**: China's Property Sector - **Focus**: Transformation and upgrade during the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) aimed at establishing a new development model to enhance living standards and stabilize the property market [1][7] Core Points and Arguments New Development Model - The property sector will transition from construction to providing full life-cycle property services, emphasizing quality over scale [1][9] - Key features include: - Establishing a three-pronged housing system: commodity housing for affordable buyers, rental housing for urban migrants, and social housing for low-income classes [1][9] - Optimizing production factors (people, housing, land, capital) through Hukou and land reforms [1][12] - Urban renewal initiatives to enhance city capacity and promote high-quality homes [1][9][23] Housing Supply and Demand - Land sales revenue is projected to stabilize at approximately RMB 4 trillion annually from 2026 to 2030, reducing local government reliance on land sales for fiscal revenue [1][2] - The government aims to increase annual investments in social housing and urban renewal to around RMB 0.9-1 trillion, with a focus on rectification and upgrades rather than full demolitions [2][50] - Supply-side measures include revitalizing existing lands, controlling new land supply, and enhancing the quality of property supply [3][26] Urbanization and Market Dynamics - Top-10 cities are expected to outperform in property sales, land sales, and rental markets due to urbanization and population concentration [4][65] - The new urbanization policy aims to reshape the value of satellite cities, enhancing their attractiveness through improved logistics and infrastructure [67] Policy Support and Financial Measures - The government is implementing supportive fiscal and monetary policies, including special bonds for social housing and urban renewal projects [68][71] - Local governments are encouraged to repurchase idle land and housing inventory to stimulate the market [68][69] Important but Overlooked Content - The shift in focus from "having a home" to "having a good home" reflects changing consumer preferences and the need for better living conditions [8][9] - The integration of building information modeling (BIM) technology and energy-saving innovations in housing construction is emphasized as part of promoting good-quality homes [24][23] - The expected decline in new supply due to the transition to selling completed properties may lead to cautious land purchases by property firms, impacting cash flow [22][21] Conclusion - The 15th Five-Year Plan outlines a comprehensive strategy for the transformation of China's property sector, focusing on quality, sustainability, and social equity. The emphasis on urban renewal, affordable housing, and policy support indicates a proactive approach to addressing the challenges faced by the industry.

Summary of the Conference Call on China Property Sector Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **China Property** sector, particularly the luxury home market and the performance of top-10 cities in 1H25 - Key trends indicate a shift towards recurring business operations and improving margins in the sector Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Sales Performance**: - Sales in top-10 cities increased by **4% year-on-year (yoy)**, contrasting with a **17% decline** in the overall sector [1][24] - Luxury home sales (priced over **Rmb10 million**) rose by **19% yoy** [1][30] - New sales gross profit margin (GPM) improved to **13-18%** from **12%** in 1H24 [3][33] 2. **Land Acquisition**: - **82%** of land purchases were concentrated in top-10 cities, indicating a strategic focus on core urban areas [4][27] - State-owned enterprises (SOEs) were particularly active, with land acquisitions up **120% yoy** in 1H25 [4] 3. **Financial Health**: - The sector reported a core loss of **Rmb69 billion** in 1H25, with mixed margins; GPM improved to **12.2%** but net profit margin (NPM) eroded to **-7%** [6] - Companies like **COLI** and **Poly** were the top land acquirers, indicating strong market positioning [3] 4. **Recurring Business Focus**: - Companies such as **COLI**, **SZI**, and **Jinmao** are shifting focus towards rentals and services, aiming for **10% rental growth** in FY25 [2] - Recurring profits for **CRL** and **Longfor** are projected to reach **Rmb12 billion** and **Rmb8 billion** respectively in FY25 [2] 5. **Policy Environment**: - Local governments are accelerating policy execution to stabilize the property market, including easing purchase restrictions in cities like **Shanghai** and **Beijing** [7][42] - The State Council has called for measures to solidify the stabilizing trend of the property market, emphasizing urban renewal [46] Additional Important Points 1. **Inventory Levels**: - Inventory of properties held for sale decreased by **3%** in 1H25, indicating a gradual reduction in excess supply [36] - The overall new home inventory area in key cities was down **17%** compared to historical highs [36] 2. **Market Outlook**: - The sector is expected to see a gradual recovery, particularly in top-10 cities, with **2-3 more cities** showing signs of recovery in 2H25 [23] - The anticipated sector correction in September is viewed as an opportunity to invest in quality property names [1] 3. **Top Picks**: - Recommended stocks include **Jinmao**, **C&D**, and **CR Land** for their strong market positions and growth potential [20][45] 4. **Challenges**: - Companies facing restructuring or significant asset write-downs are underperforming, highlighting the risks associated with the sector [12] 5. **Investment Strategy**: - Focus on luxury and quality products with active land purchases is recommended for partial recovery before earnings scale and return on equity (ROE) improve in 2H25 [14] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the China Property sector, highlighting both opportunities and risks for investors.

Core Insights - The urban renewal project in Sanyuanli Village, Guangzhou, has officially commenced after 25 years of planning, marking a significant milestone in the city's development [2][5] - The project involves a total investment exceeding 20 billion yuan, covering an area of approximately 71.45 hectares, and aims to enhance living conditions and urban infrastructure [5][6] Group 1: Project Overview - The Sanyuanli urban renewal project began on August 23, with the construction of resettlement housing and the demolition of the old village [2] - The project is strategically located near key transport hubs, including the Guangzhou Railway Station, and aims to alleviate traffic congestion through infrastructure upgrades [5] - The initiative has received strong community support, achieving a 95% consent rate for the redevelopment plan [5] Group 2: Development Strategy - The project will utilize a model of "legal expropriation, net land transfer, and government leadership," ensuring stable funding and reducing risks associated with developers' financial chains [6] - The first phase includes the construction of 594 resettlement units, with demolition and construction occurring simultaneously to ensure transparency and community engagement [6] - The urban renewal is not just about physical reconstruction but also aims to reorganize and regenerate urban functions, reflecting a broader trend in urban development [6]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an overall investment rating for the industry but highlights specific companies with "Buy" and "Sell" recommendations [49][50]. Core Insights - The primary market is experiencing a continued decline, with new home sales volume down 30% week-over-week and 26% year-over-year, while tier-3 and Central & Western cities are outperforming [5][9]. - Secondary market transactions are showing a slight decline, with average sales down 2% week-over-week and 3% year-over-year, indicating negative price appreciation expectations from agents and homeowners [26][28]. - The focus on urban renewal policies is expected to positively impact the market, particularly through demand-side stimulus measures such as urban village redevelopment [2]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - New homes sales volume decreased by 30% week-over-week and 26% year-over-year, with tier-3 and Central & Western cities outperforming [5]. - Secondary transactions were down 2% week-over-week and 3% year-over-year, with negative price expectations from agents and homeowners [26]. - Year-to-date, primary gross floor area (GFA) sold is down 1% year-over-year, while secondary GFA sold is up 16% year-over-year [8][28]. Inventory and Completions - Inventory balance decreased by 0.1% week-over-week and 3.9% from the end of 2024, with inventory months at 26.0 [36]. - Completions are expected to decline by mid-to-high teens year-over-year for June 2025, with a projected 10% decline for the full year [41]. Valuation and Developer Performance - Offshore developers saw an average share price increase of 6% week-over-week, outperforming the MSCI China index [49]. - Onshore developers averaged a 2% increase week-over-week, with specific companies like China Jinmao and Longfor receiving "Buy" ratings [49][50]. - The average price-to-book (P/B) ratio for offshore and onshore coverage is at 0.5X for 2025E, indicating a significant discount to net asset value (NAV) [49].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the urban renewal initiatives in Shandong, highlighting the transformation of old neighborhoods and districts into vibrant spaces that enhance residents' quality of life and attract tourism [2][4][7]. Group 1: Urban Renewal Initiatives - Shandong is accelerating urban renewal to optimize spatial layout and improve city functionality and quality, with initiatives like adding elevators to old buildings and creating pocket parks [2][4]. - The province has renovated 15,000 old neighborhoods, benefiting over 2.7 million households, and installed more than 8,000 elevators [4]. Group 2: Community Impact - The installation of elevators in older communities has significantly improved residents' daily lives, making it easier for elderly residents to access amenities [3][4]. - Community engagement was crucial in overcoming challenges related to elevator installation, leading to customized solutions that benefited all residents [3]. Group 3: Cultural and Historical Preservation - The historical cultural district in Qingdao has been revitalized, preserving traditional architecture while introducing modern amenities and diverse businesses [5][6]. - The district now hosts over 120 shops, enhancing the experience for both residents and tourists, with a projected visitor count exceeding 20 million by 2024 [6]. Group 4: Future Urban Development Plans - Shandong plans to focus on comprehensive area renovation, infrastructure development, and historical preservation as part of its ongoing urban renewal strategy [7]. - The province aims to establish a diversified investment mechanism to support these urban renewal actions, ensuring sustainable and high-quality urban development [7].

Financing Trends - In the first half of 2025, real estate financing continued to contract, with a total financing scale of 184.4 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 30% [1] - The second quarter saw financing of 100.4 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 19%, but a year-on-year decrease of 25%, remaining at historically low levels [1] - Non-bank financing remains on a downward trend, with many private real estate companies, especially distressed ones, facing significant financing difficulties [1] Bond Financing Costs - The cost of overseas bond financing in the first half of 2025 was 8.60%, with Green Town China issuing a 3.5 billion USD priority note at an interest rate of 8.45% and New Town Development issuing a 3 billion USD bond at 11.88% [3] - Domestic bond financing costs decreased to 2.71%, down 0.2 percentage points from the entire year of 2024, primarily due to a loosening monetary environment and the predominance of state-owned and high-quality private enterprises in bond issuance [3] - The overall new bond financing cost for the first half of 2025 was 3.28% [3] Debt Maturity and Pressure - In 2024, the maturity scale of real estate company bonds reached 482.9 billion, while the issuance scale was only 220.9 billion, indicating an inability to cover maturing debts through new borrowing [4] - The debt maturity scale for 2025 is projected to be even higher at 532.7 billion, with the third quarter being a peak period for debt repayment, amounting to approximately 160 billion [4] - Continued low sales in the market may lead to further defaults for companies that have already undergone debt restructuring [4] Industry Recovery and New Models - Two key factors for breaking the current industry deadlock are the complete clearing of risks and the identification of new sustainable development models [5] - Significant progress in debt restructuring has been observed in the first half of 2025, with cases like Xie Xin Yuan Chuang and Jin Ke Co., Ltd. completing judicial restructuring, providing a replicable model for other distressed companies [5] - The government has emphasized the need to explore new real estate development models, with urban renewal being a crucial focus, as indicated by various policy announcements aimed at stabilizing the housing market and improving housing quality [6] Urban Renewal Initiatives - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has committed to advancing urban renewal and ensuring the completion of housing projects, with a focus on transforming old urban areas and improving living conditions [6] - By April 2025, 5,679 old urban community renovation projects had commenced nationwide, with several regions exceeding a 50% commencement rate [6] - The ongoing urban renewal efforts are expected to provide more development opportunities for capable real estate companies, encouraging them to enhance housing quality and competitiveness [6]