关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 7 . 2 6 - 8 . 1 周度研究成果 2 0 2 5 申 万 宏 源 宏 观 研 究 团 队 目录 热点思考 高频跟踪 1、汇率双周报 | 政治漩涡中的"弱势"日元？ 2、热点思考 | 反内卷，破局的"妙招"有哪些？ 3、热点思考 | 反内卷：为何需关注地方政府？ 1、财政支出提速能否持续？-6月财政数据点评 2、育儿补贴落地，影响几何？ 电话会议 热点思考 1 汇率双周报 | 政治漩涡中的"弱势"日元？ 点击看全文 热点思考 2025.7.28 6月以来，日元弱势的原因、后续可能的演绎。 2 热点思考 | 反内卷 破局的"妙招"有哪些？ 点击看全文 3、利润修复的"起点"？ ——6月工业企业效益数据点评 4、"十五五"启幕，蓝图绘新篇——7月中央政治局会议学习理解 5、7月PMI：反内卷的"悖论"？ 6、海外高频｜美日关税协议达成，发达市场多数上涨 7、国内高频 | 港口货运量仍较强 8、政策高频 | 价格法修正草案公开征求意见 9、Top Charts | 两张"反对票"——7月FOMC例会点评与展望 1、 "周见系列" 第41期:《美元大趋势》 2、 "洞见系列" ...

Group 1: Policy Overview - The implementation of the childcare subsidy policy aligns with expectations, shifting investment focus from material to human capital[3] - The annual subsidy amount is estimated to exceed 100 billion, significantly impacting consumer spending through a multiplier effect[5] Group 2: Significance of Childcare Subsidies - The policy aims to reduce childcare costs, thereby increasing the willingness of residents to have children[4] - It is expected to enhance disposable income, positively influencing consumption levels[4] - The signal of "investing in people" suggests increased fiscal spending on housing, elderly care, and education[4] Group 3: Funding Sources and Strategies - Funding may primarily come from general public budget expenditures and reforms linking state-owned assets, finance, and social security[6][15] - Investment strategies should align with population trends, focusing on infrastructure in areas with population inflows and enhancing support for education and healthcare[6][14] Group 4: Comprehensive Measures - Additional measures are needed to alleviate the financial burden of education and childcare, such as subsidies for early education and after-school care[16] - Adjustments to housing security and personal income tax deductions based on the number of children are recommended[16] - Policies should ensure that maternity and paternity leave do not lead to workplace discrimination, with incentives for companies that comply[16]

育儿也有"国补"了。 《育儿补贴制度实施方案》明确，自2025年1月1日起，对合法生育3岁以下的婴幼儿发放补贴，至其年 满3周岁。补贴按年发放，每孩每年3600元。 同时，对于2025年1月1日之前出生且未满3周岁的婴幼儿，按应补贴月数折算计发。这意味着，3岁以下 的婴幼儿最多可领取为期三年、总额1.08万元的育儿补贴。 方案同时明确，育儿补贴覆盖所有合法生育的一孩、二孩、三孩家庭。同时，该补贴免征个人所得税且 不计入低保、特困等家庭收入认定。 国家卫健委人口家庭司司长王海东在国新办新闻发布会上表示，我国每年的出生人口中，一半以上是一 孩，将一孩纳入补贴范围能够全面惠及育儿家庭。此外，给一孩发放育儿补贴，可以减轻家庭的养育压 力，有利于家庭的再生育考虑。 事实上，目前全国已有20余省份在不同层级探索发放育儿补贴。那么，国家为什么选择在此时间点出台 政策？补贴力度是高是低？实施过程中，国家和地方的补贴叠加能达到什么样的效果？ 对此，时代周报记者专访了国家发展改革委社会发展研究所研究员张本波。他认为，低生育率是我国长 期面临的重大挑战，而影响生育意愿的重要因素在于经济压力大。 时代周报：国家补贴基础标准为每孩每年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The direct cash child-rearing subsidy represents a clear stance and is just the beginning of addressing the high costs associated with raising children in China [10]. Summary by Sections National Child-Rearing Costs - The annual child-rearing subsidy of 3,600 yuan is insufficient when compared to the average cost of raising a child to university, which exceeds 500,000 yuan, making the subsidy only about 2% of total costs over 18 years [3]. - For the first three years of a child's life, the costs amount to over 10,000 yuan, which represents nearly 15% of the total expenses [3]. Breakdown of Child-Rearing Costs - The average costs for raising a child from 0 to 17 years in China total 538,312 yuan, with significant expenses in various stages: - Pregnancy: 10,000 yuan (1.86%) - Delivery and postpartum care: 15,000 yuan (2.79%) - 0-2 years: 73,614 yuan (13.67% per year) - 3-5 years: 109,614 yuan (20.36% per year) - 6-14 years: 243,063 yuan (45.15% per year) - 15-17 years: 87,021 yuan (16.17% per year) [4]. International Comparison - China's child-rearing costs are among the highest globally, with a ratio of 6.3 times the per capita GDP, second only to South Korea [6]. Local Subsidy Initiatives - Local governments have previously implemented various child-rearing subsidies, such as in Hohhot, where families can receive up to 160,000 yuan for multiple children, significantly impacting local birth rates [7]. - The recent national subsidy is a baseline that local governments can exceed, potentially increasing financial support for families [7]. Future Implications - The projected cost of the subsidy could reach approximately 1 trillion yuan annually if the birth rate remains around 25 million over the next three years [8]. - Addressing the challenges of child-rearing will require more than just financial support; adjustments in maternity leave, reproductive technologies, and educational timelines are also necessary [10].

作者 | 第 一财经 陈益刊 近期国家出台《育儿补贴制度实施方案》（下称《方案》），自2025年1月1日起，对3岁以下婴幼 儿发放育儿补贴，补贴标准为每孩每年3600元（即每月300元）。这意味着2022年1月1日以后出 生的符合条件的婴幼儿，都可以领取育儿补贴。按照官方工作计划，各地将在8月下旬陆续开放育儿 补贴申领，8月31日前各地全面开放育儿补贴的申领。 育儿补贴是新中国成立以来首次大范围、普惠式、直接性向群众发放的民生保障现金补贴，是一项惠 民利民的重大举措。为了确保政策落地，育儿补贴资金如何安排备受关注。 2025.07. 31 本文字数：2395，阅读时长大约4分钟 郭阳介绍，近期，财政部将会同国家卫生健康委印发育儿补贴补助资金管理办法，明确资金分配使用 和管理监督的具体要求，细化规范资金下达流程，落实各级工作责任。两部门将对补助资金实行全过 程预算绩效管理，做好绩效监控和绩效评价，确保管好用好财政资金。 根据国家统计局，目前统计中所涉及东部、中部、西部和东北地区的具体划分为：东部地区包括北 京、天津、河北、上海、江苏、浙江、福建、山东、广东和海南10省（市）；中部地区包括山西、 安徽、江西、河南 ...

近期国家出台《育儿补贴制度实施方案》（下称《方案》），自2025年1月1日起，对3岁以下婴幼儿发 放育儿补贴，补贴标准为每孩每年3600元（即每月300元）。这意味着2022年1月1日以后出生的符合条 件的婴幼儿，都可以领取育儿补贴。按照官方工作计划，各地将在8月下旬陆续开放育儿补贴申领，8月 31日前各地全面开放育儿补贴的申领。 育儿补贴是新中国成立以来首次大范围、普惠式、直接性向群众发放的民生保障现金补贴，是一项惠民 利民的重大举措。为了确保政策落地，育儿补贴资金如何安排备受关注。 近日财政部社会保障司司长郭阳在国新办发布会上介绍，按照《方案》部署，中央财政将设立共同财政 事权转移支付项目"育儿补贴补助资金"，今年初步安排预算900亿元左右。对于发放国家基础标准补贴 所需资金，中央财政按照一定比例对地方予以补助，中央总体承担约90%。这既体现了中央对这项工作 的高度重视和对地方的大力支持，也有利于进一步夯实地方管理责任。 这与市场预期相符。多家券商机构根据出生人口及补贴标准测算，每年发放的育儿补贴介于1000亿元 ~1200亿元。 粤开证券首席经济学家罗志恒告诉第一财经，此次育儿补贴资金中央与地方按照东、 ...

1000亿元左右育儿补贴资金，中央财政出900亿元左右，地方财政出100亿元左右，且中央补贴资金向西 部地区倾斜，减轻基层财政负担 近期国家出台《育儿补贴制度实施方案》（下称《方案》），自2025年1月1日起，对3岁以下婴幼儿发 放育儿补贴，补贴标准为每孩每年3600元（即每月300元）。这意味着2022年1月1日以后出生的符合条 件的婴幼儿，都可以领取育儿补贴。按照官方工作计划，各地将在8月下旬陆续开放育儿补贴申领，8月 31日前各地全面开放育儿补贴的申领。 育儿补贴是新中国成立以来首次大范围、普惠式、直接性向群众发放的民生保障现金补贴，是一项惠民 利民的重大举措。为了确保政策落地，育儿补贴资金如何安排备受关注。 近日财政部社会保障司司长郭阳在国新办发布会上介绍，按照《方案》部署，中央财政将设立共同财政 事权转移支付项目"育儿补贴补助资金"，今年初步安排预算900亿元左右。对于发放国家基础标准补贴 所需资金，中央财政按照一定比例对地方予以补助，中央总体承担约90%。这既体现了中央对这项工作 的高度重视和对地方的大力支持，也有利于进一步夯实地方管理责任。 而根据《方案》，中央财政对发放国家基础标准育儿补贴所需 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soda ash, the supply is expected to remain ample, demand will continue to decline, and prices will face continuous pressure. It's recommended to short the soda ash main contract on rallies, and the current decline might not end [2]. - For glass, the probability of a correction has increased, but the decline is expected to be limited. It's also recommended to short on rallies [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Soda ash main - contract closing price is 1,247 yuan/ton, down 64 yuan; glass main - contract closing price is 1,117 yuan/ton, down 74 yuan [2]. - Soda ash main - contract trading volume is 974,024 lots, down 109,991 lots; glass main - contract trading volume is 142,138 lots [2]. - Soda ash top 20 net long position is - 344,377 lots, down 14,009 lots; glass top 20 net long position is - 215,547 lots, down 19,125 lots [2]. - Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts are 1,500 tons, up 145 tons; glass exchange warehouse receipts are 0 tons [2]. - Soda ash September - January contract spread is - 83 yuan, up 6 yuan; glass September - January contract spread is - 129 yuan, down 4 yuan [2]. - Soda ash basis is - 11 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; glass basis is 1 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash is 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China heavy soda ash is 1,375 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - East China light soda ash is 1,325 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China light soda ash is 1,275 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Shahe glass sheets are 1,192 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China glass sheets are 1,230 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate is 83.02%, down 1.08 percentage points; float - glass enterprise operating rate is 75%, down 0.34 percentage points [2]. - Glass in - production capacity is 15.89 million tons/year, up 0.11 million tons; glass in - production line number is 223, unchanged [2]. - Soda ash enterprise inventory is 1.7836 million tons, down 81,000 tons; glass enterprise inventory is 61.896 million weight boxes, down 3.043 million weight boxes [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - Cumulative real - estate new construction area is 303.6432 million square meters, up 71.8071 million square meters; cumulative real - estate completion area is 225.6661 million square meters, up 41.8147 million square meters [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Multiple important meetings and events took place, including the Politburo meeting, the meeting between Wang Yi and the US - China Business Council delegation, etc. Also, the central government will set up a "child - rearing subsidy fund" with a preliminary budget of about 90 billion yuan this year [2]. 3.6 Viewpoint Summary - Soda ash: Supply is ample, demand will decline, and prices will be under pressure. The decline is not over, and it's recommended to short on rallies [2]. - Glass: Supply shows signs of rigid production, and the industry profit has improved. However, the real - estate situation is not optimistic, and the probability of a correction has increased. It's recommended to short on rallies, but the decline amplitude is expected to be limited [2].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a collective decline, particularly in the consumer sector, with significant trading activity in the Consumer ETF (159928) which saw a drop of over 2% and a trading volume exceeding 700 million yuan [1][3]. Group 1: Consumer ETF Performance - The Consumer ETF (159928) recorded a net subscription of over 650 million units, marking its sixth consecutive day of inflow, totaling over 1 billion yuan [1]. - The latest scale of the Consumer ETF (159928) surpassed 12.6 billion yuan, leading its peers significantly [1]. - Major constituent stocks of the Consumer ETF mostly declined, with Shanxi Fenjiu and Luzhou Laojiao dropping over 3%, and Wuliangye falling over 2% [3]. Group 2: Policy and Economic Support - An important meeting emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability, with a focus on enhancing fiscal and monetary policies to boost consumption and support small businesses [5]. - The government plans to implement a child-rearing subsidy program with a budget of approximately 90 billion yuan, aimed at increasing consumer demand and improving living standards [5][6]. - The child-rearing subsidy will be available for families with children under three years old, with an annual subsidy of 3,600 yuan per child [7][8]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The implementation of the child-rearing subsidy is expected to alleviate family financial burdens and stimulate consumption in related sectors such as baby care, dairy products, toys, and children's clothing [8]. - Long-term, the subsidy and related services are anticipated to enhance birth rates and support industries linked to maternal and child care, including reproductive assistance and education [8]. - The Consumer ETF (159928) is characterized by its resilience across economic cycles, with top ten constituent stocks accounting for over 68% of its weight, including leading liquor brands and major agricultural firms [9].

Core Points - The national childcare subsidy scheme will provide 3,600 yuan per child annually until the child reaches three years old, starting from January 1, 2025 [1] - The policy will also apply to infants born before January 1, 2025, who are under three years old [1] Summary by Category Subsidy Details - Each child will receive an annual subsidy of 3,600 yuan until the age of three, benefiting all children regardless of whether they are the first, second, or third child [1] - The subsidy aims to reduce the costs associated with childbirth, upbringing, and education through various channels [1] Tax and Leave Policies - Childcare costs for children under three will be included in the personal income tax special additional deductions, with a monthly deduction standard raised to 2,000 yuan per child [1] - Maternity leave has been extended to 158 days or more in most provinces, with around 15 days of paternity leave and 5-20 days of parental leave established [1] Economic Impact - The childcare subsidy is expected to create a consumption multiplier effect, despite being slightly lower in scale compared to traditional national subsidies [1] - In 2024, the total sales revenue of large-scale dairy enterprises in China reached 510.5 billion yuan, indicating that the subsidy is approaching the annual support scale of some traditional consumer sectors [1] - The government previously supported consumption through 150 billion yuan in special long-term bonds for the automotive and home appliance sectors, which increased to 300 billion yuan in 2025, highlighting significant consumption stimulation [1]