Gold prices slipped in early trading as investors booked profits ahead of key U.S. data that could provide cues on the Federal Reserve's policy path next year.Futures in New York fell 0.7% to $4,305 a troy ounce, though prices remain near October's record highs supported by expectations of further easing and sustained investor demand.New York Fed President John Williams this week struck a balanced tone in his remarks following the Federal Open Market Committee decision, saying monetary policy is well placed ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference focused on the macroeconomic outlook for Asia excluding Japan, with insights gathered from seminars held in Singapore and Hong Kong in December 2025 [2][4]. Economic Outlook - **US Monetary Policy**: A majority of respondents (64% in Singapore and 69% in Hong Kong) expect 2-3 Federal Reserve rate cuts by the end of 2026, which is lower than the market's pricing of approximately 90 basis points [5][6]. - **China PPI Inflation**: About 91% of respondents anticipate that China's Producer Price Index (PPI) will remain in deflation in 2026, with expectations of improvement to between -1.0% and -2.0% from -2.8% year-on-year in the first 10 months of 2025 [5][8]. - **Japan's Monetary Policy**: Nearly all respondents believe that the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) hiking cycle is not over, with a plurality expecting 1-2 more hikes to a terminal rate of 0.75-1.00% [5][12]. - **India's Monetary Policy**: Views are mixed; 49% in Singapore think the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has completed its easing cycle, while 43% in Hong Kong expect at least two more rate cuts [5][13]. - **Bank of Korea (BOK) Outlook**: A majority (58% in Singapore and 61% in Hong Kong) agree that the BOK will maintain an extended hold through the end of 2026 [5][16]. - **ASEAN Growth from China Transshipments**: 74% of Hong Kong respondents and 35% of Singapore respondents believe Vietnam will benefit the most from China's transshipment of US-destined exports, despite narrowing tariff gaps [5][22]. Market Strategy - **FX Expectations**: 57% of respondents expect the DXY to decrease in the next six months, with a notable divide between Singapore (57% expecting an increase) and Hong Kong (65% expecting a decrease) [21][26]. - **Rates Strategy**: Singapore swaps were the most favored (50%) among Singapore respondents, while Korea swaps were preferred by 44% of Hong Kong respondents [21][32]. - **Equity Market Performance**: 33% of respondents expect China/Hang Seng to be the best-performing equity market by Q1 2026, closely followed by Japan/TOPIX at 31% [21][33]. - **Credit Preferences**: Both Singapore and Hong Kong respondents showed a strong preference for Asian Additional Tier 1 (AT1) credits for H1 2026, with 44% and 33% respectively [21][36]. Additional Insights - The conference highlighted differing regional perspectives, particularly in monetary policy expectations and market performance forecasts, indicating a complex economic landscape in Asia [5][21]. - The data reflects a cautious optimism among investors regarding potential rate cuts and economic recovery, particularly in China and Japan, while also recognizing the risks associated with inflation and monetary policy shifts [5][6][21].

Getting some breaking news out of the Fed this morning. We'll turn to Steve Leeman with that who's also got a piece on the wires. Now, Steve, that's [music] uh pretty interesting.We'll get you the Williams headlines first, though. >> Yeah. John Williams, New York, Fed President, saying monetary policy is well positioned as we head into 2026.That is language the Fed chair used at the meeting recently that people took to say the Fed was on hold, but not entirely clear. This is where Williams is headed. He say ...

Getting some breaking news out of the Fed this morning. We'll turn to Steve Leeman with that who's also got a piece on the wires. Now, Steve, that's [music] uh pretty interesting.We'll get you the Williams headlines first, though. >> Yeah. John Williams, New York, Fed President, saying monetary policy is well positioned as we head into 2026.That is language the Fed chair used at the meeting recently that people took to say the Fed was on hold, but not entirely clear. This is where Williams is headed. He say ...

Key Takeaways from CEWC Readout — Cushion, Don't Lift Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Economics** sector, providing insights into the macroeconomic environment and policy direction for 2026. Core Insights and Arguments - **GDP Forecast**: The 2026 GDP forecast remains unchanged at **4.8% real** and approximately **4.1% nominal**. The emphasis is on "less deflation, not reflation" [5] - **Fiscal Policy**: The initial fiscal envelope is flat compared to 2025, with a front-loaded issuance strategy allowing for a potential **0.5 percentage point** GDP top-up midyear [5] - **Monetary Policy**: A dovish bias is indicated, with limited interest rate cuts expected in the range of **10–20 basis points** [5] - **Growth Drivers**: Public capital expenditure and urban renewal, along with advancements in AI and green transitions, are identified as key growth anchors. However, private capital expenditure remains weak [5] - **Housing Market**: There are plans for inventory buy-ups and mortgage subsidies, likely through reforms in the provident fund, though the specifics regarding scope, size, and duration are unclear [5] - **Anti-involution Measures**: A stronger push towards a unified national market, state-owned enterprise (SOE) reform, and stricter subsidy regulations are noted, although execution challenges are anticipated [5] - **Policy Style**: The approach is characterized by cushioning rather than lifting, focusing on continuity rather than a pivot in policy [5] - **Supply and Demand Mix**: The current policy mix remains supply-centric with a slight nudge towards demand, emphasizing the need to "expand domestic demand + optimize supply" [5] - **Consumption Initiatives**: Ongoing goods trade-in programs and vague plans for service vouchers and social welfare support are highlighted, with a watch on developments in the second half of the year [5] - **2026 Outlook**: The year is expected to be a "slow burn" with small, reactive policy steps aimed at stabilizing activity and prices [5] - **Base Toolkit**: The toolkit includes front-loaded infrastructure investments via local government special bonds, housing guardrails with optional mortgage interest subsidies, and selective service consumption adjustments in the latter half of 2026 [5] - **Execution Watchpoints**: Key areas to monitor include the pace of fiscal issuance, design of mortgage subsidies, inventory purchase mechanisms, and progress on anti-involution and market unification efforts [5] Additional Important Points - The report emphasizes the importance of execution in fiscal and monetary policies, indicating that the effectiveness of these measures will be critical in achieving the desired economic outcomes [5] - The overall sentiment reflects a cautious optimism, with a focus on gradual improvements rather than aggressive policy shifts [5]

Real Estate as an Inflation Hedge - Real estate serves as a hedge against inflation, with rising costs of raw materials and labor increasing the price of new properties, subsequently driving up the value of existing real estate [1] - The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index has increased by over 50% in the last five years, indicating significant appreciation in property values [5] Investment Strategies - Elon Musk has advocated for owning physical assets like real estate or stocks during high inflation periods, suggesting that these investments are preferable to holding cash [1][2] - Crowdfunding platforms such as Arrived and Mogul allow average Americans to invest in rental properties with lower capital requirements and without the burdens of property management [7][8] Economic Commentary - Milton Friedman attributed inflation primarily to excessive government spending and money creation, emphasizing that inflation is fundamentally a product of government actions [3] - The inflation rate peaked at 9.1% in June 2022, marking a 40-year high, driven by factors such as increased consumer spending and supply chain disruptions [4] Stock Market Insights - Billionaires have seen their wealth increase by $3.3 trillion since 2020, growing at a rate three times faster than inflation, largely due to their investments in companies that can pass on costs to consumers [13][14] - Trading platforms like Public enable everyday investors to buy fractional shares, making stock market participation more accessible [15]

Austan Goolsbee, President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, speaks to the Economic Club of New York in New York City, U.S., April 10, 2025.Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee on Friday explained why he voted against this week's interest rate cut, saying policymakers should have waited until they had more information before easing further."While I voted to lower rates at the September and October meetings, I believe we should have waited to get more data, especially about inflati ...

Richard Clar is here, former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve and global ep e e e e e e e e e e e e e e e e e e e economic adviser at PINCO. Thanks Rich for coming in. Um yeah, glad to be here.>> And I was going to start with a half empty half full analysis. So if if JPAL on the one hand says man um we look at at what's going on and we're worried about inflation and we're worried about uh the jobs market. This is a really complicated time for monetary policy.That's the half empty. the half full is, you ...

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at zero for the second consecutive time, aligning with expectations from economists surveyed by Bloomberg [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Decisions - The SNB's decision to keep the interest rate unchanged reflects a slight decline in inflation over recent months, with the central bank aiming to ensure a gradual rise in inflation over the coming quarters [1] - The SNB has revised its inflation forecasts downward, lowering the 2026 inflation expectation from 0.5% to 0.3% and the 2027 expectation from 0.7% to 0.6% [1] Group 2: Currency and Economic Impact - Following the SNB's announcement, the Swiss Franc continued its upward trend, appreciating by 0.1% against the Euro to 0.9346 and by 0.2% against the US Dollar to 0.7985, reaching its highest level since November 18 [2] - The strong Swiss Franc is a key factor suppressing inflation, as currency appreciation reduces import costs, exerting downward pressure on domestic prices [6] - Recent optimism regarding a trade agreement between Switzerland and the US has catalyzed the Franc's strength, alleviating trade uncertainties and contributing to its appreciation [6] Group 3: Economic Growth and Inflation Outlook - The SNB has adjusted its economic growth forecast for 2025 to "around 1%", a more optimistic outlook compared to the previous prediction of "slightly below 1%" [6] - The inflation rate in Switzerland has remained below market expectations for three consecutive months, with November's inflation rate slowing to zero, contradicting the SNB's earlier predictions of a rebound in inflation this quarter [6] Group 4: Policy Challenges - The SNB faces a challenging policy trade-off between persistent weak price prospects and the structural risks associated with reintroducing negative interest rates, which have previously harmed the pension system, savers' interests, and financial stability [7] - External pressures may arise from the recent 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, potentially narrowing interest rate differentials and exacerbating risks of Swiss Franc appreciation and deflation [7] - The recent rise in global bond yields and uncertainties regarding US policy paths may provide the SNB with some leeway in managing cross-border capital flows [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its current interest rate stance for the foreseeable future, with potential for a 25 basis point cut in January due to ongoing labor market softness and uncertainty surrounding economic data releases [1][1][1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Current Position - The Fed's guidance is less reliable regarding interest rate outlook due to limited economic data availability caused by the shutdown [1][1] - The upcoming change in Fed leadership in May 2026 may influence future monetary policy decisions, potentially leading to more significant rate cuts than currently indicated [1][1][1] Group 2: Economic Growth and Monetary Policy - The Fed has raised its growth expectations for the next year, which, combined with increased cash flow to households from tax policy changes, complicates the monetary policy outlook [1][1] - This shift in economic dynamics raises the threshold for any potential rate cuts at the Fed's next meeting in January [1][1]