Treasuries rose as strong retail sales didn’t shake bets that the Fed will start cutting rates to support the labor market https://t.co/SxkiZF95Dl ...

RT THE HUNTER ✴️ (@TrueGemHunter)The most important #FOMC meeting of the year in just 1 day and a few hours.Will they cut rates by 25 or 50 bps ...

Federal Reserve and Economic Projections - The Senate confirmed Stephen Meyer as a temporary Fed member, raising concerns about potential conflicts of interest due to his dual role in the White House [2][3] - The market is currently pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut, with speculation about a possible 50 basis point cut depending on economic projections [4][6] - The summary of economic projections will be crucial in determining future rate movements and inflation expectations [5][8] Market Reactions and Trends - Equity markets are moving higher as yields on 10-year, 20-year, and 30-year bonds decline, indicating a favorable rate environment [6][7] - The dollar is weakening, reaching its lowest point since July, which typically signals aggressive rate cuts [7] - Gold prices are hitting record highs, driven by its role as an inflation hedge and the ongoing purchases by central banks [10][11] Labor Market and Inflation Concerns - There are concerns about labor market weakness, which may influence the Fed's decisions moving forward [20] - The potential for persistent inflation remains, with wage growth needing to outpace inflation for positive economic outcomes [15][16] Oracle and TikTok Deal Speculation - Oracle's stock is experiencing upward momentum due to speculation about its involvement in a potential TikTok deal, positioning it as a key player in US-China trade discussions [26][28] - Other social media stocks, such as Meta, are not facing significant downward pressure, indicating a broader market optimism [29]

Canadian underlying price pressures eased, even as the headline rate quickened slightly, clearing the way for the central bank to resume cutting interest rates this week https://t.co/R0pIvT5BDY ...

The most important #FOMC meeting of the year in just 1 day and a few hours.Will they cut rates by 25 or 50 bps ...

Trade & Tariffs - The US bond market is performing well due to revenue from tariffs, expected to bring in hundreds of billions of dollars this year to pay down the debt [26] - Chinese exports to the US are down approximately 14%, while exports to Europe are up approximately 6.9% [51] - The US trade deficit with China is expected to narrow by at least 30% this year and potentially more in 2026 [52] Federal Reserve & Monetary Policy - A 25 basis point rate cut is priced in [14] - The market is pricing in 75 basis points in rate cuts between now and the end of the year [18] - The Fed has an employment and growth mandate, with the dollar being a byproduct [8] - The President believes the Fed has been behind the curve [13][15] TikTok Deal & National Security - A framework for a deal regarding TikTok has been reached, with President Trump and party chair Xi expected to agree on a final deal [29][32] - The deal includes safeguards for US national security and the interests of citizens, especially children [37] - The Chinese government's approval is needed for the deal between ByteDance and new investors [37] Deregulation & Economic Growth - The US market is responding positively to President Trump's agenda, particularly non-inflationary growth and deregulation [23] - The administration aims to cut through the regulatory morass surrounding American businesses [23] - Deregulation is seen as crucial for the US to become an AI superpower and energy dominant [24]

Core Insights - The Zelman Housing Summit has evolved from a focus on residential housing to include multifamily, GSEs, labor, and land issues [3] - Interest rates were a major topic, with the 10-year yield dropping unexpectedly, leading to discussions about future rate cuts and their limited impact on long-term rates [4][5][6] - The future of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is uncertain, with concerns about their management and potential privatization [7][8][9] - A land crisis is identified as a significant issue for builders, with calls for more land entitlements and easing of zoning restrictions [11][12] - Labor shortages are a pressing concern, exacerbated by fears of ICE raids, highlighting the need for a healthy immigration policy [13][14][15] Interest Rates - The 10-year yield dropped to 4.01%, surprising industry experts [5] - Historical analysis indicates that rate cuts during recessions lower long-term yields, but cuts outside of recessions have little effect [5][6] - Expectations for at least two 25 basis point cuts in the near future, but limited impact on long-term rates anticipated [6] Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac - The future of GSEs is critical for builders, with uncertainty surrounding potential actions from the Trump administration [7] - Fannie and Freddie provided liquidity during periods when banks were less active in lending [7] - Concerns about management and governance of Fannie and Freddie, with comparisons to WeWork's governance issues [8][9] Land Issues - A statement from industry leaders indicates a land crisis rather than a housing crisis, emphasizing the need for more land entitlements [11] - Suggestions for the Trump administration to facilitate land access and ease zoning restrictions [11][12] Labor Challenges - Labor shortages are a significant barrier to construction, with smaller builders particularly affected by fears of ICE raids [13] - Public builders report overall labor shortages, despite not facing major issues with ICE raids [14] - Advocacy for a healthy immigration policy to support labor needs in the construction industry [15]

Core Insights - U.S. consumers are experiencing increased financial stress due to inflation and higher interest rates, leading to a slight dip in the national FICO score by about 2 points [1] - The percentage of the population scoring between 600 and 749 points has decreased from 38.1% in 2021 to 33.8% in 2025 [1][2] Group 1: Consumer Credit Health - Gen Z adults have seen the sharpest decline in credit scores, primarily due to pressures from student loans [2] - Student loan delinquencies have reached a record high, with over 10% of 21 million monitored customers falling behind on payments [2] - Despite some banks reporting that consumers are in good financial health, there are signs of a cooling job market [3] Group 2: Average Credit Score - The average credit score remains strong at 715, near historical highs, indicating overall credit health [4] - The average FICO score is considered a lagging indicator of credit health, suggesting potential risks to future credit scores [4]

Joining us now with the latest on trade talks, uh the future of Tik Tok and more, Treasury Secretary Scott Besson. Mr. . Secretary, uh it's good to have you on up.Even I can figure out where you are from that backdrop, Joe. Good to see you. Good to be here in London.And it's good to have you on. So we I I think you got obviously you have an earpiece in. So you heard what was in our headlines.We can Let's just go in order. um and talk about some of the things with uh with Steve Meyer that that we talk about ...

Core Viewpoint - President Trump's actions are perceived as attempts to limit or eliminate the Federal Reserve's independence, which could lead to weaker economic growth, higher inflation, and increased unemployment [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - 82% of respondents believe Trump's actions are aimed at limiting the Fed's independence [1] - 41% of economists and strategists think the actions are directly aimed at eliminating the Fed's independence, while another 41% believe they are designed to limit it [2] - A majority (68%) expect upward pressure on inflation due to the president's actions [4] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Respondents forecast a decline in the Fed Funds rate from 4.38% to 3.66% this year, reflecting three quarter-point cuts [7] - The probability of a recession has increased to 40%, with 55% anticipating a moderate recession lasting about 10 months [8] - The growth outlook remains unchanged at 1.5% for 2025, with a rebound to 2% in 2026 [8] Group 3: Tariffs and Inflation - 86% of respondents expect price increases due to tariffs, with half believing substantial increases are forthcoming [9] - The average respondent estimates that 31% of the tariff burden is borne by consumers, contradicting the administration's claims [9] - Tariffs are viewed as the primary threat to economic expansion, followed by uncertainty around the administration's policies [10]